| To: Return to Sender who wrote (89057) | 9/29/2022 7:00:58 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | BPNDX Remains 14 PnF Buy Signals - [AEP removed ILMN added]
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| To: Return to Sender who wrote (89059) | 9/29/2022 7:29:36 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | 14 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX and No New 52 Week Highs:
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| To: Return to Sender who wrote (89060) | 9/29/2022 7:35:53 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | |
Market Snapshot
briefing.com
| Dow | 29026.82 | -658.95 | (-2.22%) | | Nasdaq | 10638.24 | -413.25 | (-3.74%) | | SP 500 | 3613.91 | -105.20 | (-2.83%) | | 10-yr Note | -1/32 | 3.75 |
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| | NYSE | Adv 512 | Dec 2523 | Vol 1.0 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1105 | Dec 3030 | Vol 4.4 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: -- |
| | Weak: Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
-- Rising Treasury yields
-- Initial jobless claims falling, giving the Fed a basis to continue aggressive rate hikes
-- UK Prime Minister Truss doubling down on tax cut plans, fueling volatility for the UK gilt and British pound
-- Geopolitical tension as President Putin is set to announce annexation of four Ukrainian territories
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Closing Summary
29-Sep-22 16:25 ET
Dow -458.13 at 29227.64, Nasdaq -314.13 at 10737.36, S&P -78.57 at 3640.54
[BRIEFING.COM] There was a heavy sell off in the market today. Yesterday's rally effort was completely undone as the S&P 500 fell to a fresh low for 2022 (3610.40). The major indices were able to climb off session lows ahead of the close, but still suffered big losses.
The stock market was weighed down by Apple's (AAPL 142.48, -7.36, -4.9%) outsized loss following a BofA downgrade to Neutral from Buy that was tied to concerns about negative earnings estimate revisions being driven by weaker consumer demand.
Market participants were also dealing with rate hike and recession concerns after Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) said that the Fed is not yet in restrictive territory with its policy rate. This was followed closely by the weekly initial jobless claims number, which fell to the lowest level (193,000) since early May, giving the Fed a basis to maintain an aggressive line with its rate hikes.
Adding fuel to the fire, UK Prime Minister Truss defended her tax cut plan in spite of the tumult it has caused for the UK gilt and British pound. This only added to participants' unwillingness to take on risk in an environment charged with worries, given all the volatility across capital markets, about a systemic issue coming to light.
Geopolitical worries were at the forefront, too, with President Putin expected to announce the annexation of four Ukraine territories on Friday. This is cause for concern due to Putin's earlier claim that Russia will take all actions necessary, including using nuclear weapons, if its territorial interests are threatened.
There was a noticeable drop in Treasury yields from earlier highs, yet that did not offer much support for the stock market. The 10-yr yield was at 3.81% shortly before the open and settled at 3.75%, up four basis points from yesterday. The 2-yr note yield, which hit 4.23% at its overnight high, settled up seven basis points at 4.17%.
Decliners led advancers by a 5-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
Mega cap stocks were among the biggest losers today, led by Apple. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) fell 2.7% versus a 1.9% loss in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 2.1% loss in the S&P 500.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with losses that ranged from 4.1% (utilities) to 0.1% (energy). Consumer discretionary (-3.4%) closed near the bottom of the pack, weighed down by recession concerns and disappointing quarterly results from CarMax (KMX 65.15, -21.26, -24.6%).
Energy complex futures settled the session lower. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.5% to $81.55/bbl; natural gas futures fell 1.0% to $6.86/mmbtu; unleaded gasoline futures fell 1.4% to $2.41/gal.
Carnival (CCL) will report earnings ahead of tomorrow's open.
Looking ahead to Friday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 8:30 ET: August Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%), and core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.1%)
- 9:45 ET: September Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 51.9; prior 52.2)
- 10:00 ET: Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 59.5; prior 59.5)
Reviewing today's economic data:
- Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 193,000 (Briefing.com consensus 213,000) following last week's revised count of 209,000 (from 213,000). Continuing claims totaled 1.347 million following last week's revised count of 1.376 million (form 1.379 million)
- The key takeaway from the report is the same as last week: The low level of initial claims -- a leading indicator -- will register with the Fed as a basis to maintain an aggressive line with its rate hikes since it sees a softening in the labor market as a necessary ingredient for helping to bring inflation back down to its 2.0% target. To be sure, an initial claims reading below 200,000 is not at all consistent with a labor market softening in a manner that would placate Fed officials.
