| To: Jack Hartmann who started this subject | 8/21/2000 1:20:54 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) With a name like SLAB, it has to be good
Rated a WATCH
Reason for DD
Passed the mid-summer screen
Business
Silicon Laboratories, Inc. is engaged in the design and development of proprietary, analog-intensive, mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for the rapidly growing global communications industry. Mixed-signal ICs are electronic components that are capable of processing both digital signals and real-world analog signals, such as sound and radio waves. To develop its business rapidly, the Company initially focused its efforts on developing IC solutions for the personal computer modem market. The Company is now applying its mixed-signal and communications expertise to the development of IC solutions for other high growth communications devices such as cellular telephones and network access applications. The Company is organized into two principal divisions: the Wireline Products Division and the Wireless Products Division.
Competitors
ADI, CNXT
News
AUSTIN, Texas -- August 10, 2000 -- Silicon Laboratories Inc. (Nasdaq: SLAB), the mixed-signal integrated circuit (IC) innovator for the communications industry, today announced the completion of its previously announced acquisition of Krypton Isolation, a California-based semiconductor company. The acquisition joins the industry's pioneers in silicon Direct Access Arrangement (DAA) technology, forming the world's leading source for innovative solutions that provide isolation between a communications system and the telephone network, as required by the FCC and equivalent agencies throughout the world.
July 10, 2000 Silicon Laboratories Announces Industry's Smallest SONET/SDH Clock and Data Recovery IC- Si5020 is First in SiPHYTM Family of Physical Layer Interface Products
July 10, 2000 Silicon Laboratories Introduces Optical Networking Division-
Newest Core Technology Extends Company's Focus Into Fiber Optics This new division will focus on developing the SiPHY(TM) family of high-speed physical layer ICs. The company also announced today the first product from the new division, the Si5020 clock and data recovery IC, which is a key functional building block of high-speed optical data communications systems. The product, which is five times smaller than competing solutions, provides the essential clock and data recovery function for fiber optic communication products such as optical transceiver modules, digital cross-connects, and SONET/SDH/ATM routers, test equipment and regenerators.
July 10, 2000 Analog Devices Withdraws Lawsuit Against Silicon Laboratories
June 27, 2000 Silicon Laboratories To Acquire Krypton Isolation- Silicon DAA Technology Pioneers Join Forces
June 22, 2000 Silicon Laboratories Releases Statement Regarding Analog Devices’ Lawsuit
Analysts and others
7/18/00 Silicon Laboratories: Strong Quarter; $100 Price Target
Lehman Brothers Equity Research
27-Apr-00 09:30 -- 10:00 ET
Silicon Labs (SLAB) 75 -4 7/16: Lehman Brothers initiates coverage with a OUTPERFORM rating and price target of $100. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
26-Apr-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB) 79 7/16 -1 5/16: Reports Q1 earnings of $0.08 a share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.09, vs year-ago earnings of $0.03
23-Mar-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
IPO Pricings : Silicon Labs (SLAB) 3.2 mln at $ 31, well above range, Morgan Stanley as lead.
3/23/00 Rated a B+ IPO from the tough Francis Gaskins. High growth market and good management. INTC and MOT are customers. Proprietary technology. INTC used SLAB due to SLAB’s expertise in mixed signal technology. As computer interface with speech and vision, this interface will be required. CXNT is biggest competitor since they make the most modem chip and came out with there own DDA. Not sure if cheaper and more programmable than SLAB. As moving up in technology, don’t need separate DSP chips. Still need a DAA (pair of chips) on every computer. Only 15% of computer cycle time with a 500Mhz processor vs. 50% with the Pentium. CMOS saves million in testing costs. They have the skill set that gives this company the potential upside. Wireless chipset also going to be a new product. Japan is the first place to use 3G wireless since out of capacity. These have introduced a phase lock loop, it synchonizes the signal in wireless handsets.
