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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (89021)10/3/2022 11:10:03 AM
From: Sam
1 Recommendation   of 92533
 
I don't sense much fear out there, except amongst the professionals.

No fear? IMO, there is plenty of fear and distress out there. One indicator:


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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (89072)10/3/2022 11:14:34 AM
From: Sam
1 Recommendation   of 92533
 
The latest from DRAMeXchange--



Supply-side Inventory Proves Difficult to Dump as Demand Weakens Rapidly, Memory Manufacturers Initiate Rare Production Reduction, Says TrendForce
Published Oct.03 2022,16:27 PM (GMT+8)

According to a TrendForce investigations, memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics. Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers. In response to the aforementioned situation, Micron announced last week that it would cut production of DRAM and NAND Flash, becoming the first major memory manufacturer to officially reduce its capacity utilization plan. In terms of NAND Flash, the market situation is more severe than that of DRAM. As the average contract price of mainstream capacity wafers has fallen to their cash cost and is approaching the periphery of selling at a loss for various manufacturers, Kioxia also announced that it will reduce NAND Flash capacity utilization by 30% from October on the heels of Micron’s announcement.

In terms of DRAM, current contract pricing remains higher than the total production cost of various mainstream suppliers. Therefore, compared with NAND Flash, it remains to be seen whether there will be a significant reduction in production. In addition to mentioning the slight reduction in capacity utilization in this sector currently, Micron mainly emphasized its sharp downward revision of capital expenditures in 2023 and that the annual growth of DRAM production bits next year will only be around 5%. TrendForce believes, according to Micron, to actualize such conservative bit growth means that there is still room for a significant downward revision in capacity utilization and the extent to which Micron's subsequent production reductions are implemented remains to be seen.

In terms of NAND Flash, Micron originally planned to gradually increase its proportion of 232-layer products from 4Q22. However, with the implementation of the company’s decision to reduce production, Micron's mainstream processes are estimated to remain dominated by 176-layer products in 2023, while wafer starts in legacy processes will also fall. Kioxia and WDC originally planned to migrate to 162-layer products starting in 4Q22 but WDC slowed CapEx in 2023. When funding is hard to come by and demand visibility poor, the proportion of 162-layer products will fall greatly and the company’s original plan to replace mainstream 112-layer products in 2023 will not be achieved.

More manufactures limiting bit output cannot be ruled out as only large-scale production reduction can reverse supply/demand imbalance in 2023

After analyzing 2023 supply and demand in the memory market, due to a conservative demand outlook, DRAM and NAND Flash look to be greatly oversupplied in each quarter and inventory pressure will continue to accelerate in 1H23. In the DRAM sector, after Micron led the way to announce a DRAM production reduction plan that will fall far below historical levels of supply-side bit growth, the 2023 DRAM Sufficiency Ratio will contract from the 11.6% previously forecast by TrendForce to less than 10%, helping to alleviate rapidly deteriorating inventory pressure. However, more suppliers must be relied on to join in the actual reduction of DRAM production in the future in order to reverse the supply and demand imbalance next year.

It is imperative to reduce bit supply in the NAND Flash field due to the large number of competitors and the fact that manufacturers have yet to encroach on the physical limits of manufacturing. Considering that supply-side bit growth from Micron and Kioxia has been downgraded, the 2023 NAND Flash Sufficiency Ratio will drop significantly from the original estimate of 10.1% to 5.6%. Under the expectation that more NAND Flash suppliers will join the ranks reducing production due to loss considerations, inventory pressure is expected to ease in the 2Q23, while price declines are expected to diminish in 2H23.

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To: Sam who wrote (89079)10/3/2022 12:54:28 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 92533
 
(1) RRP is a reflection of pros, not retail.
(2) At 4% and the market falling, this is not so much fear as putting money to work
(3) Over the weekend I updated that post to "BTFD died last week" <g>

Still not enough fear, but without BTFD, we should get there in October.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (89081)10/3/2022 12:57:14 PM
From: Sam
2 Recommendations   of 92533
 
deleted--
I should have checked with Mr. Google first.

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To: Sam who wrote (89082)10/3/2022 1:02:13 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 92533
 

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (89083)10/3/2022 3:21:00 PM
From: Sam
   of 92533
 
I think heavy institutional selling should abate here since so many of them are on a September year. There will still be some selling but more buying this month, then a little more selling in November depending on what happens in the election and how those are assessed. And of course there are so many geopolitical wild cards that could affect the economies around the world. If Xi lifts his zero COVID policies, it would make a big difference in both the markets and the economies around the world. Or if Pukin gives up in Ukraine (not that I give that a large probability)... that too would make a big difference.

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89074)10/3/2022 4:04:41 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 92533
 
BPNDX Rose 3 to 17 PnF Buy Signals - [AMAT KLAC MELI REGN added ILMN removed]

Fri Mon
ADP ADP
BIIB AMAT
CPRT BIIB
DDOG CPRT
FAST DDOG
GILD FAST
ILMN GILD
KDP KDP
ORLY KLAC
SIRI MELI
TMUS ORLY
VRTX REGN
WDAY SIRI

TMUS

VRSN

VRTX

WDAY

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89075)10/3/2022 4:07:50 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 92533
 
2 New PnF Buy Signals for the BPSOX Today up from ZERO:

Mon
AMAT
KLAC

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To: Sam who wrote (89084)10/3/2022 4:08:13 PM
From: Sun Tzu
1 Recommendation   of 92533
 
You are a fund manager. You can make 4% to wait for the market to bottom, or you can try to catch falling knives. Which will you choose?

As for Xi and China - they have already started helping their housing market, which is why copper jumped so much today. But ultimately they need to get their economy back on track and that doesn't seem very likely.

The market is highly oversold and some bounces are in the cards. But the official earning estimates are too high. And everyone knows that. So what you want to watch is what will happen after the pre-announcements. Is there more selling to be done, or will they behave like MU.

In fact, MU may be a good indicator.

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89076)10/3/2022 4:10:59 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 92533
 
3 New 52 Week Lows Today on the NDX and No New 52 Week Highs:

New Lows:

Fri Mon
AMAT BKNG
ANSS EBAY
AVGO ZM
BKNG
CHTR
CMCSA
CSCO
CSX
CTSH
EBAY
GOOGL
INTC
LRCX
MDLZ
MSFT
QCOM
SPLK
SWKS







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