| To: richardred who wrote (644) | 8/25/2000 10:07:10 AM | | From: richardred | | | | Jack any Opinions On Olin
I followed the company since 1978. It's a much changed, much misunderstood company. The company is shrinking and is transforming itself into the more faster growing specialty metals company. Although mostly thought of as a cyclical diversified chemical company company. IMO-This company has position itself to grow faster, and be less cyclical. |
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| To: The Ox who wrote (642) | 8/25/2000 10:36:48 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Michael, Thanks for note on the revenue rise. Apparently GR aerospace division segment is improving. A cursory looks shows many upgrades based on increased sales in this area. So the market is looking forward for growth.
03-Aug-00 BEFORE THE OPEN
B.F. Goodrich (GR) 37 1/2: DLJ initiates coverage with a BUY rating and price target of $50; cites recent recovery of the aircraft cycle and the pending sale of GR's performance materials business.
31-Jul-00 09:30 -- 10:00 ET
B.F. Goodrich (GR) 35 5/16 +1 1/8: SG Cowen upgrades to STRONG BUY from BUY; brokerage believes improving
commercial aerospace demand bolsters 2001-02 visibility.
Jack |
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| To: Mike E. who wrote (643) | 8/25/2000 10:42:32 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Thanks Mike for the post. Watching the capital hill people calling on Bridgestone and Ford to find out the pace of the recall. I still think that people will get some sort of voucher vs. waiting for more inventory. Noticing the Firestone dealers business booming in our area. Doesn't seem to be any Ford Explorers in the two shops in North Aurora.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who started this subject | 8/25/2000 10:17:54 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Portfolio down 0.05%, Dow up 0.09%, Nasdaq down 0.26%, S&P500 down 0.12%, Gilder up 0.1%, Meisler down 0.5%, J-Blimps down 0.6%, Fuel cells/Alt energy up 4.6%
NYSE Volume: 674 mln...Adv: 1420...Dec: 1329
Nasdaq Volume: 1.2 bln...Adv: 2137...Dec: 1760
Put/Call ratio 0.50 (Range 0.38 to 0.50) Bullish in the morning
Sector Watch
No sector mocved 2% either way. Indicative of the flatness today.
Portfolio Watch
BRZE up 3.81% No news. PTEN down 2.73%. Gas prices eased after run-up.
Other stocks.
PLUG up 18% to push the feul cell stocks higher. Plug loses pres. and CEO today and Chase H&Q reiterates coverage of PLUG at Buy. Hard to believe that this was responsible for the jump.
EMLX. The Angel of Alchemy thread is a good recap of the hoax of the year today.
*************************************************
Short EMLX @ 111. KevinMark at 9:48
Yep saw that down 4th qtr earns revision ....good short too 2Mars 9:49
It's dead! But then again, maybe "sirauthurthomas" will take the other side and prop it up! Bwhaaaaahahahahaha! Kevinmark 9:52
EMLX is dead....;-) 2Mars 10:13
Yeau, their sticking it good, aren't they! Nice! Maybe sirauthurthomas' arzz is burning right now, because I'm the contrarian indicator! Hahahahaahahahahah! Kevin Mark 10:15
For those who missed the EMLX bad news here it is , great short:
Emulex Announces Revised Earnings
COSTA MESA, CA, Aug 25, 2000 (INTERNET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Emulex Corp.
(Nasdaq: EMLX), the world's largest supplier of fibre channel adapters, announced that last quarter's earnings will be revised and will fall short of previously announced Net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal will be revised to a loss $0.15 per diluted share, compared with net income of $3.0 million, or
per diluted share, for the same quarter a year Earnings for Q4 were reported as $0.25 per share, due to compliance with generally accepted accounting principles, revisions were made. Net Earnings for fiscal 1998 and 1999 will also be revised. A press release with more detail will be submitted today at 5:00 pm
EST.
Emulex is a leading designer, developer and supplier a broad line of Fibre Channel host adapters, hubs, and software products that provide connectivity for Fibre Channel storage area networks (SANs), network attached storage (NAS) and RAID. The products are based on internally developed technology, and are
deployable across a variety SAN configurations and operating systems, enhancing flow between computers and peripherals.