Numbers
Revs 6.3M to 7.4M to 14.5M to 19.7M to 24.3m Jun00 per daily stocks.net
EPS 0.08a to 0.10a Jun00 per briefing.com
2-Week Low on 31-May-2000 $45.50
Recent Price $67.00
52-Week High on 29-Mar-2000 $105.75
Market Capitalization $3.17B
Shares Outstanding 47.2M
Float 3.20M
Price/Book (mrq*) 25.96
Price/Earnings (ttm) 189.80
Price/Sales (ttm) 39.81
Total Cash (mrq) $105.7M
Short Interest As of 10-July-2000
Shares Short 65.0K
Percent of Float 2.0%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 32.0K
ADI comparision
Market Capitalization $33.5B
Shares Outstanding 355.2M
Float 344.6M
Price/Book (mrq*) 17.92
Price/Earnings (ttm) 74.51
Price/Sales (ttm) 16.16
Insiders
19 buys and 3 sells, but Lockup has not expired so take with a grain of salt
11% institutional up from 1% previous quarter
Internet Post
illiquidity is why SLAB is so fun - up $30 in 3 days: 7/12/00 on SI
It is a contentious topic whether communications pure-plays will be insulated during the next supply-driven semiconductor industry downturn. Fundamentally, we are optimistic that the group's low capital intensity
and design-driven character will allow it to weather the storm better than other segments. Given the relative immaturity of the group, however, there is limited historical precedent. A few factors to consider: In the 1998 semiconductor industry downturn, most of the communications component pure-plays (e.g., Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC#, 1H) Broadcom (BRCM, 1S), PMC-Sierra (PMCS, 1H), and Vitesse (VTSS, 2H)) enjoyed tremendous sales and profit growth, despite the fact that the semiconductor industry
contracted by 8%. Indeed, until a series of exogenous (e.g., Russia's financial crisis and the collapse of LTCM) and communications industry events (e.g., the Ciena (CIEN, NR)-Tellabs (TLAB, 1M) debacle and earnings misses at Alcatel, Advanced Fiber Comm (AFCI, NR), and Reltec), the comm IC stocks outperformed the SOX index and the overall market. In other words, investors appeared to have differentiated the comm IC stocks from the general purpose chip stocks. In 1996, in a somewhat different
illustration, excess customer inventories were a negative factor faced by chip suppliers of all stripes. At the time, there were only two publicly traded broadband comm IC pure-plays, Level One Communications and Vitesse Semiconductor. Vitesse thrived in 1996, driven by the dawn of the optical networking market. Level One Communications, in contrast, suffered from four flat sequential sales quarters. Level One attributed the flatness to inventory corrections at customers (we believe Cisco (CSCO, 1M) and
Hewlett-Packard (HWP#, 1M) were two major culprits). The lesson of that divergence is that customer inventories must be closely watched. Currently, inventories at most communications OEMs appear relatively well-controlled, although we will be monitoring the data from the June quarter carefully.
Our point is that the historical track record is limited: 1998 provides a comforting view, while 1996 highlights a possible risk factor (i.e., customer inventories). On balance, we believe the communications IC
pure-plays such as AMCC, Broadcom, Centillium (CTLM#, 2S), Galileo Tech (GALT, 1S), PMC-Sierra, Silicon Labs (SLAB#, 2S), and Vitesse Semiconductor should remain fairly good performers should the
semiconductor seas get rough. 7/6/00 on GTR
tejek - SLAB revenue growth did not decrease Q2Q, EPS did, and that was because of increased spending on R&D and to acquire top talent. EPS last quarter was a 33% surprise, future long-term growth looks solid IMO. And, with the ADI suit dropped, the short-term looks bright as well.
I was not clear in my post. What I meant was that the rate of revenue growth YOY slowed from 400% to 200%. Certainly fast growth but also a steep drop in the rate. 6/27/00 on SI
``Hand-held computers represent a $2 billion market in 2000, growing at a compound annual rate of 27 percent,'' said Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts. ``Although only an estimated 25 percent of hand-helds shipping this year will be equipped with modems, a growing percentage will incorporate the functionality as both sizes and prices of hand-held-specific modems fall. Forward Concepts forecasts that the number of modem-equipped hand-helds will grow at a 58 percent compound annual growth rate, as over half of the projected 26 million units shipping in 2004 are expected to include modem functionality.''
