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   Strategies & Market Trendsahhaha's ahs

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To: Ahda who wrote (24688)8/24/2017 5:06:57 PM
From: Elsewhere
of 24758
Thank you for the feedback, Ahda.

ECB actions have not been influenced much by the Brexit. What counts most for the ECB is the economic development in Italy, France and Spain, the EU heavyweights. - GB has been a net payer to the EU, other countries will have to step up to substitute its role.

I really recommend all readers of this forum to start "playing" with crypto currencies, especially bitcoin. It's not that difficult. Here is a link to what is recommending itself:
Getting started

1. Create a "wallet", a personal bitcoin account on a PC or smartphone. There are many options. I have been using Bitcoin Core which loads the complete blockchain (around 150 GByte, it takes days) and Mycelium, an Android wallet. The most secure option are "cold wallets" (devices similar to USB sticks) but for small amounts they are overkill.

2. Set up an account at a bitcoin exchange, e.g. at Coinbase. It may take days to weeks currently, though, because all exchanges are overwhelmed with new customers. Coinbase has added one million customers this May alone.
There are also services to purchase bitcoins directly, like

I'd start with the purchase of a small bitcoin amount for, let's say, $50-$100. There's no need to purchase a whole bitcoin, any fraction will do, $100 is about 0.025 bitcoin.

3. Transfer the acquired bitcoin (fraction) from the exchange to the personal wallet. A certain amount (up to about 1%) will be deducted as a network fee.

4. Keep the bitcoin amount on the wallet or spend it. Here's a list of dozens of merchants accepting bitcoin:

There is a learning curve but it's worth it. Just imagine there could be a bank holiday one day, for some days or weeks. Traditional banks would be closed. The bitcoin network is available 24/7, no bank holiday there. It helps to be already acquainted with the system in such a situation.

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To: Elsewhere who wrote (24689)8/24/2017 7:28:59 PM
From: Ahda
of 24758
First I appreciate the information you are sharing with me.

In regards to the bit coin if all transactions are made net to net where are taxes collected from if there is no earth address involved other than a ship to.

Suppose you go to a store that requires physical currency and does not recognize the bit which
is on your computer as currency then what?

Then I think in terms of gold and a gold coin can be the same problem but It has to be exchanged for smaller currency and if I tried that at Mac no hope for a hamburger that day.

Currency belonging to Nations represents a Country so you exchange one currency for another tho the exchange rate well as solvency of nations. However by means of bail outs bonds and what have you nation is the asset base of the currency but what is the base of the bit?

Perhaps the answer lies in the fact the bit is controlled and paper is not To me it seems and I could be wrong alternative of gold is tangible but where is the tangible in the bit?

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To: Ahda who wrote (24690)8/24/2017 8:18:49 PM
From: Elsewhere
of 24758
In regards to the bit coin if all transactions are made net to net where are taxes collected from if there is no earth address involved other than a ship to.

A bitcoin holder is responsible for adhering to the tax laws of his country and the country where he is located. The regulations vary widely. An introduction:
Tax compliance

Suppose you go to a store that requires physical currency and does not recognize the bit which is on your computer as currency then what?

Then acquire a bitcoin debit card, fill it with bitcoin and pay with dollars. Here is a list:
How To Get A Bitcoin Debit Card

At most places where you currently use a Visa, Mastercard, Amex debit or credit card you can alternatively use a bitcoin debit card.

Currency belonging to Nations represents a Country so you exchange one currency for another tho the exchange rate differs

I can underline "the exchange rate differs". The bitcoin exchange rate fluctuates wildly.

However by means of bail outs bonds and what have you nation is the asset base of the currency but what is the base of the bit?

The "base of the bit" is the computation time required to "find" a bitcoin. The bitcoin system is set up such that each coin must fit a certain formula. It is easy to describe what the target is but it takes time to compute a way to get there. Millions of computers worldwide are churning numbers to find bitcoins and other coins. The total power consumption of this computation process exceeds the power consumption of smaller countries. Your own bitcoin possession is "etched in stone" in the blockchain / public ledger. Everybody is able to verify that a certain subset of all bitcoins is linked to your public bitcoin address. At the same time this verification does not offer any hint how to hijack your coins. Also there is no connection between your public bitcoin address and your personal identity or your physical location. For changing the assignment of your bitcoins the private part of your bitcoin key is necessary. This private key is kept secretly in the wallet, either electronically or also on paper. The security of your coins is linked to your private key so it should be guarded like the code for a safe.

To me it seems and I could be wrong alternative of gold is tangible but where is the tangible in the bit?

