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   Technology StocksSemi Equipment Analysis

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To: Sam who wrote (83429)6/7/2019 7:38:12 PM
From: Sam
1 Recommendation   of 84832
Estimates have been steadily coming down for awhile now. Here are the latest that I have received.

First Call released annual estimates for Micron Technology Inc of $6.32. This is 47.09% lower than last year's results for the year.

Fiscal Year Earnings Activity

[ This is a very poor substitute for Don's wonderful charts, but I guess its the best we can do unless he comes back or trains someone else to do what he did so well and diligently for so long! ]

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (83423)6/8/2019 11:08:31 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 84832

Jun 7

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (83424)6/8/2019 11:16:09 PM
From: Return to Sender
1 Recommendation   of 84832
BPSOX unchanged at 13

June 7


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To: Return to Sender who wrote (83432)6/8/2019 11:25:08 PM
From: Return to Sender
3 Recommendations   of 84832
19 New Highs 52 Week Highs on the NDX and No New 52 Week Lows on Friday June 7, 2019

New Highs

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (83433)6/8/2019 11:28:11 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 84832
Stocks gain on increased expectations for rate cut following soft jobs data
07-Jun-19 16:25 ET
Dow +263.28 at 25983.94, Nasdaq +126.55 at 7742.08, S&P +29.85 at 2873.34

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% on Friday, and 4.4% for the week, after soft employment data for May increased expectations for the Fed to cut rates this year. Leadership from some of the stock market's biggest names set the pace.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%), the Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%), and the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) extended their weekly gains to 4.7%, 3.9%, and 3.3%, respectively.

The Employment Situation Report for May showed nonfarm payrolls increase by just 75,000 ( consensus 180,000) and average hourly earnings increase 0.2% ( consensus 0.3%). Year-over-year, average hourly earnings were up 3.1% versus 3.2% in April.

The market is hoping the data-dependent Fed will consider the soft job creation and soft wage-based inflation in its upcoming meetings as a case to lower the fed funds rate.

This optimism contributed to big gains in Facebook (FB 173.35, +5.02, +3.0%), Apple (AAPL 190.15, +4.93, +2.7%), Amazon (AMZN 1804.03, +49.67, +2.8%), Alphabet (GOOG 1066.04, +21.70, +2.1%), and Microsoft (MSFT 131.40, +3.58, +2.8%).

In turn, their outperformance contributed to the leadership from the S&P 500 information technology (+1.9%), consumer discretionary (+1.6%), and communication services (+1.5%) sectors. The financials (-0.2%) and utilities (-0.7%) sectors, however, were left out of the rally.

Aside from the bullish disposition in equities, the fed funds futures market and Treasury market have been flashing strong expectations for at least one rate cut this year.

The fed funds futures market currently sees an 85.6% implied likelihood of a rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting. On Friday, the 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.84%, and the 10-yr yield declined four basis points to 2.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.5% to 96.58. WTI crude rose 2.4% to $53.92/bbl.

In earnings news, shares of Beyond Meat (BYND 138.65, +39.15) shot up 39.4% on positive results and guidance. Zoom Video Communications (ZM 94.05, +14.62) posted a humbler, but still impressive, gain of 18.4% after it also pleased investors with its earnings results and guidance.

Separately, immigration talks with Mexico were still ongoing in Washington. Market participants were hopeful that there could still be a deal to avert the planned tariffs on Mexico from going into effect on Monday.

Reviewing Friday's economic data, which included the Employment Situation Report for May, Wholesale Inventories for April, and Consumer Credit for April:

  • The May employment report was soft on job creation and soft on average hourly earnings growth. May nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 ( consensus 180,000). May average hourly earnings were up 0.2% ( consensus +0.3%), after increasing 0.2% in April.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it gives the Fed some data-based cover to cut the target range for the fed funds rate in the not-too-distant future, assuming some positive development on the trade front doesn't unleash animal spirits in the capital markets and global economy.
  • Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in April ( consensus +0.7%) on top of an upwardly revised unchanged indication (from -0.1%) for March. Wholesale sales declined 0.4% following a downwardly revised 1.8% increase (from 2.3%) in March.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that inventory growth continues to outpace sales growth on a year-over-year basis, which should help keep price pressures in check.
  • Total outstanding consumer credit increased by $17.5 billion in April ( consensus $13.0 billion) after increasing an upwardly revised $11.0 billion (from $10.3 billion) in March.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the increase in consumer credit in April was driven by both nonrevolving credit and revolving credit, unlike the gain in March which was driven entirely by nonrevolving credit.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the JOLTS - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April on Monday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +16.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +14.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +12.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.4% YTD

