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   Microcap & Penny StocksMSFT - How low can it go


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To: sandeep who started this subject10/20/2000 2:35:17 AM
From: Andy Thomas
   of 39
 
from the clowns thread:
-Crash had a nice take on the 'Softee earnings party today:
In any case, near as I can tell (and these numbers
aren’t exact since there’s no way to know how exactly
everything has been recategorized) sequentially, their Windows
Platforms division saw a 21 percent decline in revenue, and their
Consumer division saw a 7 percent decline in revenue. If this is
"good" news, somebody beat with a bat and break my legs
cause I’d love to have a "good" day? On the back of that, MSFT
gained 20 percent today. Can we say, "expiration is
tomorrow"???

Beat me with a bat and break my legs? He captures the essence of being a bear in a manufactured bull market...

-

andy

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To: sandeep who started this subject10/20/2000 3:43:24 AM
From: Andy Thomas
   of 39
 
Message 14623018

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To: Andy Thomas who wrote (27)10/20/2000 10:35:58 AM
From: sandeep
   of 39
 
Whatever this person or you say, MSFT and INTC can return all the investors' money in less than 30 years with almost no growth. This is a compelling play to me. You may choose to not have an optimistic view of the world, I do.

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To: Andy Thomas who wrote (28)10/20/2000 10:45:54 AM
From: sandeep
   of 39
 
His numbers are completely wrong. Since he doesn't want to bother doing any research of read any news releases, he will always be ignorant. For his education, ask him to look at www.microsoft.com and go through investor relations etc to find the numbers he wants.

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To: sandeep who wrote (30)10/23/2000 6:42:35 PM
From: Andy Thomas
   of 39
 
--MSFT and INTC can return all the investors' money in less than 30 years with almost no growth. --

what is the price/book?

how does that money grow? is that more like,

'assuming the stock market bubble continues to grow, msft and intc can return all the investors' money in less than 30 years with almost no growth...'

andy

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To: sandeep who wrote (31)10/23/2000 6:43:09 PM
From: Andy Thomas
   of 39
 
no, you're wrong and i'm right about this...

andy

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To: Andy Thomas who wrote (32)10/24/2000 3:12:09 PM
From: sandeep
   of 39
 
MSFT earned ~$1.8/share this year. Assuming almost no growth, it should return it in 30 years or less along with $8/stock that they have today.

I am sure intc's numbers are similar.

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To: sandeep who wrote (30)10/24/2000 3:22:31 PM
From: Dave
   of 39
 
"MSFT... can return all the investors' money in less than 30 years with almost no growth"

They could. But they won't. Instead, they will squander it on "strategic investments" in innovative new technologies which they will then destroy to prevent them from threatening their entrenched Windows/Office monopoly. And they will waste it trying to forcibly push losers like WinCE, MSN, and Dot-Net in order to illegally leverage their Windows/Office monopoly.

In contrast, AAPL could return investor's money in a long weekend by liquidating their short-term investments and auctioning off their intellectual properties. But they won't. Like MSFT, they are on a Holy Mission, and they won't rest until they have conquered or been defeated.

"You may choose to not have an optimistic view of the world, I do."

Predicting MSFT's demise IS optimistic.

Dave

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To: Dave who wrote (35)10/24/2000 4:29:43 PM
From: sandeep
   of 39
 
Dave, we will see. I think I will live for another 30. How about you ? If so, let's put a friendly wager in. My claim is that if you add all the earnings from now for the next 30 years, it will be more than the current stock price for both msft and intc. Are you willing to take the other side ?

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To: sandeep who wrote (36)10/24/2000 5:52:23 PM
From: Dave
   of 39
 
"My claim is that if you add all the earnings from now for the next 30 years, it will be more than the current stock price for both msft and intc."

I don't dispute that their quarterly reports will claim that much in earnings. However, much of those earnings will continue to mysteriously disappear into black holes that don't show up on the quarterly report, like that billion dollars that they invisibly lost last quarter on those naked MSFT puts, and the billion or two that they lost on their AT&T "strategic investment." With the kind of accounting shenanigans that MSFT (and to be fair, everybody else) engages in, it is very difficult to determine how much they are really earning without going in with a team of auditors.

Last quarter, MSFT claimed an increase in profit by including certain investment gains (while artificially excluding other investment losses). That's great, until the market finally really goes south, and there are no investment gains. Then you will see either (1) declining MSFT profits or, more likely, (2) changes in MSFT's accounting methods.

And anyway, THIRTY YEARS? I'm not going to wait thirty years just to get my principal back. If I'm going to let money sit in a stock for thirty years, I expect some gains, at least equivalent to what I would get in treasury bonds. That means that, assuming treasury yields of, say, 7%, I expect to get back at least (1.07 ^ 30) times principal, or about 7.6x.

Dave

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