The security of the bitcoin key system has survived the cracking attempts of a generation of mathematicians and hords of programmers and hackers. The only remote chance of a breaking may be given with a new generation of computing devices, quantum computers, but there are already plans how to deal with this challenge once they become feasible.

Let me get back to your perceptive question...

... nation is the asset base of the currency but what is the base of the bit?

... and respond to it from a different angle:

This is a fascinating aspect of bitcoin: it does not belong to any single nation or any private entity and it can not be controlled by any single person, group or nation. It is a distributed system. If it is suppressed in one place it can still be used in other places. Just as the original internet was designed to create a communication system which is able to withstand attacks so is bitcoin creating a currency able to withstand attacks. The blockchain creates a total transparency of all transactions in the system in a way which has never been available before. This has the potential to transcend traditional nations and create a new worldwide economy. Cyprus, Venezuela and other places are proofs how bitcoin enables citizens to survive the financial repression of an authoritarian government or of a collapsing economy.

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From: sixty2nds9/8/2017 1:01:12 PM
of 24758

Vanguard’s chief economist says artificial intelligence, automation stymieing market forecasters

Published: Sept 8, 2017 12:19 p.m. ET


Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, argues that a burgeoning technological revolution is a big risk factor for the market

Bloomberg News/Landov



For years, the U.S. stock market has been moving on issues that would be familiar to investors of nearly any era: questions over monetary policy, uncertainty stemming from the political and economic environments, concerns over valuation and growth, jobs reports and corporate earnings. However those catalysts, both good and bad, aren’t addressing the most important factor facing the economy, one that will fundamentally change the way all people and businesses go about their businesses.

That view is according to Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, who argued that the factors moving markets on a day-to-day basis, or even a month-to-month, or year-to-year basis, were minor compared with a trend that may be less visible when looking at data or balance sheets.

“The forces that trump all others are human capital and technology, man and machine, and we’re at an inflection point with them, in the midst of a structural change that will impact the labor market globally,” he said. “The trend that will define our lives is how work changes for all of us. I can’t think of a more seminal issue that will face the economy in the years ahead.”

Changes in technology, primarily trends involving automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence, were behind what Davis dubbed “the three big paradoxes” in the market that have been stymieing economists. The paradoxes are an environment marked by low inflation, but nearly full employment; low growth, but high valuations; and high political uncertainty, both in the U.S. and abroad, but also “an eerie calm over the market” in the form of low volatility.

Davis suggested these arose from an economic variation of Moore’s Law, which argues that computing power will double in its ability every couple of years. “Technology lowers the cost to produce everything, and tech itself gets cheaper every year,” he said. “The more we use technology, the harder it will be to have 2% inflation.” He estimated technology subtracted 50 basis points a year from inflation, in addition to having an impact on economic growth, wages, and standards of living.

“It would be a mistake for any of us to be complacent about any of this,” he said. “Tech is always moving faster and getting smarter. Artificial intelligence and computer programs are doing more things and, more importantly, they’re learning. Work has always been an arms race between education and technology, but the pace of change, and the scale of the change, are different this time.”


Many have sounded the alarm about automation and the growing ability of machine to perform the jobs that had previously been manual labor. Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, said this factor was the one that most concerned him about the economy, calling artificial intelligence “a deeply challenging thing,” adding, “people who are growing up today don’t know if they’re preparing for the right career, and challenges associated with that could lead to secular stagnation.”

More detail: Thjs is what scares Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller about the economy

The impact of automation and AI could be massive, particularly as new technologies—such as driverless cars and “bot” programs that can mimic human speech patterns—mature and disrupt ever-larger segments of the economy. According to recent research, every industrial robot takes up to six jobs, with some 6 million jobs at risk of being lost to automation over the coming decade. Last year, the White House’s annual economic report of the president (under President Barack Obama) forecast an 83% chance that automation will take a job with an hourly wage below $20, a 31% chance automation will take a job with an hourly wage between $20 and $40, and just a 4% chance automation will take a job with an hourly wage above $40.

Vanguard’s Davis cited work from Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, professors at Oxford University who suggested that as early as 2022, 47% of U.S. jobs—which would translate to about 70 million people—could be automated. Among other major economies, 69% of jobs in India and 77% of jobs in China could face the same fate. While Davis said he didn’t think the impact would be that severe, he used it as an example of how negative forecasts had become. “Imagine a world where three-fourths of Chinese works are out of a job,” he said. “If that’s the future, who cares who the next Fed chair is? I don’t know who will be buying ETFs in that world. Maybe the rich machines.”

