| To: Jay k. who wrote (2572) | 3/24/2001 10:53:17 PM | | From: MeDroogies | | | | Thanks, Jay...
But I do respond casually to alot of things that I consider inconsequential. If you find my writing style confusing, you should try it from my side. I often have no idea what point you are making.
As for complexities, it occurred to me that I could tell you what my focus in my Masters program was...but I don't need to. Suffice to say, one reason I may sound confused is that I do understand the complexities, and while discussing my own points, often try to address the strength of my belief by discussing why the opposing arguments carry little weight. It's a poor method of writing, one I know is bad, which is why I needed a great deal of help doing my thesis - purely from a writing standpoint. My first attempts wound up sounding like I was disproving the point I was making...but only because I am not a good writer, not because I argued it improperly.
You may consider my actions of buying and selling in a similar vein as yours. I assure you, while the timing may appear to point to a certain belief structure, and my current stance may appear to be similar to yours, it isn't.
I am prepared, at this moment, to rejoin the market should I get the information I am looking for...I won't disclose it, because I'm not prepared to have to defend anything anymore to anyone. Which is precisely the reason why I wouldn't disclose to begin with. When you disclose information, it raises as many questions as it answers...if it answers any at all...and I don't think it does. I did it because you seem to think this is a game and felt it was a necessary component of some proof you were trying to formulate. Clearly, from your response, you got something of the answer you hoped for....though I still don't know what it was.
I'm not concerned about the savings rate from the same perspective as others. It's a problem, but it's one that can be overcome without deflation. I suspect it will, and rather quickly. If it isn't, then there are few places to keep money except in your mattress...something I'm prepared for, but not inclined to do. My feeling is that the minute people begin doing the very things they shouldn't, it won't matter what anyone does because the gig is up.
I think your response was well intentioned. I'll reconsider the ignore button. But one should learn that drivel and rants are not equivalent measurements of style and taste. A rant is fine. People rant constantly and with good reason. Drivel is garbage. If you think that you were somehow putting our posts on some kind of equivalent footing, you weren't. It was an insult. Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it is worthless. It could be that it requires a little assistance to get to the crux of the matter.
Could be we have a difference in style, too. My professor once told me I am more rhetorical than dialectical. That is, I tend to try to form a standpoint, and argue through it as opposed to engaging in the give and take of debate. He told me this is the more powerful form of discussion, but that it has the drawback of seeming arrogance and condescending tone. Most people prefer dialectical reasoning because it is easier and more informal (so I've been told...I'm not a psychology or debate expert...so this may be wrong), which makes my style even more difficult for people to accept.
As for the future - it is what it is. I've never said it won't be a collapse. I've merely said I find that to be an extremist viewpoint, and one I don't think is at all likely.
As for the market, I've never said I'm bullish right now. I will buy select stocks if I see opportunity, and there are a few. But I know people are dying to get back in again. I see it every day. They are past the scared part. Right now I see a numbed resolution...usually the sign of a bottom. Can it kick over into fear again? Sure. But nobody likes that. Everyone would prefer to have a reason to buy. Given the right signals, they will again. I don't think the right signals will appear in the next 6 months, and I've said that before, too. |
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| To: MeDroogies who wrote (2592) | 3/24/2001 10:56:05 PM | | From: TobagoJack | | | | Hi MeDroogies,
We are simply the sum total of our upbringing and environment. While I do have more half brothers than I can count, but I am the only one of my mom, and younger by 17 years to my youngest half brother. I was not the king of the family, but the entire family. I am not golden, but certainly golden brown.
Chugs and peace, Jay
P.S. am I off ignore? |
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| To: MeDroogies who wrote (2595) | 3/24/2001 11:03:46 PM | | From: TobagoJack | | | | And we both hold AOL, and no, I won't sell, got to believe in something. SNE is my Japan AOL equivalent, and CHL is my China AOL equivalent, less the entertainment, as China is too busy for that entertainment stuff now. DVD (i.e. Shaft, a perfect copy from master, as opposed to camera in theatre, or fake disk with nothing on it, sells for US$ 1.2 and can be further bargained down).
