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   Technology StocksWestern Digital (WDC)


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To: go_gatrz who wrote (11029)5/17/2008 3:25:07 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz
   of 11057
 
gatrz, what a nice surprise. I occasionally look for you on yahoo WDC board, but it is just too polluted with idiots there.

So do think WDC has more up side in the share price ? I always thought Seagate is the better company, especially if I can buy the shares at a big discount to wdc. My assumption is Seagate's enterprise server business is much more protected from both price competition, and from encroachment from solid state. Apparently the market does not see it this way.

I'm glad you are doing well, and wish you continued success. I'll look foreward to reading your posts. Were you in the computer hardware selling business ? Are you still in that ?

Sarmad

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (11030)5/18/2008 1:55:43 PM
From: go_gatrz
   of 11057
 
No changes in what I do: still a reseller (services & hardware). Still work 7-6 most days.

Do I think WDC still has more upside? Since I still own it, yes. But since you've taken up STX again, ask yourself why did you buy STX? If you are like me, its because you see it as undervalued. And if you compare STX EPS to WDC EPS and their respective multiples, you will find they are today still equally undervalued. So if there is valuation logic behind buying STX, the same will apply to WDC.

But it would be foolish to ignore the fact that WDC is now trading at 10-yr highs. Let's ignore for the moment that EPS are at historic records (not just 10-yr). Being at these highs makes it susceptible to greater manipulation - and price swings. Thus, I sold off some newly acquired shares on Friday. But I still have plenty left (some from when you left).

As for what do I see for STX & WDC?

As for STX, I recently posted some viewpoints on the Yahoo STX board. The links are provided below - I'm not sure SI will allow them.

Seagate has some issues to work through, and I can't tell you how it will work out - yet. They have been somewhat of a puzzle to me. Your assumption about STX's enterprise business may not be all clear. There are some near-term challenges - from SSD, competitors, themselves - and WDC is on the horizon. Watch for something from WDC in the next qtr. I don't see a demise for STX, but it will not be as easy going forward as it has been for the last 2 years.

As for WDC, they are hitting on every cylinder plus a few. They got whacked after the last CC, but that was pure BS just like all the other times. The sharks never rest. That pothole has already been erased by a wide margin. They still have margin gains to come from Komag, the notebook business is surging beyond expectations, and they now have the areal density leadership in both 2.5" & 3.5". The world has been turned upside down, Capt. Jack Swallow!

So what do I think is coming next? First, I don't think business was or is as bad as many of the ANALysts wanted to make it sound. Also, maybe - just maybe - the elephants are coming to the realization that the storage sector IS HOT and that there is plenty of money to be made. And that is more true in HDD than any other segment. If so, then valuations should rise from their pathetic 8.5x to at least something over 10x. Heaven forbid we should ever see just plain old average tech multiples of 15x.

This is where I think the next stock price increase is going to come from - a valuation increase. The sharks will justify it simply because they can. If so, then both STX & WDC will benefit.

__________________________
Links for STX:
messages.finance.yahoo.com

messages.finance.yahoo.com

messages.finance.yahoo.com

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To: go_gatrz who wrote (11031)7/23/2010 1:54:05 PM
From: Brazilian Investor
   of 11057
 
As for WDC, they are hitting on every cylinder plus a few. They got whacked after the last CC, but that was pure BS just like all the other times. The sharks never rest. That pothole has already been erased by a wide margin. They still have margin gains to come from Komag, the notebook business is surging beyond expectations, and they now have the areal density leadership in both 2.5" & 3.5". The world has been turned upside down, Capt. Jack Swallow!

I couldn't agree more with you. I read your posts on the Yahoo board but the level of the comments there is unbelievably low. I just got into WDC this week by adding positions at both $31.05 and $28.7 and I don't regret it.

WDC's reputation is not stained, unlike Seagate or Hitachi. To prove my point? What is the best rated HDD manufacturer of internal and external hard drives? Western Digital.

So what do I think is coming next? First, I don't think business was or is as bad as many of the ANALysts wanted to make it sound. Also, maybe - just maybe - the elephants are coming to the realization that the storage sector IS HOT and that there is plenty of money to be made. And that is more true in HDD than any other segment. If so, then valuations should rise from their pathetic 8.5x to at least something over 10x. Heaven forbid we should ever see just plain old average tech multiples of 15x.

The world is in an increasing demand for more storage. Even if analysts were to say the future is in solid state media, there is still a lot to happen for them to reach the high storage density and low price point of regular hard drives.

Some analysts are saying that the regular hard drive business is dead due to devices like the Apple iPad coming into play and the usage of cloud computing, which IMO further re-iterates my previous point about high density and low cost.