- The Q2 GDP Third Estimate was unchanged from the prior reading, which showed a 0.6% decline (Briefing.com consensus -0.6%). The Q2 GDP Deflator Third Estimate was 9.0% (Briefing.com consensus 8.9%) following the prior reading of 8.9%
- The key takeaway from this report is that it won't register at all as a market mover since we are a day away from being done with the third quarter.
- Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a build of 103 bcf versus a build of 103 bcf last week
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -19.6% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -21.9% YTD
S&P 500: -23.6% YTD
Russell 2000: -25.4% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -31.4% YTD
Market lifts off lows ahead of close
29-Sep-22 15:30 ET
Dow -545.89 at 29139.88, Nasdaq -369.75 at 10681.74, S&P -92.02 at 3627.09
[BRIEFING.COM] The major average inched somewhat off session lows ahead of the close.
After the close, Nike (NKE) and Micron (MU) report earnings. Carnival (CCL) will report earnings ahead of tomorrow's open.
Looking ahead to Friday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 8:30 ET: August Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%), and core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.1%)
- 9:45 ET: September Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 51.9; prior 52.2)
- 10:00 ET: Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 59.5; prior 59.5)
Market clings to session lows
29-Sep-22 15:00 ET
Dow -658.95 at 29026.82, Nasdaq -413.25 at 10638.24, S&P -105.20 at 3613.91
[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices are moving sideways near session lows.
Energy complex futures settled the session lows. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.5% to $81.55/bbl; natural gas futures fell 1.0% to $6.86/mmbtu; unleaded gasoline futures fell 1.4% to $2.41/gal.
On a related note, BP (BP 28.62, +0.06, +0.2%) and Chevron (CVX 144.00, -1.78, -1.2%) restarted oil production in areas impacted by Hurricane Ian, according to Oil Price.
Caesars slips after Nevada gaming data, Chubb outperforms in aftermath of Ian landfall
29-Sep-22 14:30 ET
Dow -661.79 at 29023.98, Nasdaq -418.39 at 10633.10, S&P -106.06 at 3613.05
[BRIEFING.COM] The benchmark S&P 500 (-2.85%) is still in second place on Thursday afternoon.
S&P 500 constituents Caesars Entertainment (CZR 31.76, -2.74, -7.94%), Generac (GNRC 171.60, -15.77, -8.42%), and Bath & Body Works (BBWI 33.26, -2.12, -5.99%) dot the bottom of the standings. CZR gains after August Nevada gaming metrics, GNRC slips a day after a modest rebound, while BBWI falls after retail peer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 5.84, -0.62, -9.60%) reported a wider than expected Q2 loss.
Meanwhile, insurance firm Chubb (CB 182.95, +2.63, +1.46%) is one of today's better performers, gains possibly connected to Hurricane Ian.
Gold slightly lower as yields gain
29-Sep-22 14:00 ET
Dow -617.45 at 29068.32, Nasdaq -391.70 at 10659.79, S&P -98.37 at 3620.74
[BRIEFING.COM] The broader market slips to session lows in recent trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-3.54%) still the worst performer.
Gold futures settled down $1.40 (-0.1%) to $1,668.60/oz, pressured by gains in yields with losses capped by a modestly weaker dollar.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.2% to $112.33.
MillerKnoll shares sink below pandemic lows after a Q1 sales miss and weak Q2 guidance
The warning signs flashed by fellow office furniture manufacturers HNI Corp (HNI) and Steelcase (SCS) materialized in the form of a Q1 (Aug) sales miss and downbeat Q2 (Nov) guidance for MillerKnoll (MLKN -12%) yesterday after the bell. While MLKN was optimistic in late June regarding the foundation its elevated backlog provided for AugQ, HNI's slashed FY22 outlook and SCS's missed AugQ sales expectations on weak order growth set an uneasy backdrop for MLKN heading into its AugQ report. Coinciding with MLKN's disappointing results is an analyst downgrade at Craig Hallum today.
