| To: tech101 who wrote (305) | 10/13/2001 9:43:48 AM | | From: Michael Olds | | | | Yes, once again this great poker player has pulled off a stunning hand.
I will confess that for months now I have been cursing myself for getting into this too early; but here is the virtue of that...by Monday the bottom will be behind us.
A couple of years before we can sell seems to bother some people, but MEDCO was several years in the growing before it was sold. My thinking is that this is a non issue, that it would not be sold anyway.
Now it seems that the game is to keep the price under $10 until after the new year, but I think that the battering early buyers have taken in the last year is likely to be a source of selling for a good while...there is resistance every $0.20 all the way to $10.00. |
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| To: Michael Olds who wrote (306) | 10/13/2001 11:27:17 AM | | From: Sr K | | | | They paid $5.285 per share and gave 100% protection (and later 80%) above $4.00 per share to 2003. And in doing so used $185 m of cash.
"this great poker player has pulled off a stunning hand"
What does that mean? It looks like there is no resistance on the downside, and at every temporary level, there is resistance 20 to 60 cents higher. WebMD has given up a card (cash) and seems weaker after this deal. |
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| To: Sr K who wrote (308) | 10/13/2001 12:42:55 PM | | From: Michael Olds | | | | David and Sr:
On the 10th in a matter of less than 30 minutes 120,000 shares moved the market from 3.41 to 3.94.
Last night, after hours, about 1000 shares moved the market from 3.45 to 4.00.
I suggest that a buy of 35,000,000 shares at $5.28 was a coup.
I am thinking that the factors keeping down the price at this point are:
1. The overhang. Estimated at the last CC to be something like 70,000,000 shares including the Quintiles shares.
2. The lawsuit between Quintiles and WebMd.
A. Partily for purely psychological reasons..."I'm bigger than you are."
B. Partly for the control of the data
C. Partly for the expense
3. The fact that this is tax selling season in a bad year.
Otherwise the positives are very compelling:
A. First and Formost MW and team with a very strong track record
B. Cash and no debt
C. A good product and a new product which is by all reports going to be well received
D. The turn around to profitability is still on schedule for Q4
And should have been reflected in a higher price than the current one except for the very negative market which is almost as pessimistic here as it was optimistic a couple of years ago.
So I believe the ...what is the term Soros uses? Inflection Point...occured Friday with the announcement of the settlement which removes what looked to me like the worst dark cloud.
And, oh yes, I believe I answered the argument about the guarantees in my previous. I seriously doubt selling this company before it was highly profitable, with the stock price very much higher than this, after at least one split, and at a huge premium would have occured before a few more years in any case. Just my impression of the way MW handled MEDCO, and was handling SNTC before the sale of MEDCO changed the nature of what SNTC was going to be. |
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| To: Michael Olds who wrote (309) | 10/13/2001 3:25:32 PM | | From: Sr K | | | | B. Cash and no debt
C. A good product and a new product which is by all reports going to be well received
How much cash do you estimate they have after paying the $185 m?
Is the wireless product still on track, or which new product are you referring to? |
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| To: Sr K who wrote (310) | 10/13/2001 5:47:28 PM | | From: Michael Olds | | | | Not an exact amount but some where around 500 million (@$2.00/share) if you count what they will likely get for Porex.
Yes, I was speaking about the wireless which has a name now ?Utilia or something like that and is due out any day now. Has been out in beta for a while now and apparently is getting good feedback. |
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| To: Michael Olds who wrote (306) | 10/15/2001 1:54:07 AM | | From: tech101 | | | | WebMD Corp.
Improving Prospect Ahead -- Part 1
Ranking -- Accumulate, Long Term Buy
10 August 2001
David R. Risinger, CFA
First Vice President
Brandon R. Fazio
Industry Analyst
HIGHLIGHT
...
We continue to view WebMD as an interesting small to mid cap value situation. We think there is an opportunity for patient investors since the stock is only trading at an enterprise value multiple of 2x current revenue and its assets have the potential to deliver 20%+ operating margins over the longterm. Other leading healthcare IT companies are trading at 4x revenue.
...
From Marrill Lynch Research Report
The Research Reports are free for 30 days trial at
research.askmerrill.ml.com |
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| To: Michael Olds who wrote (311) | 10/15/2001 2:10:07 PM | | From: tech101 | | | | The settlement with Quintiles is certainly mutual beneficial.
However, the agreement probably means hundred million dollars, even billions of dollars (just look at MEDCO)for WebMD.
The result of this battle and how it was handled also shows that Wygod is indeed the strongman in the tough healthcare business and he knows how to play with it, which gives a lot of confidence to the stock. |
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| To: Keith Fauci who started this subject | 11/2/2001 2:28:00 PM | | From: Michael Olds | | | | WebMD Announces Increase in Stock Repurchase Program
PR NEWSWIRE - November 02, 2001 13:49
ELMWOOD PARK, N.J., Nov 2, 2001 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- WebMD Corporation (Nasdaq: HLTH) today announced that it has utilized all of the $50 million previously authorized for its stock repurchase program and that an additional $50 million has been authorized. Under its stock repurchase program, WebMD may purchase shares of its common stock from time to time in the open market, through block trades or in private transactions, depending on market conditions and other factors. The previously announced repurchase of shares from Quintiles Transnational Corp. was not part of this stock repurchase program. |
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