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   Gold/Mining/EnergyBig Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: isopatch who wrote (199268)6/13/2019 12:21:46 PM
From: Elroy Jetson
1 Recommendation   of 203854
I see a "trade divorce" with China rather than a trade deal because China is not yet prepared to change and prosecute their laws in a way which upholds the rights of foreign IP owners - and in my opinion this is the key problem with China trade, not a trade imbalance. But US exports to China are so small the US has little to lose until this problem is addressed.

The FBI and Cyber Division created the criminal cases against ZTE, Huawei and additional companies yet to be announced during the Obama administration, which greatly cripples China's tech-based exports.

Trump has added import tariffs to this, which is mutually self-harming until businesses redirect their supply chains away from China. Lightheizer also wants a full disclosure of communist party funding to China's companies, numbers which I doubt even the Chinese leadership knows.

China's propaganda machine has pitched up a shrill anti-foreign campaign citing a 5,000 year history of imagined slights which have nothing to do with China today, but is quickly making life difficult for westerners living in China. In the process China's deliberate conflation of opposition to China's centrally-planned maoist-lenininst government as "Western racism" has made it largely impossible for them to concede to IP protection or allowing the the future imposition of tariffs or other penalties if China does not heed any agreement they sign.

Globally companies and the US military have prepared for a cut in exports of so called "rare earths" from China since 2012 when they briefly cut-off the supply to Japan. The US primary mine is 25% rare earths compared with the 0.625% purity in China's mines, and the US military has funded the development of a much cleaner and less costly process the separate the various elements from each other with a solvent and a series of mixing settling tanks being build currently at the California mine once owned by Chevron. Since 2012 a large portion of the "rare earth oxides" imported from China has gone into building stockpiles. Tailings from Florida's massive phosphate mines are a secondary source of a mind boggling quantity of "rare earths" - which contrary to the name aren't rare but as common as calcium and magnesium.

China is operating from a position of fundamental weakness having raised their pirate flag a couple of generations too soon. But their propaganda to their public have made it virtually impossible for them to come to the IP protecting trade terms we require. So it's a divorce.

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199269)6/13/2019 12:45:07 PM
From: isopatch
2 Recommendations   of 203854
Agree. China will not do "a deal", compromise or show any flexibility, let alone cave. They're an "Insular (aka Continental) Power". For centuries, historians have emphasized Continental Powers are inflexible compared to Island Nations or Island based empires such as the UK or Japan. So....

1. Unless Trump caves, almost entirely? Global economic conditions will worsen rapidly from here.

2. Unless Trump caves? A recession, perhaps a severe one, becomes very likely just before the 2020 election. Everybody knows how that plays out.

He will cave, period! And, of course, claim victory. Hey folks not being partisan. This is economics 101 "straight up".

Though now exactly the same as the infamous Smooth Haley Tariff? This huge strategic blunder is close enough to for me to usurp poetic license by abeling it Smooth Haley 2.0.

Trump will cave by early next year, at the latest.

All IMHO, of course.<g>


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To: isopatch who wrote (199270)6/13/2019 12:52:43 PM
From: Elroy Jetson
   of 203854
Long term US policy is an extension of what the US economy needs.

Trump may well be traitorous enough to cave to China's demands, but future presidents will continue to pursue US policy representing the needs of America's businesses and America's people.

Until China finds a way to adapt to the modern world of global trade, a trade divorce with the US is inevitable. Trump can only postpone it.

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199271)6/13/2019 1:00:56 PM
From: isopatch
   of 203854
<Long term US policy is an extension of what the US economy needs>

FWIW, been an advocate of The Economic Interpretation Of History, since reading excerpts from the work of Charles Beard when I was an undergraduate in the 60s. Active reading, in decades since only strengthened a knowledge base supporting that historical school of thought. Of course...))

<The Way Back Machine> shows how far into the primordial mists, even of pre-history, that reality extends.

Have to log off for awhile.



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To: isopatch who wrote (199270)6/13/2019 8:28:26 PM
From: miraje
   of 203854
China will not do "a deal", compromise or show any flexibility, let alone cave.

Disagree with that. China has much more to lose, the longer that this dispute goes on. Trump holds the trump cards, IMO..

Message 32182999

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To: miraje who wrote (199273)6/13/2019 9:00:25 PM
From: Elroy Jetson
3 Recommendations   of 203854
China probably does have a lot more to lose, but I'm not convinced they're currently rational in that way.

China has a long history of seeing their country as the victim of others in the world and is thus entitled to the intellectual property owned by others as some sort of reparations for past slights. A lot of this same victim justification runs through Russian society. China arrests their own citizens to use them fatally as organ donors because "victims" can justify any sort of barbarity as a natural response to their own past real or imagined hurts.