- Many of MLKN's AugQ numbers illuminate the headwinds its peers faced recently. Softness has ticked up globally, with some areas much worse than others. In the U.S., which is included in MLKN's Americas Contract segment (~50.0% total AugQ revs), businesses displayed inflation concerns, placing smaller orders. Meanwhile, in MLKN's Global Retail segment, performance was adversely affected by a shift in consumer tastes toward experiences, such as travel, similar to what we heard from Wayfair (W) last month.
- The challenges in AugQ culminated in revenue growth of 36.6% yr/yr, coming in at the low end of MLKN's prior guidance of $1.08-1.12 bln. Meanwhile, organic revs fell 12% yr/yr as orders slumped 11%, primarily driven by MLKN's Americas Contract and Global Retail segments.
- A bright spot stemmed from MLKN's International Contract & Specialty segment, where organic sales climbed 30% yr/yr on a 1% improvement in new orders. MLKN's international presence acts as a key competitive advantage, and the company does not expect to let up on expanding anytime soon. In fact, MLKN is looking to bolster its overseas footprint by introducing its international dealer cross-sell pilot to India and the EMEA region later this year.
- MLKN's guidance illustrated the stickiness of current headwinds. For NovQ, the company expects EPS of $0.39-0.45, a 17.6% drop yr/yr at the midpoint, and revs of $1.027-1.067 bln, just 2.0% growth yr/yr at the midpoint.
Conversely, MLKN noticed supply chain stabilization as lead times returned to near normal levels in the quarter. Also, MLKN expects to see traction from net price hikes and cost reduction initiatives translate to meaningful margin expansion in subsequent quarters. Although this does depend on moderated inflationary pressures, recent CPI reports indicate that this massive headwind may be cooling off.
Bottom line, with investors sending shares of MLKN below pandemic lows, MLKN is in the hot seat. If inflationary pressures are not enough, the company must also adapt to increasing levels of hybrid work. Its brands are strong, and overseas growth is encouraging. However, we view the near term as too uncertain and think it is better to remain on the sidelines until MLKN works through some of its challenges.
Jefferies upside results aided by sale of a non-core asset, but IB business gains share again (JEF)
Jefferies (JEF), which continues to expand its investment banking operations as it takes aim at Wall Street's biggest names, reported better-than-expected Q3 results in a very volatile environment. Since JEF issues quarterly results a few weeks before earnings season kicks in for the financial sector, the company's performance is often viewed as a precursor for what's to come. On the surface, JEF's top and bottom-line beat looks like an encouraging sign, suggesting that business conditions may be healthier than many assume. However, when taking a closer look at JEF's results, we don't believe its upside report necessarily points to many similar outcomes in the weeks ahead.
- By far, JEF's strongest segment was Merchant Banking, which generated revenue growth of 60% to $397.8 mln. The increase was mainly driven by the sale of Idaho Timber in July for $239 mln. Given that JEF is winding down its Merchant Banking business and is looking to sell off the rest of its portfolio (Vitesse Energy, Linkem, FXCM Group, JETX Energy), it's not a positive sign that this segment led the way. In fact, it removes some of the luster from JEF's earnings beat and largely nullifies the notion that its outperformance bodes well for its competitors.
- Where JEF really wants to shine is in its Investment Banking (IB) unit. Heightened market volatility and rising macroeconomic uncertainties make it a very difficult environment for JEF's IB business to prosper in, but the company believes that it gained market share once again in Q3. If that is the case, then companies like Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), must have struggled mightily in Q3 because JEF's IB revenue fell by 44% yr/yr to $681.8 mln.
- With the IPO market remaining nearly frozen in Q3, it's not surprising that JEF's equity underwriting revenue plunged by 59% to $150.9 mln. The collapse was even worse for debt underwriting, which took a 66% nosedive.
- M&A activity has also slowed considerably, but the 17% drop in advisory revenue may be better than some expected, especially since JEF lapped record high advisory revenue of $584 mln in the year-earlier period.
