| To: B.K.Myers who wrote (3) | 9/2/2000 11:18:55 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Fastest Growing Companies – MSN
This screen is essentially the same Fastest Growing
Companies screen that I ran earlier, but I ran this one
using MNS Money Central Investors Finder:
moneycentral.msn.com
I attempted to create the same criteria that I used in the
earlier screen, but because of difference between the two
screen engines, I had to use some different variables.
The original screen criteria and results can be found at:
Message 14282877
Here are the criteria that I used in the original screen:
6 Month EPS Growth >= 35
6 Month EPS Growth > 1 Year EPS Growth
1 Year EPS Growth > 5 Year EPS Growth
5 Year EPS Growth >= 25
1 Year Revenue Growth > 5 Year Revenue Growth
1 Year Revenue Growth > 10
1 Year EPS Growth >= 1 Year Revenue Growth
Long Term Growth Projection > Previous Long Term Growth Projection
ROE >= 15
Average Relative Quarterly Performance for past 4 Quarters >= 1
On August 27, 2000, the original screen identified these companies:
Symbol Company Name Price ROE Trail P/E EPS Growth (1 Yr.)
SEIC SEI Investments Co 65.50 99.0 55.2 54.8
FWRD Forward Air Corp 43.50 53.1 62.1 67.6
SUNW Sun Microsystems Inc 124.75 41.4 99.0 66.6
PLXS Plexus Corp 142.50 40.6 99.0 60.9
MLT Mitel Corp 23.38 35.3 99.0 55.9
NT Nortel Networks Corp 82.38 20.9 99.0 48.3
AHAA Alpha Industries Corp 40.13 17.6 58.2 90.4
TIF Tiffany & Co 42.06 15.5 28.1 78.4
----------------------------------------------------------
Here are the criteria that I used for MSN Money Central screen:
EPS Growth Qtr Vs Qtr >= 35
EPS Growth Qtr Vs Qtr >= EPS Growth Year Vs Year
EPS Growth Year Vs Year >= 5-Year Earnings Growth
5-Year Earnings Growth >= 25
Rev Growth Year Vs Year >= 5-Year Revenue Growth
Rev Growth Year Vs Year >= 10
EPS Growth Year Vs Year >= Rev Growth Year Vs Year
Earnings Estimate Increased Since <In The Last Year>
Return on Equity >= 15
This criteria differs from the original screen criteria is
the following ways:
 The original screen used 6 Months EPS Growth. I used Qtr
Vs Qtr EPS Growth for this screen.
 I did not use the 1-Year Revenue Growth >= 10, but it was
not needed.
 I used Earnings Estimate Increase instead of the change
in Long Term Growth Projections.
On Friday, September 01, 2000, this gave me the following results:
1-YR 5-Yr 1-Yr 5-Yr
EPS Earning Rev Rev
Symbol Company Name Price ROE P/E EPS Growth Growth Growth Growth
SNDK SanDisk Corporation 83.5 31.2 24.7 0.43 125.4 40.57 81.9 39.57
SIVB Silicon Valley Bancshares 57.63 28.4 15.2 1.23 80.6 33.96 37.2 31.97
CHCS Chico's FAS, Inc. 39 36.8 31.9 0.88 70.3 67.26 45.3 24.79
RCII Rent-A-Center, Inc. 32.94 34.5 12.3 1.74 139.5 30.28 75 71.11
MCRL Micrel, Incorporated 76.44 27.5 128.7 0.41 113.4 39.7 38.9 36.89
CDWC CDW Computer Centers, Inc. 73.5 24.5 51.4 1.11 49.1 41.77 47.7 38.38
TLGD Tollgrade Communications, Inc. 111.19 21.3 80.2 0.89 51.4 30.79 32 26.5
FWRD Forward Air Corporation 45.88 29.1 45.4 0.76 56.9 32.92 31 2.92
TIF Tiffany & Co. 41.63 22.4 35.9 0.98 61.7 29.95 25 14.68
ALTR Altera Corporation 64.81 24.8 84.7 0.54 45.1 28.43 27.9 21.95
KCP Kenneth Cole Productions, Inc. 44.06 25.7 31.4 1.19 52.8 25.37 41.2 25.97
Only two companies from the first screen showed up on this
screen, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) and Tiffany & Co
(TIF). I believe the reason for the difference was mostly
related to changing the 6 Months EPS Growth to a Quarter
vs. Quarter EPS Growth criteria. Using the Earnings
Estimate Increase instead of the Long Term Growth
Projections changes might have also had an effect.
I prefer the 6 Months EPS Growth rate because it covers a
longer period, 6 months as opposed to 3 months. The
Quarter vs. Quarter growth could be distorted by an
unusually poor or good quarter.
Since I was using different screening engines, I was
curious about the consistency of the data. Looking at the
two companies that appeared on both screens, FWRD & TIF;
there are some extreme variances between their numbers.
Obviously these screens are not getting their data from the
same place. Let’s see what I find if I check Silicon
Investors and E*Trade for these values.
