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   Gold/Mining/EnergyBig Dog's Boom Boom Room


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To: Black Blade who wrote (199127)9/1/2019 2:02:52 PM
From: Ditchdigger
1 Recommendation   of 201145
 
I see BPL has assets in Freeport

OverviewBuckeye Bahamas Hub is the leading hub in the Caribbean region and the largest petroleum products terminal in the Western Hemisphere. Buckeye Bahamas Hub currently has over 26 million barrels of storage capacity and 8 berths, including 2 VLCC-capable berths. Storage includes capacity for crude oil, fuel oil and VGO, diesel fuel, and gasoline and components. These products are imported from locations around the world and stored or blended at Buckeye Bahamas Hub for export, including to regional consumers, key import locations in the Americas, and long-haul markets in Asia. Due to the scale of the location, Buckeye Bahamas Hub is ideally suited for blending, transshipping, and terminalling operations for global trade flows.

Additionally, Buckeye Bahamas Hub provides certain import and export advantages for our customers, as it is situated within the Grand Bahama Port Authority Freeport Free Trade Zone area and thus imports to the facility are granted exemption from customs duties.



buckeyeglobalmarine.com

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From: Black Blade9/3/2019 12:03:20 AM
   of 201145
 
"A Murderer's Row": Oil And Gas Bankruptcies To Accelerate As $137 Billion Debt Matures Over Next Two Years
.....................................................................................................................................
Oil and gas companies are facing an onslaught of bankruptcies as the "shale revolution" appears to be coming to an unceremonious end, at least on Wall Street, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Companies like Sanchez Energy Corp., Halcon Resources Corp. and 26 other oil and gas producers have all filed for bankruptcy this year, already matching the 28 industry bankruptcies from all of 2018. The number is expected to rise as debt maturities for those looking to cash in on the shale revolution and make bets on higher oil prices years ago are now looming.

5.7% of all energy companies with junk rated bonds are defaulting as of August, the highest level since 2017. The metric is "considered a key indicator of the industry’s financial stress."



The defaults are on the rise as companies struggle to service debt, bring in new money and refinance existing debt. The once-darling shale business model has been under significant scrutiny from Wall Street over the last 18 months, adding to the headwinds for many companies.

Investor interest has faded after years of meager returns while, at the same time, companies struggle to meet their cost of capital with oil prices below $60/barrel.

Private companies and smaller drillers have felt the most pain thus far. These companies "collectively generate a large portion of U.S. oil," and their distress is indicative of wider distress throughout U.S. shale.

Patrick Hughes, a partner at Haynes & Boone said: “They were able to hang in there for a while, but now their debt levels are just too high and they’re going to have to take their medicine.”

Halcon filed for bankruptcy in August, just three years after it last filed for bankruptcy, due to a production slowdown in West Texas and higher than expected processing costs. The company's chief restructuring officer (which we guess is probably becoming somewhat of a permanent position after filing bankruptcy twice in 3 years) said the bankruptcy was partly a result of lenders cutting the company's credit line by $50 million earlier this year after it violated its debt covenants due to too much leverage.

Sanchez Energy also filed for bankruptcy in August, citing falling energy prices and a dispute with Blackstone over assets that were jointly acquired from Anadarko Petroleum in 2017. Blackstone said Sanchez defaulted on a joint deal to develop the assets and, as a result, Blackstone was entitled to take them over.

Other shale drillers, like EP Energy Corp., have also missed debt payments. EP missed a $40 million interest payment due August 15 as it continued to struggle from the debt piled atop of it as a result of an Apollo-led buyout in 2012.

As of Q2 2019, the company had debt to the tune of 6x its EBITDA. The company has said it has to mid-September to make the payment and is considering a "range of options", including bankruptcy, to deal with the issue.

Lately, the slew of bankruptcies isn't so much a result of low crude prices, either. In 2016, when crude prices were below $30/barrel, 70 U.S. and Canadian oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy. Crude prices have nearly doubled since then. Instead, it's more a result of debt - and the many companies who took on debt after the 2016 slump all face upcoming maturities over the next four years. While just $9 billion is set to mature throughout the remainder of 2019, about $137 billion will be due between 2020 and 2022, according to S&P.

And debt of companies like Alta Mesa Resources remains as risky as it gets. After being handed a $1 billion "blank check" to invest in shale, the tide has turned on the company in a big way.

Paul Harvey, credit analyst at S&P, said: “A lot of companies are highly levered and facing maturities on their debt that I like to call a murderer’s row, maturities are coming year after year.”

According to S&P, the lowest possible yield an investor can earn on a bond without the issuer defaulting stands at 7%, as of July, in oil and gas. That metric is about 4% for the overall market. For junk bonds, such yields are almost 13%. Energy companies have predictably backed away from the high yield market as the cost of capital has increased, with high yield issuances falling 40% from the same period a year earlier. Overall high yield issuances were up 32%.

Tim Polvado, the head of U.S. energy for the Paris-based bank Natixis SA concluded: "Any available capital structure is going to be more expensive than it was a year ago.”

