| To: JimisJim who wrote (199290) | 6/16/2019 3:47:19 PM | | From: Winfastorlose | | | | | I'm saying that grain prices have been in a downtrend for several years. In addition, US soybeans have the additional problem of being loaded with glyphosate as well. Some nations do not want to buy them if they can be substituted. |
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| To: Winfastorlose who wrote (199292) | 6/16/2019 4:07:55 PM | | From: JimisJim | | | | <grain prices have been in a downtrend for several years>
I agree, the prices were trending down, but when the tariffs started being slung to and from China, prices (according to my lifelong GOP Cousin), began collapsing much farther and faster by a large factor -- hence, 2 bailouts for farmers already that total $28 million. My cousin says it doesn't even come close to helping him and will have to find ways to cut back -- not good for the tiny community he lives near, banks with, gets supplies, etc.
My cousin and his neighboring farmers were all making homemade bacon and various sausages when I drove through there on my way to spend time with my mom on her 92nd birthday (and who grew up on a farm). They do this every year, but this year a 2nd go 'round since they'd already lost 4 fields to flooding and assuming they dry out in time, will have to be replanted -- if it pencils out financially.
So for an entire day, I drank beer and acted as Quality Control by sampling batches of bacon and the different sausages (this year included Wild Boar meat and Alligator -- my brother doesn't live too far away from my cousin and they'd gone to the mid-south and south to hunt "wild" meat). Every farmer there agreed the only ones who will make out well with the bailouts are the agri-biz outfits and very large operations. Family farmers like the ones I hang with won't get much at all.
For Christmas, I'm going to buy my cousin an auto defibrillator for the "bar" he built in the corner of one of his bldgs/barns, complete with a bar top made of bowling alley wood -- my uncle, his dad, owned the town bowling alley and restaurant, as well as many neon signs he'd snagged from his dad's storage when he died.
I felt like Homer Simpson: mmmmmmmmmm, beer, fresh bacon and sausage all day... if I ever spent more than one day a year there, I'd start looking like Homer, too... <ggg> I never tell my wife about all that beer and bacon, etc. -- just that I spend those days hanging with my cousin, brother and my best friend/best man who now owns the farm my grandmother owned and where my mom grew up and I spent the first 9 years of my life. |
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| To: JimisJim who wrote (199293) | 6/16/2019 4:45:00 PM | | From: IC720 | | | | | Don't mean to butt in. Isn't this how Markets work? Look at past history. Market knows. Pretend we're now going into a Cooling Cycle...So Price goes Down, fooling most.... Are not planting seasons becoming shorter? Many record cold months increasing. Possibly into 2024-25. If true Agriculture-commodity begin increasing soon.... Cycles...imo cooling period ahead. Market began in 1780's? As a casino? Know's things :) House usually wins.. ) |
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| To: IC720 who wrote (199294) | 6/16/2019 6:16:47 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | I also look at the commodity prices (mainly corn, soybeans, wheat, lumber, copper) and noticed that prices have been at multi year lows and the stock market at/near all time highs. When you look at the divergence, there is always a reversion to the mean price (commodity prices increase and stock prices fall) which reflects the nature of cycles. Price bubbles always 'pop'.
What is interesting is that Oil/NG prices had a very nice recovery from the recent lows and only now w/ the inventory builds we have seen those prices fall. That price action may be indicating a slowing of the U.S. economy (and world economies).
The one thing I am having a hard time reconciling are these negative interest rates (Germany, Japan and now parts of Europe w/ Italy close to going negative). That really can not be sustained and there is some speculation that U.S. interest rates may/could go negative too.
I still am bullish on commodities, using the reversion to the mean idea. Maybe stock market has peaked but there are many factors that go into the market price. Add tariffs to that mix and the huge $22 Trln US debt and the use of leveraged debt around the world.
One conclusion I have come up with is it is very difficult to be a farmer even w/ the technology and the new GMO seeds. Weather is always a big factor.
Good investing
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (199296) | 6/16/2019 11:38:58 PM | | From: IC720 | | | | FYI
"For those who have not heard about this, China has a serious food problem.
They will have to come to us for help eventually.
This will certainly boost corn and soybean prices.
Farmers have been complaining about low commodity prices for some time now.
This might be the beginning of a bull market in grains. (NTA)
Good article from Yahoo,"
finance.yahoo.com |
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| To: IC720 who wrote (199298) | 6/17/2019 8:51:28 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | One of my investment themes is an AG basket of stocks. Been buying CTVA the AG spin off from DOW. Probably the best pure play I have found (for value & growth) in the AG sector. I also have a few mico caps that develop seeds using new genetic technologies (Crisper) including SANW (have an alfalfa, Corn, Sunflower,Sorghum) and RKDA (Arcadia Biosciences). Both companies develop seed varieties that are draught tolerant and water salt tolerant so can be used in places w/ marginal production.
These small companies lose money and it takes a lot of money to get a new variety into production. You got to feed the world and these hybrid seeds can increase production and be used on marginal soils. RKDA has ties to UCD (University CA Davis one of the best AG schools in the US) and are developing some 'hemp' varieties and testing those strains in Hawaii. Their hemp improves the soil and other than POT, there are many other uses for hemp (fibres/oil) and it grows like a weed (3 harvest in a year). Animals can eat the siliage and then the fibre left over is used to make fibre (rope, cloth etc).
Keep your eye on India too. Not only are soy beans a big crop but I suspect peas (green & yellow) now being used to make the BYND meat product. These are grown all over the world but India have been growing these legumes for hundreds of years (lentils). Very high in protein.
Feeding your population will trump politics IMO. The US has the technology in seed development to share w/ the world.
Good Investing
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (199300) | 6/17/2019 8:58:52 AM | | From: IC720 | | | | You may follow M. Armstrong...
post this today..
"The Fall Army Worm (FAW; Spodoptera frugiperda) is a crop-eating pest that was first detected in China back in January 2019. It has now spread across China’s southern border and currently impacts about 8,500 hectares (127,000 mu) of grain production in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hunan, and Hainan provinces. Officially, Chinese authorities have employed an emergency action plan to monitor and respond to the pest."
armstrongeconomics.com |
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