| To: Dale Baker who wrote (630) | 8/24/2000 11:58:13 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Dale, thanks for the comment. The concerns that I had with NRG were that NS has 95% of the stock. The potential dumping of stock like TRW did to RFMD can limit the upside.
The second is assessing the growth in revenues for the future. I am not sure why it won't track the utitilies sector in general.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (632) | 8/24/2000 12:05:29 PM | | From: Dale Baker | | | | | I am waiting for NRG to hit 30 then I may cash out, at least part of the position. But it looks like a good play the rest of this year. |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who started this subject | 8/24/2000 12:45:18 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Sold CTB at $12. Heard on the radio by reliable business correspondent (WBBM) that CTB's Mississippi plant makes tires in the Firestone fashion and it has 50 lawsuits for defects in their tires. No mention of any deaths, but this is troublesome. Hasn't made the made major print so will lock in profits now.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (634) | 8/24/2000 12:54:02 PM | | From: Mike E. | | | | Saw an analyst pumping BF Goodrich in CNBC this morning. Not so much for the Firestone stuff as the fact that airplane production/usuage is up and expected to continue to grow and he liked Goodrich's position in supplying tires to that sector among other.
(Going from memory here and it ain't very good memory at that, but that is how I recall hearing it between reading message boards, making trades, etc. <g>)
No recommendation here, just passing along...
Mike |
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| To: Mike E. who wrote (635) | 8/24/2000 2:55:43 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Thanks for the info Mike. I think BF Goodrich is part of the French Michelin chain. I should know this but never really checked. I have seen stories indicating GT and Michelin would be the largest beneficaries of the recall.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (627) | 8/24/2000 10:59:06 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Portfolio up 1.61%, Dow up 0.34%, Nasdaq up 1.05%, S&P500 up 0.16%, Gilder up 1.1%, Meisler up 0.8%, J-Blimps up 2.2%, Fuel cells/Alt energy up 0.5%
NYSE Volume: 821 mln...Adv: 1431...Dec: 1381
Nasdaq Volume: 1.52 bln...Adv: 2204...Dec: 1771
Put/Call ratio 0.42 (Range 0.32 to 0.42) Most intraday bullish since the spring collapse
Sector Watch
Energy (XLE) 32.53 -0.72 -2.17% Every one in the index was red today. MSDW downgraded several in the sector like XOM for high valuation.
XOM RD CHV SLB TX ENE HAL WMB COC.B CGP P EPG RIG BHI UCL BR APC MRO OXY APA KMG AHC CG TOS RDC SUN ASH MDR
Biotechs ($BTK) 741.06 +47.53 +6.85%. CORR led the index up with a 20% gain. Most green on the day. I heard Clinton talk positively about stem cell research yesterday. Robertson Stephens analyst Michael King initiated coverage of the stock (HGSI: news, msgs) with a "buy" rating and set a 12-month price target of $169 to $200 a share. Shares jumped 20 3/4 to 158 13/16. Nice looking 50/200 stack.
AMGN BGEN CRA CEPH CHIR CORR GENZ GILD HGSI IDPH IMNX MEDI MLNM ORG PDLI VRTX are the index.
Disk Drives ($DDX) 104.79 +10.47 +11.10% sectors is hot. Never did get around to determining the best one. RDRT up 31% on news of strong orders and Samsung deal. RDRT announced its GMR heads have been selected for 20GB per 3.5" platter platforms at all 4 of its major customers. KMAG and HMTT up 25% in sympathy. IOM and HDD are the laggarts in the index. HMTT IOM KMAG DSS HDD RDRT SEG STK are the index. Strong move above the bearish 200/50 day stack.
Natural Gas ($XNG) 217.30 -5.17 -2.32% Moved in sympathy with the energy index.
Oil ($XOI) 523.76 -14.81 -2.75% JP Morgan downgraded RD too.
Portfolio Watch
PHA up 1.85%. A St. Louis jury unanimously decided Thursday after a three-week trial that DuPont's seed unit -- Pioneer Hi-Bred International Inc. -- violated the terms of a 1993 contract that gave it access to Monsanto's gene at terms far more favorable than had other seed companies. Monsanto is a unit of Pharmacia Corp., Peapack, N.J.
RFMD up 9.07% Running up on the split coming.
