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   Gold/Mining/EnergyBig Dog's Boom Boom Room


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To: E_K_S who wrote (199281)6/16/2019 10:09:21 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 201483
 
Hi EKS,

Great post - I agree completely on your vision.

With AI cheap labor becomes displaced.

Robots work 24/7/365 - people want time off.

Bob

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199283)6/16/2019 12:45:01 PM
From: E_K_S
   of 201483
 
My guess is that manufacturing (employee) wages will be a smaller part of the cost of production in the future so it will not be a significant factor in the value chain (as it it now or in the past).

The value proposition decision will be to make those products as close to the end consumer as possible (w/i miles not in other Countries) as transportation/logistic expenses will be the largest component in the value chain. It is critical we invest now in our human resources as the new labor force will need to know how to build/manage and maintain these next generation manufacturing technologies.

As an example, look at oil exploration/drilling and or mining where more technology is used to find and extract the resource. I have followed many mining companies and they are investing large amounts of capital in automation, specifically smart autonomous mining equipment and it's working. Driverless Trucks/Cars and delivery vehicles are all in stages of development. Kroger has test sites (in AZ) for autonomous delivery of groceries and prepared meals.

The big political 'bomb' that must be addressed are all the 'unfunded' pension liabilities at the Federal, State and local levels and how that will be financed in the future. Interactive map of pension liability by state.. (Looks like Alaska, California and Illinois the worst at $25k per person unfunded. Tennessee appears to be the lowest by far (actually not a surprise to me but the gap with the rest of the pack was)

policyed.org

Unless pension funds around the nation continue to earn 7% or more per year on their investments, it’s likely that taxpayers will be on the hook for trillions of dollars of promises to government unions. These promises have been made by politicians past and present, resulting in pressure to increase taxes and cut government services. (Negative interest rates will just make the problem worse)

forbes.com

I do agree w/ your view on enforcement of intellectual property for China but also for every country/business/individual that does not license and/or follow the copyright rules.

Tariffs are but one way to enforce compliance. Even my example of local recycling where we send containers full of our garbage to China and get boxes in return really s/d be processed locally and/or by the manufacturer providing in-store collection. Local/State and Federal policies could promote better recycling through taxes and/or manufacturing guidelines.

We live in interesting times and change is good.

FWIW, I do not agree w/ a Carbon Tax but do like the general discussion (by all groups) on solutions to use our resources more efficiently.

Have you noticed the big investments that Exxon has made in Solar. So the market forces are working.

I continue to look for investment opportunities in companies that are developing (profitable) solutions to many of these social/environmental manufacturing problems. But sometimes you need broad action through Executive Order(s) to effect change.

Good Investing

EKS

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To: t4texas who wrote (199284)6/16/2019 12:58:40 PM
From: JimisJim
2 Recommendations   of 201483
 
Yes, my 1st cousin grows 1,600 acres of beans and 1,200 acres of corn in SW Ohio. He’s losing his ass in this tariff tit-for-tat and gets a fraction for his beans of what he got 2-3 years ago. Weather in Ohio didn’t help. He is not winning in this trade war.

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To: JimisJim who wrote (199288)6/16/2019 1:43:31 PM
From: Winfastorlose
   of 201483
 
The trade war is not the only reason grain prices are down. They were headed down long before Trump was elected. . Brazil, for example, has been producing more and more soybeans and there has been an oversupply.

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To: Winfastorlose who wrote (199289)6/16/2019 2:02:14 PM
From: JimisJim
1 Recommendation   of 201483
 
Are you saying the tariffs have had no effect beyond what was trending for other issues? My cousin said prices had been squeezing him, but the tariffs have slashed his income a lot more and a lot more quickly. The bailouts they got covered about 15% of his losses last year my cousin tells me and this year is looking worse. Like a lot of macro-economics, things are way more complicated in the real world.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (199287)6/16/2019 2:20:08 PM
From: Elroy Jetson
1 Recommendation   of 201483
 
The woman, Zhang Yin, who created "America Chung Nam" and China's "Nine Dragons Paper" recycling industry while her husband was a student in the US became wealthy while eliminating a huge part of our trash problem. en.wikipedia.org Very little of this waste ever came back to industrialized nations as cardboard boxes because the US and Japanese exporters would never have accepted this low-quality cardboard. These boxes enclosed lower-value products consumed in China or exported to Africa and other markets.