Emulex's products offer customers the unique combination of critical reliability, scalability and performance, and can be customized for mission-critical server and storage system applications. Emulex products have been selected by world's leading server and storage providers, including Compaq,
EMC, Fujitsu-Siemens, Groupe Bull, Hitachi Data Systems, IBM, NEC and In addition, Emulex includes industry leaders Intel, McData, Microsoft, Legato and VERITAS its strategic partners.
EMULEX -- the fibre channel company
``Safe Harbor'' Statement under the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995: With the exception of information, the statements set forth above forward-looking statements that involve risk uncertainties. The company wishes to caution readers that a number of important factors could cause results to differ
materially from those in the statements. Those factors include the the fact that the company's markets are characterized by rapidly changing technology, evolving standards and frequent introductions of new and enhancements, and the company's ability respond to such changes; maturation in the network server and printer server products; the fact the fibre channel market is at an early stage of development; the highly competitive nature of the markets for the company's products; the company's ability to attract and retain skilled personnel; the reliance on third party suppliers for components used in the company's products
and on manufacturing subcontractors that assemble anddistribute the company's products; the company's reliance on certain OEMs, distributors and key customers; and potential fluctuations in the company's effective tax rate. These and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially those in
the forward-looking statements are also in the company's filings with the Securities Exchange Commission, including its recent filings Form 10-K and Form 10-Q.
Note to Editors: This news release refers to various and companies by their
trade names. In most, not all, cases these designations are claimed as or
registered trademarks by their respective companies.
CONTACT: Robin Schnug
Emulex Corp.
714-513-8152
Copyright 2000 Internet Wire, All rights reserved.
Posted by 2Mars 10:15
EMLX----------> it is dead dead dead ! down 37pts OooooooH My !!!!
cha cha ching! :-)) 2Mars 10:16
+35 and counting baby! Titanic 2, the sequal!!!!!!! LMAO!!!!!!!!! Kevinmark 10:21
Have to do this just once ----> Bwaaaaaaaahaaaaahahah!!! LMAO!!! down 45pts !!! 2Mars 10:22
QLGC-just fell off a cliff too-------sympathy play with EMLX Richard Busky 10:22
Couldn't of happened on a better day, after 9 straight up days on the Nasdaq!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Kevinmark 10:23
emlx down 47 - I think it just filled it gap. 2mar$ do you have this guy short?? Wes Stevens 10:24
EMLX -- what was the news? Can't find anything on it. Don't have the stock, just curious how you guys knew it was going to tank. BarbaraT 10:25
EMLX -63 Unbelievable...there were so many momos in this stock past 9 up trading days ...they can't get off the ship fast enough covering here soon ....oh my o my o my!!! made my millenea! :-) 2Mars 10:25
Had it on my list to short due to it's run up. I shorted yesterday and saw that it was to strong, so I covered. Shorted this morning in pre-market. Caught wind of the revised earnings after holding for awhile. Would have held regardless due to the recent run up in the Naz! Kevinmark 10:28
I keep shakeing my head on the rise of emlx. I should have shorted. Smartmoney 10:28
EMLX halted. Smartmoney 10:29
You bet....caught that news and didn't hesitate ...that kind of news is death!!!!
called it in mIRC ------>EMLX – 68 2Mars 10:29
F#%#...they halted it!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2Mars 10:29
I just tried to cover! Hopefully they'll open it lower! Hehehehe! Kevinmark 10:30
Holy Moly, I've been trading in and out of EMLX for the last several days. Just lucky to be out when the poop hit. How on Earth do they mistate earnings by that much and correct it this quickly?
I'm almost always look for a dead-cat-bounce entry on a stock down this much, but it's just too scary. It could easily go to the 20's. I think it's halted right now. Kevinmckenzie 10:30
that news is death for sure. but you have to be real quick. Congrats WesStevens 10:32
Thanks 2Mar ... it's not on any of my news services (guess they are all delayed). Where did you get this .. Yahoo? BarbaraT 10:33
Kevin, I think you're safe on EMLX. It was in the low 40's and dropping on 8/3, the day before they announced the inflated earnings. Kevinmckenzie 10:33
monster trade ...just a monster...2Mars 10:33
EMLX from Briefing....Announces resignation of CEO as SEC launches investigation. Smartmoney 10:33
This one is real strange. I thought it was only the software firms that could get caught in this??? With hardware there should be no issues. You ship the hardware and you book. Something really stinks here. Don't try and play the bounce on this one. WesStevens 10:34
EMLX...Well the news wasn't evertywhere ...and it was trying to follow the gap up....