As is the case in many bankruptcies, equity holders could be "all but wiped" in many of these shale companies, while bondholders jockey for seniority and priority as the likely new owners.

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From: isopatch9/4/2019 2:05:59 PM
4 Recommendations   of 201145
 
JMHO. That said? Think NG E&Ps (not sinking beneath the waves because of excessive debt) which R well positioned in the most productive basins, with good pipeline access, and location close to major consumption markets, are building bottom formations.

As it becomes clear another cold winter (perhaps colder than last heating season) is unfolding east of the Rockies? These stocks will rally strongly.

Early frost this month would do a lot to make that so. We shall see...

Just one example: Note the blowout climactic volume in recent years is now sharply declining. .

Very LT weekly RRC chart followed by recent months and finally the very telling 10 day hourly.

If my working hypothesis for late this year & 1st qtr 2020 is even close to correct? The daily will be next to print positive divergences already apparent in the hourly and an important tradable bottom will take shape.

Key price/volume resistance currently 5.75 - 6.00. Needs to blast through there on big volume day to get this wagon rolling.

Cheers,

Isopatch







.

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To: isopatch who wrote (199616)9/4/2019 2:44:09 PM
From: Elroy Jetson
   of 201145
 
What was the p/e of RRC at those peak prices?


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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199617)9/4/2019 3:10:01 PM
From: isopatch
   of 201145
 
Not used PE ratios for decades during a very successful career as a free lance professional trader/investor.

Per many posts, on numerous boards, over the years, posting time is very limited. If I get into back and forth discussions about one stock vs another or about the analysis tools I find most useful? That leaves no time me to post content here or on other threads. So apologize for this being my only reply to you. Mean no disrespect and you're free to have the last word if you wish.

All the best,

Iso

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From: Black Blade9/4/2019 5:49:19 PM
   of 201145
 
Crude Oil Inventory Build Takes Oil Markets By Surprise
.....................................................................................................................................


The American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a surprise crude oil inventory build of 401,000 barrels for the week ending Aug 29, compared to analyst expectations of a 3.50-million barrel draw.

The inventory build this week takes away from last week’s draw in crude oil inventories of 11.1 million barrels, according to API data. The EIA estimated that week that there was an inventory draw of 10.0 million barrels.

After today’s inventory move, the net draw for the year is 18.68 million barrels for the 36-week reporting period so far, using API data.

The API this week reported a 877,000-barrel draw in gasoline inventories for week ending Aug 29. Analysts predicted a draw in gasoline inventories of 1.60 million barrels for the week.

Distillate inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels for the week, while inventories at Cushing fell by 238,000 barrels.

US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending August 23 rose to 12.5 million bpd, a brand new production high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration report on crude oil inventories is due to be released on Thursday at 11:00a.m. EDT, a one-day delay due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States.

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From: Black Blade9/5/2019 11:20:30 AM
   of 201145
 
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 30, 2019 .........................................................................



U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week ending August 30, 2019, which was 27,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, up by 976,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.9 million barrels per day, 12.5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 717,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 126,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week and are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories remained virtually unchanged while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are about 14% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 4.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.7 million barrels per day, up by 1.6% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 0.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 5.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Black Blade (a.k.a. "Dennis Erectus"):

This week's EIA Petroleum Inventory Status Report is MODERATELY BULLISH as Crude and refined product Inventories decreased overall even though refinery utilization fell to just over 94%. Meanwhile, Saudi and other OPEC members continue to hold the line on production as global demand has fallen. There are sure signs of an economic slowdown as the US - China Trade War rages on. However, news that the US and Chinese plan to restart trade negotiations has helped push markets including energy higher. One thing we do know is that Saudi is really hurting and is doing what they can to get oil back over $80/bbl where they expect to break even thanks to social spending programs. It looks like $80 oil is going to wait for a long time yet so life will not improve much in the Kingdom.

As for the "Blade Portfolio" this week we continue to add APTS, BRG, NRZ, USAC and ET to the portfolio this week for income. We also continue to add physical American Silver Eagles with our "dollar-cost-averaging" strategy. We also continue to add to our eREIT sector through Crowd Funding ventures FUNDRISE and RICH UNCLES. We traded haven't traded any Crypto Currencies this week as we wait to see what shakes out. Precious metals have been very good for us lately and we continue to use precious metals as our hedge.

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, accumulate physical Silver and Gold bullion as "portfolio insurance", and stockpile supplies of long term nonperishable foods and basic necessities into storage. After all we do "live in interesting times".

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From: Black Blade9/5/2019 7:07:34 PM
   of 201145
 
2020 Election Could Put Oil Out Of Business
...........................................................................................................................................................

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The Democratic presidential candidates subjected Americans to a lengthy town hall event on CNN last night covering climate change, where they discussed a range of plans that will entirely upend the U.S. energy sector.

In the last few months, the candidates have tried to outdo each other as they released ever more aggressive plans on energy and climate change, engaging in an arms race of sorts with trillion-dollar spending plans.



