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   Strategies & Market TrendsShorts waiting to happen


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To: Peter Yang who wrote (824)11/27/1997 2:51:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
Technical reasons.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (825)11/29/1997 12:29:00 PM
From: Richard Roman Kowalski
   of 852
 
Cadaver,

Good name! If someone doesn't make the connection between your name
and "shorts" they should give up on this thread.

Here's my list of shorts, simply based on surfing SI
and reading opinions of fellow SI subscribers. Below are
short candidates that keep reappearing...

INFU
SHEL
AOL
CTXS
BFIT
AMZN
ZITL

>>Richard

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To: Cadaver who wrote (825)11/29/1997 7:45:00 PM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
Cad, yesterday I tried to short more shares of INFU I already have 1500 and they kept telling me none was available. What kind of a sign is this? I would think thats good unless that also means that since you can no longer short there is less pressure that can be put on the down side. ????what do you think?

Greg

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To: Cadaver who wrote (797)12/1/1997 10:38:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
*** BULL ALERT ****

Ok boys...time to buy some stocks. The entire correction is over and you can expect a good run up from here. Ignore all the stuff about S.E. Asia etc., those economies were screwed up too long ago to make any significant difference.

Long term Shopping list:

MSFT: Buy this dude. Good for another 5 yrs at least.

IOM: Buy on weakness. Good for a year at least.

DELL: Buy. Good for a couple more years.

***SHORT MENU***
Ok, here's the real glamorous stuff. Longs are boring compared to the
thrill of the shorts...

SHARP MOVE ALERT:
ASND: Very small chance of reversal. No need to be concerned unless it crosses 30. Note that ASND is perceived as really cheap at these prices (It probably is). But most likely it will fail to move up and will move down sharply.

PAIR: Bad omen on today's chart. See the lower lows and lower highs. PAIR is getting killed when the rest are being revived. This is usually an unmistakable omen of a stock's ill health.

-Cadaver

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To: Greg Butcher who wrote (827)12/1/1997 10:50:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
INFU:
today's volume was only 2000 shares....2000? At 5 bucks that's 10000 worth of trades. That's dismal in terms of liquidity. It is common not to find shares to short on low liquid stocks. You can also expect your broker to call your shorts soon.

Shorting Risks:
1. Low liquidity: A player with sufficient financial muscle can push this stock as high or low as he pleases. Reading charts give unpredictable results.

2. Low price: For both long and short, low price can mean high profits or losses.

3. Splits, takeovers and other acts of god: Basically if you are on the wrong end, you die a terrible agonizing death.

The key to making money in shorting is to minimize risks. Risks must be taken, but they must be deliberate and calculated.

-Cadaver

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To: Richard Roman Kowalski who wrote (826)12/1/1997 11:05:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
INFU: Chart looks like it has paused. Might come down to about 5 and then jump up again. Possibly manipulated.

SHEL: You can short if it bounces back up to 17 or more.

AOL: Although I sincerely believe that this company is basically screwed and in the long term you can only make money shorting it, this may not be the best time. This is a stock I keep my eye on, and I'll certainly let everyone know when it's time to short this guy.

CTXS: Weakening. Wait for sharp downward move.

BFIT, AMZN: I see no weakness yet.

ZITL: Too late to short this. Might reverse. Let's see then.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (825)12/1/1997 11:22:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
THE OMEN

Dear shorters...I often speak about omens in the charts. What are omens?

An omen is an unmistakable sign that confirms your suspicions. It's a sign you have been waiting for.

A sign that something is changing in the company.

Take the classical example of ASND.

ASND went from $1 to $80 in a matter of 2 years. A phenomenal 80 bagger. All this time ASND's weekly chart was one straight line. People used to say: "Ascend will never descend" Then in mid 1996 something changed. Instead of moving in it's characteristic straight line, it began to turn into a circular round hilly shape. That was weird. ASND then made it's first fall. Everyone jumped in to buy the stock at the cheaper price. I had wanted to buy ASND for a long time, but when this opportunity presented itself, I chose not to. The reason was simple. This was not my ASND. ASND recovered and went about as if nothing had happened. But I then waited and watched for a sharp downward move that would come without warning. It came. That was the omen. I predicted ASND had turned around and would systematically break down. It did.

Success in shorting (or even longing) shares is based on your ability to correctly recognise the omens. To do this you must follow the stocks movement until you are intimately familiar with it. You must sense it's vibrations until you know the stock. After that, when something changes, you will sense the change and take appropriate action. With practice, the time required for this familiarity will reduce, esp. if you are following other stocks in the same industry.

Also, always follow the index the stock is listed in, eg. NASDAQ for tech stocks...

Once you get the hang of reading omens, you can read charts faster and much more accurately without knowing what is a bollinger band etc.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (829)12/2/1997 2:57:00 AM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
RE:" You can also expect your broker to call your shorts soon."

Why would you assume this?

Greg

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To: Greg Butcher who wrote (832)12/2/1997 12:18:00 PM
From: Cadaver
   of 852
 
I'm not assuming...When liquidity is low, it just happens sooner or later. What happens is that the person who's stock was effectivley borrowed elects to sell but your broker has already sold it (through you) so it has to be recalled, so that the original owner can sell.

-Cadaver

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To: Cadaver who wrote (833)12/2/1997 3:21:00 PM
From: Greg Butcher
   of 852
 
Cad, thank you for the explanation....I was assuming if I had the cash to keep holding and it would be my option to cover. just one more thing to be aware of...thank you.

Greg

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