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   Strategies & Market TrendsBonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures


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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (12358)2/8/2016 1:11:40 PM
From: Chip McVickar
   of 12390
 
obviously this entry was stopped out
looking to re-enter

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (12367)3/8/2016 7:06:52 PM
From: John Pitera
   of 12390
 
Hi Chip, Japan is a very perplexing situation all around.......

The 10 Year Japanese Government bond keeps lower and lower into deeper negative yield territory



The USD/JPY.... the Yen is continuing to appreciate against the USD and the EUR.



Here is the Japanese Yen Chart as the CME futures traders see it.......viewed as the inverse of the interbank market.



Here is the post I had from Feb 7th when the Yen was just appearing as if it wanted to break out.

Message 30448123

The YEN has major long term support at the 80 area... it has broken above it's 200 DMA, pulled back to it and now appears to be breaking out of the ascending triangle it's in...... additional notes on the chart.



and the post just preceding the currency post regarding The Japanese Negative rate situation.

Message 30448097

------------------------------------------

Global Bond Rally Near `Panic' Level With Japan Yield Below Zero

by Kevin Buckland Wes Goodman

February 8, 2016 — 7:09 PM CST

Updated on February 9, 2016 — 2:34 AM CST

bloomberg.com

Sovereign bonds surged, sending the Japanese benchmark 10-year yield below zero for the first time, as investors seeking the safest assets gorged on government debt.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

and the EUR is sitting in the middle of it's trading range much as the USD index is.... the EUR/USD will probably get some direction based on what Mario Draghi comes up with on Thursday.



John

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From: Chip McVickar3/16/2016 10:05:25 PM
1 Recommendation   of 12390
 
To any one who still follows this thread....

I too have a window open for trend reversal until the 28th

cycleupcycledown does too...

solar ecllpse March 9 .....lunar ecllpse March 23.......If you believe that lunar or solar cycles have any effect on the stock market, you might want to pay attention to this column.

March 23 ....2o16......full moon crash......
Message 30505543

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (12369)3/16/2016 10:34:17 PM
From: Woody
   of 12390
 
Hi Chip, thanks for posting your cycle work and the work of cycleupcycledown. I too believe the daily and weekly SPX charts are hitting the exact same time frame and it all boils down to the week of Friday the 25th. I also believe Monday the 28th. if not the 25th. could be a very important TP as you call them. It will be an interesting time for sure.

Woody

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (12369)3/21/2016 5:18:44 AM
From: John Pitera
   of 12390
 
The eclipse on March 23rd will be accompanied by the hard aspect of Jupiter Saturn square (a hard aspect)...with Venus opposite Jupiter and square saturn.. Those all strike me as risk off type energies and the good feelings are not to be had with this configuration.


I think we see some bearish price action occurring in several markets as we reach the 23rd and for the week or two after.







Jupiter square Saturn 2015, August 3- For the August 2015 square, Venus conjunct Jupiter is less than one degree orb. A lovely aspect on its own, Venus square Saturn points to delays and restrictions in the areas of love and money.

Jupiter square Saturn 2016, March 23 - In the March 2016 chart, Venus is opposite Jupiter and square Saturn. The hardships imposed on Venus are exacerbated with Venus conjunct Neptune. This adds deception and confusion into the mix.

Jupiter square Saturn 2016, May 26 – The May 2016 Jupiter Saturn square again includes the T-square with Neptune, leaving us in an uncertain place. This chart does not show a direct link from Venus to Jupiter and Saturn. Venus is, however, placed under great stress with the Sun conjunct Venus opposite Mars

In general, this series of Jupiter Saturn squares points to trouble brewing in love relationships which are already experiencing disharmony. Hopes and dreams for the future may differ to such an extent that compromise may be difficult to achieve. A difference in opinions or beliefs may be the cause of contention, or squabbles may arise over finances and shared responsibilities. Relationship disharmony is more likely to affect those people whose horoscopes are directly impacts by Jupiter square Saturn.

The same applies to finances in which case debt will become more difficult to manage. A restructuring of this debt will be needed and cutbacks will have to be made in the budget. Extravagance will need to be restricted by strict self-discipline. Hard work and perseverance during this time can lead to increased wealth and security. Overspending during this time would lead to increased financial hardship. Major investments would require a conservative approach and professional advice.

In the mundane world, peace will be in short supply. With other challenging moon phases and major aspect at this time, an increase in hostilities is a real possibility. The wars in hot spots such as Syria, Iraq and the Ukraine, should escalate yet become bogged down with no clear victor.

