| To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (75330) | 4/8/2017 11:10:43 AM | | From: Donald Wennerstrom | | | | This is the weekly update of the SOXM stocks and major indices from the first of the year to Fridays closing prices in actual and percent terms in table and chart formats.
The semi bottom line numbers are all up over 10 percent and the major indices are up nicely in the single digits.
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| To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (75332) | 4/8/2017 11:38:09 PM | | From: Sam | | | | I am not going to claim that I actually understand a fair part of this article, but it sounds interesting. And I wish I did understand it and its implications. It sounds like it is heralding (yet another) revolution in semiconductors.
Alphabet’s Google Boasts of Smoking Intel, Nvidia Chips (Update)
By Tiernan Ray
April 6, 2017, 2:24 P.M. ET[Updates with details from Google's paper.]
blogs.barrons.com
A year and a half ago, we ran a cover story in Barron’s print magazine, titled “ Watch Out Intel, Here Comes Facebook,” the premise of which was that as Moore’s Law ceases to deliver exactly as expected, there is a risk to traditional chip vendors from new kinds of chip efforts, including, potentially, chips developed by the large cloud computing providers such as Alphabet’s ( GOOGL) Google unit, and Facebook.
Turns out, Google had already had a chip running in its data centers at the time of our writing, although the company declined to comment for our article. Its work on a chip was about the worst-kept secret in Silicon Valley, even if no one knew all the details of the part.
Flash forward, and Google today is presenting a paper at a technical conference about how its chip, the “Tensor Processing Unit,” or TPU, first announced in May of last year, has been 15 to 30 times faster than today’s “contemporary server-class CPUs and GPUs,” by which it means the chips from Intel ( INTC) and Nvidia ( NVDA).
Rick Merritt with EE Times had a nice summary yesterday.
As the abstract of the paper, by David Patterson, a professor of computer architecture at U.C. Berkeley, states it, there’s a direct link between the “end” of Moore’s Law and custom hardware, as we said in the cover story: “With the ending of Moore’s Law, many computer architects believe that major improvements in cost-energy-performance must now come from domain-specific hardware.”
I interviewed Patterson for the Barron’s cover story. He declined to say anything about the year he spent at Google, which obviously contributed to this custom chip. But among the things Patterson was willing to tell me was that the old rule of, say, 50% jumps in performance with each new process technology node in microprocessors had slowed to more like 20%, and that going forward, instead of constantly smaller transistors and more CPU “cores,” “It will take domain-specific processors.”
“Do just one thing really well,” Patterson told me. “Different designs on the chip for different things.”
What does this mean? It means that Intel’s efforts in its data center division, where it has dominated server computing, are at risk from continued efforts by Google, Facebook ( FB), and others to design processor tuned to their own needs. It also means that despite how great Nvidia ( NVDA) is doing in GPUs for machine learning, they face some of this same threat. So does Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD).
Those interested in digging further may want to look at “ RISC V,” the other project that Patterson is involved with. It makes it easier than ever for a small team to develop an instruction-set architecture tuned to tasks.
Update: As some have asked why Google’s comparison is not to the latest and greatest Nvidia or Intel chips, there’s a partial explanation in the paper.
On page 13, the authors note that the test results were performed in 2015 and were against what was “contemporary” from the chip makers at that time.
However, they also imply that with a newer TPU, they could achieve meaningful improvement over a newer part from either vendor:
Fallacy: CPU and GPU results would be comparable to the TPU if we used them more efficiently or compared to newer versions.
We originally had 8-bit results for just one DNN on the CPU, due to the significant work to use AVX2 integer support efficiently. The benefit was ~3.5X. It was less confusing (and space) to present all CPU results in floating point, rather than having one exception, with its own roofline. If all DNNs had similar speedup, performance/Watt ratio would drop from 41-83X to 12-24X. The new 16-nm, 1.5GHz, 250W P40 datacenter GPU can perform 47 Tera 8-bit ops/sec, but was unavailable in early 2015, so isn’t contemporary with our three platforms. We also can’t know the fraction of P40 peak delivered within our rigid time bounds. If we compared newer chips, Section 7 shows that we could triple performance of the 28-nm, 0.7GHz, 40W TPU just by using the K80’s GDDR5 memory (at a cost of an additional 10W).
