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   Technology StocksAavid Thermal Technologies (AATT)


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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (159)7/23/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: James Perry
   of 185
 
The time is not normal. Investment monies flow into mutual funds,
which tend to be invested in blue chip stocks. But as money continues
to flow in, those stocks are priced to unsupportable levels. Small
cap stocks are still pretty much disregarded, and the next attention
grabber is the stocks with surging prices. It is always true that good performance is rewarded, and that poor performance is punished, but the momentum investor carries that to insane levels. We see internet stocks priced at levels that make the inflated prices of Holland tulips seem downright cheap. And here we have a stock whose revenue will decrease to an unknown extent. It grew nearly 50% last year, and it will not grow that much next year. Intel will change her order pattern. It remains to be seen whether she will pick up the orders of some of the "cheap" computer makers, but with good management and good product, that seems likely. It seems that at worst there is some uncertainty. To price that at 50% of the value of the company is downright ridiculous, but when the momentum boys dump their holdings, such is the absurd result. A fine time to buy. At worst, you might have to hold a year or two to make a bundle.

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To: James Perry who wrote (160)7/23/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Peter J. Santiago
   of 185
 
I have been watching this stock for only a couple of days. I am in a trading group and I must say the word is that the MM MONT has been really manipulating this stock. If anyone on this thread knows the company's phone number it would be well worth passing this information on.

I personally have no choice but to hold a few thousand shares at this point. I bought in at 14. I do believe that this stock will rebound but I feel it may take a month or two. IMHO (Rebound to like 18).

Any comments would be appreciated.

Regards,

Peter

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To: Peter J. Santiago who wrote (161)7/23/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Arthur
   of 185
 
Peter,

First, I never heard of AATT until yesterday, but I look for these
tech stock massacres to buy oversold stock. One used to be able to
get an immediate trading bounce by buying right before the market
close on the massacre day and then selling right away the next
morning, but that seems to be getting harder to do. Todays peak
over the previous close was only 5/16, whereas I used to be able
to get at least twice that routinely. So now I wait a while after
the massacre day to buy. Most of the time these stocks continue to
decline for at least another 10 days or so, but sometimes it is as
few as 5 or so. Look at the graphs of SMOD, BMC, HAKI, CYTC for
recent examples. The good news is these stocks almost invariably
rebound nicely (though there are the unfortunate exceptions) but I
think you are right it could easily be several weeks before we see
Wednesday's price levels again. This company looks pretty good
to me and I plan to buy in the next week or so.

Good luck,
Art

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To: Peter J. Santiago who wrote (161)7/25/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: James Perry
   of 185
 
I think it is a good trade at this point, and an even better
long term holding. The need for heat sinks will increase, and
while changes at Intel might cause some shift in their buying
(as AATT has warned), the price drop was overdone and I certainly
anticipate that there will be other customers coming into the
buying market, with all the cheap PCs being sold. Also, I have no
question that the MM is playing games, although I do note that a
lot of momentum players dumped shares at the warning announcement.
Heavy trading, then. As noted earlier, I doubled my position then.

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To: James Perry who wrote (163)7/30/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: denekin
   of 185
 
Since those of us who own this stock seem to have died and gone to Hell, maybe we should all open up and share our feelings on our experience...maybe we shouldn't

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To: denekin who wrote (164)7/30/1998 9:54:00 PM
From: DENNIS TULLY
   of 185
 
TO: All AATT'ers

I'll Open Up.......

I need 28 to get even...

Had a sell in for 40..

So, I missed it.

I'll keep on for a while. The volatility "MAY" swing.

The various stocks that are now "Out of Favour"

May be "IN" in the next Quarter.

Let's see...................................

Tul

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To: DENNIS TULLY who wrote (165)8/6/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: H.A.H.
   of 185
 
Just heard from the Yahoo board:

from BRIEFING.COM:

Aavid Thermal Technologies Inc. (AATT) 10 3/4 +9/16: DLJ
upgrades provider of thermal management solutions for microprocessors and integrated circuits from
"market perform" to "buy" based on valuation; the stock has
pulled back more than 75% off its 52-week high; has good prospects for steady diversified growth; has a $25 a
share
price target.....

Have a good day everyone.

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To: H.A.H. who wrote (166)8/8/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Gary105
   of 185
 
Looking for info: can someone comment on trend to computer manufacturers - who were they selling to before - circuit board makers, chip makers? they also imply they have a very large customer. Who is it?

Thanks,

Gary

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To: Gary105 who wrote (167)8/8/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare
   of 185
 
The company's large customer that you refer to is Intel. The recent drop in the stock's price was in a large part due to a sudden cutback in orders from Intel. The current trend toward under $1,000 PCs has hurt Intel in the short term because they mostly supply chips for more expensive computers. I have seen articles lately that speculate that the trend toward less expensive computers may have peaked. At any rate, AATT has stated in their press releases that they are pursuing the makers of under $1,000 PCs.

CONCORD, N.H.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 21, 1998--

Aavid Chairman and CEO Ronald F. Borelli said, ''I am extremely pleased with Aavid's strong performance which outpaced the industry in the second quarter. This was achieved during difficult market conditions that adversely affected many of our customers. The quality and productivity initiatives that we have been putting in place contributed to the company's strong showing and we received better than expected revenues from our largest customer which offset some of the soft demand being experienced in the semiconductor industry overall.

''We experienced increased revenues from our largest customer in the second quarter, but the most recent forecasts which we just received indicate that third quarter shipments will be lower, due to changing product mix and demand,'' Borelli stated.

Borelli continued, ''While Aavid is well positioned to continue to play an important role in supplying our largest customer with new products, this sudden change in demand will most likely lead to a sequential decline in revenues in the current quarter for Aavid. Our Fluent and Applied subsidiaries should continue to deliver results in line with expectations. Overall, based on current market conditions and customer forecasts, we expect to see an interruption to our long-term growth trend in the third and to a lesser extent, the fourth quarter.

''The increased market share and price pressures of the sub-$1000 personal computer have shifted the point of purchase for many thermal solutions directly to computer manufacturers. However, as the personal computer market recovers, Aavid is well positioned to take advantage of the shift of thermal management to computer manufacturers and capture this business. Aavid made major penetration into the top eight global personal computer manufacturers during the second quarter, which will support this effort.

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To: W Shakespeare who wrote (168)8/13/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare
   of 185
 
Just bought some more AATT at 10 1/2. With a PE ratio below ten and all future expectations beaten out of the stock, I felt it was a good time to buy for the long term. However, with a bear market in small caps, who really knows where the short-term bottom is for anything.

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