BRZE up 10.90% Apparently the EPS estimate is getting raised on yahoo. Three analysts following company so something making them get bullish. biz.yahoo.com
IRF up 5.81%. International Rectifier (IRF: news, msgs) will replace Consolidated Paper (CDP: news, msgs) in the S&P MidCap 400 index.
UCL down 3.91%. All oils were down.
MDT up 0.12%, Medtronic is expected to appoint Arthur Collins the successor to Chief Executive William George on May 1.
Other stocks.
CREE up 9% Fortune Magazine Names Cree, Inc. as One of Ten Best Stocks; Cree Ranked Number 11 of 100 Fastest Growing Companies. On fire, and I sold it too soon.
LNUX up 18% Chase H&Q reiterates BUY following company's strong earnings report with solid execution and great positioning; firm believes investment sentiment is beginning to turn more positive for the shares and the latest results will add momentum to the stock. Great quarter, but IBM and DELL bother me with their linux server lead.
QCOM up 7%. No news, but it was lagging the rest of the tech and may be catching up.
FCEL up 7.4% on news of the 2/1 split for Sep 6.
Next Level Comm (NXTV) 47 1/32 -44 17/32: -- Update -- Merrill Lynch downgrades to NT NEUTRAL from NT ACCUMULATE after Lehman downgraded stock on concerns that Qwest may not move forward on VDSL initiative; Merrill estimates that Qwest represents nearly 70% of NXTV's revenues this year and roughly 50% next year.
Comment: A crystal ball would be nice on this. Down 54% in a day! A rebound should occur.
09:20 ET Tut Systems (TUTS) 110 15/16: Kaufman Brothers downgrades to BUY from STRONG BUY, citing concerns over valuation. Stresses that opinion of company and its prospects remains positive. Only down 4% on downgrade.
If it drops 25AA% r mroe, one to grab.
Durable-goods orders slumped 12.4% last month in the U.S., posting the biggest monthly decline in four decades. One month after surging 9.5%, new orders for big-ticket items intended to last three years or more, such as cars and computers, tumbled 12.4% in July. It was the largest such decrease on record, the Commerce Department said. The decline was fueled by enormous decreases in orders for aircraft, which fell 49.2% after rising 85.3% in June, and electrical equipment, which fell 16.9% after slipping just 0.6% in the previous month.
I see a lot of bullishness. The Nasdaq still in it triangle. Meisler thinking it is too weak to have a strong move out of it. UCL coming close to being stopped out. Tough to watch the high flyers run, but we know that is fire. Just be happy with a little green every day.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (638) | 8/25/2000 12:16:50 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | B) Quick and loose on PUMA. Added today at $23.06
Rated a BUY
24-Aug-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
PUMATECH (PUMA) 23 7/16 +2 7/8: Reports Q4 loss of $0.08 a share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.11), vs year-ago earnings of $0.01. Stock giving back most of the day's gains in after hours, now trading at 21 1/2. Revenue increased 52% to $9.03 mln.;
22-Aug-00 12:55 ET
Pumatech (PUMA) 20 9/16 +1 9/16: This former highflier has been stuck in a holding pattern for the last few months, but some product announcements and anticipation of a good quarterly report this week are keeping the shares on our radar screen. Yesterday PUMA announced a deal to provide their Browse-it Web rendering/browsing software with Card Access's Springboard - compatible Wristband Thincom Portable Modem. The agreement will allow Handspring (HAND) Visor users to view Web content online through Card Access's Thincom Portable Modem, as well as the option to take Browse-it "SnapShots" for offline viewing. Today's news was the long-anticipated launch of Satellite Forms Server (formerly known internally as Vulcan). The software allows Palm (PALM) users to create specialized applications on their PDA that securely links to their corporate network server database. PUMA is trying to become the market leader in synchronicity of wireless devices such as PDAs and cell phones to back-end network server databases and office PCs. The goal is to allow mobile executives to update such critical data as contacts, inventory, expenses, etc. through the different operating systems that each component utilizes. The market opportunities for the applications are enormous -- the wireless enterprise access market is expected to grow at about 50% annually as corporate IT departments outfit their employees with mobile access. Although PUMA was one of 1999's best NASDAQ performers, this year has seen the stock shed over 50% of its value and significantly underperform the NASDAQ. The market's sentiment has changed, but the story at PUMA hasn't. The company is growing revenues at a rate of over 