To: Return to Sender who wrote (89089) | 10/4/2022 7:02:44 PM | From: Return to Sender | | | Market Snapshot
briefing.com
Dow | 30269.81 | +776.89 | (2.63%) | Nasdaq | 11159.88 | +344.59 | (3.19%) | SP 500 | 3784.25 | +105.75 | (2.87%) | 10-yr Note | +1/32 | 3.62 |
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| NYSE | Adv 2662 | Dec 409 | Vol 1.0 bln | Nasdaq | Adv 3208 | Dec 1108 | Vol 4.9 bln |
Industry Watch Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care |
| Weak: -- |
Moving the Market -- Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates by 25 bps instead of the expected 50 bps fueling speculation that the Fed will take a softer approach to its own rate hikes
-- Carryover upside momentum from yesterday's rally
-- Strength in mega cap stocks
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Closing Summary 04-Oct-22 16:25 ET
Dow +825.43 at 30318.35, Nasdaq +360.97 at 11176.26, S&P +112.50 at 3791.00 [BRIEFING.COM] For the second straight day, the stock market had a broad rally. The major averages shot higher at the open and never really lost their footing, closing with sizable gains and near their best levels of the day. In the last two sessions alone, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, have risen 5.7%, 5.7%, and 5.5%, respectively.
The driving forces for today's continued upside momentum were offsides positioning and a hope that the Fed will soften its rate-hike approach.
The latter point stemmed from a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision to raise its cash rate by only 25 basis points (instead of the expected 50) to 2.60%, because officials recognize that "the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time," and want to take some time now to assess the impact of prior rate hikes on the outlook for inflation and economic growth.
The US Dollar Index fell sharply today on the growing speculation that the Fed will take a cue from the RBA and soften its approach going forward. The US Dollar Index was down 1.4% to 110.17 with EUR/USD +1.7% to 0.9987.
There was a short squeeze taking place in the stock market and maybe even a "flat squeeze" as sidelined investors felt the urge to put sidelined cash back to work after an ugly month of September that left the S&P 500 down 24.8% for the year at Friday's close.
Every S&P 500 sector logged gains on the day. Consumer staples (+1.5%) had the "slimmest" gain while energy (+4.3%) enjoyed the largest gain. Energy was boosted by rising oil prices, which responded to reports that OPEC+ is considering a 1.5 million barrels per day cut to production at Wednesday's meeting versus prior reports of 1 million barrels per day, according to The Wall Street Journal. WTI crude oil futures rose 3.4% to $86.31/bbl.
Twitter (TWTR 52.00, +9.46, +22.2%) shares surged today after Elon Musk filed an amended 13D notifying Twitter that he intends to proceed with closing the buyout transaction. Press reports circulated that the company intends to close the deal with Elon Musk at $54.20/share.
Treasury yields were lower in the morning trade, offering support to the stock market, before settling well off session lows. The 2-yr note yield, which hit 4.00% earlier, settled down three basis points to 4.08% and the 10-yr note yield, which hit 3.56%, settled down three basis points to 3.62%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index (Prior -3.7%)
- 08:15 ET: September ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 198K; Prior 132K)
- 08:30 ET: August Trade balance (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9B; Prior -$70.6B)
- 09:45 ET: September Final IHS Markit Services PMI (Prior 49.2)
- 10:00 ET: September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 56.0%; Prior 56.9%)
Reviewing today's economic data:
- Factory orders for manufactured goods were unchanged m/m in August (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following an unrevised 1.0% decline in July. Shipments of manufactured goods jumped 0.5% after decreasing 0.9% in July.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it marked the second straight decline in new order activity; however, the 1.4% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, suggests business spending is still on the rise.
- August JOLTS Job Openings came in at 10.053 million following the prior reading of 11.239 million
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -16.6% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -17.1% YTD S&P 500: -20.5% YTD Russell 2000: -20.9% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -28.6% YTD
Energy complex futures settle higher 04-Oct-22 15:30 ET
Dow +694.58 at 30187.50, Nasdaq +317.06 at 11132.35, S&P +98.40 at 3776.90 [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is moving sideways into the close.
Energy complex futures settled the session higher. WTI crude oil rose 3.4% to $86.31/bbl and natural gas futures rose 5.4% to $6.83/mmbtu.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index (Prior -3.7%)
- 08:15 ET: September ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 198K; Prior 132K)
- 08:30 ET: August Trade balance (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9B; Prior -$70.6B)
- 09:45 ET: September Final IHS Markit Services PMI (Prior 49.2)
- 10:00 ET: September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 56.0%; Prior 56.9%)
Semiconductor stocks outpace market 04-Oct-22 15:00 ET
Dow +776.89 at 30269.81, Nasdaq +344.59 at 11159.88, S&P +105.75 at 3784.25 [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages climbed towards session highs in the last half hour.
Semiconductor stocks are especially strong today with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 4.4%. Every component exhibits decent gains led Wolfspeed (WOLF 117.58, +9.50, +8.8%) with a gain of nearly 9.0%.
On a related note, the S&P 500 information technology sector (+3.2%) outpaces the broader market thanks in part to strength in semiconductor components.
Norwegian Cruise Line, other leisure names outperform on Tuesday 04-Oct-22 14:30 ET
Dow +700.94 at 30193.86, Nasdaq +322.21 at 11137.50, S&P +97.06 at 3775.56 [BRIEFING.COM] The benchmark S&P 500 (+2.64%) is situated in second place to this point on Tuesday.
S&P 500 constituents Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 13.26, +1.86, +16.32%), Caesars Entertainment (CZR 37.94, +3.79, +11.10%), and General Motors (GM 35.55, +2.68, +8.15%) dot the top of today's standings. Leisure name CZR as well as NCLH and beaten-down cruise peers gain on Tuesday in a buy-the-dip type of move, while GM benefits largely from broader market gains.