There is still quite a gulf between, say, Vice President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion plan and Senator Bernie Sanders’ $16.3 trillion plan and everything in between. There is arguably an even greater ideological difference in the modest carbon tax proposals and R&D clean tech funding from South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, which very much rely on private companies and leave existing energy markets largely untouched, and the more dramatic economic and social transformation embedded in Sen. Sanders’ plan, which, among other things, calls for publicly-owned utilities to lead the way on renewable energy.

But perhaps the most striking thing about the climate plans is where the candidates agree. The proposals range in scope, but they are undoubtedly bold visions for a clean energy transition. It was too long ago that a modest carbon tax was seen as controversial; now the baseline in the Democratic Party is a complete phase out of fossil fuels in the medium- to long-term. The Overton window has very much been moved.

As Bloomberg noted, there are several issues that they all agree on.

For instance, they will all rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, which, given the scale of the climate crisis, is child’s play. That’s the bare minimum and almost not worth mentioning, especially since it relied on voluntary commitments anyway. It was also done by the prior Democratic administration so it shouldn’t be seen as any sort of bold proposal for change.

More relevant for the oil and gas sector is the call to end subsidies for fossil fuels, which total as much as $14.7 billion annually, including deductions for intangible drilling costs; last-in, first-out accounting; master-limited partnership tax exemptions; and low-cost royalty and leasing rates on federal lands, among others. Some of this was also proposed by the Obama administration but stalled in Congress.

It may give some oil executives a bit of heartburn to see their subsidies on the chopping block, but even if passed, these measures wouldn’t fundamentally disrupt the industry.

But here is where it gets really tricky if you are an oil and gas driller. Many of the top tier candidates want to revoke the permits or otherwise block major long-distance pipelines, including Keystone XL, Dakota Access, Line 3, Line 5, and essentially any other project of this nature. This will severely damage Canada’s oil sands, which will begin to lose access to the U.S. market. Oil sands producers would only have the Pacific Ocean as their way out.

Moving on to other ambitious proposals. All of the candidates – at least all of the viable ones – have vowed to end drilling on federal lands. This was something Senator Elizabeth Warren came out with early on, and other candidates have followed suit. No new leases for offshore drilling, none for BLM land, etc. The candidates point out that to fundamentally transform the energy system, and to hit climate targets that are becoming exceedingly difficult to reach, oil and gas reserves need to be left in the ground.

Some candidates want a ban on oil exports and a ban on fracking.

Many of them have some version of a net-zero emissions target, although the timeframes vary. That means eliminating fossil fuels from the energy system entirely, including full electrification of the transportation fleet.

While much of these ideas target fossil fuels, at the same time the candidates want to invest trillions in renewable energy, cleantech R&D, EV fleets and infrastructure, green manufacturing, and a litany of other initiatives intended to accelerate the transition off of fossil fuels.

This is by no means a comprehensive look at all the details of individual climate proposals. But the point is that the U.S. oil and gas industry would be phased out of existence. Much of the plans are hypothetical, and would require heavy lifts by the U.S. Congress. Passing legislation that overhauls huge sectors of the economy is not something the institution is known for.

But there is plenty of room for executive action, notably on major pipeline infrastructure, fracking, air regulations, and drilling on public lands. The President won’t need to turn to Congress to still upend the oil and gas industry.

It’s telling that in the last few weeks, much has been made of the Trump administration’s regulatory rollback on methane emissions, a signature policy from the Obama administration. It’s a testament to the scope and scale of the climate proposals from the 2020 candidates that regulating methane is such an afterthought, a miniscule policy idea compared to the transformational packages on offer.


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To: Black Blade who wrote (199621)9/5/2019 10:31:01 PM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 201145
 
Fools playing the Pied piper for other fools.

Never getting traction , unless you are uninformed and do not want economic progress.

Fringe voters vs the winning majority.

The worm has turned.

Bob

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From: isopatch9/6/2019 1:04:44 PM
1 Recommendation   of 201145
 
Quick break before lunch after going one on one with east porch roof this morning:..)) Thank God for some dry, painting, weather the past week. Anyway...

Glad I'm no longer an active trader. Some of the wildest whip saw swings I've ever seen in the PMs and energy stocks with the exception of a tiny handful of big cap energy names, such as CVX and SLB. My wag?

This "Whip Saw City" is textbook bottoming action. MMs do everything possible to repeatedly run all the stops in order to build inventory before every major Intermediate or Long Term bottom is confirmed. That signal stands out as a powerful breakout on a massive volume surge confirming a completed bottom in daily charts, then the weeklies. The trend will be the bulls friend thereafter.

Do I know exactly when that happens? Hell no!<lol> Mr. Market will show us when he's good and ready. Until then? My opinion and a couple of bucks will still buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks...))

Mentioned a few fav energy names, on my own board, that should greatly outperform large caps in profits between now and 1st qtr next year. HOWEVER...

Am yet to buy anything. Anybody who wants to front run me is welcome to do so. I'll gladly pay a higher price/share for the better risk/reward ratio outlined above...))

Have to log back off for awhile. Lots of seasonal harvesting yet to do, AWA finishing work on this large 19th Century house, before winter.

Cheers,

Isopatch

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