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   Technology StocksQualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting


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To: The_Net who wrote (122672)11/5/2014 4:27:09 PM
From: Jim Mullens
2 Recommendations   of 168994
 
the net, re: QCOM reports...............................................................

05 QCOM Misses Q4 EPS by 5 cents

FY15 guidance does not include potentially ~ 400 million devices 1.1 /1.5 or ~ 27% shortfall…if I’m reading this correctly.

…………………….FY14 …..FY15

EPS

Non- GAAP………5.27……..5.05- 5.35

GAAP …………….4.65…….4.33- 4.63



I’m assuming FY 15 Guidance potentially could be 36% (0.4 /1.1) higher for QTL which represents 65% of EBT





Snip>>>>>>>>

We expect calendar year 2014 and 2015 global 3G/4G device shipments to be approximately 1.3 billion and 1.5 billion, respectively. However, our estimate of calendar year 2014 3G/4G device shipments that we currently expect to be reported to us is approximately 1.04 billion to 1.13 billion, which is adjusted for units that we believe may not be reported to us, are in dispute or are currently unlicensed. We have not provided a forecast for calendar year 2015 reported 3G/4G device shipments at this time. We are providing a guidance range for estimated 3G/4G total reported device sales that we currently expect to be reported to us in our fiscal 2015 (for sales by licensees in the September quarter of calendar 2014 through the June quarter of calendar 2015), which does not include sales that we believe may not be reported to us or may be in dispute but does include an estimate for some prior period activity that may be reported to us during fiscal 2015. We are taking steps to address these issues, although the outcome and timing of any resolutions are uncertain.


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From: hedgefund11/5/2014 4:36:06 PM
4 Recommendations   of 168994
 
There have been so many Q stock price killers/extortionists in the past that I can't recall all of them but I was content to think China might be the last on them. But then I thought about space exploration and it occurred to me that there could be many more out there in the billions of planets we have yet to explore. Yes, there may be an endless number of buying opportunities lurking in outer space. Hf

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (122673)11/5/2014 4:42:21 PM
From: Humble
   of 168994
 
Jim, 1.5b devices is CY15, not FY15, 3G/4G forecast. CY14 is 1.3b devices, maybe it's more safe to say FY15 is 1.4b instead of 1.5b, IMHO.

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To: Humble who wrote (122675)11/5/2014 4:48:49 PM
From: Jim Mullens
   of 168994
 
Humble, re CY not FY

Thanks for the clarification.

Should then say on a CY basis, (If they gave CY) Guidance potentially could be 36% (0.4 /1.1) higher for QTL which represents 65% of EBT

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

FY15 guidance does not include potentially ~ 400 million devices 1.1 /1.5 or ~ 27% shortfall…if I’m reading this correctly.

…………………….FY14 …..FY15

EPS

Non- GAAP………5.27……..5.05- 5.35

GAAP …………….4.65…….4.33- 4.63

I’m assuming CY 15 Guidance potentially could be 36% (0.4 /1.1) higher for QTL which represents 65% of EBT

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To: Humble who wrote (122675)11/5/2014 5:18:12 PM
From: Jim Mullens
1 Recommendation   of 168994
 
Humble, CY guidance ...

OK, now got it. Not providing CY 15 guidance at this time. Please disregard prior 2 posts.

Don't know if FY15 guidance includes or does not include revenues / expenses for China device sales in dispute.

Per Q&A- high end of guidance assumes "some" net income of items in dispute. Very confusing.

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (122677)11/5/2014 5:47:47 PM
From: B. A. Wayne
   of 168994
 
Presumably the lost revenues also impacts licensing and royalty up front payments? Any way Q can book the losses for tax purposes until they are recovered?

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To: B. A. Wayne who wrote (122678)11/5/2014 5:54:01 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
   of 168994
 
"Any way Q can book the losses for tax purposes until they are recovered?" I doubt it. What seems to happen is that Q is now reporting lower QTL revenues and royalties, producing less taxable revenue. At some later point, if Q can collect the revenues owed from either companies not licensed or companies that are licensed but still aren't paying, the additional revenues will simply add to total taxable income. The discrepancy between what Qualcomm estimates as "global" versus "reported" revenues accounts for the wider range of guidance for the coming quarter and fiscal year.

Art

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From: gutboy0911/5/2014 6:22:00 PM
   of 168994
 
And now this too?

Qualcomm also said it faces a new probe by the European Commission about rebates and other financial incentives in the sale of its chips. Another preliminary investigation by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission concerns Qualcomm's licensing business, including a potential breach of licensing terms, the company said.

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (122679)11/5/2014 6:30:02 PM
From: SirWalterRalegh
1 Recommendation   of 168994
 
Art-

Do you worry about the Qualcomm business strategy crumbling in China?

SRW

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (122676)11/5/2014 8:47:56 PM
From: slacker711
1 Recommendation   of 168994
 
I havent listened to the call but Q's presentation lays out the numbers well. Global 3g/4g sales are projected to be $250-$257 billion in FY2014 vs. the $243.6 billion actually reported.

files.shareholder.com

One number that jumps out at me is that they are projecting a 9-10% decline in global ASP in 2015 (no estimate for the collected ASP).

Slacker

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