Symbol/Criteria Market Player Money Central E*Trade Silicon Investors
FWRD:
Price 43.50 45.88 42.25 42.25
ROE 53.1 29.1 36.16 36.16
P/E 62.1 45.4 45.92 46.23
1-Yr EPS Growth 67.6 56.9 50.33 41.18
TIF:
Price 42.06 41.63 42.31 42.31
ROE 15.5 22.4 23.94 23.94
P/E 28.1 35.9 36.48 36.54
1-Yr EPS Growth 78.4 61.7 60.17 32.96
*NOTE (this data was gathered on different days, up to one
week apart)
At least E*Trade and Silicon Investors agree on the price,
ROE and P/E (accounting for rounding), but look at the
differences in 1-Yr EPS Growth.
Also notice that MSN Money Central and E*Trade report
essentially the same figures for all criteria for TIF but
slightly different ROE and 1-Yr EPS Growth for FWRD. The
figures from Market Player are substantially different from
figures reported from the three other sources.
Obviously the quality of the source of the screen’s data
substantially affects the screen results.
B.K. |
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| To: sbt48 who wrote (43) | 9/2/2000 11:25:27 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Susan,
Thank you for sharing your TA screening sites with us. A lot of people here use TA extensively so I am sure your screen sites are appreciated.
I hope you don’t mind me adding them to the subject topic.
B.K. |
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| To: B.K.Myers who started this subject | 9/4/2000 12:39:59 AM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Appreciated Growth Companies
With all of the interest in TA, I decided to run a
fundamental screen looking for stocks that are performing
well from both a technical and fundamental standpoint. I
figured that these would be good candidates for technical
analysis.
I did this by selecting companies whose price has been
steadily improving for the past year. The stock price had
to increase more in the past 6 months than the previous 6
months and faster in the past quarter than in the previous
quarter. I selected only stocks whose volume for the past
2 weeks was at least 125% of its average annual volume.
I looked for companies that were growing revenues and
earnings faster in the past year than in the past 5 years.
I also only selected companies that have a Return on Equity
of at least 15.
Here are the criteria that I used.
% Price Change Last Year >= 0
% Price Change Last 6 Mos. >= % Price Change Last Year-% Price Change Last 6 Mos.
% Price Change Last Qtr. >= % Price Change Last 6 Mos.-% Price Change Last Qtr.
% Price Change Last Month >= 0
Rev Growth Year vs. Year >= 5-Year Revenue Growth
EPS Growth Year vs. Year >= 5-Year Earnings Growth
EPS Growth YTD vs. YTD >= 0
Return on Equity >= 15
Avg. Daily Vol. Last 2 Weeks >= Avg. Daily Vol. Last Year*1.25
Here are the nine companies identified by this screen.
1-Yr 5-Yr 1-Yr 5-Yr
Symbol Company Name Industry Name Price P/E ROE RevGwth RevGwth EPSGwth EarnGwth
CHCS Chico's FAS, Inc. Apparel Stores 39 31.9 36.8 45.3 24.79 70.3 67.26
TARO Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Drug Manufacturers 18.75 30.6 16.2 25.6 12.25 139.1 16.35
PBT Permian Basin Royalty Trust Diversified Investments 5.44 10.8 825 74.1 5.31 77.9 5.51
EASI Engineered Support Systems Diversified Machinery 20.38 12.8 16.2 70.4 29.71 25.9 24.25
ENGL Engle Homes, Inc. Residential Construction 15.38 4.7 16.2 38.4 27.79 60.9 31.58
DRC Dain Rauscher Corporation Investment Brokerage 80.44 12.9 18.6 23.7 13.52 732.5 4.78
PPL PPL Corporation Electric Utilities 33.5 12 31.3 21.2 12.9 24.8 8.24
NTAI Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. Business Equipment 17.94 7.7 17.9 42.8 5.19 237.1 -2.6
SASOY Sasol Limited Independent Oil & Gas 8.03 11.4 17.5 14.4 1.11 18.8 -5.49
Here is some key fundamental data for these companies that
I retrieved from Silicon Investors.
Symbol P/S ROE ROA Yield AnalRec
CHCS 3.55 40.27 28.81 0 1 (6)
TARO 2.46 18.52 7.70 0 1 (2)
PBT 8.78 964.61 548.3 16 N/A
EASI 0.44 17.08 5.51 0.18 1.33 (5)
ENGL 0.20 17.50 6.53 1.67 1 (1)
DRC 0.95 21.40 3.18 1.1 2 (2)
PPL 0.95 31.10 5.17 3.12 2 (12)
NTAI 1.02 17.09 12.83 1.9 3 (2)
SASOY (no profile available)
AnalRec:
1 = Strong Buy
2 = Buy
3 = Hold
4 = Under perform
5 = Sell
(#) = Number of Analysts
Only a couple of things stand out here. Permian Basin
Royalty Trust (PBT) has a Return on Equity that is in the
stratosphere and a very high yield. Chico's FAS, Inc. and
PPL Corporation have above average ROEs.
All companies seem to be selling at a discount to their
one-year earnings growth. Also notice that Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc. (NTAI) and Sasol Limited (SASOY) both
have negative 5-year earnings growth. NTAI in particular
appears to have turned their fortunes around, but it looks
like analysts have not picked up on the turn around.
The good price performance of these companies seems
justified by their fundamentals.