Chugs, Jay |
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| To: MeDroogies who wrote (2592) | 3/24/2001 11:52:57 PM | | From: Stock Farmer | | | | If nothing else, you have Honor.
And that is not all you have.
Thank you for the response. No rough play from me to you. But no false agreement either.
First, compliments. You show yourself quintessentially human. Worthy to have met you on this field this day.
I select only a few points on which to comment. Maybe they stretch your mind, as yours stretched mine.
On extremes: Without extremes, life would be an endless succession of middles. Thus I've been extreme in moderation, and moderate in excess. Likely to continue in this vein. But I take your point, salt is good seasoning but a poor meal.
On house money: I view money to be of two kinds - John's money and someone elses'. Where John's money came from is irrelevant. What is relevant is that nobody gets their hands on John's money. Implication: every cent that John invests is John's money, and all gains or losses thereafter are John's money. So in this sense, concept of "house money" is foreign to me.
On anger: Best placed on those who shirk responsibility for their decisions, or abdicated their roles as deciders. But not those excellent at performing their scripted roles. As I said, I hold 350 shares of laidlaw as a tax deductable tuition receipt.
On LE: I certainly expect LE to be overweighted in ORCL at all times. It is therefore not the rebalancing itself that is the signal. It is the distribution of opportunities to rebalance not taken versus those taken that is the signal.
On wealth: The rich are different. Not because they are GIVEN opportunity, but because they EXPECT it. Plus point of view. See comment on house money for example. PM me offline if you would like further insight that I paid to obtain and does not belong in the public domain.
Finally, whether we agree or not on some of the intermediate points, your concerns are human. And that, I suggest is the most important thing of all.
Good night to you sir, and well met.
John. |
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| To: MeDroogies who wrote (2592) | 3/25/2001 10:47:42 AM | | From: JHP | | | | once it yours it is no longrer theirs,however
with your attitude "easy come ,easy go..."
>>All my others, I'm playing with house money (which Jay says doesn't exist). I say it does, because I'm playing with it now.<< |
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| To: TobagoJack who wrote (2566) | 3/25/2001 11:00:09 AM | | From: tradermike_1999 | | | |
now see what you mean in the totality ... core media spending revenue (presumably non-dotcom derived revenue is core) is up in your company, therefore the economy is still strong, therefore ORCL is not a sell, but a buy or hold, even though Larry sold, but each and every time, he did so to rebalance portfolio, whereas others (Jeff Bezos) may have sold for less noble reasons. You are very generous to the world and all its inhabitants.
All your favorite insiders certainly chose a very strategic moment to diversify; in fact they chose the same time as all the scoundrels in your construct. In normal language, it is termed "timing the market", as in "it is time to sell".
Oracle shareholders have filed a class action lawsuit again Ellison for outright lying about the company earlier this year when he said earnings were going to be great as he unloaded his shares to the sucker public. Then the news came out and it crashed after he parachuted out.
It will be interesting to see if a similar thing is going on over a Micron right now.
I went to a computer show in Greensboro, NC yesterday and bought a little laptop. I never have seen computers and drams priced so low. |
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| To: MeDroogies who wrote (2593) | 3/25/2001 12:32:27 PM | | From: Cogito Ergo Sum | | | | Hi MeDroogies,,
I only opined on this debate since earlier you seemed to be such a strong advocate of LT buy and hold vs some of the other more conservative approaches being taken on this board. Whatever works for you, works for you.
However to advocate LT Buy and Hold on one hand and then say 'But promotions are part of the game, and if you're not as good as the next guy, you'll lose out'
seems rather inconsistent to me, although of course you are exactly right about the cutthroat nature of investing in equities today. The LT Buy and holders supply the cash :0)
I guess you are not a real buy and hold guy then ? As an aside I do LT hold some things, but not technology at this point and not forever. Many average folks unfortunately take LT buy and hold at face value, especially in retirement accounts.
I'm not trying to get into a discussion about ethics here. On all the stocks I've flipped this year for a profit I've simply taken someone else's money because on those occasions I was better. On other occasions I've been bested. I do believe however, there is a difference between 'promoting' the game and 'playing' it.