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (83434)6/8/2019 11:50:28 PM
From: Return to Sender
   of 84832
65% Upside Volume on the NYSE - 75% Upside Volume on the NASDAQ - I am concerned that this rally is not being led by semiconductor related stocks (RtS)

Find Historical Data | WHAT'S THIS?
Friday, June 07, 2019
Notice to readers: As of 3/3/11, Closing ARMS Index (TRIN) calculation is based on composite data. Click here for historical data prior to 3/3/11.
NYSE Latest close Previous close Week ago
Issues traded 3,045 3,049 3,030
Advances 2,189 1,707 915
Declines 774 1,242 2,043
Unchanged 82 100 72
New highs 292 194 82
New lows 46 102 252
Adv. volume* 474,399,650 490,079,516 248,669,647
Decl. volume* 227,322,739 290,287,111 711,652,754
Total volume* 727,972,804 789,772,069 971,989,880
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.37 0.86 1.44
Block trades* 4,821 5,083 8,229
Adv. volume 2,123,458,856 2,106,967,623 914,442,182
Decl. volume 1,031,625,860 1,324,532,438 2,932,635,342
Total volume 3,245,789,034 3,475,017,594 3,897,193,660
Nasdaq Latest close Previous close Week ago
Issues traded 3,211 3,203 3,210
Advances 2,033 1,365 808
Declines 1,053 1,717 2,311
Unchanged 125 121 91
New highs 152 81 64
New lows 111 142 235
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.59 0.66 0.90
Block trades 8,508 8,838 8,351
Adv. volume 1,550,440,878 1,153,347,510 607,854,580
Decl. volume 475,913,731 950,253,746 1,558,554,534
Total volume 2,064,294,413 2,129,312,566 2,188,061,779
NYSE American Latest close Previous close Week ago
Issues traded 281 279 280
Advances 160 122 104
Declines 107 148 167
Unchanged 14 9 9
New highs 10 7 4
New lows 6 11 13
Adv. volume* 6,280,431 3,605,723 5,580,471
Decl. volume* 3,314,708 6,035,451 6,379,548
Total volume* 10,038,133 9,891,802 12,252,685
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.75 1.25 0.66
Block trades* 122 118 191
Adv. volume 58,545,255 35,332,810 49,268,168
Decl. volume 29,227,772 53,775,636 52,174,405
Total volume 91,757,856 91,054,285 102,407,765
NYSE Arca Latest close Previous close Week ago
Issues traded 1,588 1,588 1,572
Advances 1,349 1,172 484
Declines 231 392 1,079
Unchanged 8 24 9
New highs 168 74 120
New lows 14 13 66
Adv. volume* 188,287,087 196,641,454 135,320,810
Decl. volume* 41,855,346 35,052,429 163,362,614
Total volume* 234,756,771 233,949,490 298,941,900
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.48 0.67 0.64
Block trades* 1,397 1,124 1,869
Adv. volume 869,693,528 893,775,294 596,508,243
Decl. volume 219,827,209 200,148,881 857,032,953
Total volume 1,111,141,686 1,104,875,095 1,457,837,850

*Primary market NYSE, NYSE American or NYSE Arca only. †Compares the ratio of advancing to declining issues with the ratio of volume of shares rising and falling. Arms Index or TRIN = (advancing issues / declining issues) / (composite volume of advancing issues / composite volume of declining issues.) Generally, an Arms of less than 1.00 indicates buying demand; above 1.00 indicates selling pressure.

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From: Sam6/9/2019 10:02:44 AM
3 Recommendations   of 84832
Huawei Accused Of Technology Theft
4:36 Download

June 8, 20198:31 AM ET
Heard on Weekend Edition Saturday
Emily Feng

Huawei has become one of the world's biggest manufacturers of cellphones and high-end telecom equipment. Its rise has come with multiple accusations of technology theft.


