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   Technology StocksAPA OPTICS(APAT)-fiberoptic upstar

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To: Bhag Karamchandani who wrote (17)2/18/2000 8:53:00 AM
From: lofalutin
   of 34
SI: StockTalk: Communications: APA OPTICS(APAT)-fiberoptic upstar
Reply to Post #17 from Bhag Karamchandani at Feb 10 2000 9:31PM

Also, since AVANEX identified their processor' customer does anyone know why APAT hasn't identified theirs??? Any guesses.


Since you asked for a guess, mine is that the customer may have stipulated as part of their sales agreement that APAT not divulge their identity. The computer company I work for has been in a similar position. I'm not sure why the customer company wants such restrictions, but I know they occasionally do.

But... that's only a guess.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (2)2/21/2000 11:27:00 PM
From: jack bittner
   of 34
hello Andy. i admire your posts. i think your opinions are very well grounded in facts and common sense - both as to timing (april 10) and stocks.
i know you don't think much of avnx, because you favor both adct (#1) and apat. you've written that avnx can achieve only 100 Ghz vs apat's 50 (eventual 25), also cost advantages and 1 yr ahead of avnx for 50 Ghz.
i've read that NT can do 160 channels, which'd be just over 18 Ghz. have you read that? is it so?
now comes avnx. geo gilder (i've read some criticism of him lately. for example, that his claims for terayon are extreme) says avanex can do (or will be able to do) 2000 channels. that is 1.5 Ghz!!!
on the one hand, i know photonic engineers who say this is BS, or who can't simply accept it. i've read your brief description of their Interleaver, about separating the odd and even channels and "using the lower density parts" (don't get the part in quotes). i suppose one could cause interference, focus the beam, get dark, light, dark: is that the Interleaver?
But my key question is the apparent contradiction: that we have on one hand this extravagant claim of 1.5 Ghz that no one believes or understands; and on the other hand we know they have the backing of the mayfield fund, sequoia capital and the venture funds of wcom and msft. they are big, tough outfits, and they must have kicked the tires pretty hard before investing millions. they have the work of Simon Cao, formerly etek(38 patents) and CTO John Fee (20 patents), formerly with wcom. they say Mr Cao jointly developed and share ownership of the patent with with Fujitsu.

have you any thoughts on all this - especialy the hard-to-believe claims versus the solid financial backing? do you believe the claims?: the PowerShaper and the PowerMux?
i eagerly await your opinions. jack

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To: jack bittner who wrote (21)2/22/2000 12:45:00 PM
From: Andy Yamaguchi
   of 34
Jack, to answer your question why AVNX has so many backup from big name like mcom, msft..., you know that MCOM and MSFT got their shares just before the IPO at the price around 10. Actually, fiberoptics space is very hot, any fiberoptic company can get big name backup them. I have a friend in Newfocus-a start up fiberoptic company in Silicon Valley. Many VC are coming to their door to invest, but they are saying no-need now. I am not saying AVNX is not good, you know I would also invest my own money if I could get 10 a share for AVNX.

AVNX is still a good company. The issue is the valuation. Their valuation is nearing ETEK's. They only have one product. The method they are using for DWDM is called interleaver method, they do not own the technology. ETEK/JDSU/GLW also are going to have this technology in months. There is no advantage for AVNX. I would definitely sell AVNX and buy ETEK now. ETEK is a much much stronger company comparing to AVNX.

AVNX also has share ownership issue. Insiders own more than 90% of the shares. When the lookup period expires,I expect massive insider sells.

Higher density DWDM is very difficult to do. But as the interleaver and fiber grading technologies advance, we shall see higher density ahead. In addition, I expect system integrators like LU and NT would use signal processing methods to further increase the channel density for DWDM system. Until today, there is almost no signal processing techniques applied for increasing DWDM system density.

