| To: JimisJim who wrote (199293) | 6/16/2019 4:45:00 PM | | From: IC720 | | | | | Don't mean to butt in. Isn't this how Markets work? Look at past history. Market knows. Pretend we're now going into a Cooling Cycle...So Price goes Down, fooling most.... Are not planting seasons becoming shorter? Many record cold months increasing. Possibly into 2024-25. If true Agriculture-commodity begin increasing soon.... Cycles...imo cooling period ahead. Market began in 1780's? As a casino? Know's things :) House usually wins.. ) |
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| To: IC720 who wrote (199294) | 6/16/2019 6:16:47 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | I also look at the commodity prices (mainly corn, soybeans, wheat, lumber, copper) and noticed that prices have been at multi year lows and the stock market at/near all time highs. When you look at the divergence, there is always a reversion to the mean price (commodity prices increase and stock prices fall) which reflects the nature of cycles. Price bubbles always 'pop'.
What is interesting is that Oil/NG prices had a very nice recovery from the recent lows and only now w/ the inventory builds we have seen those prices fall. That price action may be indicating a slowing of the U.S. economy (and world economies).
The one thing I am having a hard time reconciling are these negative interest rates (Germany, Japan and now parts of Europe w/ Italy close to going negative). That really can not be sustained and there is some speculation that U.S. interest rates may/could go negative too.
I still am bullish on commodities, using the reversion to the mean idea. Maybe stock market has peaked but there are many factors that go into the market price. Add tariffs to that mix and the huge $22 Trln US debt and the use of leveraged debt around the world.
One conclusion I have come up with is it is very difficult to be a farmer even w/ the technology and the new GMO seeds. Weather is always a big factor.
Good investing
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (199296) | 6/16/2019 11:38:58 PM | | From: IC720 | | | | FYI
"For those who have not heard about this, China has a serious food problem.
They will have to come to us for help eventually.
This will certainly boost corn and soybean prices.
Farmers have been complaining about low commodity prices for some time now.
This might be the beginning of a bull market in grains. (NTA)
Good article from Yahoo,"
finance.yahoo.com |
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| To: IC720 who wrote (199298) | 6/17/2019 8:51:28 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | One of my investment themes is an AG basket of stocks. Been buying CTVA the AG spin off from DOW. Probably the best pure play I have found (for value & growth) in the AG sector. I also have a few mico caps that develop seeds using new genetic technologies (Crisper) including SANW (have an alfalfa, Corn, Sunflower,Sorghum) and RKDA (Arcadia Biosciences). Both companies develop seed varieties that are draught tolerant and water salt tolerant so can be used in places w/ marginal production.
These small companies lose money and it takes a lot of money to get a new variety into production. You got to feed the world and these hybrid seeds can increase production and be used on marginal soils. RKDA has ties to UCD (University CA Davis one of the best AG schools in the US) and are developing some 'hemp' varieties and testing those strains in Hawaii. Their hemp improves the soil and other than POT, there are many other uses for hemp (fibres/oil) and it grows like a weed (3 harvest in a year). Animals can eat the siliage and then the fibre left over is used to make fibre (rope, cloth etc).
Keep your eye on India too. Not only are soy beans a big crop but I suspect peas (green & yellow) now being used to make the BYND meat product. These are grown all over the world but India have been growing these legumes for hundreds of years (lentils). Very high in protein.
Feeding your population will trump politics IMO. The US has the technology in seed development to share w/ the world.
Good Investing
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (199300) | 6/17/2019 8:58:52 AM | | From: IC720 | | | | You may follow M. Armstrong...
post this today..
"The Fall Army Worm (FAW; Spodoptera frugiperda) is a crop-eating pest that was first detected in China back in January 2019. It has now spread across China’s southern border and currently impacts about 8,500 hectares (127,000 mu) of grain production in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hunan, and Hainan provinces. Officially, Chinese authorities have employed an emergency action plan to monitor and respond to the pest."
armstrongeconomics.com |
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| To: John Koligman who wrote (199297) | 6/17/2019 9:09:25 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | That is a very interesting article. I had an investment a few years ago in a company that developed driverless tractors. The concept was good but it never really scaled. All the driverless software is controlled by the manufacturer (ie Deere) in a closed system and the company I invested in was using an 'open' platform.
Farmers still have to pay Deere on every software update. They do have some very sophisticated systems that help the farmer monitor what/where they plant in their field, apply fertilizer based on soil type/seed variety, measure/track yield during harvest and many other integrated devices (use of drones and satellite) field data.
This data is now being shared w/ farmers and it is just a matter of time before these systems become more 'open' and smart. There is even a Farm COOP (I track on Youtube in MN)) that is helping their members buy seed directly from the manufacturer and through their consortium may/could help expand/integrate these needed farm services (as a group). There is lots of farm data generated that can be fed into AI programs.
Therefore at some point this 'closed' software system that Deere controls, must open up and that will scale.
Still in the early stages of development, similar to where the PC was in the 90's.
This is true for many sectors but mining and AG seem to be the early adopters.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (199302) | 6/17/2019 12:37:59 PM | | From: JimisJim | | | | | My cousin is a John Deere dealer on the side (very rural area) and he's got several "machines" that are all but driverless -- he has someone in them at all times just in case. They are all about GPS signals and Dept. of Ag satellites... literally, my cousin or his "employees" sit and listen to music in air conditioned cabs while the "machine" (they are all specialized now, and fewer plain old tractors are sold now except to the very small farmers) just does it's thing... also gets continuous instant feedback down to the square foot when going over a field spraying fertilizers or herbicides and the computers adjust how much is applied every square foot -- something people were unable to do -- I know some who tried. |
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