- On the Capital Markets side, net revenue edged higher by 2% yr/yr to $452.1 mln, driven by higher commissions and a 17% increase in equities trading. Rising interest rates created a major headwind for fixed income trading, though, as reflected in the 15% yr/yr drop.
- This decline is especially worrisome for a company like MS that generates a substantial amount of revenue from fixed income trading. In 2Q22, MS's fixed income trading revenue totaled $2.5 bln, representing nearly 20% of total revenue.
The main takeaway is that JEF's upside performance may not be quite as strong as it seems since the sale of its Idaho Timber asset played a major role. Undoubtedly, business conditions are turbulent, particularly for the investment banking and fixed income trading businesses. It's also worth pointing out that JEF, and its peers, are lapping very difficult yr/yr comparisons in the investment banking business. Overall, JEF's results were perhaps a little better than feared, but they also didn't provide a very upbeat outlook for other financial companies that are poised to report in the weeks ahead.
Bed Bath & Beyond reports a larger-than-expected loss as it makes a lot of changes (BBBY)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -5%) is holding up fairly well today despite a much larger than expected loss with its Q2 (Aug) report this morning. However, the good news was that revenue was in-line and same store comps of -26% were in-line with prior guidance. Also, it sounds like BBBY is making some early progress on the strategic and financial actions it announced last month.
- To quickly review, on the financial side, BBBY announced in August that it will implement an at-the-market (ATM) 12 mln share offering program. On the strategic side, BBBY will be scaling back its owned brands to focus more on National brands. There were also some cost cutting measures, including closing 150 stores and cutting corporate and supply chain staff by 20%. It also reduced its FY22 cap-ex guidance to $250 mln from $400 mln. We were also surprised to hear BBBY put the kibosh on any talk of spinning off or selling its buybuy BABY segment.
- Looking ahead, the next big decision will be the naming of a new CEO. Sue Gove is acting as interim CEO for now. We thought we might get a new person named today, but that was not the case.
- Quickly on the comps, the Bed Bath & Beyond banner was the main culprit for the large comp decline, coming in at -28%, reflecting a legacy merchandise assortment, out of stocks, and continued trends in customer traffic. buybuy BABY was a bit better, not great with a comp decline in the high-teens as this banner focused on maintaining market share. It was also lapping tough high-teens comps in the year ago period.
- In terms of the big loss, it seems that the changes that were just announced last month will take time to impact the P&L. However, BBBY says it is made progress in Q2 relative to Q1, including accelerated markdowns and promotions. Also, BBBY is seeing positive sales trends where in-stock positions and visual merchandising have improved. Also, its Welcome Rewards loyalty program has grown rapidly since launching this summer.
Overall, we think investors were expecting a rough and messy quarter, especially on EPS given all the merchandise and other recent changes. So this was not a surprise and explains why the stock is holding up. We remain cautious on BBBY and would avoid the stock. We suspect it will remain volatile given its meme status and short squeeze potential. Also, the ATM offering is likely to keep a lid on the shares. We do not expect a near term turnaround.
CarMax amid a sell-off following a sizeable Q2 EPS miss sparked by softening market conditions (KMX)
By reporting Q2 (Aug) earnings and revs considerably below consensus as retail and wholesale units sold tumbled yr/yr, used car retailer CarMax (KMX -22%) is facing intense selling pressure today. Typical macroeconomic headwinds, such as rising rates and high inflation, were in full force during the quarter. KMX's lackluster results are taking a slew of other auto retailers down with it, including Carvana (CVNA -21%), AutoNation (AN -10%), and Group 1 Automotive (GPI -12%), to name a few.
There were still some positive numbers from AugQ, albeit rather slim, comprised mainly of a 4.4% yr/yr climb in gross profit per retail used unit, as well as a 50.0% increase in vehicles purchased compared to before KMX launched its pre-Instant Offer two years ago. However, these few bright spots were made dull from gross profit per retail used unit falling 2.4% sequentially as average selling prices continued to fall qtr/qtr. Likewise, on a yr/yr basis, KMX's vehicles purchased slid by 8.1%.
- Perhaps the most glaring issues from AugQ were the underwhelming headline numbers. Earnings dropped 54% yr/yr to $0.79 on top-line growth of just 2.0% to $8.14 bln. Meanwhile, same-store used unit sales fell by -8.3%.
