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   Strategies & Market TrendsShorts waiting to happen


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To: Richard Roman Kowalski who wrote (826)12/1/1997 11:05:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
INFU: Chart looks like it has paused. Might come down to about 5 and then jump up again. Possibly manipulated.

SHEL: You can short if it bounces back up to 17 or more.

AOL: Although I sincerely believe that this company is basically screwed and in the long term you can only make money shorting it, this may not be the best time. This is a stock I keep my eye on, and I'll certainly let everyone know when it's time to short this guy.

CTXS: Weakening. Wait for sharp downward move.

BFIT, AMZN: I see no weakness yet.

ZITL: Too late to short this. Might reverse. Let's see then.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (825)12/1/1997 11:22:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
THE OMEN

Dear shorters...I often speak about omens in the charts. What are omens?

An omen is an unmistakable sign that confirms your suspicions. It's a sign you have been waiting for.

A sign that something is changing in the company.

Take the classical example of ASND.

ASND went from $1 to $80 in a matter of 2 years. A phenomenal 80 bagger. All this time ASND's weekly chart was one straight line. People used to say: "Ascend will never descend" Then in mid 1996 something changed. Instead of moving in it's characteristic straight line, it began to turn into a circular round hilly shape. That was weird. ASND then made it's first fall. Everyone jumped in to buy the stock at the cheaper price. I had wanted to buy ASND for a long time, but when this opportunity presented itself, I chose not to. The reason was simple. This was not my ASND. ASND recovered and went about as if nothing had happened. But I then waited and watched for a sharp downward move that would come without warning. It came. That was the omen. I predicted ASND had turned around and would systematically break down. It did.

Success in shorting (or even longing) shares is based on your ability to correctly recognise the omens. To do this you must follow the stocks movement until you are intimately familiar with it. You must sense it's vibrations until you know the stock. After that, when something changes, you will sense the change and take appropriate action. With practice, the time required for this familiarity will reduce, esp. if you are following other stocks in the same industry.

Also, always follow the index the stock is listed in, eg. NASDAQ for tech stocks...

Once you get the hang of reading omens, you can read charts faster and much more accurately without knowing what is a bollinger band etc.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (829)12/2/1997 2:57:00 AM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
RE:" You can also expect your broker to call your shorts soon."

Why would you assume this?

Greg

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To: Greg Butcher who wrote (832)12/2/1997 12:18:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
I'm not assuming...When liquidity is low, it just happens sooner or later. What happens is that the person who's stock was effectivley borrowed elects to sell but your broker has already sold it (through you) so it has to be recalled, so that the original owner can sell.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (833)12/2/1997 3:21:00 PM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
Cad, thank you for the explanation....I was assuming if I had the cash to keep holding and it would be my option to cover. just one more thing to be aware of...thank you.

Greg

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To: Cadaver who wrote (833)12/5/1997 11:40:00 AM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
Cad, Are you still short ASND..I would cover..looks like LU is going to offer a 40.00 a share bid to buy them out.

Greg

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To: Greg Butcher who wrote (835)12/5/1997 10:30:00 PM
From: advinfo
   of 852
 

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To: Greg Butcher who wrote (835)12/9/1997 4:18:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
I will cover ASND if it crosses 30 like I said before.

LU has not bid publicly as far as I know.

I dont think ASND is going to accept LU or anyone else's bid.

Just a feeling.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (837)12/9/1997 4:39:00 PM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
Cad, I went short on MEH at 33 1/2 good news came out today pushing it up 1 1/4..it had a nice Island Reversal....a pattern that I see
always taking a stock down. If I could ask your opinion please..what do you think of the chart? below is the news that came out today.

12/09 06:59 Midwest Express Holdings Reports Record November Traffic For Jet
Operations

MILWAUKEE, Dec. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Midwest Express Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: MEH) today reported November traffic data for Midwest Express Airlines and Skyway Airlines, highlighted by a 20% increase in traffic on a 7% increase in capacity for its jet operations.

"Both the industry and Midwest Express continued to benefit from strong travel demand and a higher fare environment in November," said Timothy E. Hoeksema, chairman and chief executive officer of the Milwaukee-based airline holding company. "We posted record jet revenue passenger miles, available seat miles and passengers boarded, as well as a 6.8 percentage point increase in load factor."

Midwest Express Airlines

Midwest Express Airlines' revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 19.9% for the month of November 1997 to 109.2 million from 91.0 million in November 1996. Available seat miles (ASMs) increased 7.1% to 172.8 million from 161.4 million ASMs in the same month last year. Load factor was 63.2% in November, up from 56.4% a year earlier. Passengers boarded increased 15.8% to 128,276 from 110,790 in the same month last year.