45% annually while bolstering their technology through strategic acquisitions and heavy R&D investment. Here's what the market doesn't like about PUMA: 1) the company is still very small -- expected to post annual sales just south of $30 mln. 2) PUMA is still operating in the red -- expected to record a net loss of over $18 mln this year. 3) valuation -- ttm P/S = 22.0x and forward (FY00) P/S = 26.4x. That said, we're expecting another solid quarter from PUMA when they report after the close Thursday. The company indicated a robust backlog last quarter, so Q4 sales should come in strong. Look for revenues north of $8.6 mln, representing a 50% increase, and loss per share to beat the Street estimate of ($0.11) by a few pennies. - Matt Gould, Briefing.com
21-Aug-00 13:00 -- 14:00 ET
PUMATECH (PUMA) 19 5/8 +5/8: Company announces it has partnered with privately held Card Access to offer web browsing;
18-Aug-00 10:40 ET
PUMATECH (PUMA) 18 1/2 +1/2 (+2.8%): Stock has used support at the $17 1/2 level to mount a rally attempt. PUMA is a developer of mobile device management and synchronization software. Stock has traded in a 52-week range of 2 1/4 to 102 7/16.... volume 340K; intraday range 17 9/16 to 18 15/16.
02-Aug-00 10:00 -- 11:00 ET
PUMATECH (PUMA) 20 7/16 +2 1/8: Wedbush Morgan initiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and 12-month price target of $38; expects another large portal deal in the near future; company should generate positive operating income by Q3 in FY02.
10-Jul-00 11:00 -- 12:00 ET
PUMATECH (PUMA) 25 15/16 +1 1/4: Frost Securities reiterates STRONG BUY rating and price target of $98 after company announced it is acquiring privately held Dry Creek Software; acquisition will strengthen PUMA's ability to roll-out new MAP (Mobile Application Platform).
10-Jun-00 Pumatech (PUMA) 34 3/4: Company is a leader in the rapidly growing wireless-Internet marketplace... Recent acquisitions of NetMind and ProxiNet give Puma the broad range of Web-based personalization services and technology needed to become a top-tier infrastructure provider for mobile, wireless and Internet appliance-based e-business... We expect the company to continue growing top-line by better than 40% (year/year) in the quarters to come... While increased R&D and sales/marketing expenses will continue to pressure the bottom line over the near-term, Briefing.com notes that despite these increases, the company still managed to beat street expectations when it reported third-quarter results a couple weeks back... Basically, this is a well-run company in one of the fastest-growing segments of technology.
09-Jun-00
Synchronize!
[BRIEFING.COM - Robert J. Reid] Have you ever updated the calendar on your Palm, rescheduling a meeting for Monday, only to get to your office and find that your PC still has it for Friday? Pumatech's (PUMA 36 7/16) synchronization software called Intellisync enables all of your digital devices (PCs, laptops, smart phones, smart pagers, cell phones etc.) to "be on the same page." This ability applies not only to your calendar, but to a broad range of PC-based personal management tools such as contacts, to-do lists, appointments, e-mail, and calendars using applications such as Microsoft Outlook/Exchange/Schedule, Lotus Notes/Domino, Novell Groupwise, etc. When you add an item to your to-do list on your PC, for example, synchronization software causes your hand-held device to show the item as well. It eliminates redundancy and inconsistency among your digital devices. Briefing.com believes that Pumatech is well-positioned to lead this segment.
Intellisync.com
A few months ago, Pumatech launched what it calls its Internet initiative, which in a nutshell means it will use the Web to be the synchronization engine. This summer, Pumatech will launch Intellisync.com. Here's how it works: Imagine you have 25 contacts on your Palm Pilot, 35 contacts on your cell phone, a Yahoo! e-mail address book with 15 addressees and an Internet-based calendar with PlanetAll.com. By subscribing each device and product at Intellisync.com, the site would then generate an encrypted, password-protected database of your information and sync all your devices through the Web. With Intellisync.com, Pumatech is attempting to be the first company to offer the ability to use the Web to update hand-held devices without having to go through your PC. The company's Browse-It and Mind-It software products will also be offered through Intellisync.com. Pumatech plans to market and license its Web-based products and solutions to e-commerce providers, Web portals and individual consumers. Pumatech also plans to offer these new products and solutions to corporations. The service is free for end-users with Pumatech making its money from signing up licensees.