6/13/00 on SI
Silicon Laboratories flew up 43, or 187 percent, to 66 Friday in its initial public offering after pricing its shares at $31 a share. 3/24/00 on SI
Chart
Recent gap up on June 15. Two big green days this quarter. Very low volume on recent rise. 7 out of 8 days are green but volume under 100K.
Link
silabs.com
Summary
A sharp rise due to the ADI run-up. This float is ridiculous. Institutions cannot buy without jacking the price up. $15 short term downside and $30 upside. ADI at its high and technically a better buy, but I cannot ascertain the technological superiority between the two. Message board at yahoo is verbal war and wasting space. RB is better but very little of substance. Only two analyst following it and 0.11 predicted for Sep00 and 0.12 for Dec00. Momentum players out of this as low volume attests. Gaskin vcall session best intelligence out there. Lehman is involves in this IPO so that is a negative since their KOREA fiasco.
ADI and SLAB not on the same FY. ADI Jul00 quarter had 21% increase in revs. SLAb had 23%. ADI pre-announces upside so I figure that SLAB is probably right behind too.
Another one to sleep on.
Jack |
| | Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (603) | 8/21/2000 10:43:42 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Portfolio up 0.67%, Dow up 0.30%, Nasdaq up 0.58%, S&P500 up 0.52%, Gilder up 0.1%, Meisler up 1.0%, J-Blimps up 1.8%, Fuel cells/Alt energy up 0.2%
NYSE Volume: 729 mln...Adv: 1325...Dec: 1477
Nasdaq Volume: 1.26 bln...Adv: 2031...Dec: 1995
Put/call 0.48 ratio (Range 0.42-0.48)
Sector Watch
Cyclicals (XLY) 25.53 -0.62 -2.37% WMT led index down by losing 3.69%, WMT is 22% of the index and carries the most weight. Sector below 200/50 day EMA stack and heading lower. The discount retail chain operator said in its weekly audio report that sales gains were coming in at the low end of the 4 to 6 percent range the company had expected. WMT HD F GM GPS DH LOW S BNI COST MAY SPLS FDX NSC JCP NKE UNP AMR MAS KSS TJM CSX FD GT KM LUV are the top companies in the index by weight of the 68 companies.
Paper ($FPP) 287.41 -8.33 -2.82% Entire sector red. No news to make it dive this much. Some speculation that the extensive forest fires in the US may drive basic material costs up. Sector still moving sideways between 50 and 200 day EMA. BCC BOW CDP FJ GP IP LPX MEA SSCC TIN W WLL WY are the companies in the index
Semis ($SOX) 1111.53 -23.27 -2.05%. Profitaking after runup. Barely holding above the 50 day EMA.
Portfolio Watch
NVS down 0.16%. ZURICH -- Novartis AG reported stronger-than-expected growth in first-half net income but company officials remained cautious about prospects for the full year, warning of a likely slowdown in drug-division sales during the current quarter. The Swiss pharmaceutical giant said first-half net was up 12% to 4.19 billion Swiss francs ($2.44 billion, 2.69 billion euros) from 3.74 billion francs a year earlier as sales jumped 15% to 18.96 billion francs from 16.49 billion francs. Favorable exchange-rate fluctuations accounted for nine percentage points of the reported sales increase, the company said. At the company's flagship pharmaceutical division, operating profit rose 22% in the first half, to 2.58 billion francs, on a 17% increase in revenue, to 8.48 billion francs. However, underlying sales growth was only 8%. Pressure from generic competition triggered sales declines for the company's two top-selling prescription medicines -- Cyclosporin, a drug used to prevent rejection of organ transplants, and Voltaren, a painkiller.