In the section 7 referenced, on page 12 of the paper, Patterson and colleagues describe improvements to the TPU that they say would make their chip more formidable, though critics can argue this is still not an actual comparison to current Nvidia or Intel chips:
Replacing just the DDR3 Weight Memory with the equivalent GDDR5 memory requires doubling the number of memory channels to four. This improvement would expand die size by about 10%. However, higher memory bandwidth reduces pressure on the Unified Buffer, so reducing the Unified Buffer to 14 MiB could gain back 10% in area. GDDR5 would also increase the TPU system power budget from 861 Watts to about 900 Watts, as there are 4 TPUs per server. Figure 9 above shows the relative total-performance/Watt/die of TPU’ leaps to 31X – 86X over Haswell and 25X – 41X over the K80. The incremental metric soars to an amazing 69X – 196X over Haswell and 42X – 68X over the K80.
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| To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (75330) | 4/9/2017 6:24:45 PM | | From: John Pitera | | | | Hi Donald.....
The SOX index..... and NVDA....... The SOX index has not had a check back to trend of 150 dma or 200 dma in 10 months.... there has been only 1 instance where the SOX has gone over 12 months without a checkback to 150 dma since the index has been founded as Carter Worth describes...
video.cnbc.com
the call volume in NVDA has expanded 25% list past week. is it vulnerable to a pullback to the 200 dma at 82 ... probably
SMH since inception
video.cnbc.com
Carter and the other options panelist commented that NVDA has all the look and feel of a topping formation..... where we see a pullback to the 200 dma or so
John |
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| To: John Pitera who wrote (75335) | 4/9/2017 7:53:34 PM | | From: Donald Wennerstrom | | | | No question, NVDA has been in "nosebleed" territory for some time until lately(and still there really). The stock has had an unbelievable run in 2016 gaining over 200%. Only AMD in the SOXM did somewhat better as shown in the table and chart. The last 3 months has shown a downtrend that could play out over the next few weeks. Just have to wait and see what happens.
As your chart shows, the SOX is "rockin". It is struggling a little at the 1000 area, but who knows, it may have more "room to run".
Message 30912863 |
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| To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (75336) | 4/9/2017 9:14:41 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | From Briefing.com: 4:11 pm Closing Market Summary: Range-Bound Week Ends on Flat Note (:WRAPX) :There was a lot to talk about on Friday, but the market was not sure what to make of it all, as stocks slipped out of the gate, but spent the day in a slow climb to end little changed. The S&P 500 shed 0.1%, ending the week lower by 0.3%.
Overnight, the U.S. Navy launched 59 Tomahawk missiles at the Shayrat base in Syria, which was reportedly the origin of a chemical attack that took place on Tuesday. Most U.S. allies spoke in favor of the strikes while Russia, China, and Iran voiced their displeasure with the action. The storyline is likely to continue into next week, considering Syrian fighter jets were taking off from the Shayrat base by the end of the day, according to the Syrian observatory for human rights.
The news of missile strikes weighed on equity futures, but a swift rebound took place in time for the release of the Employment Situation report for March. The report disappointed, showing the addition of just 98,000 nonfarm payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 180,000). However, the reaction in the market was muted.
The S&P 500 navigated a 13-point range, closing near the middle amid gains in five out of eleven sectors. Industrials (+0.1%) spent the day in the green thanks to broad strength among defense contractors like General Dynamics (GD 188.04, +1.74), Lockheed Martin (LMT 270.24, +3.13), and Raytheon (RTN 152.96, +2.21). The three names advanced between 0.9% and 1.5% while the broader sector slipped from its high due to losses in transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average shed 0.3%, ending the week lower by 0.1%.
Looking past industrials, the remaining gains were confined to countercyclical sectors. Consumer staples (+0.3%), real estate (+0.2%), and telecom services (+0.2%) displayed strength throughout the day while health care (+0.2%) found buying interest in afternoon action.