Now, what do their charts look like?
Chico's FAS, Inc. (CHCS)
bigcharts.com
CHCS has been moving up on strong volume since it broke
through resistance of 25 in early July on heavy volume.
Institutes have been accumulating the stock and now hold
91% of the outstanding shares.
Chico's FAS, Inc. is a specialty retailer of exclusively
designed, private label casual to dressy clothing and
complementary accessories. Concerns about the retail
sector in general could have an adverse affect on CHCS. We
might see a small technical pull back here, but fundamental
and technically, this company looks strong.
Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TARO)
bigcharts.com
TARO shot up 25% in the past week. Stocks that climb more
than 25% in less than two weeks often pull back in a short
time period. Notice the up staircase that has been forming
since May. There hasn’t been a lot of selling since late
May. This is a thinly traded stock and institutions only
hold 8% of the outstanding shares.
TARO manufactures markets and distributes OTC and
prescription pharmaceuticals primarily in the United
States, Canada and Israel, offering topical corticosteroids
and antifungal cream products. They just made two
significant announcements (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/news.gsp?s=TARO)
regarding product approvals and distributor agreements.
These announcements are the probable cause of the stocks
sudden rise. There might be something significant here,
but this is out of my area of expertise.
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)
bigcharts.com
A few words about the company are in order before we
evaluate this chart.
Permian Basin Royalty Trust, an express trust, collects the
income from properties owned by Burlington Resources Oil &
Gas Company, including the Waddell Ranch properties
(containing 344 oil wells, 67 gas wells and 137 net
injection wells) and the Texas Royalty Properties. For the
6 months ended 6/30/00, total revenues totaled $15.4M, up
from $5.7M. Net income totaled $15.2M, up from $5.5M.
Results reflect higher royalty income due to higher
prices.
If you look at the chart, you will notice that it roughly
follows the price of oil and natural gas. Oil prices have
been going up and I have read that they could go as high as
$40 / barrel (extreme estimate). Natural gas prices have
been rising and are predicted to rise significantly more,
especially if we have a cold winter.
The stock has a high yield (15%) and pays a monthlydividend. The astronomical ROE, ROA and relatively
low PE are all very appealing. This looks like a good
candidate for a long position.
Engineered Support Systems, Inc. (EASI)
bigcharts.com
EASI has been in a trading range (11-15) for the past year,
until early August, when it started rising on increasing
volume. EASI rose 40% in a little over two weeks after
announcing outstanding earnings. The stock seems to be
consolidating between 19 and 21 with strong than usual
volume. It could be building a new base and a breakout
above $21 on strong volume would be a buying signal.
Institutions hold 39% of the outstanding shares.
EASI is a designer & manufacturer of military support
equipment and electronics for the U.S. armed forces. EASI
also engineers and manufactures air handling & heat
transfer equipment, material handling equipment and custom
molded plastic products for commercial and industrial
products.
Engle Homes, Inc. (ENGL)
bigcharts.com
ENGL has been trading in a 9 – 10.50 range since February.
Then in early August it broke out on strong volume. The
stock rose 20% the two weeks before earnings were released
and another 20% the two weeks after the earnings
announcement. Institutions were net sellers earlier this
year. That might have changed, they hold 53% of the
outstanding shares.
Engle Homes, Inc. designs, constructs markets and sells
single-family residences, townhomes, patio homes and
condominiums to entry-level and move-up buyers. I would
want to investigate ENGL’s industry and competitors before
making a decision to take a position in ENGL.
Dain Rauscher Corporation
bigcharts.com
DRC has been in an up trend all year. There was a lot of
volatility during April and May as DRC traded between 50
and 70 on heavy volume. In late August it broke out on
heavy volume and is now trading more than 10% higher. DCR
may have run out of steam and could be set for a pull back.
Dain Rauscher Corporation provides investment advice and
services to individual investors in the western U. S. and
investment banking services to corporate and government
clients nationwide. The recent price rise probably has
something to do with the flurry of press releases related
to DRC.
siliconinvestor.com
Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. (NTAI)
bigcharts.com
NTAI has run into strong resistance at $19 (½ point below
52 week high). The recent run up was on increasing volume
but institutional participation was minimal, they only hold
10% of the outstanding shares.
Nam Tai Electronics provides design & manufacturing service
to OEMs of consumer products. Nam Tai's products include
telecommunication products, palm-sized PC's, personal
digital assistants, and others. Sales for the 3 months
ended 3/00 rose 65% to $44.6M. Net income totaled $14.6M,
up from $2.8M. Revenues reflect increased units sold due to
increased market share. Earnings reflect the disposal of
an unprofitable subsidiary.
Sasol Limited (SASOY)
bigcharts.com
SASOY has been in a strong up trend since early August.
The stock is up 30% for the month of August. SASPOY is
currently trading at 8.125 and resistance is at 8.75.
-----------------------
There are some strong stocks in this list, but most look
like they might be reaching their peak. Permian Basin
Royalty Trust however, deserves a closer look.
B.K. |
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| To: B.K.Myers who started this subject | 9/4/2000 5:09:21 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Screening for possible Short Candidates
I modified the screen for Appreciated Growth Companies
(http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14323842)
to locate companies whose price was rising at an
accelerating rate but whose revenue and earnings growth are
slowing. I also removed the Return on Equity and the
positive YTD EPS tests. This query resulted in 11 matches.