The Chinese company Huawei has become one of the world's telecom giants. And there are questions about how it got there, including accusations that it stole technology to get ahead. The Trump administration has now banned U.S. companies from using that equipment in its 5G infrastructure and recently laid out rules that would prevent American firms from doing business with Huawei. Few of those companies have been open about their past work with the Chinese company, but NPR's Emily Feng found that one was willing to talk.

EMILY FENG, BYLINE: It all began with a few missing pieces of glass - not just any kind of glass, however. Adam Khan, the CEO of AKHAN Semiconductor, explains.

ADAM KHAN: We made this world's first demonstration of a nanocrystalline diamond-based device.

FENG: Layman's translation - Khan made diamond-coated glass, and hype brought clients knocking. One of them was China's Huawei. They wanted the glass for their smartphone screens. Khan knew horror stories about companies having their tech copied by their Chinese partners. Diamond-coated components have military applications as well, so Khan knew his tech couldn't leave the U.S. without government permission.

KHAN: And also we were very forthright from the beginning that we can't allow this to ever be manufactured in China directly.

FENG: So after months of haggling, AKHAN Semiconductors sent Huawei's San Diego office a sample of its diamond glass last March with the promise that Huawei keep it in the U.S. and return it in 60 days. Instead, not only did Khan get the sample back after more than four months but...

KHAN: Immediately picking up the parcel and you could hear the broken glass, you know, we knew there was an issue.

FENG: Someone had blasted a laser at the glass to reverse engineer it. Shards were missing. Looking back, Khan says he should have known.

KHAN: At the very first meeting that we had in their San Diego facility, you know, they semi-jokingly were saying you should leave your samples behind. And we kind of laughed and said, yeah, that's not going to happen.

KATE O'KEEFFE: This culture really stems from the top and that senior people in the company are really the ones directing that everyone comply with this goal of getting technology by any means.

FENG: Kate O'Keeffe is a Wall Street Journal reporter who's collected multiple stories of alleged IP theft at Huawei. Among the cases she looked at - the 2010 suit in which Motorola sued Huawei for stealing trade secrets. The companies settled out of court. Then in 2014, T-Mobile sued Huawei for copying a phone-testing robot named Tappy. Huawei later paid millions in damages.

O'KEEFFE: When we looked at the indictment in the Tappy the robot case where we saw Huawei's employees here in the U.S. actually fighting back against these orders from management, management just wasn't satisfied with that and forced them to carry on.

FENG: Khan knew of these cases. So after he got back the box with the broken glass, he decided to partner with the FBI. Under their instruction, Khan called Huawei's San Diego office last December. To Khan's surprise, the Huawei employee, a woman named Angel Han, admitted the glass had been sent to China in violation of U.S. export control laws.

KHAN: They didn't seem bashful or reserved in making that comment.

FENG: And then suggested they meet at Nevada's annual Consumer Electronics Show to seal the deal. So in January, Khan and the FBI headed to Las Vegas. The Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas is a glitzy resort and casino with canals snaking through it. It also would be the site of Khan's confrontation with Huawei. FBI agents were close by. Khan's Huawei contact, Angel Han, met him there with her colleague. The tone was cheerful until Khan brought up the missing glass.

KHAN: That's really when the tone and the emotion did a 180 on their part. Angel had become very distressed, very worried immediately as soon as I mentioned the sample, asking, you know, is the U.S. government listening?

FENG: The meeting abruptly ended. Khan never heard from Huawei again, except for one almost unbelievable email.

KHAN: Stating that they would like to test our materials and that we can bring them to their San Diego facility.

FENG: The FBI raided Huawei's San Diego facility in late January. The agency did not respond to requests for comment on the investigation, which is still underway. Huawei declined to comment for this story. Khan, meanwhile, is determined to move on. He is accelerating his plans to bring his diamond-coated glass to market, but he couldn't help himself from looking back just once. A few weeks ago, he drove past Huawei's San Diego office. The Huawei sign had disappeared. Emily Feng, NPR News.