On the downside, the energy sector (-0.4%) was among the laggards even though crude oil jumped 1.0% to $52.25/bbl. Another cyclical group-financials (-0.3%)-also struggled to keep pace with the market as flattening in the yield curve weighed on bank stocks. The financial sector lost 1.0% for the week, narrowing its 2017 gain to 1.1%.
Treasuries spiked to highs immediately after the release of the jobs report, but reversed in short order and continued sliding into the close. The 2-yr yield (1.27%) and the 10-yr yield (2.37%) jumped three basis points apiece while the long bond resisted the pressure. The 30-yr yield increased one basis point to 3.00%.
Investor participation was a bit below average as 935 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data included Employment Situation report, Wholesale Inventories, and Consumer Credit:
March nonfarm payrolls increased by 98,000 (Briefing.com consensus 180,000) and March private sector payrolls increased by 89,000 (Briefing.com consensus 175,000) - The key takeaway from the report is that it spoke to the ongoing disconnect between the hard data and the soft data and it will challenge -- or should challenge -- the stock market's economic growth assumptions
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% due to a higher change in workers being employed (+472,000) as the labor force participation rate held steady at 63.0%
- March average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) after increasing an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.2%) in February
- The average workweek in March was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4), versus a downwardly revised 34.3 hours (from 34.4) in February
The key takeaway from the report is that it spoke to the ongoing disconnect between the hard data and the soft data and it will challenge -- or should challenge -- the stock market's economic growth assumptions The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% due to a higher change in workers being employed (+472,000) as the labor force participation rate held steady at 63.0% March average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) after increasing an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.2%) in February The average workweek in March was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4), versus a downwardly revised 34.3 hours (from 34.4) in February Wholesale inventories increased 0.4% month-over-month in February, as expected, versus a 0.2% decline in January. Wholesale sales for February increased 0.6% on the heels of an upwardly revised 0.3 increase (from -0.1%) for January. - The inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.28 in February but down from 1.36 in the same period a year ago.
The inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.28 in February but down from 1.36 in the same period a year ago. Total outstanding consumer credit increased by $15.20 billion in February (Briefing.com consensus $14.00 billion) after increasing an upwardly revised $10.90 billion (from $8.80 billion) in January. Investors will not receive any economic data on Monday.
Nasdaq Composite +9.2% YTD
S&P 500 +5.2% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.5% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.5% YTD
Week in Review: Which Way Next?
The stock market saw limited movement during the past week, leaving the S&P 500 just below its closing level from last Friday. The benchmark index bounced around a 34-point range before locking in a modest weekly loss (-0.3%) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (unch) outperformed.
Geopolitical developments were in focus from the jump. On Monday, President Donald Trump was quoted as saying he is ready to act alone on North Korea if China does not change the current situation on the Korean peninsula. The comments were made just days before Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to President Trump's resort in Florida and ahead of a joint military exercise held by South Korea, the United States, and Japan. North Korea was back in the headlines on Wednesday when it conducted another missile test.
The geopolitical conversation did not end there. On Friday morning, participants learned that the U.S. Navy conducted an overnight strike against the Shayrat airbase in Syria, which was deemed responsible for a chemical attack that was reportedly conducted on Tuesday. The action was supported by several U.S. partners while Russia suspended its information sharing agreement with the U.S. that was put into effect when Russia launched an air campaign in Syria in 2015.
In addition to the geopolitical developments, participants received the latest Employment Situation report, which was a disappointment. Only 98,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in March, which was a far cry from the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 180,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and February earnings growth was revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%.
The report spoke to the ongoing disconnect between the hard data and the soft data and it should challenge the stock market's economic growth assumptions. The growth assumptions may also be put to a test by policy actions from the Federal Reserve, considering the FOMC Minutes that were released on Wednesday revealed a discussion about a reduction to the Fed's balance sheet in the near term.
As for rate hike expectations, the fed funds futures market does not expect a rate hike to be announced in May (4.3%), but expectations for a June hike have firmed a little, with the corresponding probability rising to 70.6% from last week's 62.5%.