' Business isn't necessarily honorable.' LOL.
Of course the game is rigged, but if you don't bet you can't win. Lazarus Long..
regards
Kastel |
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| To: TobagoJack who wrote (2530) | 3/25/2001 1:08:25 PM | | From: The Flying Crane | | | | Jay,
From a 3rd party's perspective who happened to come upon this thread, may I offer my view of why MeDroggies was so upset with this post of yours that he finally put you on ignore?
Before I begin, I like to say that I'm not arguing for either side but simply to vocal out what I observed. Of course, what I observed may be tainted by my own personal experience and background.
The way I see this, your debate between MeDroogies were simply a matter of two headstrong egos butting head with each other. And each with his own unique style of debating- one is sporting, and the other is very serious!
Now, there is absolutely nothing wrong with having a strong ego since this is, IMHO, a hallmark of an intellectual. Both of you argued "beautifully" in your own way. Unfortunately, both of you also carry a chip on the shoulder. IMHO, "Drivel" was not the word that finally pissed MeDroogies off, it was the whole manner of your response that pissed him off. Notice some of your counterpoints came with a touch of belittling:
"You got that backward and reversed.
You make it too easy for me to respond.
Not good enough
So? It does not follow that
No? What do you call this drivel …"
And to rub salt into the wound....
"Thanks for making it easy for me to respond so quickly."
Let me see if I can use an analogy to describe what I observed...
Once upon a time there was a proud Frenchman who challenged a proud Roman citizen to a duel. Both would pick their own preferred weapon. Naturally, the Frenchman would pick an epee (use for fencing) and the Roman citizen a standard issue of a Roman sword. Now, both were very skilled in their own martial skill. The Roman would hack with such strength that anyone who didn't know any better would succumb to such blow. The Frenchman, however, was quick and nimble in his movement and his handling of the epee. No matter how hard the Roman hacked his sword, the Frenchman always manage to side-step ahead. Their duel began with a friendly overtone until both parties began to get tired of the fighting that seemed to get nowhere.
However, in the final hour, the Frenchman began to tease the Roman citizen with his skill of handling the epee. He began to make the Roman citizen feeling like a fool. Now, the Roman citizen was a very proud gentleman and his bloodline was impeccable. And in one instance, the Frenchman even poked his epee on the Roman citizen's behind (divel?). And to end this frustrating duel, the Frenchman thanked the Roman citizen for making this duel an "easy affair" for him. No less, this remark dealt a final blow to the Roman citizen's pride (or in Roman's terminology- his dignitas).
Afterward, the Roman citizen, to his chagrin, refused to deal with the Frenchman ever again!
Now, I'm not saying the Roman citizen was without fault, after all, his arrogance was a little hard to swallow as well. Without playing side, I'm just trying to tell you, from my perspective, that "drivel" was not the culprit here.
But then, what do I know! Just a 2 cents from an ignorant visitor...
However, I sense that BOTH of you agree on one thing which is all that counted- that one must be careful in this current market condition.
Cheers! |
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| To: TobagoJack who wrote (2594) | 3/25/2001 1:35:23 PM | | From: jjetstream | | | | Jay, your post was most enlightening, however, I must comment that I gleaned the most enjoyment, and a sense of "brotherhood" from this little tidbit....
<parallel processing my wife’s chatter>
heh, heh...glad to know I'm not alone....<g> |
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| To: The Flying Crane who wrote (2602) | 3/25/2001 5:18:48 PM | | From: TobagoJack | | | | The Flying Crane, Thank you very much for the analysis and you are more correct than either MeDroogies or I.
My quoted sound bites got progressively worse as I was running into the crowd of meleeing folks, namely to this thread from the ORCL thread. You are right that I was adopting the "fun" approach. We were both serious about my points.
Tried to shake MeDroogies with my logic, but couldn't. Wanted to leave the decision on relative merits to the market, but he would not just wait. Therefore, and no excuses, the sound bites got progressively worse. You are right, and I apologized, with increasing levels of sincerity.
Chugs, Jay
P.S. Now we know one more lurker, or at least a chance one. |
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