I think that right now that my predictions, or anyone else's for that matter, is purely speculation based on human psychiatric patterns and not on actual financial statistics. Because if the latter was the case, I wouldn't be seeing WDC hit a 52-week low today.

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To: Brazilian Investor who wrote (11032)7/23/2010 2:36:28 PM
From: Cheeky Kid
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Samsung is a big player in the HDD market too. I don't know what the best drive is, they are all prone to failure. Anything with that many moving parts is going to die one day. Over the past 25 years I had 8 hard drives fail on me, all brands.

Hard Drives
reviews.cnet.com

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To: Brazilian Investor who wrote (11032)7/24/2010 10:47:48 PM
From: Mark O. Halverson
   of 11057
 
Nice to see someone on the board, after two plus years of no posts. Western Digital is incredibly cash rich and doing extremely well at present. Unfortunately, even with record earnings and revenues, the numbers fell short of expectations, so naturally the stock was pummeled. There seems to be a mindset around that solid state will take over from hard disk storage, rendering disk storage obsolete. I don't buy it. There's ample need for both types. Solid state will keep encroaching re server market and for rapid PC boot up. But for video, movies and other mass storage it won't replace the hard disk for a long, long time, if ever. Once all this is realized I think WDC will bounce back strongly. By the way,I'm long on WDC, STX, SNDK and MU.

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From: d9/27/2010 6:26:21 PM
   of 11057
 
eweek.com

Per the above, and contrary to claims of others, the Apple iPad is NOT cannibalizing sales of laptop PC's. This takes away ONE of the reasons that shares of WDC are being dumped.

d

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To: Mark O. Halverson who wrote (11034)12/30/2012 7:43:54 PM
From: Gottfried
   of 11057
 
WDC is one of 10 stocks added to the NDX Dec 24.2012 nasdaq.com

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From: zax9/10/2014 10:43:24 AM
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Western Digital's HGST subsidiary today announced it's shipping its first 8TB and the world's first 10TB helium-filled hard drive. The 3.5-in, 10TB drive also marks HGST's first foray into the use of singled magnetic recording technology, which Seagate began using last year. Unlike standard perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR), where data tracks rest side by side, SMR overlaps the tracks on a platter like shingles on a roof, thereby allowing a higher areal density. Seagate has said SMR technology will allow it to achieve 20TB drives by 2020. That company has yet to use helium, however. HGST said its use of hermetically-sealed helium drives reduces friction among moving drive components and keeps dust out. Both drives use a 7-platter configuration with a 7200 RPM spindle speed. The company said it plans to discontinue its production of air-only drives by 2017, replacing all data center models with helium drives.

via SlashDot

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From: FJB11/13/2015 9:41:43 AM
   of 11057
 
ReRAM Gains Steam

semiengineering.com

New memory finds a lucrative niche between other existing memory types as competition grows.

Resistive RAM appears to be gaining traction. Once considered a universal memory candidate—a replacement for DRAM, flash and SRAM—ReRAM is carving out a niche between DRAM and storage-class memory. Now the question is how large that niche ultimately becomes and whether other competing technologies rush into that space.

ReRAM (known alternately as RRAM), is a type of non-volatile memory that began garnering attention in 2009 when startup Unity Semiconductor emerged from stealth mode. Rambus bought Unity in 2012 because it was one of several contenders for the next generation of memory technology, along with ferroelectric RAM (FeRAM) and Magnetoresistive RAM. ReRAM also has been considered a possible replacement for 2D NAND, NOR flash, and other memory types.

Since then, multiple competitors have entered into the ReRAM business, which seems to validate the potential here.

“I have worked in memory all my career, and for years it was looked down upon as boring,” said Gary Bronner, vice president of Rambus Labs. “Today it is leading innovation. It’s very exciting.”

He’s not alone in that view. “It’s a really exciting time to be in the memory business,” said Sylvian Dubois, vice president of strategic marketing at Crossbar.

What makes ReRAM so interesting is the limitation of other memory choices. There is DRAM for rapid access memory; NAND flash, which is three orders of magnitude slower; and there is storage-class memory in between. Storage-class memory, a term first coined by IBM several years ago, could have a huge impact on computation efficiency.

“I believe that the gap could be filled by two or three different types of ReRam, and could see a real reduction in the volume of DRAM being used,” Bronner said. “This would have very significant impact on the industry. Architects have been very clever at taking advantage of developments. They already take advantage of hierarchy of memory on chip and chip to chip.”