Sneaking into the red in the final moments of action on Friday, the major averages ended the week with losses all under 1%. That being said, today's session closed with the S&P 500 as the worst performer, shedding 1.95 points (-0.08%) to 2355.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average for its part lost 6.85 points (-0.03%) to 20656.10, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.14 (-0.02%) to 5877.81. This week's moves take the three major averages to +5.2%, +4.5% and +9.2% YTD, respectively.
Today's economic data included March nonfarm payrolls increased by 98,000 and March private sector payrolls increased by 89,000. Additionally, wholesale inventories increased 0.4% month-over-month in February, as expected, versus a 0.2% decline in January. Wholesale sales for February increased 0.6% on the heels of an upwardly revised 0.3 increase (from -0.1%) for January. Lastly, total outstanding consumer credit increased by $15.2 billion in February after increasing an upwardly revised $10.9 billion (from $8.8 billion) in January.
Despite carrying gains for almost the entirety of the session, the Technology (XLK 53.06, -0.03 -0.06%) space succumbed to last minute selling pressure. Component Frontier Communications (FTR 2.06, -0.04 -1.90%) was weaker today on no specific news. The US Telecom space as a whole outperformed today IYZ +0.33% followed by XLP +0.27%, XLV +0.18%, XLRE +0.13%, XLI +0.11%, XLB -0.09%, XLY -0.30%, XLE -0.38%, XLF -0.42%, XLU -0.43%.
In the S&P 500 Information Technology (900.93, -0.61 -0.07%) space, trading ended modestly lower. Components WU -1.17%, AKAM -1.11%, HPQ -1.08%, FFIV -0.92%, ADS -0.92%, EBAY -0.73%, CRM -0.73%, NTAP -0.61%, NVDA -0.43% ended Friday lower, pressured by the broader sector.
Other notable news items among sector components:
Cloud software developer Okta (OKTA 23.68, +6.68 +39.29%) debuted on the floor of the NASDAQ today; shares opened for trading at $23.56 after pricing its 11 million share IPO at $17 per share last night.
Alphabet A's (GOOGL 842.10, -2.99 -0.35%) YouTube confirmed it has expanded partner program safeguards to protect creators.
GoPro (GPRO 8.55, +0.04 +0.47%) upsized an offering by $25 million and priced $175 million of 3.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2022.
Moneygram's (MGI 16.29, -0.04 -0.24%) Board sent a letter to employees, stating its commitment to the merger agreement with Ant Financial.
Airmedia (AMCN 3.03 +0.05 +1.68%) disclosed the establishment of Unicom AirMedia jointly with China
Unicom (CHU 14.09, +0.64 +4.76%) and Chengdu Haite Kairong Aeronautical.
Analyst actions:
TWLO was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan,
LOGM was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen,
SYNA was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham;
ANET was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Instinet,
MMS was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity;
EQIX, CONE, DFT, QTS all initiated with Outperform ratings at Macquarie,
EPAM was initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse,
NSIT was initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley & Co.,
CYBE was initiated with a Buy at Craig Hallum |
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| To: Gottfried who wrote (75334) | 4/9/2017 9:31:06 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | 61% Downside Volume on the NYSE - 50% Downside Volume on the NASDAQ:
online.wsj.com
Friday, April 07, 2017
Notice to readers: As of 3/3/11, Closing ARMS Index (TRIN) calculation is based on composite data. Click here for historical data prior to 3/3/11.