Meanwhile, Ohio-based healthcare facility REIT Welltower (WELL 64.08, -1.30, -1.99%) sits at the bottom of the index following cautious morning guidance.
Gold higher on declining dollar, yields 04-Oct-22 14:00 ET
Dow +702.34 at 30195.26, Nasdaq +320.01 at 11135.30, S&P +97.80 at 3776.30 [BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Tuesday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+2.96%) remains atop the major averages.
Gold futures settled $28.50 higher (+1.7%) to $1,730.50/oz, a nearly three-week high as the dollar dips and yields fall slightly.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -1.2% to $110.41.
Page One Last Updated: 04-Oct-22 09:02 ET | Archive The RBA leads the way It was a banner start to the month of October for the stock market -- and it was a start that was sorely needed. Entering yesterday, the S&P 500 had declined 12.9% from its intraday high on September 12 (i.e. the day before the August CPI report was released).
Coming into today, the S&P 500 is up 2.6% in October and is poised to add to that gain, as are the other major indices, when the opening bell rings.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 59 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 227 points and are trading 2.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 389 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been the trigger for this morning's bullish bias. The RBA surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected 25-basis point increase in its cash rate to 2.60%. The consensus view called for a 50-basis point rate increase.
Taking a softer approach at this meeting has stirred hope that the Fed may do the same.
It is important to note that the RBA's statement said further rate increases are likely to be required over the period ahead, yet the point that registered for market participants (as it relates to thinking about the Fed) was the acknowledgment that "the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time," and knowing that, the Board decided on a more modest rate increase at this meeting so it can take time to assess the impact of prior rate hikes on the outlook for inflation and economic growth.
We can see the market's hope about the Fed dialing back its aggressiveness in the U.S. Dollar Index and in the fed funds futures market. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.8% to 110.88, as the euro (EUR/USD +0.9% to 0.9916) is showing some strength against the greenback.
Meanwhile, the fed funds futures market shows expectations solidifying for a terminal fed funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and expectations for a terminal fed funds rate in the range of 4.50-4.75% weakening. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, a week ago there was a 67.1% probability of a fed funds rate in the range of 4.50-4.75% in March 2023. Today, the probability is 47.3%.
The 2-yr note yield has dropped to 4.05% from 4.20% at the start of the month and the 10-yr note yield has dropped to 3.59% from 3.79% at the start of the month.
The drop in market rates has been an underpinning factor for bargain-hunting efforts in the stock market. The specter of the September employment report on Friday, however, is still hanging out there as a potential spoiler. By the same token, it could also provide more interest rate relief if it is on the weaker side of things.
For now, though, the stock market is acting as if it wants to believe that the Fed will soon take a softer angle with its rate-hike approach. Paired with an understanding that sentiment readings show an extremely bearish mindset, that is helping to drive some renewed buying interest -- and likely some added short-covering activity -- that will keep the stock market in a recovery mode at today's open.
-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
Blackbaud solidly in the green today after Clearlake Capital discloses large ownership stake (BLKB)
Blackbaud (BLKB), a provider of cloud-based products for educational institutions and non-profit organizations, is launching higher after Clearlake Capital Group disclosed an 18.4% ownership stake in the company in an SEC filing. According to the filing, Clearlake initially established a position in BLKB solely for investment purposes. However, the firm's motivation has recently changed, and it's now in communication with BLKB's executives and board members regarding the evaluation of strategic alternatives. It is this detail that has lit a fire under the stock, sparking hopes that BLKB will gauge the interest level from possible suitors who may consider acquiring the company.
A review of strategic alternatives could also mean that Clearlake pushes BLKB to initiate other plans, such as cutting costs, divesting assets, restructuring, or buying back more stock. Whatever path is chosen, the end goal is to generate stronger returns for shareholders, which is music to investors' ears after the stock has crated by nearly 45% this year.
- Looking at BLKB's recent financial results, it's evident that the company isn't firing on all cylinders. While the company generated mid-teens revenue growth during the past two quarters, it greatly benefited from favorable yr/yr comparisons.
- Specifically, revenue declined by 2.0% in 1Q21, and increased by a paltry 3.3% in 2Q21. BLKB's mediocre performance is best illustrated by its average quarterly growth rate of just 6% over the past five years.
- Furthermore, BLKB cut its FY22 EPS and adjusted free cash flow guidance last quarter, partly due to soft bookings for its ESG-focused EVERFI business, which it acquired this past January for $750 mln. Foreign exchange headwinds and higher interest payments due to rising rates were also to blame.
- Interestingly, Clearlake's disclosure comes just a couple weeks after BLKB extended CEO Mike Gianoni's employment contract for three more years. Gianoni, who has been with the company since January 2014, has set a goal for BLKB to reach the Rule of 40 within the next three years. The Rule of 40 is a principle that a SaaS company's combined revenue growth rate and its profit margin should exceed 40%. In Q2, the company achieved 32% on the Rule of 40 on a constant currency basis, pacing above the midpoint of its full year guidance of roughly 30%.
- If Clearlake and BLKB agree that the most efficient and effective way to boost shareholder value is through selling the company, then its progress on the Rule of 40 could become a selling point. Additionally, the resiliency of its business model is an attractive attribute, especially in light of current macroeconomic conditions. During BLKB's Q2 earnings conference call, Gianoni highlighted this quality, noting that revenue still grew through the financial crisis (2008-2010), even though its recurring revenue was a much smaller percentage of total revenue compared to now. Today, approximately 95% of BLKB's revenue is recurring.
- With a reasonable 1-year forward P/E of 16x, BLKB could look like a good bargain to a larger software company. The company lists Salesforce (CRM), Oracle (ORCL), and Microsoft (MSFT), as companies it competes with in certain areas of its business.