MAP: More Than Just Synchronization
Pumatech's synchronization software is just one component of what it calls its MAP (Mobile Application Platform). Other exciting MAP components include Browse-It which Pumatech launched just this week. Browse-it software provides Palm users with the ability to view Web content on-line while utilizing a wireless or wireline modem, and the option to take Browse-it "SnapShots" for off-line viewing when wireless or wireline Web access is not available. It has the look and feel of desktop browsers. Browse-it supports Palm-compatible handhelds and will be offered as a service on Intellisync.com and will be bundled in future versions of the Intellisync product line. Another software product is Mind-it which allows users to have their own personal tracking and email alert system. Mind-It allows users to track almost anything that you can see in your browser, including the entire page, any portion of text on a page, images, links, even keywords. Mind-It will email you when something changes. Good uses for Mind-It are: eBay auctions so users can be alerted when the auction price has changed and for passengers to be notified as soon as a flight becomes available, for example. An advantage of MAP is that it provides quick and easy deployment with proven scale, unlike competitive offerings, which typically require a band of consultants to build a custom solution without proven scale.
Conclusion
The launching of the initiative has been sapping Pumatech's resources in order to develop and market the portal as has the integrating of the technologies recently acquired with the ProxiNet merger. In spite of currently operating in the red, there is reason for a good deal of optimism for earnings growth once we get beyond this transition period. First, PUMA did a bang-up job signing up licensees in the April quarter with 38 new customers licensing MAP bringing the total to 120. Similarly, enterprise adoption also increased in the quarter as more than 200 corporate enterprises licensed Intellisync. Second, PUMA has made some exciting recent acquisitions: ProxiNet Inc. (which when PUMA's synchronization technology and ProxiNet's web connectivity technology are combined, a number of product offerings will spawn) and NetMind (Mind-It delivers highly personalized, relevant Internet content to more than 7 million active users). Third, we believe the stock has been unfairly hammered from a high of $102 and that the recent run-up in shares is not finished as investors are anticipating the release of Intellisync.com this summer. The wireless stocks have been a hot sector recently, but we do not believe that Pumatech is being recognized for its exposure to this market. Pumatech is well positioned to benefit from the explosion in wireless devices accessing the Internet. Earnings should begin to ramp-up as the company gets through the expenses relating to the transformation.
05-Jun-00 09:37 ET
PUMATECH (PUMA) 28 1/8 +1 1/8 (+4.2%): Introduces Browse-it software, which allows Palm users to view Web content online while utilizing a wireless or wireline modem, and the option to take Browse-it ``SnapShots'' for offline viewing when wireless or wireline Web access is not available.
26-May-00 11:00 -- 12:00 ET
PUMATECH (PUMA) 20 3/4 -13/16: -- Update -- H.C. Wainwright reiterates STRONG BUY rating after the company posted better-than-expected Q3 salea and EPS results after the close yesterday.
26-May-00 BEFORE THE OPEN
PUMATECH (PUMA) 21 9/16: Frost Securities reiterates STRONG BUY rating and price target of $98. After PUMA reported solid results for Q3 with sales at $8.0 million, versus expectations of $7.5 million. The company also reported backlog as greater than this quarter’s revenue, along with continued increases in deferred revenue.
EPS 0.09a to 0.03a to (0.06)a to (0.08)a Jul00 per breifing.com
Rev 5.2M to 5.7M to 6.3M to 7.0M to 8.0M to 9.0M Jul00
52-Week Low on 25-Aug-1999 $2.688
Recent Price $20.563
52-Week High on 10-Mar-2000 $102.438
Market Capitalization $862.1M
Shares Outstanding 41.9M
Float 31.9M
Price/Book (mrq) 8.11
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 23.81
Debt/Equity (mrq) 0.01
Total Cash (mrq) $91.5M
Short Interest As of 10-July-2000
Shares Short 885.0K
Percent of Float 2.8%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 960.0K
30+ insider sales in 2000, buys were options excercised.
Institutions moving up to 28% from 15% three quarters ago.