| NYSE | Latest close | Previous close | Week ago | | Issues traded | 3,084 | 3,093 | 3,109 | | Advances | 1,398 | 2,246 | 1,771 | | Declines | 1,559 | 716 | 1,208 | | Unchanged | 127 | 131 | 130 | | New highs | 72 | 72 | 90 | | New lows | 11 | 24 | 6 | | Adv. volume* | 274,306,694 | 565,331,799 | 474,019,373 | | Decl. volume* | 461,501,029 | 217,852,758 | 492,739,316 | | Total volume* | 752,378,975 | 807,736,657 | 982,208,472 | | Closing tick | +23 | +48 | +694 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 1.46 | 1.14 | 1.43 | | Block trades* | 6,168 | 6,558 | 7,038 | | Adv. volume | 1,116,162,794 | 2,276,284,532 | 1,647,966,775 | | Decl. volume | 1,814,401,636 | 825,892,576 | 1,608,699,298 | | Total volume | 2,995,113,905 | 3,182,035,558 | 3,310,633,680 | | Nasdaq | Latest close | Previous close | Week ago | | Issues traded | 2,970 | 2,984 | 3,000 | | Advances | 1,372 | 1,932 | 1,536 | | Declines | 1,412 | 886 | 1,297 | | Unchanged | 186 | 166 | 167 | | New highs | 58 | 43 | 119 | | New lows | 41 | 65 | 23 | | Closing tick | +193 | -90 | +191 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 1.07 | 1.35 | 1.02 | | Block trades | 7,076 | 8,488 | 9,494 | | Adv. volume | 759,814,645 | 1,081,393,334 | 991,601,920 | | Decl. volume | 833,571,379 | 668,725,458 | 852,950,113 | | Total volume | 1,656,443,775 | 1,828,226,841 | 1,874,727,635 | | NYSE MKT | Latest close | Previous close | Week ago | | Issues traded | 328 | 336 | 341 | | Advances | 159 | 195 | 186 | | Declines | 149 | 122 | 138 | | Unchanged | 20 | 19 | 17 | | New highs | 1 | 2 | 10 | | New lows | 6 | 6 | 3 | | Adv. volume* | 5,364,756 | 5,733,875 | 7,646,265 | | Decl. volume* | 6,424,362 | 3,534,688 | 3,237,051 | | Total volume* | 12,291,935 | 9,498,359 | 11,196,947 | | Closing tick | +61 | +12 | +19 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.56 | | Block trades* | 156 | 136 | 186 | | Adv. volume | 44,938,633 | 46,355,366 | 69,126,589 | | Decl. volume | 55,060,782 | 36,750,165 | 28,728,075 | | Total volume | 103,781,792 | 85,063,755 | 98,673,004 | | NYSE Arca | Latest close | Previous close | Week ago | | Issues traded | 1,309 | 1,316 | 1,331 | | Advances | 537 | 799 | 692 | | Declines | 727 | 470 | 614 | | Unchanged | 45 | 47 | 25 | | New highs | 32 | 20 | 54 | | New lows | 4 | 3 | 12 | | Adv. volume* | 94,184,193 | 144,907,051 | 120,062,207 | | Decl. volume* | 163,602,043 | 88,603,785 | 141,175,616 | | Total volume* | 261,494,367 | 243,448,073 | 263,112,811 | | Closing tick | -66 | +68 | -44 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 1.24 | 1.07 | 1.26 | | Block trades* | 1,331 | 1,144 | 1,496 | | Adv. volume | 402,791,424 | 593,386,983 | 507,057,848 | | Decl. volume | 675,498,248 | 374,957,800 | 568,957,357 | | Total volume | 1,108,009,402 | 1,012,790,759 | 1,089,292,062 |
*Primary market NYSE, NYSE MKT or NYSE Arca only. †Compares the ratio of advancing to declining issues with the ratio of volume of shares rising and falling. Arms Index or TRIN = (advancing issues / declining issues) / (composite volume of advancing issues / composite volume of declining issues.) Generally, an Arms of less than 1.00 indicates buying demand; above 1.00 indicates selling pressure. |
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| To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (75336) | 4/9/2017 9:36:13 PM | | From: Return to Sender | | | | InvestmentHouse - US Bombs, Jobs Report Bombs (Weekend Newsletter)
investmenthouse.com
- US bombs, Jobs Report bombs, stock market hangs in its trends.
- SP500, DJ30, SOX testing 50 day EMA, NASDAQ holds its trend, while
RUTX/SP400 try to return to more bullish looks.
- Jobs report weak and weather is blamed as retail and construction drop.
- Steel stocks show signs of returning to the upside as did retail before
them.
- Market still sets up new patterns and they are breaking higher as well.