Clearlake Capital has amassed a very significant stake in BLKB, providing it with plenty of influence. How that influence ultimately plays out remains to be seen, but investors seem to be betting that a for sale sign is in the company's near future.
Acuity Brands' mostly upbeat FY23 outlook is in the spotlight today (AYI)
Acuity Brands (AYI +6%) continued its string of double-digit earnings beats and revenue growth in Q4 (Aug) by expanding adjusted EPS 21% yr/yr to $3.95 while also growing revs 12% to $1.11 bln. Unlike last quarter, which saw shares tick lower despite similar headline results, investors are sending shares of the light supplier for commercial, industrial, and residential applications considerably higher today.
We view AYI's FY23 outlook as the primary driver behind today's price action. Last quarter, the company did not offer a timeline as to when its supply problems would begin to normalize nor any glimpse into what it was seeing beyond Q4. Investors saw this as slightly concerning, keeping the stock in check. As such, by guiding FY23 earnings and sales mostly above consensus, investors are breathing a heavy sigh of relief that supply chain issues are normalizing and demand is still robust.
- AYI targeted adjusted EPS of $13.00-14.50 and revs of $4.1-4.3 bln for FY23. These numbers may translate to just single-digit growth yr/yr at each midpoint, well below the double-digit growth experienced in FY22. However, given that AYI expects to continue facing component shortages and higher cost inventory, which will weigh on sales growth and pressure margins, its FY23 forecast is a positive development.
- As an example of component shortages, AYI is still working through a higher-than-normal backlog within its primary ABL segment (which comprised 95% of FY22 revs).
- AYI also anticipates sales growth to return to normal levels starting in 2023. This means that investors will need to adjust their expectations moving forward. Before the pandemic, AYI grew around mid-single-digits each year.
- Still, AYI's capital allocation strategy for 2023 is unchanged, meaning that the company remains focused on investing in growth and acquisitions while also maintaining its dividend and share buybacks.
- Although it is worth pointing out that AYI will likely not purchase close to the same amount of shares in FY23 as it did in FY22. The company bought back over $500 mln, or just under 10% of its outstanding shares, in FY22, and estimates repurchases to total around $125-150 mln in FY23.
- AYI also did not provide M&A details, but we would not be surprised to see a few purchases during FY23.
Bottom line, AYI reported another impressive quarter. However, unlike the looming uncertainty weighing on price action following Q3 (May) results, AYI's mostly upbeat FY23 guidance is helping ease concerns of lingering supply chain issues significantly eating into its top and bottom lines. We remain fans of AYI's buybacks. Even though its plan for FY23 is considerably below that in FY22, it still displays confidence by management in delivering consistent cash flows and maintaining a healthy balance sheet.
Poshmark is looking quite posh today as it agrees to be acquired by Naver (POSH)
Poshmark (POSH +13%) is looking posh to shareholders as they enjoy a nice pop in the stock on news that POSH has agreed to be acquired by Naver Corp., Korea's largest internet company. The all-cash deal price of $17.90 per share worth $1.2 bln represents a 15% premium over yesterday's close. Poshmark operates an e-commerce platform for users to buy and sell secondhand fashion and other goods.
- We see how the deal makes sense for Naver. It currently operates a search-driven e-commerce business, but the addition of Poshmark will allow it to operate its own C2C marketplace. It also allows Naver to gain exposure to the increasing consumer shift in fashion to online re-commerce, which is an $80 bln market today in the US alone.
- Although POSH has struggled somewhat over the past few quarters as sales growth has decelerated, Poshmark still boasts a huge community of 80+ mln registered users and it generated approximately $2 bln in GMV last year with a take rate of 20% and gross margin of 85%. Naver must also like that POSH's primary demographic (millennials, Gen Z) is younger and they are the largest shopping demographic for secondhand goods.
- It also sounds like Naver is not just buying a revenue stream, it seems more like a value-add opportunity. In addition to Naver's advertising and payments expertise, the company believes it can also improve Poshmark's user experience by incorporating its deep technology stack and AI-based capabilities. For example, its image recognition technology will allow Poshmark users to identify products by scanning objects on their phones without needing to know the exact name of the product.
So, is this a good deal for POSH shareholders? Our first thought was that the 15% premium seems pretty paltry. However, the stock has been moving up in recent weeks even as the overall market has been lower. It's possible that M&A speculation may have played a role. The buyout price is a 60% premium to where POSH was trading in early September.
Also, Poshmark's sales growth has been slowing so it may not be bad a time to cash out. The fashion C2C space has gotten very crowded and competitive. A bunch of companies now do this. Most are not trading publicly, but the couple that do are The RealReal (REAL +19%) and ThreadUp (TDUP +18%). Both are seeing a nice bump on the POSH news, but we view both as quite speculative with their sub-$200 mln market caps.
Rivian Automotive accelerates higher as EV maker remains on track to meet production target (RIVN)
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) shares are charging higher after the upstart electric vehicle (EV) maker reported Q3 production and delivery results that are alleviating lingering supply chain concerns. For the quarter, RIVN produced 7,363 vehicles, representing a sizable increase of nearly 3,000 vehicles from the last quarter. However, similar to Tesla (TSLA), the company's deliveries lagged its production rate by a considerable margin. Specifically, RIVN delivered 6,584 vehicles in Q3, missing analysts' expectations by several hundred units.
In TSLA's Q3 production and delivery report, the company blamed logistical and transportation challenges for the divergence between production (365,000) and deliveries (343,000). As the company's production volume increases, it's becoming more difficult for it to secure vehicle transportation at reasonable costs. For RIVN, the issue is more related to its decision to switch from truck delivery to rail delivery. While this shift will lower transit costs, delivery times will be extended, causing a larger discrepancy between production and deliveries.
