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Technology Stocks APA OPTICS(APAT)-fiberoptic upstar

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To: Im-patient who wrote (18)	2/15/2000 10:39:00 PM
From: steve mamus	of 34

I am not currently holding FIBR - maybe Andy has some thoughts here. I have sold alot of puts on GLW, bought the common of GLW, APAT, AMCC, sold alot of puts on JDSU and started selling puts on LU. If LU drops below 50 I will start to buy the stock and if it goes below 45 I will load up the boat. Steve

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To: Bhag Karamchandani who wrote (17)	2/18/2000 8:53:00 AM
From: lofalutin	of 34

SI: StockTalk: Communications: APA OPTICS(APAT)-fiberoptic upstar Reply to Post #17 from Bhag Karamchandani at Feb 10 2000 9:31PM Also, since AVANEX identified their processor' customer does anyone know why APAT hasn't identified theirs??? Any guesses. Bhag, Since you asked for a guess, mine is that the customer may have stipulated as part of their sales agreement that APAT not divulge their identity. The computer company I work for has been in a similar position. I'm not sure why the customer company wants such restrictions, but I know they occasionally do. But... that's only a guess.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (2)	2/21/2000 11:27:00 PM
From: jack bittner	of 34

hello Andy. i admire your posts. i think your opinions are very well grounded in facts and common sense - both as to timing (april 10) and stocks. i know you don't think much of avnx, because you favor both adct (#1) and apat. you've written that avnx can achieve only 100 Ghz vs apat's 50 (eventual 25), also cost advantages and 1 yr ahead of avnx for 50 Ghz. i've read that NT can do 160 channels, which'd be just over 18 Ghz. have you read that? is it so? now comes avnx. geo gilder (i've read some criticism of him lately. for example, that his claims for terayon are extreme) says avanex can do (or will be able to do) 2000 channels. that is 1.5 Ghz!!! on the one hand, i know photonic engineers who say this is BS, or who can't simply accept it. i've read your brief description of their Interleaver, about separating the odd and even channels and "using the lower density parts" (don't get the part in quotes). i suppose one could cause interference, focus the beam, get dark, light, dark: is that the Interleaver? But my key question is the apparent contradiction: that we have on one hand this extravagant claim of 1.5 Ghz that no one believes or understands; and on the other hand we know they have the backing of the mayfield fund, sequoia capital and the venture funds of wcom and msft. they are big, tough outfits, and they must have kicked the tires pretty hard before investing millions. they have the work of Simon Cao, formerly etek(38 patents) and CTO John Fee (20 patents), formerly with wcom. they say Mr Cao jointly developed and share ownership of the patent with with Fujitsu. have you any thoughts on all this - especialy the hard-to-believe claims versus the solid financial backing? do you believe the claims?: the PowerShaper and the PowerMux? i eagerly await your opinions. jack

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To: jack bittner who wrote (21)	2/22/2000 12:45:00 PM
From: Andy Yamaguchi	of 34

Jack, to answer your question why AVNX has so many backup from big name like mcom, msft..., you know that MCOM and MSFT got their shares just before the IPO at the price around 10. Actually, fiberoptics space is very hot, any fiberoptic company can get big name backup them. I have a friend in Newfocus-a start up fiberoptic company in Silicon Valley. Many VC are coming to their door to invest, but they are saying no-need now. I am not saying AVNX is not good, you know I would also invest my own money if I could get 10 a share for AVNX. AVNX is still a good company. The issue is the valuation. Their valuation is nearing ETEK's. They only have one product. The method they are using for DWDM is called interleaver method, they do not own the technology. ETEK/JDSU/GLW also are going to have this technology in months. There is no advantage for AVNX. I would definitely sell AVNX and buy ETEK now. ETEK is a much much stronger company comparing to AVNX. AVNX also has share ownership issue. Insiders own more than 90% of the shares. When the lookup period expires,I expect massive insider sells. Higher density DWDM is very difficult to do. But as the interleaver and fiber grading technologies advance, we shall see higher density ahead. In addition, I expect system integrators like LU and NT would use signal processing methods to further increase the channel density for DWDM system. Until today, there is almost no signal processing techniques applied for increasing DWDM system density. Good luck Andy

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote ()	2/22/2000 2:14:00 PM
From: AmericanVoter	of 34

Andy, I like APAT, but am unable to understand it's price performance... with the FiberOPtics conference coming early March in Baltimore MD, do you think that will create a big price boost for APAT... and I keep wondering, their new DWDM is the one and only so far, so how come the rally ran out of steam from a high of 67 to where we are now... any comments thanks, best regards amein

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To: AmericanVoter who wrote (23)	2/22/2000 3:09:00 PM
From: Andy Yamaguchi	of 34

Fiberoptic conf. is coming in next month. There are few market research sessions during the conf.. Many wallstreet analysts would be there. The market is growing so fast. I guess the sector is going to get a boost during /after the conf.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (24)	2/28/2000 3:47:00 PM
From: t2	of 34

Had a nice pop today. Got used to seeing it around 40 recently. Fibre optic announcement had a sustained effect on the stock price (going up of course) on these companies. There are just too many funds/retail investors looking to pick up shares in company that makes announcements in this area. Saw the same thing happen with COHR and ADCT. Just waiting for the next company. Any ideas?

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To: t2 who wrote (25)	2/29/2000 12:37:00 AM
From: k_maxwell	of 34

SPLI APAT POCI NOIZ SCKT nice day. Wireless and fiber optic component makers are going berserk. Ride the wave of the future, my man. Enjoy your posts on the JDSU and G&K threads. Low float microcap wireless or fiber optic is the place to be right now. Check 'em out yo

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To: k_maxwell who wrote (26)	2/29/2000 8:31:00 AM
From: t2	of 34

Thanks for the list of stocks. Going to look into them. It seems the small caps are the best bets. Even if one makes a bad pick (not so great earnings), the takeover possibilities usually support the stock price, at least in the fibre optics sector. Not that familiar with wireless---Nokia and RIMM are holdings but i am just learning the sector.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote ()	3/17/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: AmericanVoter	of 34

no news on APAT...! are we waiting for some announcement or something...? eom

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