In an interview, Novartis's Chief Financial Officer Raymund Breu warned that the company still expects only mid-single digit growth in full-year drug-division sales -- slightly off the 8% underlying revenue growth in the first half. "We expect our pharmaceutical sales growth to underperform the market this year," Mr. Breu said, adding, "But sales will pick up with launches of new drugs -- putting us on a par with the market next year and exceeding overall market growth by 2002. What keeps us confident is that so far, we haven't had any big disappointments or major products which have dropped out of development."
MDT up 0.37%. MINNEAPOLIS, Aug. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- With its diversified business mix driving worldwide sales, Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE: MDT), today reported pre-charge, net earnings of $300.4 million for the first fiscal quarter which ended July 28, 2000, compared with $252.4 million in the same period a year ago, a growth of 19 percent. Earnings (diluted and pre-charge) were $0.25 per share, also representing 19 percent growth over the prior year's $0.21 per diluted share. After recording an $11.4 million non-recurring charge, net earnings were reduced to $289.0 million or $0.24 per diluted share.
(PHOTO: newscom.com )
Global revenues reached $1,309.9 million, a growth of 17.4 percent on a constant currency basis, compared with $1,133.2 million in the first quarter a year ago. The negative impact of foreign currency translation of $20 million reduced the reported quarterly revenue growth rate to 15.6 percent.
Quarterly earnings were spurred by the company's strong gross margins of nearly 75 percent and reflect a substantial investment in research and development of $136 million (10.4 percent of revenue). Medtronic cash balances grew by nearly $300 million in the quarter to over $900 million.
"Medtronic's fiscal year is off to a solid start with revenues and earnings results exceeding the company's stated growth objectives," said William W. George, Medtronic chairman and chief executive officer. "We are particularly pleased with the very strong performance in the Vascular and Neurological, Spinal and Ear, Nose and Throat (ENT) businesses, all growing in excess of 20 percent. We are additionally gratified by growth outside the United States to supplement our domestic momentum."
KEM up 4.25%. No news.
C up 2.84%. New52wkHI. No news.
Technical Buying Sends Crude-Oil Prices Higher
By PETER A. MCKAY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
NEW YORK -- Crude-oil prices jumped amid technical buying, and natural gas hit an all-time high at the New York Mercantile Exchange on hurricane and supply worries. Nearby September crude contracts rose 48 cents to $32.47 a barrel. Analysts said the buying picked up partly in anticipation of the futures' expiration Tuesday, and in part because the market is still anxious to get more crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But supply worries are perhaps even more acute in the nation's natural-gas market, which has reserves 15% below year-ago levels even though the summer is traditionally a period of low usage. Heading into this week's trading, those fundamentals had already sparked a quick 20% run-up in natural-gas futures since a summer low July 25. Then, facing possible damage to gas rigs by Tropical Storm Debby Monday, September futures leapt another 31.1 cents to $4.747 per million British thermal units. "We're probably headed toward a fairly serious energy crisis," said Derek S. Van Eck, president of the New York investment firm Van Exck Global. "Particularly if there's any sign of a cold winter, the crude or the natural gas could go even higher." Tuesday's crude run-up at first had been even more sharp, with September futures rising more than 90 cents in midafternoon before a late round of selling tempered the rally. Still, the close was crude oil's first above $32 a barrel since July 4.
Comment: A friend said propane heaters might be one alternative to natural gas heat. I’d have to check my fire insurance with my kids. I wish they sold solar power heaters at the local store.
Aug 21 6:06pm ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Center for Auto Safety (CAS) consumer group said on Monday it has filed a federal lawsuit seeking to force Ford Motor Co. (F.N) and Bridgestone/ Firestone (5108.T) to replace tires potentially linked to 62 traffic deaths.
The group, which filed the suit in the U.S. District Court in Washington D.C., wants the companies to replace all Firestone-brand ATX, ATX II and Wilderness tires regardless of their size and the plant where they were made. ``The center has filed this lawsuit to force the replacement of all ATX, ATX II and Wilderness tires because they represent one of the most lethal defects ever with 62 deaths known already,'' CAS Executive Director Clarence Ditlow said in a statement from the group.