Problems in global finances will continue to impede growth, with a high probability of more countries entering recession. The T-square between Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune is an especially strong indicator of uncertainty and retarded growth.

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To: Woody who wrote (12370)3/21/2016 7:51:37 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 12390
 
Hi chip and woody,

The 25th is closed due to "Good Friday"

Chief's clx suggests the market is over bought to a level that was only reached twice last year.

I'm watching vix and put/ call like a hawk.

I might be spooked here, but I'm thinking if we don't see a turn before Thursday , we might wake up having it put on us by the Monday 28th.

It time to discuss being oversold:

stockcharts.com

rsi over 70 and Macd has a couple of days to roll.

It fits your windows very well.

Bob

Bob

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To: John Pitera who wrote (12371)3/21/2016 1:48:50 PM
From: Chip McVickar
1 Recommendation   of 12390
 
John - Here's more from Merriman - his last two weeks

The tension is like the build up of underground tectonic pressures - in our human environments they release through varieties of means - even exposure to weather... but today it seems most likely in the economic - political worlds and ideology conflicts.


Merriman March 14
Here we go. Between March 6 and March 26 there will be ten important geocosmic signatures unfolding. Some of these involve long-term planetary aspects, like the Jupiter/Pluto trine this week, March 16, and the Jupiter/Saturn square of March 23. Markets don’t always reverse right on the date of a long-term planetary signature, but these cosmic events are useful for timing longer-term cycles within nine months, and usually just three months or less. They are also useful for understanding the psychological dynamics in effect for world political and banking leaders, as well as changes of focus in world markets.

http://new.mmacycles.com/index.php?route=blog/category&category_id=1


Merriman March 21
However, all of this good news for world markets may be readying for yet another change, for this is the nature of the times when major planets are in mutable signs. Mutable signs pertain to “changes.” Nothing continues in a straight projectory, or trend, for long when the dominance is mutable signs (Gemini, Virgo, Sagittarius, and Pisces). Right now, the world is about to enter a wild time band when an incredible mutable T-square involving Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune, will enter its three-month peak (March 23-June 29).

From the Jupiter/Pluto trine of last week, March 16, we now head into the second (of three) Jupiter/Saturn square of March 23. Two days later, Saturn turns retrograde on March 25. That same day, Venus will form a T-square with both Jupiter and Saturn. This entire translation takes place in – guess what? –mutable signs. And yet, this is still only the beginning of this incredible spring line up of powerful geocosmic signatures that will last through June.

new.mmacycles.com

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To: robert b furman who wrote (12372)3/21/2016 2:03:30 PM
From: Chip McVickar
1 Recommendation   of 12390
 
One can either front run this window by "Butterflying" or wait and make changes after the event or non-event window closes

Be aware these astro tensions last through June we could see serous swings as the tensions find outlets and a even whether a tend reversal enters


Anything goes. Everything changes, back and forth, especially concerning decisions, agreements, and treaties. You think you have a deal? Think again. No deal. The deal is that there is no deal, even if we agree to a deal.


...you cannot trust anyone or anybody you see, hear, or read (well, maybe this column). Not to mention that we are also in between a solar and lunar eclipse (March 8 and 23), which started with the solar eclipse in Pisces, which of course is also a mutable sign. Everything is so mutable, unhinged, and not so firm right now that we should all be thinking of taking swimming or flying lessons - anything to get adjusted to being detached from the earth.

Today they've closed 2 upper gaps in the dow after a 2000 plus point move very few believed possible and most still don't quite understand or trust

Perhaps the crash will be up <smile> where have we heard that..

My work is looking at reaching for a major area of 17720 before exhaling <smile> but it doesn't have too

IMO the markets are still expanding higher... with no break in the daily or medium range upward trend
Today I'm watching 17447 to be taken out before I get worried.
Tomoorrow that will be a different number

Merriman
Message 30511388

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (12240)8/10/2016 8:31:25 PM
From: Chip McVickar
   of 12390
 
A long coffee purchase was taken on July 29, 2013 -- was sold July 29, 2016

This was a small trade - $COFFEE - was based on my time analysis extending out 3 years

The position produced a small gain

Message #12240 from Chip McVickar at 7/29/2013 11:11:55 AM

Long Coffee ± 120.00 as of the open this morning

Long term trade... weather related

Message 29028783

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To: Woody who wrote (12370)12/31/2016 8:46:02 PM
From: Chip McVickar
   of 12390
 
Wonderful and Very Happy New Year to You Woody

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