The paper and plastics contaminated with food and other substances created massive environmental pollution problems in China, so as of January China no longer accepts paper waste with any contamination.

This has left the western world with huge trash problem, with paper and plastics which were formerly sent to China now being sent to landfill.

Only a few very determined cities like Los Angeles are employing hand-sorters to separate clean paper from contaminated paper - and sorting shredding and washing plastic waste so it can be sent to China. This labor intensive process costs far more than the revenues received from the sale of the used paper and plastic.

No US paper maker wants this mixed clean paper waste as even the bleaching creates environmental problems. When you buy "recycled paper" or "paper with recycled content" the paper manufacturer is referring to the trimmed "scraps" from their paper being sent back into the slurry before it leaves their factory.

Even the more demanding label "post-consumer recycled paper" is not what you think it is. Because the "consumer" in this case is the box or paper cup manufacturer who trucks their scraps back to the paper factory.

I have a fraternity brother who founded a company which buys clean plastic and paper and adds more new plastic to extrude into that odd "plastic lumber" embossed with a wood design used in playground equipment and bus benches. It 's a profitable but marginal business and about the only potential American user for our mountains of clean waste.

China's major cities have "recycling containers" through-out their cities to give them that trendy "green look" of a modern world-class city and none of this material is recycled but all of this waste is burned or buried.


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To: JimisJim who wrote (199290)6/16/2019 3:47:19 PM
From: Winfastorlose
   of 201483
 
I'm saying that grain prices have been in a downtrend for several years. In addition, US soybeans have the additional problem of being loaded with glyphosate as well. Some nations do not want to buy them if they can be substituted.

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To: Winfastorlose who wrote (199292)6/16/2019 4:07:55 PM
From: JimisJim
2 Recommendations   of 201483
 
<grain prices have been in a downtrend for several years>

I agree, the prices were trending down, but when the tariffs started being slung to and from China, prices (according to my lifelong GOP Cousin), began collapsing much farther and faster by a large factor -- hence, 2 bailouts for farmers already that total $28 million. My cousin says it doesn't even come close to helping him and will have to find ways to cut back -- not good for the tiny community he lives near, banks with, gets supplies, etc.

My cousin and his neighboring farmers were all making homemade bacon and various sausages when I drove through there on my way to spend time with my mom on her 92nd birthday (and who grew up on a farm). They do this every year, but this year a 2nd go 'round since they'd already lost 4 fields to flooding and assuming they dry out in time, will have to be replanted -- if it pencils out financially.

So for an entire day, I drank beer and acted as Quality Control by sampling batches of bacon and the different sausages (this year included Wild Boar meat and Alligator -- my brother doesn't live too far away from my cousin and they'd gone to the mid-south and south to hunt "wild" meat). Every farmer there agreed the only ones who will make out well with the bailouts are the agri-biz outfits and very large operations. Family farmers like the ones I hang with won't get much at all.

For Christmas, I'm going to buy my cousin an auto defibrillator for the "bar" he built in the corner of one of his bldgs/barns, complete with a bar top made of bowling alley wood -- my uncle, his dad, owned the town bowling alley and restaurant, as well as many neon signs he'd snagged from his dad's storage when he died.

I felt like Homer Simpson: mmmmmmmmmm, beer, fresh bacon and sausage all day... if I ever spent more than one day a year there, I'd start looking like Homer, too... <ggg> I never tell my wife about all that beer and bacon, etc. -- just that I spend those days hanging with my cousin, brother and my best friend/best man who now owns the farm my grandmother owned and where my mom grew up and I spent the first 9 years of my life.

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To: JimisJim who wrote (199293)6/16/2019 4:45:00 PM
From: IC720
   of 201483
 
Don't mean to butt in. Isn't this how Markets work? Look at past history. Market knows. Pretend we're now going into a Cooling Cycle...So Price goes Down, fooling most.... Are not planting seasons becoming shorter? Many record cold months increasing. Possibly into 2024-25. If true Agriculture-commodity begin increasing soon.... Cycles...imo cooling period ahead. Market began in 1780's? As a casino? Know's things :) House usually wins.. )

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To: JimisJim who wrote (199293)6/16/2019 5:55:13 PM
From: Winfastorlose
   of 201483
 
Sounds to me like you had a great time there!

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