I then added one more criteria, that the 5-year estimated
EPS Growth must be less that or equal to the 1 year
estimated EPS Growth. This should select only companies
whose EPS has been slowing and are projected to continue
slowing.
I ran this screen at MSN Money Central
(http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp#Top).
The screen identified 3 potential short candidates.
Selection Criteria:
% Price Change Last Year >= 0
% Price Change Last 6 Mos. >= % Price Change Last Year-% Price Change Last 6 Mos.
% Price Change Last Qtr. >= % Price Change Last 6 Mos.-% Price Change Last Qtr.
% Price Change Last Month >= 0
% Price Change 1 Week >= 0
Avg. Daily Vol. Last 2 Weeks >= Avg. Daily Vol. Last Year*1.25
EPS Growth Year vs. Year <= 5-Year Earnings Growth
EPS Growth Next 5 Yr <= EPS Growth Next Yr
Rev Growth Year vs. Year <= 5-Year Revenue Growth
Results:
1-Yr 5-Yr 1-Yr 1Yr Est 5Yr Est 5-Yr 2 Wk Last Yr
Symbol Company Name Price P/E ROE R-Gwth R-Gwth EPS Gth EPS Gth EPS Gth Ern-Gth Avg Vol Avg Vol Industry Name
TNL Technitrol, Inc. 127 35.6 25.9 18.3 28.26 33 16.4 15 37.05 236,500 104,500 Scientific & Technical Instruments
LI Lilly Industries, Inc. 30.63 22.2 15.7 6 14.76 5.4 13.1 8.5 10.25 101,300 73,100 General Building Materials
PNM Public Service Company of New Mexico 21.38 11.3 8.8 6 8.31 -3.7 9.3 4.5 2.84 257,100 163,100 Diversified Utilities
Fundamental Comparison Analysis:
siliconinvestor.com
I used Quicken’s Evaluator for some of the following analysis:
quicken.com
Symbol P/E P/S P/B P/CF PEG ROE ROA PM CR Yield Rating PrevRate
TNL 35.69 4.03 9.28 33.18 1.73 30.41 17.47 11.3 2.47 0.18 2.00 2.17
LI 22.27 1.05 3.49 177.63 2.02 16.66 5.75 4.70 1.50 1.05 3.33 1.67
PNM 11.36 0.69 0.97 10.49 2.17 8.83 2.97 6.14 1.38 3.66 2.21 2.21
(Rating and PrevRate are from Quicken; all other figures are from Silicon Investors)
Industry Comparisons:
Revenue Growth Rates
1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
TNL 22 15 28 24
Industry 45 -8 -16 -6
LI 7 3 15 14
Industry 10 8 8 12
PNM 14 5 8 3
Industry 26 14 14 9
Return on Equity
1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
TNL 26 23 20 15
Industry 8 6 8 6
LI 16 19 18 17
Industry 21 18 18 14
PNM 9 10 10 8
Industry 11 10 11 11
P/E PEG
TNL 36 1
Industry 103 0.2
LI 22 2.1
Industry 14 0.3
PNM 11 2.5
Industry 17 N/A
All three companies appear to be financially healthy.
Looking at these figures I see that we have three totally different situations.
TNL has an excellent and increasing Return on Equity
compared to its industry, and good Return on Assets, Profit
Margin and Current Ratio. Their industry group has had
negative revenue growth in the past, but had an astounding
45% revenue growth in the past year. TNL is selling at a
low P/E ratio compared to its industry but at a higher
PEG. This is probably due to the negative revenue growth
that the industry has experienced in the past. Notice that
analysts have lowered their outlook for TNL in the past 3
months.
LI is selling at a high P/E and PEG compared to its
industry peers. Their Return on Equity had been in line
with their industry, but they faltered last year. Their
revenue growth had been better than the industry average,
but again, they have been stumbling lately and now lag the
industry. The Price to Cash Flow of 178 is troubling and
should be scrutinized more closely. Analysts have
dramatically increased their outlook for LI in the past 3
months.
PNM is selling at a lower P/E ratio than their industry
peers are but their PEG seems a bit high. Their Return on
Equity has been in line with the industry, but their
revenue growth is severely lagging the industry. Their
P/S, P/B and P/CF all seem reasonable. Their Return on
Assets seems low, but that could be because of the industry
that they are in. Analysts have not changed their outlook
for PNM is the past 3 months.
Looking at company fundamentals:
Technitrol, Inc (TNL)
Technitrol is a worldwide producer of electronic
components, electrical contacts and assemblies and other
precision-engineered parts & materials for manufacturers of
networking, broadband/Internet access, telecommunications &
computer equipment. For the six months ended 6/00, sales
rose 25% to $315.9M. Net income totaled $41.7M, up from
$19M. Revenues reflect higher ECS and MCS unit shipments.
Net income reflects higher margins due to sales mix.
Institutions hold 51% of the outstanding shares but don’t
seem to be net buyers or sellers. TNL recently appointed
two new directors and was a recent S&P Focus Stock of the
Week (http://www.personalwealth.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/SNP?action=gotoDocumentPage&id=2954869&tracking=PWM2954869).