it was perfectly set up a play as you could ask for ...9 days of going up and then they
warn right after the open....amazed! Kevin faster than me ....i got shares $109 <gg> 2Mars 10:35
Barb...you should seriously to purchase a news package, that particular release came over News Traders...2Mars10:42
What a brilliant call!!! <EMLX short at 111> Kevin, you are a master and have something money can not buy. Smartmoney 10:42
These guys are in big trouble. A friggin triple in the last month, so these arzzwhipes could get out on BS PR's! Can you spell.... L-A-W-S-U-I-T-SSSSSSSSSSSSSS! Kevinmark 10:42
Thanks for the news. I was kind of mad that I got out after taking 30% and missed the double. This is a mess. I see a lawsuit. Jackhartmann 10:45 (Slow as always)
EMLX single handed trashed the whole market. More money lost on the market than EMLX, for sure. I should sue them. Smartmoney 10:48
No kidding. Everything going red JackHartmann 10:50 (Note I sell PUMA then fearing the Nasdaq collapse imminent)
EMLX took attention away from the rest of the market. Sort of like a tractor trailer wreck on the side of the highway.....everyone slammed on their brakes to take a look. Spincity 10:51
Barbara, I shorted this am, because it was way overdone and then had a friend of mine alert me to the revised earnings. Kevinmark 10:52
here is what the problem with EMLX is going to be on the open--so many shares -sell orders-stop losses etc got taken out so fast -shares for sale may be hard to come by. This is thin on island. Use caution friends! Spincity 10:54
here is what the problem with EMLX is going to be on the open--so many shares -sell orders-stop losses etc got taken out so fast -shares for sale may be hard to come by. This is thin on island. Use caution friends! BarbaraT 10:54
Kevin, Congratulations ! I don't think I've ever seen a better call. :) Jo Ellen 10:57
I've been weighting for a pullback for 5 straight days now. People who are throwing money at any and every Fibre Optic should really rethink about that strategy, because your going to see a lot more of these type falls in this sector. This only the start for more to come IMHO! Kevinmark 10:58
WOW -- CNBC says EMLX news may have been a HOAX! Eom Vagabond 11:02
Yes , i was tooo....wait a minute, look here??---> Emulex Corporation-EMLX 'News was a hoax' from CNBC _ Stay tuned Rumors Oh that is terrible...someone is going to fry! 2Mars 11:02
The rest is history. Needless to say, I watched the story unfold and totally ignored anything else.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (650) | 8/25/2000 10:45:39 PM | | From: Mike E. | | | | The rest is history. Needless to say, I watched the story unfold and totally ignored anything else.
A day I won't forget for a long, long time. I was paralyzed for most of the day watching EMLX. (Of course I shorted it this morning 110+ and covered about 20 mins. later 103+. About 30 secs. after that it was $95, $85, $65 and, well, you know the rest. I have never seen a stock drop like that - it was dropping $5 a pop.)
Nice summary, Jack. I had to stop myself from revelling in the glory of gains when I realized how many people were going to be seriously hurt by this manipulation.
:(
Almost makes you feel like you need a shower after making money like that.
Mike |
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| To: Mike E. who wrote (651) | 8/26/2000 4:20:54 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | I realized how many people were going to be seriously hurt by this manipulation.
Interesting point. I read the Angel thread, The Thread, and EMLX threads. Only saw one long who was in shock to sell. I wonder who lost the reported millions. Momomentum traders? Hedge Funds?
Congrats on the short. Apparently many never covered.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (605) | 8/27/2000 11:51:17 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) Surfing the MWAV
Rated a WATCH
Reason for DD
Made the summer screen
Business
M-Wave, Inc., operating through its wholly owned subsidiary, Poly Circuits, Inc., manufactures microwave printed circuit boards using Teflon-based laminates. In addition, it produces customer-specified bonded assemblies consisting of a printed circuit board bonded in some manner to a metal carrier or pallet. The Company has also developed the Flexlink process, the bonding of materials with dissimilar coefficients of thermal expansion, and the fusion bonding of Teflon based laminate for multi-layer circuit fabrication. The Company developed an enhanced version called Flexlink II in 1996. The Company's printed circuit boards and bonded assemblies are used in wireless communication systems and other devices and equipment operating in the microwave frequency spectrum of 800 MHz and above.
