| To: The Phoenix who wrote (23987) | 3/28/1999 12:16:00 PM | | From: jach | | | |
ATM in the campus will still be used for certain applications and businesses; the ability to marry with GBit, having ACTUAL traffic control end-to-end, and at the same time providing value-add applications-aware networking will be key differentiators going forward. FORE is very aware of this and it's going in the right direction, in fact, imo, they've the products today. Why would Microsoft bets its large campus network on FORE, simple, FORE is the best when companies want tight control over their network.
FORE at this price is still a big bargain, unfortunatley naive and extremely un-intelligent half-brain out-of-lunch people such as the Zonkers do not see it. And, btw, it's still pretty early, the Zonker probably is throwing out that look like over-ripen-maggot-infested stuffs from over zonking. Sad. |
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| To: MMW who wrote (23989) | 3/28/1999 1:28:00 PM | | From: dreydoc | | | |
>>Let us don't be carried away with something can
not be proven until the quarterly report. From long term perspective,
CSCO is money making machine. I would be very happy if it keeps
growing with 20-40% increasing annual rate.<<
Any forecast has uncertainty, sure. I merely asked the Service Provider channel if they thought they could hit 30-35% this quarter and they said 41% firm. Must be in the pipe already, or maybe's it spring fever, who knows...not intending to validate, just sharing good indicator 'tsall. Sounded like marketshare to me, we'll see.
Long CSCO |
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| To: The Phoenix who wrote (23987) | 3/28/1999 2:18:00 PM | | From: Techplayer | | | |
Gary,
Thanks for your insight. I do agree that there is no question that FORE should put itself on the block to anyone that has the potential to help grow the company and knows how to make the internal technology into next gen product. I just wonder what price a company will pay for longer term dividends, slowing legacy products and likely a longer period before the purchase can possible be accretive to earnings. There is much more of a gamble here than even some of the start-ups available simply because of the difference in cost. I have not looked at the market cap of FORE. what price for the company makes sense to you and what kind of upside does this represent?
Thanks again.
Brian |
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| To: 16yearcycle who wrote (23981) | 3/28/1999 9:01:00 PM | | From: Uncle Frank | | | |
Eugene, I think Cisco uses a 13 week fiscal quarter rather than three calendar months. This results in ending dates that don't always coincide with month's end, and has given the appearance that they report just a few days after month's end. I checked into this last quarter, but I can't remember where I found the data.
You are one smart investor to have held csco for over 6 years.
Frank |
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| To: Uncle Frank who wrote (23995) | 3/28/1999 9:12:00 PM | | From: Curtis E. Bemis | | | |
Fiscal Year The Company's fiscal year is the 52 or 53 weeks ending on the last
Saturday in July. The fiscal years ended July 25, 1998, July 26, 1997, and July 28,
1996 all comprised 52-week years. Prior to fiscal year 1997, the Company's fiscal
year was the 52- or 53-week period ending on the last Sunday in July. Fiscal year
1999 will be a 53-week year.
from 10K |
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| To: Eric L who wrote (23970) | 3/28/1999 9:28:00 PM | | From: jach | | | |
<Superb "Execution" on jach's part wouldn't you say?
Definitely. IMO, the mkt can go down substantially if the Kosovo crisis escalates into hint of possible deployment of ground troops. From the looks of things happenning, it can.
Also, MMs may take profits off the table to lock in whatever gains they had ending Mar qtr, also to take some cover before April earnings come out. Compounding that with summer doldrums for tech stocks, won't be surprised to see the tech sector dips in the next few weeks. Probably won't happen this coming week, although it can go down quite a bit starting from mid Wednesday, but very likely a big dip can come starting after the Easter week. All imo. |
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| To: jach who wrote (23997) | 3/28/1999 9:39:00 PM | | From: Eric L | | | |
So jach,
Are you holding FORE? or are you selling FORE? or have you already taken profit on your shrewd move? or perhaps you recommend something more sophisticated?
- Eric - |
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| To: Uncle Frank who wrote (23995) | 3/28/1999 11:16:00 PM | | From: 16yearcycle | | | |
Very good. Thanks to both of you and Curtis. I did in fact think that they were reporting within 2-6 days of the end of each q because of the dates that Curtis gave: it was always the first few days of the month. This q appeared to be much later, but it was because the q ends later. I get it.
The date of the announcement is potentially much more important to me this q, so I needed to have absolutely correct info and if there had been an internal change I needed to know. Thanks. |
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| To: Eric L who wrote (23998) | 3/29/1999 1:16:00 AM | | From: jach | | | |
Networking market suffers growing pains
By Wylie Wong
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
March 24, 1999, 4:45 p.m. PT
The networking market continues to grow, but at a much slower pace than in past years, a new study shows.
Sales of networking equipment--led by Cisco Systems--grew 17.7 percent in 1998, from $26.8 billion to $31.5 billion, according
to analyst firm Cahners In-Stat Group. That's a far cry, however, from growth numbers in 1996, when the industry watched its
sales surge by 48 percent for the year.
Industry growth rates should continue to slow, according to the report. Cahners In-Stat analyst Mike Wolf predicts sales growth
of 15.5 percent to $36.4 billion in 1999 as companies, faced with the costs of the Year 2000 bug, delay equipment purchases.
Additionally, growth rates usually decline as a market matures, Wolf said.
"As a market gets bigger, you have smaller growth rates because you're growing from a bigger base," he said. "If it's a $36
million pie, it's harder to grow 50 percent. You'd have to grow almost $20 million."
========================
Based on this, CSCO is growing much slower than a few years ago, but its current PE of 100+ is much higher compared to the avearge of last two years, that was around 60. Simple calcualation would say that as CSCO growth rate is much slower compared to the last two years its PE should in fact be less than 60. So, if one gives CSCO a PE that corresponds to the growth rate of 17.7% its PE should be around 40 only. Based on current earnings, the stock price that realistically reflects this growth rate based PE is around 40$ only. Based on this calculation, CSCO is way way overpriced. all imo.
Not a good entry point considering what's happenning in Kosovo, Crude oil quotas, and potential negative earnings surprises in April. The potential of a large dip is possible in April. Again, all imo. |
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