| To: Big Dog who started this subject | 10/4/2003 10:56:21 AM | | From: quehubo | | | | Robry's projection of 85-90 bcf injection should be scaring the hell out of everyone.
We averaged 50 TDD per week over 4 weeks with an average of 100 bcfpw injections. Very little deviation between TDD and injections.
Now we see TDD close to 80 and we should be seeing an injection closer to 50-60 bcf.
Now I see my weather forecast just go very bullish on the 7-14 period which over the last few days has rolled from above normal- to normal - to below normal now.
A good assessment of his injection data compared to HDD is possible before next weeks EIA report. If the trend continues I would be very careful. |
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| To: quehubo who wrote (26123) | 10/4/2003 11:07:00 AM | | From: russwinter | | | | <Robry's projection of 85-90 bcf injection should be scaring the hell out of everyone.>
Here's my food for thought on this, posted at the "Robry thread". Go ahead and shoot some holes in it please, as it's only money at stake <g>.
post.messages.yahoo.com
BTW on my point about non-heating and cooling electrical use, think that makes the shoulder NG futures (April, May, June, 2004) too cheap right now. |
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| To: russwinter who wrote (26124) | 10/4/2003 11:31:21 AM | | From: quehubo | | | | Russ - I dont think NG prices will stay below residual plus 5-10%.
I manage one of these new technology plants and have a inside view on the industry. It does not matter how many billions of dollars are invested in these new plants if there is little demand for their NG fired electricity. All the excess generation capacity did not help us this Summer because it operated very little.
I dont think the bottom side risk is high over the next 6 months, but I unless the weather stays well below normal for the next 4-8 weeks we wont be moving up much either.
But who knows I am about 55% invested and could be 125% invested in about 2 minutes. |
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| To: quehubo who wrote (26125) | 10/4/2003 11:59:13 AM | | From: russwinter | | | | <little demand for their NG fired electricity.>
On a fundamental basis, if I wanted to make a bet on my thesis, which utility companies (not the stocks, I'll do that one)with lots of modern underutilized gas fired (not oil) have the most leverage to a substantial pickup in demand? |
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| To: jim_p who wrote (26079) | 10/4/2003 12:39:07 PM | | From: grinder965 | | | | Jim,
I agree.....lots of the remaining uncertainty removed. Good timing too as Arnold will also try like hell to get some money back from those that screwed the state. Since RRI doesn't have the longterm contracts like CPN, WMB and others, they'll be little to go after RRI for. Very important as RRI has been on the top of Cali's shitlist. Only significant item that remains is the amount of the refund due cali. The reserve they have established should cover it as they increased it at the time the most recent formula was established.
Also, this guy Staff might be just the ticket to really turn things around internally at the company. RRI is one of the few companies in the sector that has not been gutted having to sell many of their assets (CPN is another but has way too much debt). In fact, if the nuon sale goes through and they pickup TGN, they will come through this a much larger company along with a debt load that's manageable. RRI is looking more and more like a homerun here!
A little surprised by yesterday's price action.....would have thought a better showing due to the news. Watched the ticker and it was clear someone was intent on keeping a cap on any significant price increase. No big deal as the gains will come as the newsflow continues to improve. Now lets see them close the nuon sale along with a decent 3Q report for continuing ops and it's off to the races!!! |
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| To: russwinter who wrote (26127) | 10/4/2003 1:33:57 PM | | From: quehubo | | | | Russ - One other point data is pretty strong that only 1 bcfpd of NG is being displaced today by oil, residual only.
So I do not expect this demand to return unless NG prices crater for several months.
As far as pure play IPP's with heavy new NG capacity, CPN seems like to most direct play. RRI seems like a good one but they have coal, which is good.
The power generation market in general will be for NG generation one of razor thin margins for several years. The amount of excess capacity is tremendous and I do not see much activity to mothball this excess new capacity.
So look for new gas fired generation competing with similar capacity. |
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| To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (25935) | 10/4/2003 2:45:41 PM | | From: Ed Ajootian | | | | Finallythere, TMR -- Congrats to you and (I believe) energyplay for having the guts to buy this stock during this news vacuum. So far it looks like a good move.
I still think we will see a dip under $4 sometime soon, with the continued high gas injection numbers, and am keeping some dry powder available just for that event.
At some point (around mid-month I'm guessing) folks will have to decide whether to jump on the TMR bandwagon or not, since once we get toward the end of the month the stock will probably start to trade up in anticipation of the next round of drilling. |
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