Good luck


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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote ()2/22/2000 2:14:00 PM
From: AmericanVoter
   of 34
Andy, I like APAT, but am unable to understand it's price performance... with the FiberOPtics conference coming early March in Baltimore MD, do you think that will create a big price boost for APAT... and I keep wondering, their new DWDM is the one and only so far, so how come the rally ran out of steam from a high of 67 to where we are now... any comments

thanks, best regards

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To: AmericanVoter who wrote (23)2/22/2000 3:09:00 PM
From: Andy Yamaguchi
   of 34
Fiberoptic conf. is coming in next month. There are few market research sessions during the conf.. Many wallstreet analysts would be there. The market is growing so fast. I guess the sector is going to get a boost during /after the conf.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (24)2/28/2000 3:47:00 PM
From: t2
   of 34
Had a nice pop today. Got used to seeing it around 40 recently. Fibre optic announcement had a sustained effect on the stock price (going up of course) on these companies. There are just too many funds/retail investors looking to pick up shares in company that makes announcements in this area.
Saw the same thing happen with COHR and ADCT.
Just waiting for the next company. Any ideas?

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To: t2 who wrote (25)2/29/2000 12:37:00 AM
From: k_maxwell
   of 34

Wireless and fiber optic component makers are going berserk. Ride the wave of the future, my man. Enjoy your posts on the JDSU and G&K threads. Low float microcap wireless or fiber optic is the place to be right now. Check 'em out yo

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To: k_maxwell who wrote (26)2/29/2000 8:31:00 AM
From: t2
   of 34
Thanks for the list of stocks. Going to look into them. It seems the small caps are the best bets. Even if one makes a bad pick (not so great earnings), the takeover possibilities usually support the stock price, at least in the fibre optics sector. Not that familiar with wireless---Nokia and RIMM are holdings but i am just learning the sector.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote ()3/17/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: AmericanVoter
   of 34
no news on APAT...! are we waiting for some announcement or something...? eom

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote ()3/17/2000 11:31:00 AM
From: AmericanVoter
   of 34
APA Optics, Inc. Raises Approximately $5 Million Through Private Financing;


MINNEAPOLIS, Mar 17, 2000 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- APA Optics, Inc. (Nasdaq:
APAT) today reported that it has issued $5 million of 2 percent convertible
preferred stock to three investors.

The Company said the preferred stock will be convertible to shares of the
Company's common stock at $35 per share, subject to certain adjustments. APA
Optics also issued to the investors 50,000 five-year warrants, exercisable for
shares of the Company's common stock at a price of $35 per share.

"This transaction is the first step in our overall strategy to assure we have
the resources necessary to further our goals in becoming a key supplier of DWDM
components in the fast developing fiber optic telecommunications industry," said
Anil K. Jain, chairman and chief executive officer of APA Optics, Inc. "This
capital infusion meets our near-term needs and allows us the flexibility
necessary to implement a longer term financing strategy."

The Company said that proceeds from the offering will be used primarily for the
expansion of production facilities, sales and marketing of its DWDM-based
product line, working capital and general corporate purposes.

Forward-looking statements contained herein are made pursuant to the safe harbor
provisions of the Private Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are
based upon the Company's current expectations and judgments about future
developments in the Company's business. Certain important factors could have a
material impact on the Company's performance, including, without limitation,
delays in or increased costs of production, delays in or lower than anticipated
sales of the Company's new products, and other factors discussed from time to
time in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
The Company undertakes no obligation to update such statements to reflect actual

APA Optics, Inc. manufactures and markets advanced products for the fiber optic
communications, optoelectronics and laser industries, including wavelength
division multiplexed (WDM) components, ultraviolet (UV) detectors, nitride
epitaxial layers and custom optics.

SOURCE APA Optics, Inc.

(C) 2000 PR Newswire. All rights reserved.

CONTACT: Roy Wallace of The Wallace Group, 651-452-9800, for APA Optics,
Inc., or Anil K. Jain of APA Optics, Inc., 612-784-4995

KEYWORD: Minnesota

(Public Company & Wall Street & Business)

A service of the Financial Data Cast Network (FDCN) and
Window On WallStreet Inc.

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