LITIGATION The Company is a party to various actions and proceedings related to its normal business operations. The Company believes 7 8 that the outcome of this litigation will not have a material adverse effect on the financial position or results of operations of the Company.
Net sales were $11,973,000 for the second quarter ended June 30, 2000, an increase of $10,077,000 or 531% above the second quarter of 1999. Net sales to Lucent were $10,537,000 in the second quarter of 2000 compared to $782,000 in the second quarter of 1999. Net sales to Spectrian were $299,000 in the second quarter of 2000 compared to $412,000 in the second quarter of 1999. Net sales to RF Power were $418,000 in the second quarter of 2000 compared to $137,000 in the second quarter of 1999.
Competitors
Flextronics | SCI Systems | Solectron
Per Hoovers
News
25-Jul-00 10:02 ET
M-Wave, Inc. (MWAV) 10 7/8 +2 31/32 (+37.5%): Manufacturer of high performance printed circuit boards used in wireless communications reports a Q2 profit of $0.33 a share, compared to a yr-ago loss of $0.10; sales rose 123% to $11.97 mln... volume 58K
Analysts and Other
None
Numbers
Rev 1.9M to 2.2M to 3.6M to 5.4M to 12.0M Jun00
EPS -.10 to -.22 to .01 to .07 to .33 Jun00
52-Week Low on 17-Nov-1999 $1.625
Recent Price $12.625
52-Week High on 9-Aug-2000 $16.125
Market Capitalization $28.8M
Shares Outstanding 2.28M
Float 1.40M
Price/Book (mrq*) 2.69
Price/Earnings (ttm) 64.41
Price/Sales (ttm) 1.25
Debt/Equity (mrq*) 0.20
Total Cash (mrq) $1.96M
Short Interest As of 10-July-2000
Shares Short 0
Shares Short (Prior Month) 2,000
Inventory went from $2,030,417 in December 99 to $6,775,931 in Jun00
Accounts payable $ 1,974,067 in Dec99 to $ 5,738,160 Jun00
Net cash flow $ 151,779 six months in Jun99 to $(1,719,621) Jun00 six months
Insiders
One insider sell and no buys in 2000
Four institutions accounting for 0.9% of shares out. 22K in total.
Internet Posts of Note
When Lucent spins off their microelectronics unit then MWAV will have 2 major customers. Lucent says this spinoff will allow faster growth for this unit and will not change suppliers and distributors 8/15/00 on yahoo
Does anyone remember what happened to this darling high flyer years ago?
Their one customer gave'em the heave-ho and they been fighting their way back since!
(If memory serves me, it was AT&T.) Hope they learned their lesson! 8/14/00 on yahoo
I Shorted MWAV @ $12.25 a few days ago. Looking at the chart it shot up to fast. I figured it would drop around $8.00 soon. It is the first stock I ever Shorted. So I wanted to keep it small. 7/31/00 on SI
2 contract manufactures for Lucent are set up for using MWAV's Flexlink bonding process so the royalties should start rolling in.Lucent plans on using MWAV's bonding process for all of their bonding needs.If these are big manufactures we could see some other companies jumping on board and really be big for MWAV in the licensing area.I suggest listing to the conference call at www.vcall.com for a replay before shorting this stock.MWAV reminds me of DIGL a little over a year ago when Lucent was their only big customer.Word got out and business boomed.Watch out shorts a sqeeze on a low volume stock can hurt.Remember KTEL. 7/27/00 on yahoo
The float is way too low and the action is too hot. I don't think that is an issue. I think the insitutions are waking up to mwav and so are the daytraders. It is really anybodys guess where this can go short term. Over the next 18 Mo this could be a 30+ stock. Then it will split. Another important issue is the fact that Joe said in the CC that they like the stock to be around 10 and will split accordingly. So I would't be surprised to see some of the big money run the stock up there to wait for the split. In fact that is probably why Joe went public with that comment. 7/27/00 on yahoo
Web, LU apparently likes MWAV's patented FlexLink bonding technology so much it's asked MWAV to license the technology to 2 other LU suppliers. 7/25/00 on SI
Margins sound like they will expand,customer base growing and backlog at 15 million.Customers changing their products to use FLEXLINK. 7/25/00 on Yahoo
On the subject of LU/MWAV, I want to tell you something really exciting and potentially very big deal for MWAV. LU is very enthusiastic about MWAV's virtual manufacturing model. Recognizing MWAV's years of experience in working with subcontractors, and its relationship with many Asian suppliers, LU has expressed a strong interest to let MWAV handle a large deal with an Asian manufacturer. This manufacturer visited LU this week and is meeting with Joe Turek at this very moment. In essence MWAV acts as the "general contractor" for LU to manage the manufacturing process in Asia. This is the kind of high margin, value-added services that fits into Turek's virtual manufacturing business model. It also allows MWAV to broaden its base into new products. 7/23/00 on SI