Here is a brief excerpt of what S&P Personal Wealth had to
say about Technitrol:
NEW YORK, Aug. 07 (Standard & Poor's) - Standard & Poor's
expects electrical equipment maker Technitrol Inc (TNL) to
experience an extended period of solid earnings gains. Most
of that growth will likely be derived in Technitrol's
electronic components segment (58% of 1999 sales and 82% of
operating profit), which serves the fast-growing
information and communications industries. The company also
operates an electrical contact products segment (42% of
sales and 18% of profits), which has been encountering more
challenging business conditions. That division recently
initiated realignment steps to maximize market
opportunities and reduce costs.
Analysts have lowered their expectations for TNL over the
past 3 months, but the current consensus is 1.5 (strong
buy). TNL did beat earnings estimate two quarters ago by
39% but by only 8.6% last quarter.
Lilly Industries, Inc (LI)
Lilly Industries and subsidiaries are principally in the
business of formulating, manufacturing and marketing
industrial coatings and specialty chemicals to
manufacturing companies. The Company also sells various
household products. For the 6 months-ended 5/00, revenues
rose 6% to $337.4M. Net income fell 10% to $13.6M. Results
reflect growth in volume sales of wood and powder coatings,
offset by start-up costs associated with increased
capacity.
On June 26, 2000, Lilly Industries, Inc agreed to be
acquired by Valspar Corp for $31.75 a share
(http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/story.gsp?id=667710&s=LI).
The next day the stock increased 135%, going from $14 to
$31. The same day, JP Morgan downgraded LI to Market
Perform with a target price of $20. Currently LI has a
consensus recommendation of 4.33 (under-perform/sell).
The merger was generally well received but still needs FTC
and shareholder approval. Institutions hold 54% of the
outstanding shares but don’t seem to be net buyers or
sellers.
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)
PNM, a public utility company, is primarily engaged in the
generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of
electricity and natural gas within the State of New Mexico.
For the 6 months-ended 6/00, revenues rose 22% to $650.3M.
Net income applicable to Common before accounting change
declined 3% to $39.6M. Revenues benefited from strong
regional wholesale electric prices. Earnings were offset by
a decreased gross margin as a percentage of revenues.
On June 6, 2000, PNM shareholders approve a plan to create
a new holding company with separate subsidiaries for the
company's regulated utility operations and its competitive
power generation and marketing business. On July 18, 2000,
PNM reported record revenues and earnings that beat street
estimates by 7%. Then on August 8, 2000, PNM announced a
plan to buy back $35M in common stock. PNM stock jump up
on both announcements.
Institutions hold 54% of the outstanding shares but don’t
seem to be net buyers or sellers. The current analyst
consensus recommendation is 2.29 (buy).
Reading the Charts:
Technitrol Inc (TNL)
bigcharts.com
etrade.com
TNL has been in an up trend most of the year and made a new
52-week high Friday on strong volume. Volume has also been
increasing since the beginning of the year. TNL seems very
strong with no obvious technical weakness.
Lilly Industries (LI)
bigcharts.com
There is a huge gap between 15 and 30 on this chart.
Obviously this was precipitate by the buy-out offer. If
any problems develop with the buy-out, Lilly could quickly
return to its old level around $15.
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)
bigcharts.com
PNM has been trading down to flat for most of the year.
Then in mid July PNM started a strong up trend. This up
trend was initiated by the record revenues reported on July
18th and was on strong and rising volume. PNM then traded
relatively flat on light volume for next 2-3 weeks.
When PNM announced the stock buy back program on August 8,
the stock spiked up to a new 52-week high on very strong
volume. After reaching $22, the stock has traded flat for
the past 2 weeks on light volume and the recent up trend
seems to have come to a stop.
Conclusion:
When I created this screen, I was looking for companies
that have had an unjustified run up in price recently.
What I found was that the screen also revealed turn around
opportunities (TNL) and special situation opportunities
(LI).
Technitrol, Inc. appears to be a standout in a weak
industry that might be turning around. The industry has a
positive growth rate for the first time in years and with
the high industry P/E ratio, analysts and investors appear
to be expecting better things in the future. TNL simply
looks too strong technically and sound enough fundamentally
to sell short at this time.
Lilly Industries is awaiting approval of its acquisition by
Valspar Corp. The future direction of this stock depends
on the outcome of that acquisition.
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) however does
seem to be a good candidate for potentially taking a short
position in. The recent 37% run up from 16 to 22 seems
excessive when you look at the underlying reasons.
Technically, the stock appears to be weakening as volume
has been decreasing since the recent run up.
B.K. |
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| To: B.K.Myers who started this subject | 9/4/2000 9:42:33 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Market Players screening engine is undergoing a transformation. Some of my earlier screen are no longer functional.
Their new beta site can be found at:
beta.marketplayer.com
I ran a couple of screens and notice that the new site is not fully functional yet. While they are redoing their site, I have been using MSN Money Central Investors Finder:
moneycentral.msn.com
It appears to be a pretty good tool with an impressive array of screen criteria. For example, you can even screen for companies submitting various SEC documents.