Big days are green, six green days in a row. Dropped from $40 in June to present level. MACD is green.
CC Notes from today
- 6M in deferred rev up 16% from q3
- 21% rev q2q excluding note books. Legacy notebook is seven years old and declining.
- Expanding into Europe and Japan
- 85M in cash and investment, very little debt
- Affected by shortage of Palms and flash memory.
- Lockout prohibited trading. CEO sold shares to diversify holding, Still Rowe is largest holder and purchased more than sold.
- Intellisynch.com is in beta and rollout in October 2000.
- WAP handsets are sold but not being use as a data device due to difficult of use
- NTT Docomo has 10M subscribers in Japan
- Plan to provide a comprehensive service that scales and be the killer app in wireless
- 1000 corporate customer using Intellisynch
- Competitors underestimating the need for synchonization in applications
- Believe PUMA is building a killer app equivalent to MSFT office product
- Most rivals are single channels vs. our multiple channels
- $10/mo for basic is est and $80/yr. For new service.
- 100M potential user in wireless and growing 30% per year.
- Some users will prefer a free service, but PUMA targeting high end with comprehensive services.
- Still on track to announce major partner latest this year.
- 150+ licensing relationships.
- Feel the shrinkwrap model moving to a scalable subscription service.
- Vulcan is a satellite based server. Targeting rental cars, insurance, and financial companies.
- AETH brings in small army of C+ programmer to develop software and also update. PUMA is scalable and don’t need C+ programmers because it automated.
- Most wireless devices will use Java so we are moving this direction. Satform/vulcan in beta with 100 customers.
- We have an off the shelf product if I-mode by NTTdocomo hit the US.
Q&A
- Expect break even in 4 quarters
- FY2001 started few weeks back. Will concentrate in Europe (UK, Germany, France)
- Alerts.com is number one competitor. Have taking jobs away from them.
- Have EBAY as marquee client
- Avantgo? is IPO coming out competitor. Our services are integrated and have dominante the sector in market share.
- Biggest event in Japan in q4 was second delivery for Docomo for Lotus notes, which has 60-70% of groupware market
- DSO was 63 days
- 150th MAP license last quarter
- $100 a seat license for docomo, only one quarter of sales so far
- Softbank is 50% of sales in Japan?
- KDDI is a partner and license MAP architecture
- Have two largest carriers in Japan as partners
- Fortune 2000 companies are very protective of wireless data. Want to manage it by their IT department. That’s where PUMA sells corporate servers. 1000 corporate customers. 150 licensees.
- The free service when launch will affect customers. We want to make sure the PDA user is completely connected.
- Nokia is our most visible customer in Europe. Very big customer inside corporate NOK too. Been working with them 3 years.
- Has a deal with ALA. Symbion? And Syion? are partners in Europe.
- Only announce relationships as customer deploys product.
- US wireless 3 years behind Japan in wireless, and 18 months by Europe. Only US uses phone to talk. Japan used it for entertainment to.
Summary
Gapped down in the after hours. I listened to the CC and I was impressed with Rowe. Such vision and grasp of the sector. Going after market share vs. profitability so traditional model will try one’s patiences when the typical investor want q2q growth in rev and profits. Big client in October should move it. PUMA is right on Japan using the phones more and pushing technology. If they could partner with MOT and ERICY then they truly have got the killer app. Downside is $16, upside is a double by October. Only 41M in outstanding shares so insiders selling not bothering me.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (636) | 8/25/2000 8:14:21 AM | | From: Mike E. | | | | Wow, just looked at BF Goodrich (GR) and it has had a very nice run for the last year. It has almost doubled since February. Would've been a nice place to have some money during the "Tech Correction" earlier this year...
timely.com
Did we miss the boat already? Nice move yesterday as well.
Mike |
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| To: Mike E. who wrote (640) | 8/25/2000 8:39:55 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Mike, GR has had a nice run. I haven't seen the reason why.
GT numbers
Price/Book (mrq) 1.02
Price/Earnings (ttm) 13.54
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.27
GR numbers
Price/Book (mrq) 3.75
Price/Earnings (ttm) 27.57
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.84
It would seem that GR is overvalued or GT undervalued.
GR revenues have been flat the last threee quarters so I am missing something.
Jack |
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