There is a decent list of alternative memory types that all rely upon a bi-stable material as the storage element that changes resistance. Rambus is working with a multilayer metal oxide structure that changes resistance by injecting ions into the material.

Crossbar uses silver atoms suspended in an amorphous silicon matrix. Under write voltage, atoms from a top silver layer migrate into the matrix to form bridges of conductive metal filaments. “These filaments are only 3nm in diameter, but create a very large on/off ratio,” Dubois said. The company has published results for a 7nm read cell.

The other option that has been widely publicized involves phase-change materials, which depend on melting a material and then cooling, quickly or slowly, to create either crystalline or amorphous phases. In terms of these materials choices, Bronner observed that “the physics of the phase change material is probably the best understood.”

However, thermal-based solutions have had a rocky history in the semiconductor industry, from Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) to smectic liquid crystal displays. The problem is that heat spreads, so there is crosstalk between neighbors and DC heating of the part that depends on duty cycle.

“Many people have favored other materials over phase change for these reasons,” Bronner said. “However, Intel and Micron have pioneered work in these materials, presumably because the device physics is much better understood.”

In the end heat may limit the phase change device to lower bandwidths and higher power, according to Dubois.

In addition to material choices, there also are architectural choices. Although crossbars have received a lot of publicity, a 1 transistor-1 storage cell similar to DRAM is where many are starting, particularly for embedded memory. It makes integration much simpler and gives the best access times.

“You can add the new material after the conventional device processing is completed,” Bronner said.

Crossbars give higher density and single bit access, but are limited in the size of each block of crossbars. This is a similar problem to the old multiplexed displays, where the cell count depends on the non-linearity of the on-off switch.

The third choice is a 3D stack. One possibility is multilayers of crossbars, but this requires lithography at each layer. More interesting, in Bronner’s view, is “an equivalent to 3D NAND, where one litho step creates a vertical string of storage cells. 3D NAND will allow flash to continue to scale for five to seven years, and then new materials will have an opportunity.”

The penalty for storage in the form of strings is that there is no longer single-bit access, so the memory slows down. Different access times and cost structure could result from single bit, byte, and multi-byte architectures.

Dubois emphasized that crossbars and 3D all require a multiplexed 1 transistor to N cell architecture, which in turn means that each cell must have a non-linear element. Some teams use a diode with each cell, but Crossbar has demonstrated a cell that has its own non-linearity.

Who and what will win?
“The most impressive progress was disclosed by the Intel/Micron partnership over the summer when they described a 128Gbit chip 3D XPoint” memory,” said Bronner. “To even think about building a device of this size, requires a very mature level of process and defect control.”

Intel had a previous false start with phase-change memory. The company made it clear that the technology has shifted, but has not elaborated on that, according to industry sources.

A search of the U.S. Patent and Trade Office patent application database found crossbar memory materials patents applications as recently as 2012 assigned to Micron that focused on metal chalcogenide phase change systems, which suggests that 3D XPoint may well be an improved phase change system.

In its announcement Intel claimed “a crossbar structure which is 1,000 times faster than NAND flash and 10 times the density of DRAM.” The company also showed a patterned wafer, discussed an operational manufacturing plant in Utah, and said it plans to sell product next year.

Panasonic currently sells a tantalum oxide-based ReRam embedded flash replacement for on-chip static memory.

Rambus purchased the ReRam IP of Unity Semiconductor in 2012 for$33M, and has licensed that IPto a number of parties. Unity had raised more than $22M and created 145 patents.

“Rambus is also partnering with licensees, such as Tezzaron, to create embedded flash products,” Bronner said. “The focus of licensing is architecture and materials.”

A patent search suggests those materials are metal oxides.

Elsewhere, in the startup world, Crossbar announced on Sept. 14 that it has completed a $35 million Series D funding round, bringing the total investment so far to $85 million. Crossbar plans to use the funds to continue the commercial ramp of its “game-changing non-volatile (NVM) memory technology.” At IEDM in 2014, the company reported a device architecture that “has been successfully demonstrated in a 4 Mbit integrated 3D stackable passive crossbar array.”

Dubois said Crossbar received wafers from one of its production manufacturing partners. “The new funding will allow us to put products with embedded RAM on the shelves and move Crossbar forward.”

It appears that differences between the various competitors are primarily in their storage material choices that determine power, access time, read/write cycles and cell size. This is a competition that requires deep pockets, and smaller players are relying on being able to use existing fabs to compete with the industry giants who can bankroll a custom fab.

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From: more1001/29/2016 9:07:14 AM
   of 11057
 
Western Digital (WDC) reported above-consensus non-GAAP earnings per share for its second quarter, while its revenues were about in line.

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