So far, I like what I see.
B.K. |
| | Screening for Stocks | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
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| To: B.K.Myers who wrote (48) | 9/6/2000 8:07:42 PM | | From: jfoley | | | | To all,I'm looking for a site that will show stocks that
have a huge volume spike on a stock with preferably
a flat to rising base of price ranges. Am I missing how to do
this on these other sites? Thanks.
John |
| | Screening for Stocks | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: jfoley who wrote (49) | 9/7/2000 11:42:19 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Volume Spike From Price Base
John,
I really like your suggestion. It took me a while to
manipulation the screen criteria to get what you want.
Here are the criteria that ended up using:
Volume > (AvgVol50Da * 2)
Price > 10
AvgPr20Da >= (AvgPr30Da * .99)
AvgPr20Da <= (AvgPr30Da * 1.5)
AvgPr30Da >= (AvgPr50Da * .99)
AvgPr30Da <= (AvgPr50Da * 1.05)
AvgPr20Da >= (AvgPr50Da * .99)
AvgPr20Da <= (AvgPr50Da * 1.1)
AvgVol50Da > 10000
(Price >= (AvgPr20Da * 1.1) OR Price <= (AvgPr20Da * 0.9))
Here are the results of the screen. Lots of interesting
stocks in this list.
Tkr Price AvgPr20Da AvgPr30Da AvgPr50Da Volume AvgVol50Da
ABG 15.38 12.76 12.14 11.88 75,500.00 22,052.00
ANSI 20.69 17.77 16.74 16.71 488,400.00 33,644.00
ARGX 21.38 18.28 18.21 18.10 192,000.00 80,926.00
BOYL 11.00 9.72 9.48 9.40 57,700.00 10,822.00
CDIS 58.81 51.29 49.87 49.70 169,200.00 82,892.00
CEG 43.69 38.48 37.21 35.68 1,523,800.00 441,494.00
CMRC 62.69 53.81 51.06 50.63 17,480,500.00 8,050,612.00
CPTS 10.81 8.23 7.94 7.98 187,600.00 68,260.00
DAKT 15.12 12.41 11.89 11.40 68,100.00 27,944.00
DIGX 68.75 78.15 75.44 75.85 2,615,700.00 1,180,040.00
DISH 50.25 43.57 42.48 40.93 15,198,000.00 3,458,152.00
DSCP 32.81 36.79 36.96 36.91 416,900.00 33,848.00
FLEX 88.25 80.17 78.00 76.69 5,867,200.00 2,877,470.00
FNF 21.81 19.27 18.86 18.66 387,500.00 163,104.00
FSPT 26.75 19.99 19.40 18.71 434,400.00 12,148.00
GSOF 19.75 17.30 17.11 17.05 27,500.00 10,688.00
HF 28.06 25.36 24.98 23.89 575,300.00 158,396.00
HWL 11.88 10.71 10.38 10.01 40,300.00 16,054.00
IMGN 17.56 14.34 13.38 13.29 799,100.00 301,554.00
ITN 14.62 12.88 12.47 12.44 469,500.00 133,354.00
KEY 21.88 19.87 19.41 19.21 2,304,100.00 904,838.00
LM 58.38 52.00 52.31 52.32 766,700.00 320,140.00
LNOP 21.69 15.72 14.35 14.30 1,926,300.00 133,404.00
MBNY 19.38 17.18 17.14 17.11 140,200.00 13,730.00
MDRX 22.38 26.02 24.88 25.01 1,073,700.00 272,892.00
MNY 39.62 35.58 35.41 34.84 377,300.00 176,154.00
MTON 14.88 12.50 11.84 11.91 161,500.00 57,636.00
MT_P 15.25 13.49 13.49 13.35 52,700.00 12,562.00
NANX 17.00 12.40 11.45 11.28 545,900.00 96,556.00
NBL 41.31 36.89 34.80 34.85 931,700.00 459,416.00
NTAI 20.31 17.27 16.55 16.58 222,000.00 43,696.00
OCCF 41.94 30.67 29.80 29.78 468,800.00 71,620.00
OEI 17.50 15.01 14.21 13.75 1,983,700.00 905,502.00
OFCP 24.69 19.04 18.08 17.40 323,400.00 37,836.00
PBKS 15.69 14.22 13.99 13.96 178,900.00 86,972.00
PCU 14.69 13.28 12.73 12.42 49,000.00 23,840.00
SFY 33.94 27.28 25.91 25.14 464,900.00 159,520.00
SKIL 20.19 15.21 14.99 14.99 66,500.00 32,004.00
SONO 25.69 32.74 32.34 30.93 1,394,600.00 158,340.00
THOR 19.62 17.45 17.27 17.20 156,300.00 71,436.00
TPTH 10.62 6.92 6.52 6.30 1,168,900.00 272,230.00
TRN 21.94 19.28 19.15 19.06 609,900.00 194,682.00
TTWO 16.25 12.47 11.62 11.61 1,867,400.00 456,558.00
TUTR 16.75 13.78 13.51 13.46 338,400.00 36,274.00
VETX 14.12 12.20 11.51 11.24 177,500.00 83,154.00
WEDC 16.19 14.53 13.85 13.77 1,585,700.00 269,326.00
WFMI 55.00 47.88 47.02 46.09 2,419,200.00 393,546.00
WIND 47.62 37.63 34.84 34.91 2,790,700.00 894,950.00
I noticed that NTAI appeared on this screen and also
appears on my Appreciated Growth Company screen.