Since the delivery miss is presumably due to a portion of EVs remaining in transit, rather than from order cancellations, the shortfall isn't overly concerning. Therefore, the focal point is centering on another key item from the report.
- The most important takeaway is that RIVN reaffirmed its annual production outlook, stating that it remains on track to meet the 25,000 annual production guidance it provided in its Q2 and Q1 earnings reports.
- To reach that production target, the company will need to produce about 10,700 vehicles in Q4, or about 3,300 more than it produced in Q3. That seems like an attainable number given that RIVN cranked out about 3,000 more EVs in Q3 compared to Q2.
- RIVN is also in the process of adding a second shift at its Normal, IL manufacturing plant, which should provide a significant production boost. The main caveat, of course, is whether the supply chain situation has improved enough to support the additional shift. Recall that in March, RIVN cut its annual production guidance to 25,000 from 40,000 due to supply chain disruptions.
With the stock down by about 65% year-to-date, it's safe to say that expectations have fallen substantially for RIVN. Accordingly, the company's reaffirmed annual production outlook is viewed as a major positive, easing fears that supply chain troubles will force it to scale back on its guidance once again.
Tesla's Q3 delivery miss sparks demand concerns amid a tougher business climate (TSLA)
It appears that Tesla's (TSLA) last ditch effort to close out Q3 with a surge of deliveries came up short as the electric vehicle (EV) maker missed analysts' estimates by a fairly wide margin. Recall that last week, Electrek reported that Elon Musk asked his employees to gear up for a strong push of deliveries over the weekend, lifting expectations that TSLA would post an impressive record setting number that exceeded forecasts. While deliveries of 343,000 vehicles did set a new quarterly record for TSLA, and increased by 42% yr/yr, logistical and transportation challenges prevented the total from meeting the bullish projections.
In its Delivery and Production Report, TSLA stated that it's becoming more difficult to secure vehicle transportation at reasonable costs as its production volumes grow. Indeed, production has soared, jumping by 53% yr/yr in Q3 to 365,000 vehicles, driven by the recent launches of its Berlin and Austin, Texas factories in March and April, respectively. Additionally, the company revamped its Shanghai plant this past summer, boosting its capacity by 30% to 22,000 vehicles per week.
This divergence in production and deliveries, which amounts to about 22,000 vehicles, is creating some angst regarding demand and competition. Typically, the difference between TSLA's production and deliveries is immaterial since it ships everything it can make. In fact, TSLA has been working through a sizable backlog of orders for quite some time. During the Q2 earnings conference call, CFO Zach Kirkhorn stated that the company has "a very long runway with very long lead times" as it pertains to backlog. Therefore, this gap between production and deliveries is catching investors off guard.
TSLA tried to sooth these concerns, stating that there was an increase in cars in transit at quarter end, and that these cars have been ordered. Once these cars are delivered, the difference between production and deliveries should shrink. However, based on the stock action, it's evident that some uneasiness remains, perhaps due to the following reasons.
- Last week, Reuters reported that TSLA is planning to keep production at its Shanghai plant below full capacity for the remainder of the year. There was no explanation given for the decision to keep production constrained, opening speculation that demand concerns could be creeping in as interest rates skyrocket higher.
- It has also been reported that lead times for Teslas have dropped significantly recently, indicating that the company has worked through most of its backlog.
- Macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying, especially in Europe, where soaring energy costs and a battered currency are weighing heavily. In FY21, revenue from geographies other than the U.S. and China accounted for nearly 30% of total revenue. Europe likely makes up the bulk of that figure.
The main takeaway is that cracks may be forming in a demand picture that was viewed as nearly bullet proof just a couple weeks earlier. We don't want to overreact to the report because TSLA still experienced a robust increase in deliveries, and its explanation that transportation challenges are increasing as production ramps up has merit. Macroeconomic and competitive risks are rising, though, and TSLA's shortfall on deliveries is putting those risks front and center today.
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (88983) | 10/5/2022 9:10:11 AM | From: Return to Sender | | | Rebound enthusiasm cools down
briefing.com
In two days, the major indices have risen between 5.5% and 6.9%. In a manner of speaking, the market's mood shifted seemingly from thinking that everything is bad (hence, the new low for the year on Friday) to everything is good (hence, the huge rally we have seen to start October).
Everything, of course, is not good, but when the stock market thinks to itself that the Fed might soon pivot to a less aggressive policy stance, then it sees potential for a much better outcome for stocks.
That is what the stock market has thought the past few sessions. That is not necessarily what the Fed is thinking. The divide here -- or the sobering reality really -- is presumably why the equity futures market is on the weaker side this morning.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 38 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 128 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 287 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value.
Market participants are being forced to contend with the possibility that the Fed won't acquiesce to the stock market's hopeful wishes. That is sapping some of the rebound momentum and feeding a reversal in other markets, too.
Specifically, the dollar is perking up again, evidenced by a 0.8% gain in the U.S. Dollar Index to 110.99. The 2-yr note yield is is up five basis points to 4.13% and the 10-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 3.70%.
There is some halting overlap in other places as well. The 10-yr UK gilt yield is up 12 basis points to 3.98% after Prime Minster Truss defended her plan to cut taxes. The British pound is down 1.3% against the dollar to 1.1323.
Oil prices are still simmering, meanwhile, as reports suggest OPEC+ could agree to cut production anywhere from 500,000 barrels per day to two million barrels per day at today's meeting. WTI crude futures are up 0.3% to $86.80 per barrel after settling September at $79.49 per barrel.
This isn't just a meeting with implications for oil prices. It is also a meeting with implications for inflation pressures, consumer spending pressures, and geopolitical pressures. Accordingly, it is laced with uncertainty and that uncertainty is helping to rein things in this morning.