CAS said the number of tires covered in its suit, the first by the group against a corporation since its founding in 1970, is at least twice as large as the 6.5 million tires that Japan's Bridgestone Corp. Firestone unit has already agreed to recall.
Firestone recalled the ATX, ATX II and Wilderness 15-inch tires on Aug. 9 and the U.S. Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating 62 traffic deaths linked to failures of the tires, mostly involving Ford Explorer sport utility vehicles.
Responding to news of the suit, Ford spokesman Jason Vines said: ``We're not going to let anything, I repeat, anything distract us from finding solutions for our customers. Period.'' CAS was originally founded by consumer advocate and Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader.
Comment: If the steelworkers pull a strike on Firestone it will be the death blow to this company. I’m waiting for the $100 per tire that these two will have to cough up for rebates. Winner in that will be GT and Michelin. Ford said it will stop production of it s Explorer SUV to make tires available. And GT only up 5% since the news. Such a deal.
drkoop.com (KOOP) 1 11/32 +3/32: Reports Q2 loss of $1.18 a share $0.01 worse than the Zacks' consensus of ($1.17). It is in a death spasm. Many clinging for hope of a buyout.
NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) 78 3/16 +1 3/16: Reports Q2 earnings of $0.28 a share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.26, vs year-ago earnings of $0.09. Revenues rose 118% to $170 mln; Should get a momentary pop. People wanted better.
NOPT ran up 17% to lead the Gilder portfolio. Yahooligans speculating on buyout rumor. Dangerous.
MNMD up 11.57% to set new high. Split 2 for 1 today. A j-blimp stock.
SATC down 8.73%. fuel cell stock down after seven green days.
Looking at TGT (Target) which set a new52wkLO. Went to buy the kids clothes there yesterday. Zipoffs, hippie pants, cargo pants, parachute pants, scenic print shirts and I had a flashback from the 1970’s. This store was busy for a Sunday night. May have to watch it for a while.
The FOMC is tomorrow. I think Stan S. hit it on the hit. On his site last night. Caution is still indicated early in the week because the "no rate hike scenario" has long been factored in...at least from the serious investor. wallstreetmonitor.com
This stuck in my head last night and he is right.
Stan also drew the triangle on the Nasdaq it really does show a major move coming. geocities.com
A kudo to Stan, he beat Gary B. Smith of the TSCM by 12 hours with this chart. Gary featured the triangle in his column today. Volume very low. I’m very defensive right now. Just want to see the Nasdaq breathe improve, not just the kings and highflyers.
This thread is #6 on the hot list at this moment. More due to SI losing the other posting activity than anything else. Maybe just too many moderated threads. I think there must be 100 messageboards now in cyberspace. Maybe the speculators have really gotten hit in the last July downturn and just faded away.
On a sad note, Spin informed me that Lucre from the Tmex thread recently died. He was honest and good for discussion on momentum stocks like ADSP in March.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (619) | 8/22/2000 11:28:17 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Portfolio up 1.19%, Dow up 0.54%, Nasdaq up 0.13%, S&P500 down 0.09%, Gilder up 1.2%, Meisler down 0.2%, J-Blimps down 0.1%, Fuel cells/Alt energy up 0.5%
NYSE Volume: 820 mln...Adv: 1435...Dec: 1329
Nasdaq Volume: 1.41 bln...Adv: 1989...Dec: 2009
Put/Call ratio 0.54 (Range 0.77 to 0.54) Most bearish in the morning.
Sector Watch
Biotechs ($BTK) 691.22 +17.43 +2.59% CEPH led index higher with 8% gain on no news. Maybe DNA news pulled sector up. Sector still holding above its 50 day EMA. Shares of Genentech (DNA: news, msgs) added 6 to 171. Earlier Tuesday, Robertson Stephens analyst Jay Silverman wrote favorably about Genentech's compound, Xolair, which is used to treat allergic asthma. Silverman said in a research note that South San Francisco-based Genentech will present encouraging patient testing data about Xolair at upcoming European medical conferences. DNA is not in the index per Nasdaq.
