| To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199269) | 6/13/2019 12:45:07 PM | | From: isopatch | | | | Agree. China will not do "a deal", compromise or show any flexibility, let alone cave. They're an "Insular (aka Continental) Power". For centuries, historians have emphasized Continental Powers are inflexible compared to Island Nations or Island based empires such as the UK or Japan. So....
1. Unless Trump caves, almost entirely? Global economic conditions will worsen rapidly from here.
2. Unless Trump caves? A recession, perhaps a severe one, becomes very likely just before the 2020 election. Everybody knows how that plays out.
He will cave, period! And, of course, claim victory. Hey folks not being partisan. This is economics 101 "straight up".
Though now exactly the same as the infamous Smooth Haley Tariff? This huge strategic blunder is close enough to for me to usurp poetic license by abeling it Smooth Haley 2.0.
Trump will cave by early next year, at the latest.
All IMHO, of course.<g>
Iso |
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| To: isopatch who wrote (199270) | 6/13/2019 12:52:43 PM | | From: Elroy Jetson | | | | Long term US policy is an extension of what the US economy needs.
Trump may well be traitorous enough to cave to China's demands, but future presidents will continue to pursue US policy representing the needs of America's businesses and America's people.
Until China finds a way to adapt to the modern world of global trade, a trade divorce with the US is inevitable. Trump can only postpone it. |
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| To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199271) | 6/13/2019 1:00:56 PM | | From: isopatch | | | | <Long term US policy is an extension of what the US economy needs>
FWIW, been an advocate of The Economic Interpretation Of History, since reading excerpts from the work of Charles Beard when I was an undergraduate in the 60s. Active reading, in decades since only strengthened a knowledge base supporting that historical school of thought. Of course...))
<The Way Back Machine> shows how far into the primordial mists, even of pre-history, that reality extends.
Have to log off for awhile.
Cheers,
Iso. |
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| To: miraje who wrote (199273) | 6/13/2019 9:00:25 PM | | From: Elroy Jetson | | | | China probably does have a lot more to lose, but I'm not convinced they're currently rational in that way.
China has a long history of seeing their country as the victim of others in the world and is thus entitled to the intellectual property owned by others as some sort of reparations for past slights. A lot of this same victim justification runs through Russian society. China arrests their own citizens to use them fatally as organ donors because "victims" can justify any sort of barbarity as a natural response to their own past real or imagined hurts.
Both Russia and China have long operated major programs of industrial espionage without any sense of shame, because they see themselves in a fight against a world that is "rigged against them".
Of course it's their political suppression of their own scientists, intellectuals and entrepreneurs that keeps them at a perpetual disadvantage, but they truly don't understand this as they believe these most intelligent of people are primarily the source of anti-state agitation and plots.
China does have a very strong economic incentive to do a deal to protect foreign intellectual property, reveal the level of state subsidies to each of their government-owned industries, and halt the shift of their economy into a war machine - but instead their propaganda is preparing their population for "another Long March" to defeat the oppressors.
This is the same fundamental misunderstanding Trump has used in his "negotiations" with North Korea.
North Korea doesn't see themselves as a merchant trying to make life better for their citizens. They see themselves as an underdog in an ongoing fifty-year-long war with the United States. Trump is effectively trying to bring an end to Nazi Germany by trying to convince Hitler to instead pour his efforts into being a partner in a new potentially profitable condominium and golf resort.
I wish Trump luck but it's such a bizarre long-shot that it's both sad and comical. |
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| To: miraje who wrote (199273) | 6/13/2019 9:02:09 PM | | From: isopatch | | | | No problem. Let's agree to disagree. Though, everything would turn out much better for us all if you prove to be right.
Worth repeating the posted opinion UR replying to isn't political. It's based entirely on life long focus on reading the best historical research on economic, financial history, and other branches of history over many years. That perspective was the single most important edge during long career, as a professional investor. Had no idea that would be the case, 40-50 yrs ago. Life is full of surprises....