He forecast four future “paradoxes,” all related to technology revolutions: the economy will see more automation, but higher labor shortages at the same time; those labor shortages will exist alongside low inflation; that low inflation will persist even as real interest rates rise (he said this was the forecast he was least confident about); and that even with higher real interest rates, equity market returns will be lower. “No doubt there is higher risk in the equity market right now than the bond market,” he said.

Currently, Vanguard’s outlook for future returns is at its lowest level in 10 years, since the financial crisis was accelerating. (The outlook isn’t bearish, nor does it call for losses; it simply anticipates returns that are below historical norms.)

Despite the scorched-earth nature of these forecasts, Davis suggested there was room for optimism that humans wouldn’t become obsolete, even as the work they do changes dramatically.

This view comes from distinguishing between the job that a person does, and all the individual tasks that make up that job. He listed three types of task: basic, such as recording information or moving objects; repetitive, including assembling items and processing information; and advanced tasks, which include problem solving, strategizing, and developing teams. Based on an analysis of labor market data, Davis estimated that over 1,000 occupations, jobs require an average of 41 tasks.

“Jobs don’t get automated away, tasks do,” he said. “The jobs most at risk [of being fully automated] are the ones focused on a few repetitive tasks.” In comparison, jobs focused on advanced tasks -- what he called “uniquely human tasks”--“can’t be automated away, even by a really smart computer.”

Most workers will have experienced these changes already, as what was formerly busywork has gotten automated by word processing, email, or other technologies that have been incorporated into one’s daily life. Davis estimated that there has been “a 50% change in what we do day-to-day since 2000, and it would be wrong to think that some of these changes haven’t complemented workers, in addition to disrupting them.” While every job title has seen changes, there aren’t easy correlations between the degree to which one has changed, and how high-paying that job is. As an example, Davis noted that doctors from a century ago were limited in the medicines they could prescribe or the treatments they could use. Now, their job is very different, but there is still demand for it.

Future job skillsSo, what skills will future job seekers need?

What automation will change, in Davis’s view, is the number of advanced tasks that jobs require, relative to basic or repetitive ones. “For the first time ever, we spend 50% of our time on uniquely human work, compared with just 30% in 2000,” he said, estimating that this could reach 80% in the future. Jobs that are weighted toward basic and repetitive tasks could be lost—Davis noted there are 400 occupation titles recognized by the U.S. government that no longer exist—but “the job losses will be dwarfed by demand for new jobs in uniquely human tasks.” The U.S., he added, “is in the best possible seat for this,” noting that while China and India had massive workforces, their economies were more heavily weighted toward basic and repetitive tasks.

“I don’t care what my kids major in, but I want them to learn three skills: creative intelligence, technological acumen, and emotional intelligence,” he said. “Thinking creatively is the top requirement for a ton of jobs today, everything from chefs to engineers. Social skills -- things involving perception and empathy—will arguably be the most important skill in the future, and it can’t be automated away.”

“A great teacher,” he added, “doesn’t just have a collection of facts they can recite; they can inspire. That’s something a computer will never be able to do.”

More from MarketWatch

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To: sixty2nds who wrote (24692)9/9/2017 4:14:48 PM
From: Drygulch Dan
of 24758
I'd like a machine that could prune my vines for less than $0.25 a vine. A nickel would be better. And another implement to desucker the vine below the cordons. Need to beat the eventual $15/hour labor rate.

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From: sixty2nds9/11/2017 11:56:45 AM
of 24758

Expensive stocks frustrate another value-investing legend, report says

Published: Sept 11, 2017 11:33 a.m. ET

Seth Klarman’s Baupost to return some cash to investors: Bloomberg

Getty Images
Seth Klarman



Apparently Seth Klarman can be added to the list of high-profile value investors frustrated by expensive stocks and a lack of investment opportunities.

Bloomberg reported late Friday that Klarman’s $30 billion Baupost Group plans to return an unspecified amount of capital to investors by year-end due to a lack of opportunities. A Baupost spokeswoman declined to comment on the report.

Bloomberg said Baupost also returned capital to investors in 2010 and 2013 for similar reasons.

Klarman might not be a household name, but he is widely regarded as one of the greatest value investors of all time. Since its founding in 1983, Boston-based Baupost Group produced net gains after fees of $25.3 billion through the end of 2016, ranking it fourth on the list of the world’s top money managers compiled by London-based LCH Investments. A first edition copy of Klarman’s 1991 book, “Margin of Safety,” is available for $860 on eBay EBAY, +0.90%

Value investors seek stocks that they believe are undervalued by the market. A more than eight-year bull market has made stocks expense on a number of historical measures, leaving fewer bargains to be found.

