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   Technology StocksAavid Thermal Technologies (AATT)


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To: W Shakespeare who wrote (150)7/22/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Jeff Mulder
   of 185
 
Everyone remember this press release? It's only 7 weeks old:

Aavid Thermal Technologies Sees Performance On-track; Company Expects To Outpace Electronic Industry Performance

Business Wire - June 02, 1998 15:13

CONCORD, N.H.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 2, 1998--Aavid Thermal Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:AATT) management stated today that its business remains strong and on track with expectations. Ronald F. Borelli, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "The recent weakness in our stock, including the substantial decline on Monday June 1, 1998 has no direct correlation with the business conditions the Company is experiencing. The growing need for heat dissipation in a broad array of computer and communications components and systems is creating new opportunities and growing demand for our products."

Borelli continued, "In our most recent quarter, ended March 31 1998, our revenues grew 62% and our EPS increased 59%, both well in excess of the
electronic industry in general. We expect to significantly outpace the industry's performance again this quarter."

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (152)7/22/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: DD™
   of 185
 
Where did he fib? <gg>.

Seriously, I take with a grain of salt the cooments management makes to the price of their stock.

What are they going to say, insiders dumping because of weak prospects?

On second thought, they could have at least made a comment of weak demand going forward. <gg>.

DD

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (152)7/22/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare
   of 185
 
If you can believe what management is now saying, the cutback in orders from Intel hit them as a major surprise. The most recent quarter is in line with what management said it would be. We will have to wait and see what June's insider trading is like to assess management's credibility.

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To: W Shakespeare who wrote (154)7/22/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Mighty_Mezz
   of 185
 
Browsing the threads and noticed this has not yet been posted here.
DLJ and NB Montgomery both downgraded AATT today.
quicken.excite.com

This could be cause of selloff.

No position in AATT, just passing on some info. Hope it's of value.

Good luck and good trades.

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To: Mighty_Mezz who wrote (155)7/22/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: James Perry
   of 185
 
Of course. It is a sign of a broker's prowess that he downgrades his past recommendation at the first sign of bad news!! Moral? Step in and BUY! I doubled my position before noon today. May have overpaid by half a buck, but not long term.

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To: James Perry who wrote (156)7/22/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: wpckr
   of 185
 
What's happening here seems to indicate that the market is really controlled by a bunch of knee-jerking maniacs. I for one have to believe that our aatt stock will recover to 20 over the next month. But after that it will take some really good news to move it up again. I'm stickin' around and may well add to my position at the open. Would like to see another statement from the pres..

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (151)7/22/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: denekin
   of 185
 
Jeff, I am new to investing ( I year veteran). Can you answer this?
Is this year more punishing to stocks that don't perform as they're "supposed" to than others. My impression is that market rabies is at work. Several stocks which I track have been punished for performing as well as the company said they would, but not as well as some analysts announced they might. thanks for any response.

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To: denekin who wrote (158)7/23/1998 1:08:00 AM
From: Jeff Mulder
   of 185
 
<< Is this year more punishing to stocks that don't perform as they're "supposed" to than others. >>

I don't have any objective or statistical way of answering this question. My only basis for answering is experience.

Selling on earnings news, even "good" news, has been going on for years. AVEI, BOSA, NRVH, and others all released outstanding earnings reports this week, and all sold off heavily on the news. I don't think this type of selling is any more prevalent this year than in past years. It's become a standard Wall Street self-fulfilling prophesy.

The "dumping" of stocks, like we've seen with AATT, is happening with increasing frequency, in my opinion. I think this correlates with the increasing popularity of momentum investing.

Another observation of mine is that the news causing panic dumping doesn't need to be nearly as severe as it did a few years ago.

- Jeff

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (159)7/23/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: James Perry
   of 185
 
The time is not normal. Investment monies flow into mutual funds,
which tend to be invested in blue chip stocks. But as money continues
to flow in, those stocks are priced to unsupportable levels. Small
cap stocks are still pretty much disregarded, and the next attention
grabber is the stocks with surging prices. It is always true that good performance is rewarded, and that poor performance is punished, but the momentum investor carries that to insane levels. We see internet stocks priced at levels that make the inflated prices of Holland tulips seem downright cheap. And here we have a stock whose revenue will decrease to an unknown extent. It grew nearly 50% last year, and it will not grow that much next year. Intel will change her order pattern. It remains to be seen whether she will pick up the orders of some of the "cheap" computer makers, but with good management and good product, that seems likely. It seems that at worst there is some uncertainty. To price that at 50% of the value of the company is downright ridiculous, but when the momentum boys dump their holdings, such is the absurd result. A fine time to buy. At worst, you might have to hold a year or two to make a bundle.

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To: James Perry who wrote (160)7/23/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Peter J. Santiago
   of 185
 
I have been watching this stock for only a couple of days. I am in a trading group and I must say the word is that the MM MONT has been really manipulating this stock. If anyone on this thread knows the company's phone number it would be well worth passing this information on.

I personally have no choice but to hold a few thousand shares at this point. I bought in at 14. I do believe that this stock will rebound but I feel it may take a month or two. IMHO (Rebound to like 18).

Any comments would be appreciated.

Regards,

Peter

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