The same goes for an ugly 14.2% decline in weekly mortgage applications and an ADP Employment Change Report for September that was still on the solid side of things. Granted the employment change headline was softer than expected at 208,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000), but after accounting for the upward revision to 185,000 from 132,000 for August, it was actually stronger than expected.
It wasn't the type of report that would convince the Fed to take a softer approach with its monetary policy -- not yet anyway. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not take a softer approach today. It raised its cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%, as expected, and debated whether it should raise rates by 75 basis points at today's meeting.
In other economic news, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $67.4 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9 billion) from an upwardly revised -$70.5 billion (from -$70.6 billion) in July.
The key takeaway from the report is that it does point to some softening in global economic activity as both imports and exports were less than they were in July.
There wasn't a big response to this data point. A question on everyone's mind is, how will the stock market respond to the early weakness? Will it step up and buy the weakness or will it succumb to a recognition that it has gotten a little too silly with its two-day rally effort in a world where hope and reality have yet to collide?
-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com |
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89093) | 10/5/2022 5:14:17 PM | From: Return to Sender | | | BPNDX Rose 6 to 43 PnF Buy Signals - [ABNB ADSK ILMN INTU MRVL SPLK added]
Mon | Tues | Wed | ADP | ADP | ABNB | AMAT | AMAT | ADP | BIIB | ASML | ADSK | CPRT | BIIB | AMAT | DDOG | BKNG | ASML | FAST | CDNS | BIIB | GILD | CHTR | BKNG | KDP | CPRT | CDNS | KLAC | CRWD | CHTR | MELI | CTAS | CPRT | ORLY | DDOG | CRWD | REGN | FAST | CTAS | SIRI | GILD | DDOG | TMUS | IDXX | FAST | VRSN | ISRG | GILD | VRTX | KDP | IDXX | WDAY | KLAC | ILMN |
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89096) | 10/5/2022 5:23:32 PM | From: Return to Sender | | | Market Snapshot
Dow | 30352.75 | +34.40 | (0.11%) | Nasdaq | 11159.91 | -16.35 | (-0.15%) | SP 500 | 3793.44 | +2.44 | (0.06%) | 10-yr Note | -31/32 | 3.76 |
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| NYSE | Adv 940 | Dec 2132 | Vol 929 mln | Nasdaq | Adv 1576 | Dec 2778 | Vol 4.0 bln |
Industry Watch Strong: Energy, Information Technology, Health Care |
| Weak: Utilities, Real Estate, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary |
Moving the Market -- OPEC+ announcing production cut, sending oil prices surging
-- Selling pressured eased somewhat in Treasury market
-- Resilience to early selling efforts acting as its own catalyst; leadership from mega cap and semiconductor stocks boosting index performance
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Closing Summary 05-Oct-22 16:30 ET
Dow -42.45 at 30275.90, Nasdaq -27.77 at 11148.49, S&P -7.65 at 3783.35 [BRIEFING.COM] Today's trade started on the defensive, bringing into question the durability of the October rally. The stock market waged a comeback effort that matched up neatly with a lack of follow through selling in the Treasury market after the 2-yr note and 10-yr note tested Friday's settlement levels. The market's ability to turnaround from early lows became its own catalyst with influential upside leadership from mega cap and semiconductor stocks.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite ultimately closed just a whisker below the unchanged mark after recovering from losses of 1.8%, 1.4%, and 2.4%, respectively at today's lows. The S&P 500 tested, and found resistance at, the 3,800 level today after setting a new low for 2022 (3586.47) on Friday.
Early action in the stock and Treasury markets reflected participants questioning the Fed rate hike narrative after buying into the idea of a softer approach coming soon. Starting around midmorning, stocks pared earlier losses coinciding with an abatement of selling pressure in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield tested the 4.20% level earlier and settled the session up five basis points to 4.13%. The 10-yr note yield tested the 3.80% level earlier and settled the session up 14 basis points to 3.76%.
Mega cap stocks proved to be an important upside driver today. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed up 0.01% versus a 0.2% loss in the S&P 500 and a 0.4% loss in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP).
Another bright spot for the market was semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed with a 0.9% gain. TSMC (TSM 74.48, +1.67, +2.3%) was a winning standout for the group after Morgan Stanley named the stock as a top pick.
Most of the S&P 500 sectors closed with a loss while energy (+2.1%) led the outperformers. Utilities (-2.3%) and real estate (-1.9%) brought up the rear.
Energy was boosted by WTI crude oil futures rising 1.5% to $87.64/bbl after OPEC+ agreed to a 2 million barrel per day production cut starting in November.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants will receive the weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 203,000; prior 193,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.347 mln) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The weekly natural gas inventories (prior +103 bcf) will be out at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Reviewing today's economic data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index showed a 14.2% decline compared to last week's 3.7% decline
- September ADP Employment Change totaled 208,000 (Briefing.com consensus 198,000) after the prior revised total of 185,000 (from 132,000)
- U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $67.4 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9 billion) from an upwardly revised -$70.5 billion (from -$70.6 billion) in July
- The key takeaway from the report is that it does point to some softening in global economic activity as both imports and exports were less than they were in July.
- September IHS Markit Services PMI final reading came in at 49.3 following the prior 49.2 reading.
- September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 56.7% (Briefing.com consensus 56.0%) from 56.9% in August
- The key takeaway from the report is that business activity for the non-manufacturing sector held pretty steady in September and was stronger than expected. While a slightly lower reading versus August connotes some slowing, the slowdown for the largest sector of the economy isn't significant enough to fuel a belief that the Fed is about to pivot soon with its monetary policy.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -16.7% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -17.5% YTD S&P 500: -20.6% YTD Russell 2000: -21.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -28.7% YTD
Market comfortably in the green 05-Oct-22 15:30 ET
Dow +99.60 at 30417.95, Nasdaq +12.89 at 11189.15, S&P +9.62 at 3800.62 [BRIEFING.COM] The market made a notable comeback from morning lows. The three main indices are comfortably in positive territory heading into the close.