Friday you had your choice for breakfast, 59 Tomahawk missiles that bombed
Syria or a Jobs Report that bombed itself. Neither were good market
scenarios. Futures were lower as you would expect, but not horrid.
Overnight when news of the bombing broke, stock futures dove into the abyss,
more or less. They quickly recovered, however. It took a crappy jobs
report to send them back down ahead of the open. From there, however, a
steady recovery into early afternoon. That even took the market positive --
before it gave up the recovery and all but RUTX and SOX closed flat.
SP500 -1.95, -0.08%
NASDAQ -1.14, -0.02%
DJ30 -6.85%, -0.03%
SP400 -0.10%
RUTX 0.01%
SOX 0.47%
VOLUME: NYSE -6%, NASDAQ -10%
A/D: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ slightly negative breadth.
All in all, considering the news, this was not bad action. Reason to sell
but no sellers. Meaning? SP500 and DJ30 continued holding support of the
50 day MA. NASDAQ is holding its position near the top of its range, using
the 20 day EMA as support. SOX did a good job of testing the 50 day MA late
week and bouncing.
The two black sheep, SP400 and RUTX, are attempting to rejoin the flock.
SP400 midcaps are in something of a 4+ month head and shoulders, but the
past 6 weeks look as if they are putting in an inverted head and shoulders.
RUTX is similar, though not quite as elegant perhaps as SP400.
Mind you Friday was no great shakes, but it avoided a selloff when it would
appear the market could have found plenty of reason to sell.
Jobs Report
Q1 ended with weak jobs, particularly from retail that saw another loss,
dropping 30K jobs. So much for the 'predictive' powers of the ADP report.
And it was supposedly redesigned a couple of years ago to more closely track
the BLS number. Sounds as if another iteration is needed.
Non-Farm Payrolls: 98K versus 175K expected versus 219K prior (from 235K)
Unemployment 4.5% versus 4.7% expected and 4.7% February
Hourly Wages: 0.2% versus 0.3% expected versus 0.3% February (from 0.2%)
Year/year: 2.7% versus 2.6%
Workweek: 34.3 versus 34.4 expected versus 34.3 prior (from 34.4)
Participation rate: 63.0% versus 63.0% February. 94.213M working aged
people are still outside the working class. Impressive number of
non-working working aged people. Retirees? Some brush off the number
saying they are just baby boomers. But with so many older people joining
the workforce the past 8 years to make ends meet there are many younger
workers who are out of the workforce, opting to draw upon the various
programs available to nonworkers versus take on one of the menial jobs this
economy is good at producing. Why have the hassle of a job you are
overqualified for when you can play video games and stay on social media all
day and get paid to do it? I know of people who are doing this and have
been doing this for quite some time. The old adage is as true as it ever
was: if you pay someone not to work, unless the options for working are VERY
good, the person won't work. We make it very easy for people to choose not
to work.
Where the jobs are and are not:
Retail: -30K, another sharp decline
Professional/Business services: +56K
Healthcare: +14K
Mining: +11K
Manufacturing: +11K (26K prior month)
Construction: +6K (down from 59K, 46K Feb and Jan)
Most are saying, given the construction numbers, that weather knocked down
the number. Plausible explanation, for the very weak report, but there is
no question the jobs numbers remain, despite Zandi's commentary that the
market is roaring, are not that powerful.
Interestingly, last week Trump penned an order sharply limiting the use (and
abuse) of H1-b visas. Tech companies, the ones screaming the loudest about
not enough qualified labor, have used the program to bring in tech workers
(exempted from any restrictions) and REPLACE US-born workers. Trump removed
that exemption for tech, requiring the people to meet the requirements for
all other areas. Now the tech titans will scream all the more. Hey, it
takes a lot of cheap labor to make your billions. Hmmm, WHERE in US history
have we seen imported free or low-cost labor used to prop up the wealthy
class? I believe that was pre-civil war . . .