Worth repeating that I avoid politics on this board AWA my own thread. Have to leave it there. No time for back and forth.
Cheers,
Iso |
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| From: Black Blade | 6/14/2019 8:38:49 PM | | | | | | Baker Hughes: US rig count down 6 units to 969
..............................................................................................................................................................
HOUSTON, June 14
06/14/2019
By OGJ editors
The US drilling rig count fell 6 units, reaching 969 rigs working for the week ended June 14, according to Baker Hughes data. The count is down 90 units from the 1,059 rigs working this time a year ago.
The number of rigs drilling on land dropped 7 units week-over-week to a total of 941 units. The number of rigs drilling in inland waters was unchanged at 4 units for the week. The number of rigs drilling offshore increased by a single unit to 24.
US oil-directed rigs decreased by 1 from last week to reach 788 units. This time a year ago, 863 units were drilling for oil. Rigs targeting gas decreased by 5 units to reach 181 rigs, which was 13 fewer than were drilling for gas at this time a year ago.
Among the major oil and gas-producing states and for the second straight week, Texas dropped the largest number of rigs. At 467 rigs running, the count is 6 fewer than the previous week.
Wyoming and Alaska both dropped a single rig to reach 31 and 5 rigs running, respectively.
Ten states remained unchanged this week, namely New Mexico, 101; Oklahoma, 101; North Dakota, 56; Pennsylvania, 39; Colorado, 31; California, 18; West Virginia, 19; Ohio, 18; Utah, 6; and Arkansas, 0.
For the second week, Louisiana was the only state with an increase in rigs week over week. With an additional 2 rigs, the state saw 70 rigs running for the week ended June 14.
Canada’s rig count increased by 4 units for the week. At 107 rigs, the count is 32 fewer than the 139 units drilling this week a year ago. With 69 rigs drilling, Canada’s oil-directed rigs gained 10 units this week. Gas-directed rigs in Canada decreased by 6 units to reach 38. |
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| To: miraje who wrote (199273) | 6/15/2019 12:05:04 PM | | From: JimisJim | | | | There are no winners or losers in trade wars -- both sides lose the longer they continue and the general citizenry loses the most. Both China and Trump hold losing hands and the longer they keep betting, raising the bets and continuing the hand, the more both will lose ultimately -- and that's it -- that's all the politics I'm willing to endure for the day. I hate even commenting one way or another on a msg. link posted here from a very active political thread.
And just like nobody ever wins trade wars -- neither side -- nobody in the history of social media actually changed someone's mind about political or even religious beliefs just by posting about them. Nobody wins, and the rest of the thread members either pile on or have to ignore both/all sides of politics and religious questions.
So put me on record for being anti discussion of either topic from any "side" of them all. Too much, and some day, someone may notice I'm not around anymore -- at least the threads that fall under the above categories and only see everything from one perspective and won't even consider the other perspectives as valid, only targets to be flamed. |
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| To: JimisJim who wrote (199277) | 6/15/2019 12:26:46 PM | | From: kidl | | | | Ditto to your comments.
This part of your post looked after my morning smile requirement:
“Both China and Trump hold losing hands”
“The United States of Trump” … It’s coming! LOL |
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| To: JimisJim who wrote (199277) | 6/15/2019 12:42:22 PM | | From: miraje | | | | There are no winners or losers in trade wars
Of course there can be winners and losers in tariff disputes, just as in military wars. To be on topic with this thread, OPEC's policy decisions, which could be considered as trade wars, creates winners and losers in global energy markets, as well as in investment decisions that are discussed here.
I have no wish to drag politics into this thread, but I am cognizant of the fact that trade, economics and politics are intertwined, energy issues being no exception.
When Big Dog was actively monitoring this board, he would put a stop to egregious and often off topic political postings. Perhaps an active moderator might be needed here again, if OT postings get out of control.. |
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