Many stocks pared earlier losses coinciding with an abatement of selling pressure in the Treasury market. The 2-yr and 10-yr note tested Friday's settlement levels and found renewed buying interest there. The 2-yr note yield tested 4.20% earlier but settled at 4.13% and the 10-yr note yield tested 3.80% earlier but settled at 3.76%.
Energy complex futures settled the session higher. WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% to $87.64/bbl and natural gas futures rose 1.5% to $6.93/mmbtu.
Dow and S&P 500 flirt with positive territory 05-Oct-22 15:00 ET
Dow +34.40 at 30352.75, Nasdaq -16.35 at 11159.91, S&P +2.44 at 3793.44 [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages inched back towards session highs in the last half hour. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 flirt with positive territory.
The S&P 500 health care (+0.5%) and information technology (+0.4%) sectors joined energy (+2.3%) in positive territory.
Small and mid cap stocks are lagging their larger peers. The Russell 2000 (-0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.2%%) show the steepest losses for the major ndices.
Schlumberger, oil names outperform in S&P 500 05-Oct-22 14:25 ET
Dow -19.04 at 30299.31, Nasdaq -58.47 at 11117.79, S&P -7.22 at 3783.78 [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.19%) is probing session highs in recent trading, still firmly in second place among the major averages.
S&P 500 constituents Enphase Energy (ENPH 254.77, -33.48, -11.61%), Carnival (CCL 7.27, -0.49, -6.31%), and General Motors (GM 34.49, -1.31, -3.66%) dot the bottom of the index. Solar stocks fall hard on Wednesday, though no specific catalyst has yet appeared, while rallies in names like CCL and GM cooled off at midweek.
Meanwhile, Texas-based oil&gas name Schlumberger (SLB 41.39, +2.27, +5.80%) is today's top performer amid gains in crude oil futures.
Gold lower, dollar and yields higher in familiar story 05-Oct-22 14:00 ET
Dow -73.36 at 30244.99, Nasdaq -69.53 at 11106.73, S&P -13.99 at 3777.01 [BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Wednesday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.62%) sits at the bottom of the standings.
Gold futures settled $9.70 lower (-0.6%) to $1,720.80/oz, pressured by a familiar foe -- rising yields and a stronger greenback.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +1.1% to $111.30.
Lamb Weston's gains are no small potatoes as price increases drive strong earnings growth (LW)
Potato producer Lamb Weston (LW) has not been sheepish about acknowledging the challenging macro environment that's in front of it, but the company continues to serve up solid results despite the inflationary and supply chain related headwinds.
The company, which provides fries to McDonald's (MCD), and to many other major restaurant chains and retailers, easily surpassed 1Q23 earnings expectations as EPS surged by 315% yr/yr to $0.75. Bolstered by its strong performance, LW said that it's now tracking towards the high end of its FY23 guidance for EPS of $2.45-$2.85, and revenue of $4.70-$4.80 bln.
At the core of LW's earnings beat and bullish outlook is the company's effective pricing strategy. Over the past fifteen months, LW has increased product pricing multiple times in its Foodservice and Retail segments to counter rising input and transportation costs. Additionally, in the Global Segment (large quick-serve and full-service restaurant chains), LW benefited from price escalators that are included in multi-year contracts, as well as from some price adjustments made outside of those contracts.
Overall, price/mix increased by 19%, fueling a 900 bps surge in gross margin to over 24%. While LW capitalized on previous price hikes in Q1, the company also implemented new pricing actions during the quarter. Consequently, the company expects the pricing tailwinds to gradually build throughout 1H23.
Outside of the positive developments regarding pricing, the news is much more mixed.
- Similar to other packaged food companies, like General Mills (GIS) and Conagra (CAG) -- which reports earnings before the open tomorrow morning -- LW continues to experience declining volumes. Following a 1% drop last quarter, volume declined by 5% in Q1, due to softer casual dining and full-service restaurant dining in the U.S. Persistent supply chain disruptions compounded the issue.
- During the earnings conference call, LW commented that it's seeing a trade-down effect take place in the restaurant industry as a result of high inflation. Specifically, quick-serve restaurants, like MCD, are benefiting at the expense of pricier casual dining and full-service restaurants.
- Meanwhile, in the Retail segment, the company is unable to fully meet demand because its production is constrained. Supply chain issues, including commodity and labor shortages, are limiting its volume.
- LW doesn't anticipate that the macro environment will improve much in 2023, causing demand trends to remain uneven and volatile. However, the company noted that it saw similar restaurant traffic trends during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and that its business remained resilient during that turbulent time. According to LW, consumers are currently ordering fries at restaurants at a rate above pre-pandemic levels, illustrating this resiliency in demand.
Buoyed by its impressive earnings growth, LW has exhibited remarkable relative strength this year, gaining 30% compared to a loss of 21% for the S&P 500. With additional pricing actions underway, the company is poised to deliver solid bottom-line growth in the quarters ahead, which may translate into further outperformance for the stock.
SMART Global is smarting as softness in Brazil and weakness in LED unit tarnish results (SGH)
SMART Global (SGH), a semiconductor provider that's transforming itself into a more diversified technology company, reported mixed 4Q22 results that included a 6.4% yr/yr drop in revenue. This was the company's first quarterly revenue decline since the pandemic-affected quarter of 2Q20. Based on SGH's downside EPS and revenue guidance (at the midpoint) for 1Q23, it doesn't appear that the company is expecting a major turnaround soon.