THE MARKET
CHARTS
All of the large cap indices held the same relative position. It was the
SP400 and RUTX that may be altering their patterns in a more upside
direction, but at this point they are still not there. You have to keep an
open mind when looking at chart patterns. They do not always speak to you,
at least clearly, and in those situations you have to be patient and let
them work through the patterns, keeping an eye on how leaders are
performing.
SP400: Peaked to start March and has since worked in a range of lower highs
and lower lows, but as noted earlier, has the possibility of a 6 week
inverted head and shoulders setting up. Possibility. It has to show it.
SP500, DJ30: Still holding over the 50 day MA's in their 3 week tight
lateral ranges, holding that important support level.
NASDAQ: Just off the all-time highs bumped in March and last week.
Trending higher, still has tech, software, and chip support.
SOX: This is a promising result for the entire market. SOX trended up the
20 day EMA after bouncing off the 50 day EMA in December. It went ahead and
made the 50 day MA test, getting it out of the way, somewhat clearing the
decks for a new move higher. As with SP500, DJ30, a test of an important
level.
RUTX: You can trace out a potential inverted head and shoulders the past 5
weeks somewhat similar to SP400 pattern. A bit rougher but the same idea,
and if SP400 uses it to break higher, the odds are RUTX would follow.
LEADERSHIP
Recently the market showed new life in retail and oil. Some others are
attempting to join the continuing group of leaders.
Metals: Yes some of them are back. AKS, ZEUS, STLD are very interesting.
Semiconductors: Keep pulling winners out of the hat. QRVO broke higher
Friday. SWKS as well. SIMO still looks very good as does AMKR, BRKS, PLAB,
MU.
Retail: Some are taking a breather after a great move, others still look
good. PIR broke higher Friday on good volume. WSM is taking a breather as
is LL after blistering break higher.
Oil: Not a grand week, but working on the move. APC still setting up the
inverted head and shoulders. APA started back up last week. SWN still
looks very strong to move higher. HAL is even putting in something of a
bottom at the 200 day SMA.
Biotechs/Drugs: Some fell out of patterns but many did not. CNAT is
screaming upside again. INVA is setting up for another move higher as is
TTPH.
China: Some of these stocks are coming around again, e.g. CTRP, VIPS.
Financial: Noncommittal, trying to ascertain what the Fed comments re the
balance sheet reduction mean for rates. BAC, JPM, KEY look less than great.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -6.85 points (-0.03%) to close at 20656.1
Nasdaq
Stats: -1.14 points (-0.02%) to close at 5877.81
Volume: 1.656B (-9.4%)
Up Volume: 784.91M (-305.09M)
Down Volume: 852.69M (+179.8M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.02 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.14 to 1
New Highs: 66 (+18)
New Lows: 41 (-24)
S&P
Stats: -1.95 points (-0.08%) to close at 2355.54
NYSE Volume: 752.7M (-5.59%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.12 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.14 to 1
New Highs: 72 (-20)
New Lows: 11 (-23)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.87; +0.48
VXN: 13.49; +0.76
VXO: 11.66; +0.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.05
Bulls and Bears: Bulls jumped back up to the higher end of the range after
a week of market doubt. When the market did not plunge farther off that
nasty Tuesday break lower a couple of weeks back, confidence stabilized.
Still cannot forget the 7 weeks over 60%, however, and that is still lurking
out there and is historically a market top indicator, just not a timing
indicator. Don't forget those 60+ readings in the equation.
Bulls: 55.8 versus 49.5. After a panic week, bulls rebound.
Bears: 18.3 versus 18.1. The bear rose as well but that means they were
more bearish, moving the opposite direction in terms of the view of the
market.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 55.8 versus 49.5
49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 18.3 versus 18.1
18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus
17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4
versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.37% versus 2.34%. Double bottom, inverted head and
shoulders, whatever, bonds look as if they want to break higher again near
term.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.34%
versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus
2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus 2.41%
versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus
2.502% versus 2.602 versus 2.617% versus 2.58% versus 2.60% versus 2.55%
versus 2.51% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.46% versus 2.260% versus
2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.43% versus 2.42%
versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43% versus 2.41% versus
2.398% versus 2.340%
EUR/USD: 1.05906 versus 1.0645. Euro breaking lower from the lateral
consolidation at the 50 day MA.