Copyright © 2019 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

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From: Sam6/9/2019 11:43:54 AM
2 Recommendations   of 84832
Past and current Micron employees report job cuts, Micron silent on numbers
  • 20 hrs ago


    Excellent article on Micron in Boise. They have been laying off people there while increasing numbers in other places like San Jose and Taiwan. Not the first time in Boise. But they are much larger company now with a far greater international presence and more diversified technology. This article gives a Boise perspective. They just built a large research fab in Boise, so they will have a large presence there for the foreseeable future. But I doubt if they will employ 11000 people there in the future. Well, unless Silicon Valley gets so expensive and ingrown that the talent pool there starts to disappear. Its hard to see that happening right now, but who knows, stranger things have happened over the years. Earthquakes, for example.

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    From: Sam6/9/2019 2:28:01 PM
    3 Recommendations   of 84832
    Taiwan now No.1 biggest semiconductor equipment spender in world
    Taiwan takes the No.1 spot in semiconductor equipment spending, bucking worldwide downturn
    By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
    2019/06/05 15:09

    TAIPEI (Taiwan News) -- Taiwan was the biggest spender on semiconductor equipment in the first quarter of this year, bucking a worldwide downtrend in the industry, announced SEMI on Tuesday (May 4).

    Semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings for the first quarter from Taiwan leaped from US$2.81 billion from the fourth quarter last year to US$3.81 billion in the first quarter this year, representing an increase of 36 percent, reported SEMI. This also represented a massive 68 percent increase from the US$2.27 billion in billings from Taiwan in the first quarter last year.

    In the process, Taiwan pulled ahead of rival South Korea's US$2.89 billion, after it saw billings drop by 8 percent from the previous quarter and a year-on-year drop of 54 percent. China took third at US$2.36 billion, but also saw a 13 percent quarterly drop in billings and a year-on-year decline of 11 percent.

    North America took fourth place at US$1.67 billion, after it too saw a quarterly dip of 14 percent and a year-on-year plunge of 47 percent. Fifth place Japan took a heavy hit as well, with only US$1.55 in billings for the first quarter, a massive fall of 41 percent from the previous quarter, and a year-on-year skid of 27 percent.

    This bucked a global drop of semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings down to US$13.79 billion, a quarterly drop of 8 percent and a year-on-year plunge of 19 percent, based on data gathered by SEMI and the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan from 80 global equipment suppliers.

    continues at

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    To: Sam who wrote (83436)6/9/2019 9:34:24 PM
    From: Return to Sender
       of 84832
    InvestmentHouse - No Need to Fear, the Fed is Here (Weekend Newsletter)

    - Jobs report misses big headline and wages are slowing. No need to fear, the Fed is here.
    - Mexico tariffs put off. It is sad it took a tariff threat to get action, but it was the one thing that got Mexico to act.
    - Indices head higher another session in the rebound, again on less than solid internals.
    - Market downside technical setup versus the Fed backstop.
    - Fed may be behind the market again, but outside of some express talk about a rate cut, what more can the Fed do to drive stocks higher near term?
    - After a big rebound week, watch for some downside. But also watch for key support to hold and suggest new upside.

    Stocks stretched the post-Monday gains through Friday, aided by an even firmer conviction - thanks to a jobs report miss -- the Fed would cut rates, and the Administration indicating there would be no implementation of Mexican tariffs.

    Stock futures were higher ahead of jobs, fell on the paltry 75K gain in non-farm payrolls, but then reversed to pre-market highs as traders figured a weak number even further strengthened the odds for a near term rate cut. Stocks surged into midmorning then held the very solid gains through the close.

    SP500 29.85, 1.05%
    NASDAQ 126.55, 1.66%
    Dj30 263.28, 1.02%
    SP400 0.56%
    RUTX 0.72%
    SOX 1.15%
    NASDAQ 100 1.94%

    VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -3%


    The action on the week managed to wipe away the late May selling, the second leg lower in the selling from the April peak and the move that broke the head and shoulders patterns through the necklines. Impressive recovery in price.

    THE question, of course, is whether this was a repudiation of the break lower. I often say a head and shoulders pattern sets up just to fool you. These appeared to be serious, however, given they made up the second top to the large double top patterns.