SGH is primarily known as a semiconductor company with significant exposure to Brazil. In fact, SGH is Brazil's largest in-country manufacturer of memory products, with the country representing 30% of the company's total sales in FY21. In recent years, though, SGH has reshaped its business through acquisitions in order to diversify its product and geographic mix. Two of the most transformative acquisitions include SGH's addition of Penguin Computing in 2018, and its purchase of Cree's LED business in 2021. While these acquisitions have lessened SGH's exposure to Brazil, which accounted for 44% of revenue in FY19, the overall performance of the new businesses has been mixed.
- The LED Solutions segment in particular continues to weigh SGH down. In Q4, revenue plunged by 32% to $83.1 mln as COVID-related restrictions in China compounded preexisting supply chain constraints. Making matters worse, demand is also softening in the U.S. and Europe. Consequently, SGH expects LED revenue to decrease sequentially in Q1.
- In the core Memory Solutions segment (~48% of Q4 revenue), the story isn't much better. During last quarter's earnings conference call, CEO Mark Adams warned that consumer demand for smartphones and PCs in Brazil was weakening, and that the weakness would persist into Q4. That prediction came to fruition as revenue for the segment fell by 15% yr/yr to $209.8 mln.
- There were some pockets of strength, particularly for specialty memory and flash memory products from enterprise customers in the networking, telecom, and storage end markets.
- By far, the standout was SGH's Intelligent Platform Solutions (IPS) segment, which consists of Penguin Computing and Penguin Edge. Revenue jumped by 48% to $144.7 mln, fueled by new project rollouts and strong growth of 59% for services. IPS specializes in providing high-performance computing (HPC), artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) technologies to hyper-scale, financial, and government customers.
- Once these systems are implemented, SGH provides high-margin services, including system management, DevOps, and HPC/AI optimization. These service agreements with Penguin are typically longer-term and provide recurring revenue streams.
- SGH further bolstered its IPS segment with its $225 mln acquisition of Stratus in late June. Stratus, which develops Edge and cloud offerings for large scale enterprises in the data center, is expected to add more than $150 mln in annual revenue, while improving SGH's gross margin profile and adding to non-GAAP EPS.
Softening consumer spending in Brazil continues to weigh on SGH's memory business. It's strategy to lessen its exposure to Brazil should be working in its favor, but the avenue it took to diversify its business is looking questionable. Specifically, SGH's decision to buy the struggling LED unit from Cree is coming back to haunt the company. Unless business conditions improve in Brazil and for the LED business, the strength in the IPS segment will continue to get lost in the shuffle.
Helen of Troy's second cut to its FY23 outlook spurs a sell-the-news reaction (HELE)
By trimming its FY23 guidance for the second-straight quarter, Helen of Troy (HELE -1%) showed its Achilles heel, spurring a sell-off despite the houseware and beauty product supplier posting top and bottom line upside in Q2 (Aug). The problem facing HELE was the same that led to a guidance cut last quarter: softening consumer demand.
Rising inflation and interest rates dampened consumer sentiment in Q2, adversely affecting HELE's premium segments. Meanwhile, major retail partners continued adjusting their inventories. HELE is not seeing this issue fade away soon, forcing it to slash its FY23 outlook again. The company now expects FY23 EPS of $9.00-9.40 and revs of $2.00-2.05 bln, well below consensus and HELE's initial earnings and sales projections of $12.73-13.03 and $2.38-2.42 bln, respectively.
HELE also announced an official restructuring plan, dubbed Project Pegasus, which it estimates will produce annualized savings of $75-85 mln. Project Pegasus is an extension of HELE's global efficiency initiatives it announced last quarter, which included further enhancements to its distribution network, as well as utilizing automation and employing IT upgrades to increase labor efficiency. HELE expects its efforts to result in a stronger platform for operating margin expansion. However, with adjusted operating margins contracting 320 bps yr/yr in Q2 and HELE expecting a slightly worse decline in FY23 than its forecast last quarter, its restructuring plan may have come later than it should have. Still, we like seeing HELE take the necessary steps to return to margin expansion, which is no small feat in the current inflationary-plagued environment.
- This inflationary environment continued to cause headaches for HELE in Q2. Outside of a few good numbers, such as adjusted EPS sliding by less than analysts expected and revs still growing 9.7% yr/yr to $521.4 mln, many other results looked rather dim.
- Beauty sales falling 15.4% yr/yr to $100.3 mln was a bit of a surprise, especially given the strength of the beauty category lately, illustrated by excellent results from Sephora (LVMH), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Coty (COTY). HELE's weak Beauty sales are likely explained by the fact that more discretionary beauty appliances comprise a greater percentage of its Beauty revenue.
- HELE's other segments, Home & Outdoor and Health & Wellness, both saw positive sales growth in Q2, helping fuel the company's overall revenue expansion. However, these bright spots are tempered by operating margins falling in both segments.
The main takeaway is that HELE continues to be a victim of an ongoing slowdown in discretionary spending. Nevertheless, HELE's brands remain strong, and its acquisitions like Osprey, which is on track to achieve the company's sales forecast of $180-185 for FY23, and Curlsmith give it an even stronger foundation. Like we heard from competitor Hamilton Beach Brands (HBB), certain trends, such as eating-at-home and heightened focus on home upgrades, should provide long-lasting tailwinds. HELE is highlighting the benefits these tailwinds are already bringing, as some of its brands' sell-through remains well ahead of pre-pandemic levels.
Schnitzer Steel heads lower on weak guidance; hurt by a sharp decline in recycled metal prices
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN -7%) is heading lower today after providing some pretty disappointing guidance for Q4 (Aug). The company expects adjusted EPS of just $0.42-0.47. There is limited analyst coverage on SCHN, so we do not put a lot stock in the consensus. However, this guidance came in well below analyst expectations so we thought it was pretty notable.