For the first 11 months of 1997, Midwest Express reported a 13.5% increase in RPMs to 1.3 billion from 1.1 billion in the first 11 months of 1996. ASMs increased 12.4% to 2.0 billion from 1.8 billion in the same period a year ago. Load factor for the 11-month period was 64.1%, up from 63.5% last year. Passenger boardings were up 10.8% to 1,513,892 from 1,366,911 in the comparable period last year.

Skyway Airlines

For the month of November 1997, Skyway Airlines, The Midwest Express Connection, reported 5.3 million RPMs, a 2.4% increase from 5.1 million in November last year. ASMs for the month decreased 1.5% to 12.3 million from 12.5 million a year earlier. Load factor for November was 42.8%, up from 41.1% in November of 1996. Passengers boarded during the month decreased 0.5% to 23,199 from 23,312 a year ago. Skyway results were impacted by one fewer aircraft in scheduled service year over year, with one aircraft currently used for maintenance programs.

For the first 11 months, Skyway Airlines posted a 3.3% decrease in RPMs to 63.9 million from 66.1 million in the same period of 1996. ASMs decreased 1.6% to 145.9 million from 148.2 million in the comparable period a year ago. Load factor for the first 11 months was 43.8%, down from 44.6% last year. Passenger boardings were down 4.4% for the 11-month period to 287,679 from 300,904 in 1996.

Midwest Express Holdings, Inc. is the holding company for Midwest Express Airlines, a premium-service airline headquartered in Milwaukee. Operating since 1984, Midwest Express Airlines caters primarily to business travelers and serves 23 cities throughout the United States and Toronto, from its bases of operations in Milwaukee and Omaha, Nebraska. Astral Aviation, Inc. -- a wholly owned subsidiary of Midwest Express Airlines -- operates Skyway Airlines, which serves 25 cities, providing passengers with connections to Midwest Express Airlines' jet service and point-to-point service between select markets. Midwest Express Holdings is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MEH. More information is available at www.midwestexpress.com.

MIDWEST EXPRESS HOLDINGS, INC.
Traffic Statistics
Monthly Results*
November

1997 1996 % Change
Passengers Boarded:
Midwest Express Airlines 128,276 110,790 15.8%
Skyway Airlines 23,199 23,312 -0.5%

RPMs:
Midwest Express Airlines 109,184,621 91,044,857 19.9%
Skyway Airlines 5,254,945 5,129,692 2.4%

ASMs:
Midwest Express Airlines 172,787,620 161,361,176 7.1%
Skyway Airlines 12,276,377 12,466,971 -1.5%

Load Factor:
Midwest Express Airlines 63.2% 56.4% 6.8 pts.
Skyway Airlines 42.8% 41.1% 1.7 pts.

Year-to-Date Results*
Eleven Months Ended November
1997 1996 % Change
Passengers Boarded:
Midwest Express Airlines 1,513,892 1,366,911 10.8%
Skyway Airlines 287,679 300,904 -4.4%

RPMs:
Midwest Express
Airlines 1,289,526,882 1,136,076,886 13.5%
Skyway Airlines 63,896,362 66,080,208 -3.3%

ASMs:
Midwest Express
Airlines 2,010,792,884 1,788,725,604 12.4%
Skyway Airlines 145,896,411 148,196,247 -1.6%

Load Factor:
Midwest Express Airlines 64.1% 63.5% 0.6 pts.
Skyway Airlines 43.8% 44.6% -0.8 pts.

* Scheduled Service Operations

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To: Greg Butcher who wrote (838)12/10/1997 8:34:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
Greg....I dont get your strategy. why would you short something that has a saucer shape? Saucers are bullish. Umbrellas are bearish.

MEH is supported by 20 day and 50 day moving avgs.

Good news etc. is immaterial.

Haven't you read headlines like: "Dow rises inspite of employment numbers" and "Dow falls on employment numbers" in the same newspaper?
Fact of the matter is one can never know all the fundamentals. But one certainly has access to all the technicals.

Let me put it this way:
News will affect stock price only if the stock is ready for it.

Dont worry about news. It doesnt mean a thing as far as immediate price is concerned. News only affects the long run.

Use this rule for shorting 3 months or longer:
Wait till the price falls below 50 day moving avg. There must be at least one sharp downward move. The 50 dma must not be just above the 200 dma. Sometimes, the price cuts thru the 50 but bounces off the 200 dma.

Use this rule for shorting less than 3 months:
You can also short during corrections of a rapidly rising stock. What happens is that the stock is still strong, but is currently overbought. If the chart looks parabolic and if nearly every buyer is thrilled at how much money they've made in that stock, then it is a good candidate for correction shorting. When the stock goes parabolic, wait until it opens with a large gap up. Short the stock within 15 minutes of open. It will likely crash to just below the previous day's open. Cover in a couple of days when the volume shrinks.

-Cadaver

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