    The key fact to us is they did not break up the larger patterns formed since January 2018, the topping 'process' as I have called it. Lower volumes, weaker breadth, thinner leadership on the upside. Even the Friday breadth was not great with NASDAQ not even 2:1 and NYSE decent at 2.8:1.

    That does not, however, keep you from playing upside moves as we did on this one. We took downside gain Monday, e.g. QID, then bought upside as the market rallied back Tuesday and on: HIIQ, DIS, TWLO, PEP, MCD - all provided good entries and HIIQ even gave us the gain on the week. These stocks were all in good patterns; in the kind of rebound move shown Friday, you get solid price moves even from stocks not in great patterns, e.g. AMZN, FB, GOOG. Of course we are already in other stocks that held decent patterns and started to move up again - as a good stock should: CL, PG, AMD, DE.

    Thus, some very good moves from stocks in good position to move as well as stocks whose patterns were cracked. That happens even in overall downside markets, and despite the 4 sessions of gains (outside DJ30 that squeaked out a Monday gain), the bias is still lower.

    No doubt the Fed and further rate cutting and other stimulus formerly known as 'extraordinary' that Powell now views as normal provides powerful upside stimulus - it did so for 9 years. If the Fed is truly in the game of playing market backstop - as the market appeared to believe to end the week, then even the 17 month topping action can give way to new highs.

    That leaves the market at another proof point: will the top take over once more, or will the prospect of Fed intervention overcome the headline-led action and push stocks to new highs?

    Stubborn bid refuses to quit.

    Despite the negative overall look from the indices and many stock sectors, a few groups have steadily pointed higher. They are not typically viewed as related, but they are moving higher: personal products, software, food/eateries, social, credit services, drugs. We own some of these, bought into some on the week, and are looking at them more if they continue moving higher.

    Why would you do so if the bias remains down? The groups have been tested but have not broken. There is a certain continued bid in the market, and even after some of these stocks were tagged Monday, they recovered and held their patterns. That says a lot for the strength: the sellers tried to take them out, but they hung on and popped back upside. Again, that demonstrates a strong bid.

    Thus, even though we view the overall market pattern, internals, and leadership as downside, a stubborn bid remains. Moreover, that stubborn bid may be further augmented by the belief the Fed will help the markets sooner than later: bond yields are tanking, and no amount of Fed commentary otherwise, it fears deflation. Thus, I do believe the Fed will cut - not to join the crowd of 'I knew what was coming all along' pundits, but you recall I predicted a Fed cut in the making several months back. That, however, does not matter to the markets. What does matter is perceptions about the future, and with the Fed perceived as again having the market's back (okay, that is a growing perception, not a strong majority at the moment), the market could continue to find a bid. Has to prove it given the patterns, but the Fed is giving stocks a chance to move up when it looked as if they were in the process of rolling over.



    NASDAQ: Reversed off the Monday crash, rallying back up to the 50 day EMA by the Friday close. That puts NASDAQ back above the neckline in the head and shoulders pattern spanning early March to last week. Low volume, so-so breadth strongly suggest the move does not hold. As noted earlier, however, the Fed factor can thwart this downside technical setup - indeed, it helped thwart the break lower Monday.

    SP500: Surged back from the head and shoulders breakdown as well, rallying to the 50 day SMA and January 2018 high at the close. As with NASDAQ, lower volume on the recovery, so-so breadth. Obviously a nice break upside price-wise but now at a seriously important resistance level to start the week. This week it shows if this rebound can test normally and hold on. What would be normal? A test back to 2800. Then a rebound. What is that? It would form a right shoulder to a short inverted head and shoulders - yes, from a head and shoulders to an inverted one. Have to acknowledge the changes when they occur. Of course, the operative word is 'when.' Not there yet.

    DJ30: Up to the 50 day SMA as well, up all 5 sessions after showing a doji Monday just over the prior Friday low. Trying to break up that head and shoulders as well, back up to test the late February high in the left shoulder. Trying. Still has to prove it can do it.

