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   Technology StocksSemi Equipment Analysis


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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89064)9/29/2022 11:54:58 PM
From: Sr K
   of 94293
 
I count 16

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To: Sam who wrote (89061)9/30/2022 10:55:36 AM
From: Return to Sender
3 Recommendations   of 94293
 
MU is up today. Reading some of the headlines yesterday you would have thought no way should MU be trading higher.

MU is up today.

Analysts are cutting estimates and lowering price targets.

MU is up today.

The world is not coming to an end. MU will eventually be up a lot more but...

MU is up today:


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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89067)9/30/2022 11:44:33 AM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 94293
 
Hi RtS,

UP on bad news is a washed out stock NO?

Les's numbers on semis are quite bleak. Note two zeroes!

Semiconductor (58) 0 0 3 5 9 6 8 7 67 12 33 17

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (89068)9/30/2022 12:03:20 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 94293
 
The numbers cannot get much worse Bob. If MU is any indication then stocks in this group can trade upward on bad results. That is one of the sure signs of a bottom.

In past cycle bottoms we have heard things like we cannot give clear forward guidance because of how bad the situation is now. We may have to get there this time as well.

So while I expect a rally throughout earnings season until the Fed starts to see data clearly showing the economy has slowed we cannot expect them to stop raising rates.

September is the worst month historically for the market.

October is where market rallies often begin. Sometimes very important bottoms.

RtS

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89069)9/30/2022 1:11:26 PM
From: Johnny Canuck
1 Recommendation   of 94293
 
These guys are attributing the strength in MU to projected growth the 2H of 2023.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (89070)9/30/2022 3:08:56 PM
From: Return to Sender
   of 94293
 
They have to say something. Here is what Briefing.com said yesterday after earnings were reported by MU:

Micron beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; reducing supply growth, including ~50% fab equipment capex cut versus last year

4:07 PM ET 9/29/22 | Briefing.com

Reports Q4 (Aug) earnings of $1.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.38; revenues fell 19.7% year/year to $6.64 bln vs the $6.78 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $(0.06)-$0.14, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.72 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $4.0-4.5 bln vs. $5.68 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.Co added, "We are taking decisive steps to reduce our supply growth including a nearly 50% wafer fab equipment capex cut versus last year, and we expect to emerge from this downcycle well positioned to capitalize on the long-term demand for memory and storage."

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89071)9/30/2022 3:15:01 PM
From: Johnny Canuck
   of 94293
 
50 percent cut to capex is pretty dramatic, but memory has always been a cyclical business.
MU is a significant percentage of revenue for AMAT and LRCX if I remember right.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (89072)9/30/2022 3:40:25 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 94293
 
It's hard to find much good news out there right now, so we'll leave you with at least one bright spot heading into the weekend. Based on historical price action for the S&P during mid-term election years since WW2, today has historically been the absolute low point of the year:



Best regards,

Bespoke Investment Group, LLC

105 Calvert Street, Suite 100

Harrison, NY 10528

914-315-1248

www.bespokepremium.com

Twitter: @bespokeinvest

You are absolutely right about LRCX and AMAT being big suppliers of equipment to MU. I play tennis weekly with a guy from LRCX in Boise. A whole lot of my friends who work or have worked at MU also are great tennis players too. Keeps me young.

RtS

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89062)9/30/2022 4:13:34 PM
From: Return to Sender
1 Recommendation   of 94293
 
BPNDX Fell 1 to 13 PnF Buy Signals - [BKNG CSCO PEP removed DDOG WDAY added]

Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri
ADP ADP ADP ADP ADP
AEP AEP AEP BIIB BIIB
CPRT CPRT BIIB BKNG CPRT
CSCO CSCO BKNG CPRT DDOG
FAST FAST CPRT CSCO FAST
GILD GILD CSCO FAST GILD
KDP KDP FAST GILD ILMN
PEP PEP GILD ILMN KDP
SIRI SIRI KDP KDP ORLY
TMUS TMUS ORLY ORLY SIRI
VRTX VRTX PEP PEP TMUS


SIRI SIRI VRTX


TMUS TMUS WDAY


VRTX VRTX

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89063)9/30/2022 4:23:42 PM
From: Return to Sender
1 Recommendation   of 94293
 
ZERO PnF Buy Signals for the BPSOX Again as [ENTG is removed]

Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri
CRUS
ENTG ENTG

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