AMGN BTGC BGEN CRA CEPH CHIR CORR GENZ GILD HGSI IDPH IMNX MEDI MLNM ORG PDLI VRTX are the index.
Paper ($FPP) 281.28 -6.13 -2.13% All red today except SSCC. No news in the sector so drop is continuing. Bearish 200/50 stack and it may go below the 50 day EMA if no news soon.
BCC BOW CDP FJ GP IP LPX MEA SSCC TIN W WLL WY
Portfolio Watch
EPG up 1.21% - Corrosion Found In US Pipeline That Exploded, Killing 11 Dow Jones Newswires
CARLSBAD, N.M. (AP)--Investigators from the U.S.'s National Transportation Safety Board found pipeline corrosion - and a thinning of the pipe's wall - in a 22-foot section blown off the pipeline that killed 11 people Saturday. "Today we visibly observed a significant amount of corrosion at the bottom of the pipeline," agency spokesman Keith Holloway said Monday night. "The corrosion was along the pipe. Also we noticed some wall thinning, as well." An NTSB metallurgist was on the scene studying the pipe, Holloway said, "and we are going to take certain parts back to Washington (D.C.) to further examine."
Holloway declined to comment further on the corrosion. The NTSB still has found no cause for the blast, Holloway said. It will be months before a report is released, he said. The NTSB team expects to gather evidence from the scene through Wednesday. Investigators will analyze maintenance and corrosion inspection records, as well, he said. El Paso Natural Gas Co. defended its pipeline record in the wake of the explosion 25 miles south of Carlsbad, in southeastern New Mexico. Government records show El Paso Natural Gas Co.'s pipeline facilities in Arizona were cited for likely safety violations in 1997, The Albuquerque Tribune reported Monday. Similar questions were raised by the U.S. Office of Pipeline Safety in 1999. But John Somerhalder, president of El Paso Energy's pipeline group, said El Paso Natural Gas was able to show it was in compliance in both instances. Somerhalder has said the ruptured line was installed in 1950. The line was last checked Aug. 2, company spokeswoman Norma Dunn said. The pipe ruptured and exploded early Saturday, sending a fireball roaring into the campsite of two families. The blast left a crater 86 feet long and 20 feet deep and generated heat so intense that sand melted into glass and part of a bridge's concrete structure turned to powder. A dozen people from two families had been camped near that bridge over the Pecos River, 500 feet from the pipeline. The victims included five children and were identified as five members of one family and six from a second extended family.
Comment: A tragic accident. I remember watching Exxon Valdez and expecting the stock to plummet. It sat flat for months. This corrosion may indicate that having the largest pipeline in the country is not without flaws. I might take the 24% gain off the table tomorrow. Need to sleep on it. Maybe the upside will be limited. Negative PR certainly could shake the trees. Insurance will cover the lawsuits (none yet), but negative PR will be tough to avoid. Think Bridgestone.