Both Russia and China have long operated major programs of industrial espionage without any sense of shame, because they see themselves in a fight against a world that is "rigged against them".

Of course it's their political suppression of their own scientists, intellectuals and entrepreneurs that keeps them at a perpetual disadvantage, but they truly don't understand this as they believe these most intelligent of people are primarily the source of anti-state agitation and plots.

China does have a very strong economic incentive to do a deal to protect foreign intellectual property, reveal the level of state subsidies to each of their government-owned industries, and halt the shift of their economy into a war machine - but instead their propaganda is preparing their population for "another Long March" to defeat the oppressors.

This is the same fundamental misunderstanding Trump has used in his "negotiations" with North Korea.

North Korea doesn't see themselves as a merchant trying to make life better for their citizens. They see themselves as an underdog in an ongoing fifty-year-long war with the United States. Trump is effectively trying to bring an end to Nazi Germany by trying to convince Hitler to instead pour his efforts into being a partner in a new potentially profitable condominium and golf resort.

I wish Trump luck but it's such a bizarre long-shot that it's both sad and comical.

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To: miraje who wrote (199273)6/13/2019 9:02:09 PM
From: isopatch
1 Recommendation   of 203854
No problem. Let's agree to disagree. Though, everything would turn out much better for us all if you prove to be right.

Worth repeating the posted opinion UR replying to isn't political. It's based entirely on life long focus on reading the best historical research on economic, financial history, and other branches of history over many years. That perspective was the single most important edge during long career, as a professional investor. Had no idea that would be the case, 40-50 yrs ago. Life is full of surprises....

Worth repeating that I avoid politics on this board AWA my own thread. Have to leave it there. No time for back and forth.



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From: Black Blade6/14/2019 8:38:49 PM
   of 203854
Baker Hughes: US rig count down 6 units to 969

HOUSTON, June 14
By OGJ editors

The US drilling rig count fell 6 units, reaching 969 rigs working for the week ended June 14, according to Baker Hughes data. The count is down 90 units from the 1,059 rigs working this time a year ago.

The number of rigs drilling on land dropped 7 units week-over-week to a total of 941 units. The number of rigs drilling in inland waters was unchanged at 4 units for the week. The number of rigs drilling offshore increased by a single unit to 24.

US oil-directed rigs decreased by 1 from last week to reach 788 units. This time a year ago, 863 units were drilling for oil. Rigs targeting gas decreased by 5 units to reach 181 rigs, which was 13 fewer than were drilling for gas at this time a year ago.

Among the major oil and gas-producing states and for the second straight week, Texas dropped the largest number of rigs. At 467 rigs running, the count is 6 fewer than the previous week.

Wyoming and Alaska both dropped a single rig to reach 31 and 5 rigs running, respectively.

Ten states remained unchanged this week, namely New Mexico, 101; Oklahoma, 101; North Dakota, 56; Pennsylvania, 39; Colorado, 31; California, 18; West Virginia, 19; Ohio, 18; Utah, 6; and Arkansas, 0.

For the second week, Louisiana was the only state with an increase in rigs week over week. With an additional 2 rigs, the state saw 70 rigs running for the week ended June 14.

Canada’s rig count increased by 4 units for the week. At 107 rigs, the count is 32 fewer than the 139 units drilling this week a year ago. With 69 rigs drilling, Canada’s oil-directed rigs gained 10 units this week. Gas-directed rigs in Canada decreased by 6 units to reach 38.

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To: miraje who wrote (199273)6/15/2019 12:05:04 PM
From: JimisJim
1 Recommendation   of 203854
There are no winners or losers in trade wars -- both sides lose the longer they continue and the general citizenry loses the most. Both China and Trump hold losing hands and the longer they keep betting, raising the bets and continuing the hand, the more both will lose ultimately -- and that's it -- that's all the politics I'm willing to endure for the day. I hate even commenting one way or another on a msg. link posted here from a very active political thread.

And just like nobody ever wins trade wars -- neither side -- nobody in the history of social media actually changed someone's mind about political or even religious beliefs just by posting about them. Nobody wins, and the rest of the thread members either pile on or have to ignore both/all sides of politics and religious questions.

So put me on record for being anti discussion of either topic from any "side" of them all. Too much, and some day, someone may notice I'm not around anymore -- at least the threads that fall under the above categories and only see everything from one perspective and won't even consider the other perspectives as valid, only targets to be flamed.

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To: JimisJim who wrote (199277)6/15/2019 12:26:46 PM
From: kidl
   of 203854
Ditto to your comments.

This part of your post looked after my morning smile requirement:
“Both China and Trump hold losing hands”

“The United States of Trump” … It’s coming! LOL

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