The opening of an office in Asia is part of MWAV's "virtual manufacturing" process to bring better value to clients while expanding the company operations in the States. It's good news all around. Joe Turek is setting Mr. Lee loose on the Flextronics account following the announcement between Motorola and FLEX. Could be huge potential for MWAV. 6/3/00 on SI
i'm not trying to "scare" other longs, but i hope you know MWAV is heading back to the 2s and 3s
good luck. 6/27/00 on SI
While I must admit I sold about 60-70% of my position after the run to $15 3/4 because I thought the stock was a bit ahead of itself in my 12/28/99 post I gave a 6-9 month target of $8-10) I have accumulated almost a full position again. I was hoping to finish off my position around $4-1/2 but a big buyer came in and popped it to $6. I believe Q2 will come in around $6 to $6.5 million in revenue and I would guess that earnings will be 10c-15c after tax. Keep in mind that they have over $2 million in tax loss carryforwards so the numbers are actually much better then they report (they report taxed numbers). I was glad to see the company tighten up the range of revenues they expect this year. They are looking for a 100% increase in revenues and I would guess they are looking at around 60c-70c a share in earnings as I mentioned in my 12/28/99 post when I mentioned I thought this was an $8-10 stock within 6-9 months. I was surprised to see people run the stock to $15 3/4 but this is the kind of stock that will do that due to a thin float and an exciting industry (3G Wireless).
I would think that MWAV, being a clear beneficiary of the rollout of 3G Celluar/Internet service, should peform well over the next several years. Based on comments from QCOM and IDCC there will clearly be an upgrade of all cellular towers (as well as many new towers) which is precisely where MWAV products go. The Lucent business is for power amplifier boards that go into these towers and should remain robust for years to come. 3G should be a multi-year rollout and margins should be very high as the population demands bandwidth, speed and now wireless connectivity. Additionally, I believe that MWAV is starting to see demand from many of its other customers such as Motorola, Spectrian, and others. They will need additional capacity in order to handle the increased business.
MWAV did state that they would be buying a 50,000 square foot facility to consolidate their operations. Despite some seemingly irrational posts to the contrary, I think this is a brilliant move. MWAV currently operates out of three facilities (one they own(administrative) and two (manufacturing) that they lease with leases up). Buying this facility should not cost more than $3-4 million including equipment which, with some municipal financing, will be a wash in terms of costs of their present set up. They will however gain in efficiencies and capacity which will allow them to grow the business four-fold with few pains. I believe Joe Turek has the vision to lead the company and is making the right moves. He owns 750,000 shares and has bought additional shares over the last six months.
With a $4.90 book value and virtually no debt I think MWAV is a great buy. If they put up the 60c-70c I think they will this year and $1.00-$1.20 next year with double and maybe triple digit revenue gains the stock should approach the old highs. The company is in the best position it has ever been in and has fewer share outstanding now then before. I would look for a 9-12 month target in the $18-24 range, which would give it a modest P/E, and then I would split it if I were the company in an effort to increase the float. We shall see.
6/6/00 on Yahoo
Chart
Ran Jul24 on earnings and doubled from $8 to $16. Big days are green. Big runup in March to $14 from $6 and back to $6.
Links
mwav.com
Summary
Good deal at $5, not sure at $12. I hate dependence on a few companies for revenues. Chart shows momo players are pumping this. Jingle me when it retreats to $6 as history tends to repeat. I live 40 minutes away so it tempting to make a call. Website does not work. Can’t pull up a press release. Vcall has MWAV on it but only a postponement of the CC. Volume very low. Don’t like those inventory and account receivables numbers. What should be an invisible conpany has shorts posting but no short interest. Strange indeed.
Jack |
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