    SOX: Up on the week after holding a key low at 1300 the prior week. Many chip stocks making the same rebound move. Thus far it is truly just a rebound in a negative pattern, though there is more upside room to continue the rebound.

    SP400: The midcaps posted an excellent week, up 5 sessions as was DJ30. Gapped lower two Fridays back then gapped upside Monday, a bit of an island reversal. Rallied through the 200 day SMA Friday with a gap, stalling at the 50 day EMA. That leaves SP400 smack in the middle of the range from February, and from our view, still downside bias unless the Fed has completely changed the game.

    RUTX: The small caps lagged the move, making to the lows from March. Only two solid upside moves on the week, Tuesday and Friday. The small caps are still lagging and still sport the weakest pattern in the market.


    FAANG: The patterns are hashed for the most part, but Friday saw money move in with some of the best volume since the selling. AMZN jumped the 200 day SMA on strong trade. Even AAPL made it to the 200 day SMA on a gap and rally, showing above average volume as well. FB showed similar action, recovering to the 10 day EMA on above average trade. NFLX made it through the 50 day SMA on the high, just could not make it stick. GOOG finally awoke after its Monday DOJ anti-trust slam lower.

    Personal products: Still solid, e.g. PG, CL, and EL.

    Chips: Some names are performing as the group put in an interim bottom and is attempting a bounce. AMD up again on a big upside week. AMAT slowly climbing but on light trade. TXN to the 50 day MA. XLNX looks as if it wants to break higher, just has not done so. SWKS edging upside. INTC broke upward through the 20 day EMA; it can still be a buy this week after it tests that Friday move early week.

    Software: After an ugly, ugly Monday, a very impressive recovery for this group. MSFT led the Friday breakouts. NOW is up to the old high. WDAY surged Thursday and Friday to near the old closing highs. COUP recovered to another new high. TWLO at a new closing high.

    Drugs/Biotech/Healthcare: After a Thursday dip, a good recovery. PTCT, ARNA rebounded Friday off near support. PCRX surged Friday. TNDM still solid.

    Social: SNAP enjoyed a strong week, testing a bit Friday. TWTR surged back through the 50 day MA's Friday on strong volume. MTCH still looks good for a new buy if it can hold one of these moves. FB finally got some snap Friday, making it to the bottom of the wedge after that sharp, anti-trust related Monday selloff.

    MISC: MNST broke out Friday from a cup w/handle. We watched it, thought about putting it on Thursday night, didn't. Great. On a test Monday . . . V and MA surged upside to new highs. VRSN new highs again. TREX looks possible for a new buy. ZEN, SHOP both surged nicely; a dip early week could set up some new buys.


    Stats: +263.28 points (+1.02%) to close at 25983.04

    Stats: +126.55 points (+1.66%) to close at 7742.10
    Volume: 2.064B (-3.05%)

    Up Volume: 1.63B (+440M)
    Down Volume: 497.16M (-480.52M)

    A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.93 to 1
    Previous Session: Decliners led 1.26 to 1

    New Highs: 152 (+71)
    New Lows: 111 (-31)

    Stats: +29.85 points (+1.05%) to close at 2873.44
    NYSE Volume: 727.973M (-7.82%)

    Up Volume: 474.4M (-15.68M)
    Down Volume: 227.323M (-62.964M)

    A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.83 to 1
    Previous Session: Advancers led 1.37 to 1

    New Highs: 292 (+98)
    New Lows: 46 (-56)


    VIX: 16.30; +0.37
    VXN: 19.93; -0.39
    VXO: 17.39; +0.40

    Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; -0.06

    Bulls and Bears:

    One of the most spectacular moves in recent memory. Bulls dropped over 6 points while bears jumped 1.2 points. Of course, those more bearish moves pushed stocks the opposite direction

    Indicator level: Fell from yellow to green, indicating the approach toward extremes did not make it and the pressure was released with the Friday rush higher in the stock indices.

    Bulls: 42.7 versus 49.0 versus

    Bears: 18.5 versus 17.3

    Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.



    Threat level: Red-ish. 3 month/10 year spread inverts a third time. 5 year, and 2 year are below the 3 month treasury. Third 10 year/3 month inversion this year. The positive: the 2 year/10 year is not inverted.