A popular fund that tracks value, the Russell 2000 Value Index RUJ, +1.20% is down 2.1% so far in 2017, compared with a nearly 11% gain for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.95% and a similar year-to-date advance for the Russell 2000 Growth Index RUO, +0.80% The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.09% maintains a rise of about 11.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.02% is on track for a return of more than 19% over the same period.

So-called growth investing, focuses on buying stocks that have been rising consistently, has been one of the styles often pit against value and one that has outperformed amid a record run for equities.

Read: A major value fund mirrors a major growth one more than you may expect

The slump in value has led to frustration for a number of investors who adhere to that investment style. Activist fund ValueAct Capital Management planned in May to return $1.25 billion to investors due to worries valuations were too expensive, Bloomberg said.

And while Warren Buffett no longer follows what could be called a strictly value approach, the billionaire is still seen as a champion of the investing style. He’s seen his Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, +1.19% BRK.B, +1.31% pile up nearly $100 billion in cash amid a dearth of opportunities.

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From: frankw19009/12/2017 2:20:40 AM
of 24758
I've just finished catching up the last few months' posts. Glad to see Grace and the rest of you are doing well.

I've been utterly fascinated by the politics of the last year and a half, which I think has been the most interesting political period since the Berlin wall came down.

I've come across a couple of things which might interest some of you.

One is the work of Steve Keen which reforms the standard macro economic model used by the majority (+95%) of economists. He has a lot, really a lot, of his lectures posted at YouTube. I think our late host, who I miss sorely, would approve of him.

Keen's just published a nice little book, "Can We Avoid Another Financial Crisis?" (Answer:Yes we can but we won't.)

Of the myriad YT lectures this one is pretty representative although very general. If you watch, do it full screen and be prepared to stop so you can look at the pix.

From the POV of investment strategy, I suppose one important thing that comes apparent is the importance of private non financial company debt of businesses and individuals, its proportion of GDP, and rate of growth positive and negative. It can't do exact prediction of tops and bottoms or when, but it does give an objective indicator of how risky the territory is.

If you're in politics it's good because it would give you realistic economic visibility.

The Economic Crisis And The Crisis In Economics

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From: frankw19009/12/2017 3:43:02 AM
of 24758
The other thing I have to mention, because of my family and personal history is the publication of Dale Bredesen's book, The End of Alzheimer's: The First Program to Prevent and Reverse Cognitive Decline.

Bredesen is one of the world's foremost researchers on Alzheimer's and has had a great deal of success with his protocol.

Alzheimer's comes about due to metabolic dysfunctions leading to some of the brain's housekeeping functions running out of control.

As you'd expect processes underlying these functions are outrageously complex and there is no one single silver bullet treatment.

Bredesen and his colleagues developed a protocol of dietary and lifestyle changes which restore brain's normal metabolic functions.

It's worth buying the book because there is more than one sort of AD depending on genetic inheritance or sometimes depending on chemical insult. The explanation of these and the general underlying causes of the malfunction is clear.

The explanations of what people need to do with their medical practioner are clear.

If you have concerns about yourself, family member or friend get the book.

Talk by Bredesen

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From: sixty2nds9/26/2017 12:26:16 PM
of 24758

Trump gets kudos from billionaire Sam Zell

Published: Sept 26, 2017 12:01 p.m. ET

‘There’s been very significant change since Trump was elected in November, and change that is positive’

Sam Zell talks Trump.



Donald Trump may be getting an earful about his “take a knee” fixation this week, but at least one billionaire is focusing on the president’s upside.

‘Bluntly, the only way I can square anything is I focus on what gets done, not what’s said. On a measure of what’s gotten done, I believe there’s been very significant change since Trump was elected in November, and change that is positive.’

That’s Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments explaining to CNBC on Tuesday why American corporations is willing to invest money on a longer-term basis now than it was during Obama’s “antibusiness” administration.

Specifically, Zell pointed to deregulation, tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending as strong business tailwinds.

“Just think that all of a sudden there are no industries that are piñata[s] of the president,” Zell said, using Obama’s campaign against fossil fuels as an example.

While he claims to be more optimistic now than he was six months ago, Zell, who chairs five NYSE-listed companies, also says investors need to be selective in this climate because we’re not in a “buy anything” market.

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To: MoneyFriend_2.0 who wrote (19759)10/4/2017 2:19:17 PM
From: mattstat
of 24758
Based on his prior calls, I would be not too worried. He was a walking mistake 6 years ago.

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