- In late June, KMX noted that through the first few weeks of AugQ, it was running a low single-digit decline in comp sales. However, KMX began seeing comps fall sharply in July and August, ending in mid-teen drops.
- Used vehicle unit sales ended the quarter down 6.4% yr/yr, while wholesale unit sales tumbled 15.1%. The wider wholesale drop was caused by KMX continuing to reallocate older vehicles from wholesale to retail to keep up with demand for lower-priced cars. KMX estimates wholesale unit sales would have fallen by less than 10% without this decision.
- Furthermore, gross profit per wholesale unit dipped 12.3% yr/yr. With wholesale prices at dealer auctions already falling by 2.3% through the first half of September, we suspect this trend will persist into Q3 (Nov).
- KMX's finance arm is also experiencing some headwinds, with income falling 8.6% yr/yr. On the bright side, KMX remains confident in its ability to leverage its credit platform to ensure Tier 1 credit losses remain within its 2.0-2.5% range.
Overall, economic headwinds took their toll on the retail auto industry and KMX in AugQ. Despite the gloomy near-term future, KMX did offer a few encouraging remarks. Like rival CVNA noted last month, KMX stated that it continued to grow its market share. We believe these companies can simultaneously capture market share as consumers shift away from the traditional dealer model to more online/e-commerce offerings. Also, KMX continued to make in-roads on its strategic growth initiatives, such as investments to advance its online platform.
Nevertheless, as we pointed out last quarter, KMX faces a bumpy road ahead. Although car prices fell slightly from last quarter, they were still up nearly 10% yr/yr. As inflation remains widespread, consumers will have fewer dollars to allocate toward these rising car prices, especially as KMX's inventory of sub-$25K vehicles is shrinking.
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| To: Sam who wrote (89061) | 9/30/2022 10:55:36 AM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | MU is up today. Reading some of the headlines yesterday you would have thought no way should MU be trading higher.
MU is up today.
Analysts are cutting estimates and lowering price targets.
MU is up today.
The world is not coming to an end. MU will eventually be up a lot more but...
MU is up today:
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (89068) | 9/30/2022 12:03:20 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | The numbers cannot get much worse Bob. If MU is any indication then stocks in this group can trade upward on bad results. That is one of the sure signs of a bottom.
In past cycle bottoms we have heard things like we cannot give clear forward guidance because of how bad the situation is now. We may have to get there this time as well.
So while I expect a rally throughout earnings season until the Fed starts to see data clearly showing the economy has slowed we cannot expect them to stop raising rates.
September is the worst month historically for the market.
October is where market rallies often begin. Sometimes very important bottoms.
RtS |
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| To: Return to Sender who wrote (89069) | 9/30/2022 1:11:26 PM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | | These guys are attributing the strength in MU to projected growth the 2H of 2023.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
| Reversing early strength as a group premarket, shares of MU are active trading higher even as the company warned of continued falling demand for PCs and smartphones and said it was cutting its investments. The did however forecast strong revenue growth in the second half of fiscal 2023 as demand starts to recover early next year. Micron forecast first-quarter revenue of $4.25 billion, plus or minus $250 million, below Wall Street estimates of $5.62 billion, according Refinitiv data. Adjusted revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 1 was $6.64 billion versus analysts' expectations of $6.68 billion.
AMD, MU, NVDA, INTC, AMAT
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| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (89070) | 9/30/2022 3:08:56 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | They have to say something. Here is what Briefing.com said yesterday after earnings were reported by MU:
Micron beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; reducing supply growth, including ~50% fab equipment capex cut versus last year
4:07 PM ET 9/29/22 | Briefing.com
Reports Q4 (Aug) earnings of $1.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.38; revenues fell 19.7% year/year to $6.64 bln vs the $6.78 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $(0.06)-$0.14, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.72 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $4.0-4.5 bln vs. $5.68 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.Co added, "We are taking decisive steps to reduce our supply growth including a nearly 50% wafer fab equipment capex cut versus last year, and we expect to emerge from this downcycle well positioned to capitalize on the long-term demand for memory and storage." |
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