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   Technology StocksQualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting


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From: hedgefund11/5/2014 4:36:06 PM
4 Recommendations   of 170132
 
There have been so many Q stock price killers/extortionists in the past that I can't recall all of them but I was content to think China might be the last on them. But then I thought about space exploration and it occurred to me that there could be many more out there in the billions of planets we have yet to explore. Yes, there may be an endless number of buying opportunities lurking in outer space. Hf

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (122673)11/5/2014 4:42:21 PM
From: Humble
   of 170132
 
Jim, 1.5b devices is CY15, not FY15, 3G/4G forecast. CY14 is 1.3b devices, maybe it's more safe to say FY15 is 1.4b instead of 1.5b, IMHO.

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To: Humble who wrote (122675)11/5/2014 4:48:49 PM
From: Jim Mullens
   of 170132
 
Humble, re CY not FY

Thanks for the clarification.

Should then say on a CY basis, (If they gave CY) Guidance potentially could be 36% (0.4 /1.1) higher for QTL which represents 65% of EBT

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

FY15 guidance does not include potentially ~ 400 million devices 1.1 /1.5 or ~ 27% shortfall…if I’m reading this correctly.

…………………….FY14 …..FY15

EPS

Non- GAAP………5.27……..5.05- 5.35

GAAP …………….4.65…….4.33- 4.63

I’m assuming CY 15 Guidance potentially could be 36% (0.4 /1.1) higher for QTL which represents 65% of EBT

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To: Humble who wrote (122675)11/5/2014 5:18:12 PM
From: Jim Mullens
1 Recommendation   of 170132
 
Humble, CY guidance ...

OK, now got it. Not providing CY 15 guidance at this time. Please disregard prior 2 posts.

Don't know if FY15 guidance includes or does not include revenues / expenses for China device sales in dispute.

Per Q&A- high end of guidance assumes "some" net income of items in dispute. Very confusing.

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (122677)11/5/2014 5:47:47 PM
From: B. A. Wayne
   of 170132
 
Presumably the lost revenues also impacts licensing and royalty up front payments? Any way Q can book the losses for tax purposes until they are recovered?

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To: B. A. Wayne who wrote (122678)11/5/2014 5:54:01 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
   of 170132
 
"Any way Q can book the losses for tax purposes until they are recovered?" I doubt it. What seems to happen is that Q is now reporting lower QTL revenues and royalties, producing less taxable revenue. At some later point, if Q can collect the revenues owed from either companies not licensed or companies that are licensed but still aren't paying, the additional revenues will simply add to total taxable income. The discrepancy between what Qualcomm estimates as "global" versus "reported" revenues accounts for the wider range of guidance for the coming quarter and fiscal year.

Art

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From: gutboy0911/5/2014 6:22:00 PM
   of 170132
 
And now this too?

Qualcomm also said it faces a new probe by the European Commission about rebates and other financial incentives in the sale of its chips. Another preliminary investigation by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission concerns Qualcomm's licensing business, including a potential breach of licensing terms, the company said.

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (122679)11/5/2014 6:30:02 PM
From: SirWalterRalegh
1 Recommendation   of 170132
 
Art-

Do you worry about the Qualcomm business strategy crumbling in China?

SRW

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (122676)11/5/2014 8:47:56 PM
From: slacker711
1 Recommendation   of 170132
 
I havent listened to the call but Q's presentation lays out the numbers well. Global 3g/4g sales are projected to be $250-$257 billion in FY2014 vs. the $243.6 billion actually reported.

files.shareholder.com

One number that jumps out at me is that they are projecting a 9-10% decline in global ASP in 2015 (no estimate for the collected ASP).

Slacker

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To: slacker711 who wrote (122682)11/5/2014 9:14:04 PM
From: engineer
2 Recommendations   of 170132
 
remember you have to factor that in with caps on the amount royalty is collected upon. So if the ASPs are actually above the cap, it does not affect their revenue at all. Once the ASPs ge below the cap, then it will scale with the ASP decline.

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