Historical: 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450
USD/JPY: 111.096 versus 110.85. Little double bottom at the 200 day SMA.
Historical: 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus 111.386 versus
111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus 111.242 versus
111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289 versus 112.707 versus 113.349 versus
113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus 114.807 versus 115.259 versus
114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus 114.042 versus 114.169 versus
113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus 112.169 versus 112.745 versus
113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus 113.356 versus 113.880 versus
114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus 113.265 versus 113.401 versus
112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815
Oil: 52.24, +0.54. Broke through the 50 day SMA and is trying to get back
to the 55ish level that has acted as resistance.
Gold: 1257.30, +4.00. Surged through the 200 day SMA Friday, but could not
hold that move. Reminiscent of late February when it tested the 200 day but
could not make the break.
MONDAY
US carrier battlegroup is steaming to North Korea, Russian warships steaming
to Syria, and who knows what more will transpire ahead of Monday. Similar
news Friday did not sink stocks. Didn't help them, but the sellers were not
selling.
SP500, DJ30, SOX are in good 50 day MA tests. NASDAQ is holding the 20 day
EMA. Could it be that SP400 and RUTX are forming up near term upside
patterns?
Some metals stocks, namely steel, are setting up new patterns, getting money
thrown at them. Retail, chips, drugs/biotechs still look solid. Oil is
trying to follow oil prices higher; perhaps those stocks will move if oil
breaks 55/bbl.
The point: there is leadership and some nascent new leadership trying to
form up. The indices are holding support, and those that broke just might
try to put in an upside pattern. As improbable as it would appear given the
Fed tightening and wanting to dump its balance sheet, the lack of tax and
healthcare reform, weaker Q1 economic activity, and a lot more international
intrigue, stocks are not selling and indeed appear as if they could move
higher. Again.
The Jobs Report stunk it up, again not acting as a catalyst up or down. The
market has not surged after those reports, but it has shown a slow build
upside with the leaders making the moves.
With that background we will continue looking at solid upside plays in solid
sectors. We have some really good ones to go for Monday, and if the
patterns in the market hold, there will be more of those as we have a pretty
good list from this weekend. Again, as improbable as the continuing move
may seem, it continues not to crack and to produce good upside patterns, and
importantly, breakouts.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5877.81
Resistance:
5912
5928 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 50 day SMA at 5815
The 50 day EMA at 5795
The 2016 trendline at 5723
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
The 200 day SMA at 5395
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2355.54
Resistance:
2390 is the March interim recovery high
2401 is the all-time high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2371
The 50 day SMA at 2347
The 50 day EMA at 2341
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2222
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 20,656.10
Resistance:
21,100 is the March interim recovery high
21,169 is the all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,604
The 50 day EMA at 20,535
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,192
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high. |
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| To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (75336) | 4/9/2017 9:58:57 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | It is really quite amazing.
The dot.com bomb crashed as everyone's future vision realized the ubiquity of the internet would after all take time.
Still to this day 50% of the used car dealers walk a customer if they don't get their undocumented price (dream/opinion).
Those customers go to Autotrader.com or Cars.com and find 50 vehicles with less miles and better condition below the ignorant dealers "vision of the vehicle's value" all within a 5 hour drive at most.
The great equalizer = the internet!
It is those dealers who wonder where all the traffic HAS GONE?
Yet those of us who have experienced the last 16-17 years see Amazon.com shuttering thousands of retail outlets and see UPS trucks and FedEx trucks everywhere - even in the deep rural markets I live in - in Wisconsin.
It is relentless and inevitable.
Yet we should be surprised to see Sox or SMH hit new highs as 0ver half of the enabling tech companies have either run competitors broke and/or merged to be relentlessly more efficient - with maintained margins.
It is the greatest source of continuous growth our generation / life time will see.
So it will be!!
BOB
In my eyes it not questioned - it is expected -WITH ONE CAVEAT - IATL = IT ALWAYS TAKES LONGER.
A multi bagger in tech is more than due !!
Bob |
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