| To: Uncle Frank who wrote (23995) | 3/28/1999 11:16:00 PM | | From: 16yearcycle | | | |
Very good. Thanks to both of you and Curtis. I did in fact think that they were reporting within 2-6 days of the end of each q because of the dates that Curtis gave: it was always the first few days of the month. This q appeared to be much later, but it was because the q ends later. I get it.
The date of the announcement is potentially much more important to me this q, so I needed to have absolutely correct info and if there had been an internal change I needed to know. Thanks. |
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| To: Eric L who wrote (23998) | 3/29/1999 1:16:00 AM | | From: jach | | | |
Networking market suffers growing pains
By Wylie Wong
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
March 24, 1999, 4:45 p.m. PT
The networking market continues to grow, but at a much slower pace than in past years, a new study shows.
Sales of networking equipment--led by Cisco Systems--grew 17.7 percent in 1998, from $26.8 billion to $31.5 billion, according
to analyst firm Cahners In-Stat Group. That's a far cry, however, from growth numbers in 1996, when the industry watched its
sales surge by 48 percent for the year.
Industry growth rates should continue to slow, according to the report. Cahners In-Stat analyst Mike Wolf predicts sales growth
of 15.5 percent to $36.4 billion in 1999 as companies, faced with the costs of the Year 2000 bug, delay equipment purchases.
Additionally, growth rates usually decline as a market matures, Wolf said.
"As a market gets bigger, you have smaller growth rates because you're growing from a bigger base," he said. "If it's a $36
million pie, it's harder to grow 50 percent. You'd have to grow almost $20 million."
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Based on this, CSCO is growing much slower than a few years ago, but its current PE of 100+ is much higher compared to the avearge of last two years, that was around 60. Simple calcualation would say that as CSCO growth rate is much slower compared to the last two years its PE should in fact be less than 60. So, if one gives CSCO a PE that corresponds to the growth rate of 17.7% its PE should be around 40 only. Based on current earnings, the stock price that realistically reflects this growth rate based PE is around 40$ only. Based on this calculation, CSCO is way way overpriced. all imo.
Not a good entry point considering what's happenning in Kosovo, Crude oil quotas, and potential negative earnings surprises in April. The potential of a large dip is possible in April. Again, all imo. |
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| To: jach who wrote (24000) | 3/29/1999 2:40:00 AM | | From: Eric | | | |
Sorry jach but Cisco is growing faster now than it was two years ago.
I think we should send you back to school so you can read their quarterly reports more accurately! |
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| To: Techplayer who wrote (23993) | 3/29/1999 5:48:00 AM | | From: Zoltan! | | | |
Dow Jones Newswires -- March 28, 1999
Australia's PowerTel To Buy A$100M Infrastructure From Cisco
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--PowerTel Ltd. (A.PWT), an Australian telecommunications concern, Monday said it will spend A$100 million on buying new generation internet protocol network infrastructure from Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) of the U.S.
The infrastructure, which incorporates ATM or Asynchronous Transfer Mode technology, will allow PowerTel to offer data, voice, and video services to both business and retail customers, the company said in a statement.
PowerTel, formerly Spectrum Network Systems Ltd., is 45%-owned by U.S.-based Williams Cos. (WMB) and 30%-owned by DownTown Utilities Pty. Ltd., which is a consortium of state government-owned electricity distribution companies EnergyAustralia in Sydney, and Energex in Brisbane, along with U.S.-based American Electric Power Co.'s (AEP) Melbourne-based unit, Citipower.
Internet protocol refers to the common language used by computers to run the internet infrastructure.
PowerTel will spend A$217 million on expanding its network in 1999 and plans to outlay a similar amount in 2000, chief executive officer, Gary Dupler, told Dow Jones Newswires.
Around 0345 GMT shares in PowerTel were 25%, or 32 Australian cents, higher at A$1.61 each.
wsj.com |
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| To: jach who wrote (23997) | 3/29/1999 10:03:00 AM | | From: RetiredNow | | | | |
It's interesting to me that I have now heard not only Jach, but several other people mention the 'summer duldrums' for tech stocks. Where do you get this? Last summer, all stocks, including tech stocks shot through the roof all the way until the end of July. Then in August they started coming down. So to me that means the summer months were pretty good. So if you get out before August, you're probably leaving money on the table. |
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| To: MMW who wrote (23978) | 3/29/1999 10:15:00 AM | | From: RetiredNow | | | | |
I don't think that will ever happen. Proximity: no where near. Technology: plenty of cheaper cos. to buy (like Qualcomm). Culture: exact opposite. Ericcson fails every test for a Cisco acquisition. |
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| To: jach who wrote (23991) | 3/29/1999 10:34:00 AM | | From: The Phoenix | | | |
Well, given that bandwidth is a non-issue in the campus - taffic control is mute. If you need more bandwidth you simply lay down more fiber ...less costly and easier to manager than complex traffic control and lets companies standarize on IP thus eliminating the need to hire ATM experts. ATM in the campus is dead.
Micrsoft buying FORE for the corporate ATM backbone has more to do with Berkekely being an NT based platform than FORE's products.
OG |
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| To: Techplayer who wrote (23994) | 3/29/1999 10:36:00 AM | | From: The Phoenix | | | |
Well, if a company is looking for a quick hit buy purchasing a company with products that are already incredibily successful with lots of future potential than perhaps FORE isn't the right company. However, if you're looking for a company that has some technology and expertise that might help provide an edge in building towards tomorrows converged networks, than I think Fore has something to offer.
OG |
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| To: The Phoenix who wrote (24006) | 3/29/1999 10:45:00 AM | | From: Techplayer | | | |
Gary,
I did not mean to imply that the potential suitor needed a quick hit, but rather that if Fore's business is in fact slowing, then the risk associated with an expensive purchase is higher because there is no defined revenue stream to bet on 2 years out. In the case of LU/ASND, bets are that ASND will be accretive to LU's earnings by .12 next year (I beliueve that it might be .06 post split).
Brian |
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| To: Techplayer who wrote (24007) | 3/29/1999 10:48:00 AM | | From: The Phoenix | | | |
Understood.....and agreed. At the same time if you're an alsoran in the market you either have to take a hunch or risk being left in the dust. The "old world" telephony companies have to make a move.... or their days are numbered. They will not be able to develop data communications technology in house to address the competitive landscape. By the time they do the war will be over and all that will be left will be scraps.
OG |
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