NVS down 0.97% - Modified Corn a Threat To Butterfly, Study Says
By SCOTT KILMAN Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
A new study reinforces a previous finding that genetically modified corn is a threat to Monarch butterflies, increasing pressure on federal regulators to more tightly control its use. The new research came from Iowa State University and, following peer review, was published online by Oecologia, an ecology science journal. The research confirms some of the most important findings announced last year by Cornell University entomologist John E. Losey, whose study took much steam out of the U.S. biotech-planting boom. U.S. farmers reduced their plantings of genetically modified corn by roughly 13% in part because they feared that Cornell's Monarch study might prompt some food companies to stop using the novel crop. As butterflies go, the Monarch isn't as important to the biosystem as its more proficiently pollinating cousins. But the Monarch is a favorite of U.S. schoolchildren, which has made it a potent symbol for antibiotechnology groups. The colorful butterfly stages one of the most spectacular migrations in the insect world, flying from Midwest cornfields to its wintering grounds in Mexico. DuPont Co., Pharmacia Corp. and Novartis AG sell seed that is genetically modified to grow into a corn plant capable of making its own insecticide. The seed, which has been marketed since 1996, contains a gene from the common soil micro-organism Bacillus thuringiensis. The gene produces a toxin that kills caterpillars such as the European corn borer, which causes roughly $1 billion in damage annually by munching on cornfields. The biotechnology industry has pitched Bt corn as environmentally friendly, because the trait reduces the need for chemical sprays that can kill many beneficial insects, such as honeybees. But the Iowa State study, like Cornell's research before it, concludes that Bt corn plants also are lethal to at least one caterpillar that isn't any danger to corn. Monarch caterpillars, for example, exclusively feed on milkweed plants before they turn into butterflies. The studies show that toxic pollen from Bt cornfields can land on neighboring milkweed plants, where the caterpillars accidentally ingest them. The Iowa State study by entomologist John Obrycki and graduate student Laura Hansen-Jesse found that two-thirds of 156 Monarch caterpillars exposed to Bt corn pollen for 48 hours were dead on the fifth day of the experiment. A control group of Monarch caterpillars exposed to pollen from conventional corn all survived. In the earlier Cornell study, about half of the 25 Monarch caterpillars exposed to Bt corn pollen died in four days. The biotech sector hotly criticized the Cornell study, arguing that the Monarch caterpillars were exposed to far more Bt corn pollen than is likely under field conditions. The Iowa State researchers tried to compensate for this by studying the amount of Bt corn pollen that actually falls onto milkweed plants located near a cornfield, and using that level in their laboratory work. The Iowa State report is a blow to the crop-biotechnology industry because it found that Monarch caterpillars are killed by far smaller amounts of Bt corn pollen than were used in the Cornell study. The Iowa State study is being published at a particularly sensitive time. The licenses granted by the Environmental Protection Agency to sell Bt corn seed are slated to expire next year. As part of the reregistration process, the EPA has to consider whether Bt crops are damaging the ecology by harming nontarget insects. Stephen L. Johnson, an EPA deputy assistant administrator, said Monday that the Iowa State research is one of several reports on Monarch butterflies the federal agency plans to study. The EPA is slated to present its initial assessment on Bt corn in September. One possible response to the Monarch issue being considered by the EPA is requiring corn farmers to plant only conventional varieties on the perimeter of their fields. The Iowa State study found, among other things, that the wind doesn't carry corn pollen -- which is big by plant standards -- much beyond 11 yards. According to Dr. Obrycki, corn farmers could largely prevent Bt-bearing pollen from bothering Monarch caterpillars if they planted only conventional corn on their six outside rows -- a move that would cut into sales of Bt corn seed. Biotechnology officials said the Iowa State study contradicts the results of 20 studies they said show that Bt corn pollen has little impact on Monarch caterpillars. Among other things, they said the studies -- which have yet to be published -- show that pollen is shed by corn plants over too small a time period to bother most of the Monarch population. "What we know is that a whole bunch of research doesn't come to the same conclusion as Dr. Obrycki," said Rich Lotstein, a spokesman for Novartis. The Iowa State study looked at plants grown from two lines of Bt corn seed sold by Novartis, a pharmaceutical giant based in Switzerland. The study found that one Novartis variety, which is based on gene-transplant work known as event 176, creates particularly high levels of the Bt toxin in corn pollen. Novartis said it phasing out the use of the seed line that contains event 176 for competitive reasons.
Comment: Sigh. I’m seeing this type of article more and more. Both NVS and PHA have this genetic corn and are spinning the agri-business off. I think the reaction is overdone, but the effect on the insects could cause a wave of sympathy hurting the stocks. I will sell NVS and lock in the 18% gain and to minimize risk to having both pharmacueticals. Also NVS earning warning may add fuel to fire. PHA has the better pipeline. Drug sector is moving horizontally.