Message 14323842
I really like this screen and will tweak it a little more
and run it a couple of more times, then post my results here.
B.K. |
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| To: B.K.Myers who wrote (50) | 9/9/2000 9:35:13 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Volume Spike From Price Base (2)
I added the Industry Name to the Volume Spike from Price
Base screen. I wanted to see if these increases in volume
were company specific or based across an entire industry.
Here are the results of this screen.
Tkr Price AvgP20D AvgP30D AvgP50D Volume AvgVol50Da IndustryName
ACTM 63.62 49.99 46.21 45.56 2,397,500.00 488,610.00 Electronic Instr. & Controls
ATGI 16.25 13.43 13.19 13.29 263,400.00 59,348.00 Electronic Instr. & Controls
AW 11.12 10.08 10.13 10.13 1,188,700.00 338,538.00 Waste Management Services
BCF 15 12.93 12.67 12.33 536,600.00 49,562.00 Retail (Apparel)
CLTR 30.12 26.8 25.7 24.56 408,300.00 186,572.00 Biotechnology & Drugs
CMRC 71.38 56.11 52.71 51.79 21,194,100.00 8,726,170.00 Software & Programming
CNF 28.38 25.66 25.38 25.36 648,100.00 269,944.00 Trucking
CPTS 11 8.6 8.17 8.13 165,700.00 74,922.00 Medical Equipment & Supplies
DD 40.94 47.19 46.99 46.09 6,718,600.00 3,010,020.00 Chemical Manufacturing
EGN 29.38 25.25 24.36 23.53 162,700.00 66,090.00 Natural Gas Utilities
FDC 41 47.72 47.78 48.16 15,004,200.00 1,821,842.00 Computer Services
FNF 23.81 19.86 19.26 18.87 639,700.00 181,180.00 Insurance (Prop. & Casualty)
FSPT 27.62 20.86 20.02 19.11 41,100.00 14,672.00 S&Ls/Savings Banks
GAJ 20.2 22.91 22.88 22.94 76,200.00 10,166.00 N/A
HWL 12.5 10.98 10.56 10.13 52,800.00 18,320.00 Oil & Gas Operations
KEY 23.25 20.2 19.71 19.35 2,295,000.00 947,836.00 Regional Banks
LAMR 42.02 47.16 47.59 46.57 794,400.00 367,060.00 Advertising
MAPS 44.25 39.37 37.28 37.27 160,400.00 69,372.00 Software & Programming
MARY 21.44 40.68 38.17 38.48 177,000.00 77,730.00 Oil & Gas Operations
MBNY 19.56 17.42 17.3 17.21 186,700.00 19,362.00 Regional Banks
MCN 26.5 23.75 23.04 22.54 1,143,200.00 313,588.00 Natural Gas Utilities
MWH 11.12 8.52 8.48 8.42 53,500.00 22,784.00 Electric Utilities
MXC 20.12 11.73 11.09 11.14 75,100.00 11,670.00 Electronic Instr. & Controls
NASI 24.88 21.94 21.46 21.06 211,100.00 98,302.00 Biotechnology & Drugs
NCC 22.81 20.56 19.88 19.24 2,269,000.00 1,000,174.00 Regional Banks
NDB 27.88 34.93 34.76 34.79 1,499,600.00 170,620.00 Investment Services
NEOL 29.94 22.91 22.77 22.3 96,100.00 32,274.00 Biotechnology & Drugs
NTAI 20.38 17.75 16.89 16.71 230,800.00 49,552.00 Office Equipment
PDG 10.31 9.08 8.9 8.97 2,121,400.00 841,792.00 Gold & Silver
REPT 15.12 13.7 13.34 13.22 164,100.00 43,136.00 Electronic Instr. & Controls
SCMR 116.3 144.56 138.02 134.09 10,058,100.00 4,885,222.00 Communications Equipment
SHX 18.56 13.43 13.26 13.34 2,177,100.00 570,134.00 Textiles - Non Apparel
SNRZ 17 19.34 18.84 18.37 365,100.00 137,924.00 Healthcare Facilities
SPCT 20 16.9 16.04 15.99 598,900.00 88,178.00 Communications Equipment
STE 11.88 9.72 9.44 9.26 934,800.00 248,836.00 Medical Equipment & Supplies
TDY 25.88 20.48 19.76 19.07 1,352,700.00 268,890.00 Business Services
TUTR 18 14.25 13.88 13.66 448,300.00 49,366.00 Printing & Publishing
UIC 11.25 10.11 9.89 9.6 73,900.00 16,010.00 Communications Equipment
VITL 24.62 18.75 18.11 18.27 114,700.00 29,744.00 Medical Equipment & Supplies
VTS 29.19 25.77 24.72 24.44 406,800.00 150,916.00 Oil Well Services & Equipment
WAVX 24.06 19.57 18.96 18.63 1,927,400.00 514,192.00 Computer Peripherals
Of the forty-eight companies that appeared on Wednesday’s
screen, nine (19%) also appeared on today’s screen.