- Ever since Nucor's (NUE) sharp downside guidance last month, we have been bracing for some weak guidance from other steelmakers. In a bit of a surprise, Steel Dynamics (STLD) guided Q3 EPS above consensus and the mid-point of US Steel's (X) Q3 EPS guidance was slightly above consensus. And now SCHN came in well below.
- In fairness, Schnitzer is a bit different than most other steel producers. For one thing, it is based in Portland, OR while most steelmakers are in the Midwest, near the automotive manufacturers. The other thing is that SCHN is more of a metals recycler than a steel producer although it does make some steel. It primarily buys scrap from auto salvage yards, industrial manufacturers, and metals brokers. It then processes the scrap and sells it to other steelmakers so they can make steel or SCHN uses it in its own steelmaking operations.
- As a scrap recycler, the accounting is a bit different than other steelmakers. Most notably, SCHN was hurt by a sharp decline in selling prices for recycled metals in AugQ, which is expected to lead to both a compression in metal spreads and an adverse impact from average inventory accounting. But lower scrap prices are good for steelmakers as it is a key input, especially for mini-mills like NUE and STLD.
Overall, this was some rough guidance from SCHN, but we think investors are not overly surprised given that scrap prices have been declining. Also, SCHN's stock price has been weak lately. That seems to be why the stock is not down more. And interestingly, SCHN's struggles are actually somewhat good news for the other steel producers because prices on a key input remain depressed. Finally, to SCHN's credit, it has been pretty active with share buybacks, including repurchasing 500K shares in Q4, which brings total FY22 repurchases to 3.5% of shares outstanding. So management does see some value down here.
Blackbaud solidly in the green today after Clearlake Capital discloses large ownership stake (BLKB)
Blackbaud (BLKB), a provider of cloud-based products for educational institutions and non-profit organizations, is launching higher after Clearlake Capital Group disclosed an 18.4% ownership stake in the company in an SEC filing. According to the filing, Clearlake initially established a position in BLKB solely for investment purposes. However, the firm's motivation has recently changed, and it's now in communication with BLKB's executives and board members regarding the evaluation of strategic alternatives. It is this detail that has lit a fire under the stock, sparking hopes that BLKB will gauge the interest level from possible suitors who may consider acquiring the company.
A review of strategic alternatives could also mean that Clearlake pushes BLKB to initiate other plans, such as cutting costs, divesting assets, restructuring, or buying back more stock. Whatever path is chosen, the end goal is to generate stronger returns for shareholders, which is music to investors' ears after the stock has crated by nearly 45% this year.
- Looking at BLKB's recent financial results, it's evident that the company isn't firing on all cylinders. While the company generated mid-teens revenue growth during the past two quarters, it greatly benefited from favorable yr/yr comparisons.
- Specifically, revenue declined by 2.0% in 1Q21, and increased by a paltry 3.3% in 2Q21. BLKB's mediocre performance is best illustrated by its average quarterly growth rate of just 6% over the past five years.
- Furthermore, BLKB cut its FY22 EPS and adjusted free cash flow guidance last quarter, partly due to soft bookings for its ESG-focused EVERFI business, which it acquired this past January for $750 mln. Foreign exchange headwinds and higher interest payments due to rising rates were also to blame.
- Interestingly, Clearlake's disclosure comes just a couple weeks after BLKB extended CEO Mike Gianoni's employment contract for three more years. Gianoni, who has been with the company since January 2014, has set a goal for BLKB to reach the Rule of 40 within the next three years. The Rule of 40 is a principle that a SaaS company's combined revenue growth rate and its profit margin should exceed 40%. In Q2, the company achieved 32% on the Rule of 40 on a constant currency basis, pacing above the midpoint of its full year guidance of roughly 30%.
- If Clearlake and BLKB agree that the most efficient and effective way to boost shareholder value is through selling the company, then its progress on the Rule of 40 could become a selling point. Additionally, the resiliency of its business model is an attractive attribute, especially in light of current macroeconomic conditions. During BLKB's Q2 earnings conference call, Gianoni highlighted this quality, noting that revenue still grew through the financial crisis (2008-2010), even though its recurring revenue was a much smaller percentage of total revenue compared to now. Today, approximately 95% of BLKB's revenue is recurring.
- With a reasonable 1-year forward P/E of 16x, BLKB could look like a good bargain to a larger software company. The company lists Salesforce (CRM), Oracle (ORCL), and Microsoft (MSFT), as companies it competes with in certain areas of its business.
Clearlake Capital has amassed a very significant stake in BLKB, providing it with plenty of influence. How that influence ultimately plays out remains to be seen, but investors seem to be betting that a for sale sign is in the company's near future.
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89097) | 10/6/2022 3:10:22 PM | From: Robert O | | | re: That's 2 days in a row of 80% Up Volume on the NYSE. Is this the end of our bear market?
It feels like that might have been it (even if a near retest but not below recent bottom occurs). But my question is when you have any down time, understanding this is not an exact science, do you feel 2 days in a row of 80% Up Volume on the NYSE is the same weight as capitulation and big 90% up day on high volume that you look for to blow the horn?
Or is this signal only say 70% of the signal we all prefer- monster capitulation day then 90%+ reversal day. This cycle I pledged mentally to put cash to work on the big signal and let it run no matter the various scares/headfakes, etc. Often in past once cash is back to work will sell with decent sized % gains off bottom but find it was far too soon as so many participants lag in jumping on the FOMO angst that occurs bit by bit.
For now, I've already started legging in over last 2 days just in case as had so much in cash. I’m just trying to get a feel for your sense of probability here that this was it ... RO |
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89099) | 10/6/2022 6:23:33 PM | From: Return to Sender | | | BPNDX Rose 6 to 49 PnF Buy Signals - [ALGN AMD COST DXCM GOOGL LULU added]
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