    The 3 month yield versus the 10 year: Spread rose 1BP to -19BP. -26BP was the high water mark on this particular move.

    The 2 year versus the 10 year: Spread fell 3BP to 23BP. Made it to 26BP. Still healing itself.

    10 year: 2.084% versus 2.13%

    3 month: 2.277% versus 2.316%
    2 year: 1.851% versus 1.875%

    Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018. 2.6% for quite some time, then yields started higher, first run from November to January, then mid-March.

    The Dollar: There are two schools of thought. First, those who believe a strong dollar is in the interest of the US. Reagan (though not all of his advisors) and Clinton were strong dollar Presidents. Second, there are those who believe a strong dollar prevents the US from selling US goods abroad. The Bushes (1 and 2) and Obama were in this category. The thing is, the US is always its economic strength peak when its consumers are consuming, and that is when there is a strong economy and a strong dollar: they consume both US and foreign goods. History shows this again and again, and thus it is worth watching the dollar as a gauge of how the US economy is performing.

    EUR/USD: 1.13326 versus 1.12776. Euro screamed upside Monday, Thursday, and Friday, breaking through the 200 day SMA on the Friday close. That is the first close over the 200 day MA since January, indeed, the first time it moved over that level since January.

    Historical: Back into the 6-month range formed after the euro sold off from the early 2018 peaks after a week below it.

    USD/JPY: 108.18 versus 108.372. The dollar moved higher to the 10 day EMA on the week, then reversed hard downside Friday. Looks as if it failed at the 10 day EMA again.

    Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018 then tumbled to 107 in early January 2019. 114.51 is the recent high from October 2018.

    Oil: 53.99, +2.31. After another week of selling, oil jumped higher Friday. Still in the selloff.

    Gold: 1346.10, +12.50. Continued the surge up to the February high. If all is well, why is gold surging? Economic data weaker? Fed going to cut rates? Both are valid.


    A sharp price rebound with weaker internals than the sharp selling into Monday. Friday the rebound accelerated, again in price terms, as the weaker jobs data (aka prompting a nearer Fed rate cut) and the Administration forgoing Mexican tariffs. After all, jobs are lagging indicators, and if they are slowing then the economy overall is already significantly slower.

    As noted earlier, that means this week is another important one. The indices broke support, a break that hit a crescendo with the Monday reported anti-trust moves against FAANG stocks. From there a relief move after the sentiment was about as negative as it gets. The indices bounced on lower volume, mediocre internals, and just a handful of leaders. The indices moved back above the neckline in the head and shoulders patterns but closed the week at resistance. After a week of releasing the negative emotions we will see what is left in the tank, how much Fed-fuel as it were.

    To us it certainly looks like a prime spot to roll back over. I know, that goes against the hope in the populace in general, but it is what the patterns suggest. Again, the Fed can change all of that, but it would have to come out with more: last week the move was ginned up with Powell's comments and the solidifying of the view a rate cut is coming next and coming relatively soon. Will more Fed speakers hit the microphones to drive home the point? Will the Fed convene and emergency meeting and cut rates? With the market surging last week? Not counting on it.

    The point: the market surely surged back upside last week, but that was with the 'good' news of weaker economics and Fed-speak that convinced the markets the Fed was more than ready to cut rates if the economics indicated it was necessary. What more is going to drive stocks this week?

    Well, we will see. If the bids return, we have some good positions working and will be ready with more to add. The market has not taken down all leadership groups and they could put up some more breakouts. Even if there is an early dip this week some leaders could be put into buy positions.

    If there is reversal action at this resistance, however, we won't be slow to get out of upside that starts struggling and put on some more downside. Will be ready with those as well - the market is downside bias after all, even with the past week's surge.

    Watch the reversal, however. Sure it appears the bias remains low and the direction of least resistance is down. But how far? SP500 at 2800, a key level? NASDAQ 7650, another key level? A drop to that level that holds suggests even more upside recovery from some inverted head and shoulders patterns. Thus, on an early drop this week, watch 2800 on SP500 and 7650 on NASDAQ. If they hold we will be ready to transition to the upside with more gusto. After all, the Fed is behind the market now, right?

    Have a great weekend!

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