Tkr NEW Price Prev Change %Change Industry Name
CMRC CMRC 71.38 62.69 8.69 13.9% Software & Programming
CPTS CPTS 11.00 10.81 0.19 1.8% Medical Equipment & Supplies
FNF FNF 23.81 21.81 2.00 9.2% Insurance (Prop. & Casualty)
FSPT FSPT 27.62 26.75 0.87 3.3% S&Ls/Savings Banks
HWL HWL 12.50 11.88 0.62 5.2% Oil & Gas Operations
KEY KEY 23.25 21.88 1.37 6.3% Regional Banks
MBNY MBNY 19.56 19.38 0.18 0.9% Regional Banks
NTAI NTAI 20.38 20.31 0.07 0.3% Office Equipment
TUTR TUTR 18.00 16.75 1.25 7.5% Printing & Publishing
Three of the companies that appeared on both days screen
were banks – FSPT, KEY and MBNY. Apparently money has been
flowing into the banking stocks.
So how did the other thirty-nine stocks on Wednesday’s
screen do?
Tkr Price Prev Change % Change
ABG 16.50 15.38 1.12 7.3%
ANSI 19.28 20.69 -1.41 -6.8%
ARGX 20.88 21.38 -0.50 -2.3%
BOYL 10.88 11.00 -0.12 -1.1%
CDIS 58.81 58.81 0.00 0.0%
CEG 46.19 43.69 2.50 5.7%
DAKT 15.44 15.12 0.32 2.1%
DIGX 75.63 68.75 6.88 10.0%
DISH 47.25 50.25 -3.00 -6.0%
DSCP 33.25 32.81 0.44 1.3%
FLEX 87.00 88.25 -1.25 -1.4%
GSOF 20.50 19.75 0.75 3.8%
HF 29.13 28.06 1.07 3.8%
IMGN 21.81 17.56 4.25 24.2%
ITN 15.25 14.62 0.63 4.3%
LM 57.19 58.38 -1.19 -2.0%
LNOP 27.56 21.69 5.87 27.1%
MDRX 22.88 22.38 0.50 2.2%
MNY 40.69 39.62 1.07 2.7%
MTON 14.88 14.88 0.00 0.0%
MT_P 15.25 15.25 0.00 0.0%
NANX 14.75 17.00 -2.25 -13.2%
NBL 40.19 41.31 -1.12 -2.7%
OCCF 43.63 41.94 1.69 4.0%
OEI 16.75 17.50 -0.75 -4.3%
OFCP 25.38 24.69 0.69 2.8%
PBKS 15.75 15.69 0.06 0.4%
PCU 14.75 14.69 0.06 0.4%
SFY 35.31 33.94 1.37 4.0%
SKIL 18.94 20.19 -1.25 -6.2%
SONO 25.94 25.69 0.25 1.0%
THOR 20.75 19.62 1.13 5.8%
TPTH 9.78 10.62 -0.84 -7.9%
TRN 21.84 21.94 -0.10 -0.5%
TTWO 16.00 16.25 -0.25 -1.5%
VETX 13.75 14.12 -0.37 -2.6%
WEDC 15.38 16.19 -0.81 -5.0%
WFMI 51.50 55.00 -3.50 -6.4%
WIND 46.63 47.62 -0.99 -2.1%
I am going to continue to work on this screen. I like the
way that it identifies industries that are attracting
attention. In future postings, I will sort the screen by
industry.
On today’s screen, several industries appear to be
attracting attention:
 Biotechnology & Drugs (CLTR, NASI, NEOL)
 Communications Equipment (SCMR, SPCT, UIC)
 Electronic Instr. & Controls (ACTM, ATGI, MXC, REPT)
 Medical Equipment & Supplies (CPTS, STE, VITL)
 Regional Banks (FSPT, KEY, MBNY, NCC)
 Natural Gas / Oil (EGN, MCN, HWL, MARY, VTS)
B.K. |
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| To: B.K.Myers who wrote (51) | 2/13/2014 5:26:37 PM | | From: Justinfo | | | | Why is this thread dead? I would love some screening idea based on fundamentals.
I have no set screening criteria currently, I just pick stocks that interest me or I am familiar with. But I am hoping to evolve a more analytical screening criteria. |
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| To: Justinfo who wrote (52) | 2/13/2014 10:19:49 PM | | From: B.K.Myers | | | | Hi Justinfo,
I started this thread when I was between employment contracts. When I started a new contract I did not have enough free time to spend posting to the thread.
I never found a good replacement for the marketplayer screening engine. That screeening engine allowed me to compare two variables against each other. For example, marketplayer allowed me to compare the two years earnings growth rate with the 10 years earning growth rate.
I am also rapidly approaching retirement and I am only making minor tweaks to my stock portfolio which consist mainly of large cap established dividend paying stocks. When I do look for new stocks to invest in, I start with the Dividend Aristocrats and pick the ones that I believe will offer the highest income (dividends) in the years / decades to come. Dividend reinvestment has proven to be very rewarding and stress free over the years.
B.K. |
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