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   Technology StocksAavid Thermal Technologies (AATT)

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (152)7/22/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare
   of 185
If you can believe what management is now saying, the cutback in orders from Intel hit them as a major surprise. The most recent quarter is in line with what management said it would be. We will have to wait and see what June's insider trading is like to assess management's credibility.

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To: W Shakespeare who wrote (154)7/22/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Mighty_Mezz
   of 185
Browsing the threads and noticed this has not yet been posted here.
DLJ and NB Montgomery both downgraded AATT today.

This could be cause of selloff.

No position in AATT, just passing on some info. Hope it's of value.

Good luck and good trades.

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To: Mighty_Mezz who wrote (155)7/22/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: James Perry
   of 185
Of course. It is a sign of a broker's prowess that he downgrades his past recommendation at the first sign of bad news!! Moral? Step in and BUY! I doubled my position before noon today. May have overpaid by half a buck, but not long term.

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To: James Perry who wrote (156)7/22/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: wpckr
   of 185
What's happening here seems to indicate that the market is really controlled by a bunch of knee-jerking maniacs. I for one have to believe that our aatt stock will recover to 20 over the next month. But after that it will take some really good news to move it up again. I'm stickin' around and may well add to my position at the open. Would like to see another statement from the pres..

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (151)7/22/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: denekin
   of 185
Jeff, I am new to investing ( I year veteran). Can you answer this?
Is this year more punishing to stocks that don't perform as they're "supposed" to than others. My impression is that market rabies is at work. Several stocks which I track have been punished for performing as well as the company said they would, but not as well as some analysts announced they might. thanks for any response.

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To: denekin who wrote (158)7/23/1998 1:08:00 AM
From: Jeff Mulder
   of 185
<< Is this year more punishing to stocks that don't perform as they're "supposed" to than others. >>

I don't have any objective or statistical way of answering this question. My only basis for answering is experience.

Selling on earnings news, even "good" news, has been going on for years. AVEI, BOSA, NRVH, and others all released outstanding earnings reports this week, and all sold off heavily on the news. I don't think this type of selling is any more prevalent this year than in past years. It's become a standard Wall Street self-fulfilling prophesy.

The "dumping" of stocks, like we've seen with AATT, is happening with increasing frequency, in my opinion. I think this correlates with the increasing popularity of momentum investing.

Another observation of mine is that the news causing panic dumping doesn't need to be nearly as severe as it did a few years ago.

- Jeff

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To: Jeff Mulder who wrote (159)7/23/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: James Perry
   of 185
The time is not normal. Investment monies flow into mutual funds,
which tend to be invested in blue chip stocks. But as money continues
to flow in, those stocks are priced to unsupportable levels. Small
cap stocks are still pretty much disregarded, and the next attention
grabber is the stocks with surging prices. It is always true that good performance is rewarded, and that poor performance is punished, but the momentum investor carries that to insane levels. We see internet stocks priced at levels that make the inflated prices of Holland tulips seem downright cheap. And here we have a stock whose revenue will decrease to an unknown extent. It grew nearly 50% last year, and it will not grow that much next year. Intel will change her order pattern. It remains to be seen whether she will pick up the orders of some of the "cheap" computer makers, but with good management and good product, that seems likely. It seems that at worst there is some uncertainty. To price that at 50% of the value of the company is downright ridiculous, but when the momentum boys dump their holdings, such is the absurd result. A fine time to buy. At worst, you might have to hold a year or two to make a bundle.

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To: James Perry who wrote (160)7/23/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Peter J. Santiago
   of 185
I have been watching this stock for only a couple of days. I am in a trading group and I must say the word is that the MM MONT has been really manipulating this stock. If anyone on this thread knows the company's phone number it would be well worth passing this information on.

I personally have no choice but to hold a few thousand shares at this point. I bought in at 14. I do believe that this stock will rebound but I feel it may take a month or two. IMHO (Rebound to like 18).

Any comments would be appreciated.



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To: Peter J. Santiago who wrote (161)7/23/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Arthur
   of 185

First, I never heard of AATT until yesterday, but I look for these
tech stock massacres to buy oversold stock. One used to be able to
get an immediate trading bounce by buying right before the market
close on the massacre day and then selling right away the next
morning, but that seems to be getting harder to do. Todays peak
over the previous close was only 5/16, whereas I used to be able
to get at least twice that routinely. So now I wait a while after
the massacre day to buy. Most of the time these stocks continue to
decline for at least another 10 days or so, but sometimes it is as
few as 5 or so. Look at the graphs of SMOD, BMC, HAKI, CYTC for
recent examples. The good news is these stocks almost invariably
rebound nicely (though there are the unfortunate exceptions) but I
think you are right it could easily be several weeks before we see
Wednesday's price levels again. This company looks pretty good
to me and I plan to buy in the next week or so.

Good luck,

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To: Peter J. Santiago who wrote (161)7/25/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: James Perry
   of 185
I think it is a good trade at this point, and an even better
long term holding. The need for heat sinks will increase, and
while changes at Intel might cause some shift in their buying
(as AATT has warned), the price drop was overdone and I certainly
anticipate that there will be other customers coming into the
buying market, with all the cheap PCs being sold. Also, I have no
question that the MM is playing games, although I do note that a
lot of momentum players dumped shares at the warning announcement.
Heavy trading, then. As noted earlier, I doubled my position then.

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