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   Technology StocksAavid Thermal Technologies (AATT)


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To: DD™ who wrote (146)7/22/1998 10:18:00 AM
From: Jeff Mulder
   of 185
 
It isn't the Q2 earnings report driving the selling. It's this comment:

''We experienced increased revenues from our largest customer in the second quarter, but the most recent forecasts which we just received indicate that third quarter shipments will be lower, due to changing product mix and demand,'' Borelli stated.

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (147)7/22/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: wpckr
   of 185
 
No question that the forecast comments were negative, short term. But it seems a bit unusual to see the stock value cut in half over remarks like that.

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (147)7/22/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: DD™
   of 185
 
Exactly (EOM).

DD

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To: DD™ who wrote (149)7/22/1998 11:58:00 AM
From: W Shakespeare
   of 185
 
The problem of heat dissipation for computer manufacturers has not disappeared. The company will have to shift its sales efforts away from Intel and over to computer manufacturers who are producing the under $1,000 PCs that are taking a larger portion of the computer market. I believe this drop in price is completely overdone! Unless, of course, someone can show that AATT has lost its competitive edge in the heat dissipation market. A definite buying opportunity for the long-term investor.

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To: wpckr who wrote (148)7/22/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Jeff Mulder
   of 185
 
<< But it seems a bit unusual to see the stock value cut in half over remarks like that. >>

You're surprised? I'm not. It's SOP for tech stocks. ADIC made a similar announcement and its down 30% today. Or look at what happened to AFCI at the beginning of the month.

I owned a little Rainforest Cafe when the company announced same store sales had dropped a couple points, and the Street cut that one in half. Still hasn't recovered, despite continued growth in the 40% - 50% range.

- Jeff

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To: W Shakespeare who wrote (150)7/22/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Jeff Mulder
   of 185
 
Everyone remember this press release? It's only 7 weeks old:

Aavid Thermal Technologies Sees Performance On-track; Company Expects To Outpace Electronic Industry Performance

Business Wire - June 02, 1998 15:13

CONCORD, N.H.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 2, 1998--Aavid Thermal Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:AATT) management stated today that its business remains strong and on track with expectations. Ronald F. Borelli, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "The recent weakness in our stock, including the substantial decline on Monday June 1, 1998 has no direct correlation with the business conditions the Company is experiencing. The growing need for heat dissipation in a broad array of computer and communications components and systems is creating new opportunities and growing demand for our products."

Borelli continued, "In our most recent quarter, ended March 31 1998, our revenues grew 62% and our EPS increased 59%, both well in excess of the
electronic industry in general. We expect to significantly outpace the industry's performance again this quarter."

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (152)7/22/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: DD™
   of 185
 
Where did he fib? <gg>.

Seriously, I take with a grain of salt the cooments management makes to the price of their stock.

What are they going to say, insiders dumping because of weak prospects?

On second thought, they could have at least made a comment of weak demand going forward. <gg>.

DD

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (152)7/22/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare
   of 185
 
If you can believe what management is now saying, the cutback in orders from Intel hit them as a major surprise. The most recent quarter is in line with what management said it would be. We will have to wait and see what June's insider trading is like to assess management's credibility.

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To: W Shakespeare who wrote (154)7/22/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Mighty_Mezz
   of 185
 
Browsing the threads and noticed this has not yet been posted here.
DLJ and NB Montgomery both downgraded AATT today.
quicken.excite.com

This could be cause of selloff.

No position in AATT, just passing on some info. Hope it's of value.

Good luck and good trades.

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To: Mighty_Mezz who wrote (155)7/22/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: James Perry
   of 185
 
Of course. It is a sign of a broker's prowess that he downgrades his past recommendation at the first sign of bad news!! Moral? Step in and BUY! I doubled my position before noon today. May have overpaid by half a buck, but not long term.

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