BRZE up 9.56% - 10:14 ET BreezeCOM (BRZE) 36 1/8 +2 1/8 (+6.25%): WDSLINC to purchase $4.8 mln of BreezeCOM wireless infrastructure equipment to expand its wireless initiative. WDSLINC is a Canadian wireless network and Internet service provider. Was this great timing or what.
C up 0.57%. New52wkHI. 15:07 ET Citigroup (C) 77 7/8 +1: CSFB analyst Michael Mayo, who made news when he downgraded several banks to SELL ratings back in May 1999, upgraded Citigroup this afternoon to a HOLD from a SELL; Mayo cited recent management moves for the upgrade. Also S&P Outlook profiled C as a new five star stock.
IRF up 4.33% – Banc of America Securities' Richard L. Whittington has raised 12-month price target for INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER CORPORATION (IRF) from $65 to $80. We're raising estimates based upon stronger than anticipated summertime bookings that both build backlog for the fall and early next year but which also convert into higher near-term results. New high-margin products are sharply advancing mix ASPs, margins continue their recent sharp gains and earnings growth is accelerating. As a result of all these positives, were raising our price target to $80 from $65.
CTB up 7.26%. Didn’t think this could move more than 2% in a day. Bridgestone mess has to be helping it.
Other stocks
08:24 ET Avici Systems (AVCI) 142: Lehman Brothers starting coverage of recent IPO with a NEUTRAL rating. Firm says while enthusiastic about Avici’s prospects, believes current share price levels may already reflect company’s market opportunity. Lehman served as a co-manager of company's IPO. Less-than-bullish rating has pushed stock 4 pts lower in pre-market.
Comment: I haven’t seen an IPO underwriter ever start coverage out with a Neutral. Tempting to go on the other side of this one, but 22M in revenues with 6B marketcap makes me pause.
09:59 ET Sports Authority (TSA) 2 9/16 +3/16 (+7.9%): Gaining ground after reporting Q2 earnings of $0.21 a share, 2 cents above the First Call mean, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.12.
Comment: I shop there for the shoe and pay quite a price to get those wide width shoes for my kids. This company has shut down unprofitable store about 2 years ago and the rest seem to be doing well. One to check out later.
DSLN +110% (IBM news).. This is beaten down but for a good reason. Stock has huge losses. Buying on the gap is one sure way to lose money. I would see to see the IBM contribution to the bottom line before investing in it.
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) 73 7/8 -4 5/16: In spite of beating the consensus estimate by $0.02, this designer of 3D graphics is trading lower this morning as it missed the whisper number of $0.31. However, the qtr was yet another strong one for NVDA as revenues came of $170.4 mln, were up 118% yoy and 15% sequentially. While 15% sequential growth may not sound fantastic, bear in mind that the July qtr is a seasonally slower qtr for the company....This company has been a Wall Street darling since going public in early 1999 and was trading at only $10 last November...From just $29 mln in 1997, Nvidia's revenue has surged to $544 mln LTM and at least one analyst expects $1 bln in revenue by 2002....The company has an armlock around the PC market as its chips are used in every major brand of PCs. Industry followers estimate NVDA's market share at roughly 33%...The PC market is growing strongly as analysts expect every new PC to be able to use 3-D graphics by next year. As a result, Web sites, games, and business and educational products all adding a third dimension to their products....Even with the brisk growth in PCs, the company is expanding its presence into laptops and Apple Macintoshes. Also, the company recently inked deals with Silicon Graphics to move into high-powered graphics workstations and NVDA will supply the graphics chips used in Microsoft's upcoming Xbox videogame console....Nvidia is well known for its innovation and product introductions - just listening to the conference call detailing all the new products in the pipeline validates this reputation. Also, it is known for getting its products to market ahead of schedule and ahead of competitors. The only caution we have for the stock is from a technical basis as the stock is flirting with falling through the 71/70 level which would not be viewed positively on a technical basis as it is a key support level. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com
Comment: Pricy despite good quarter. Looking for a $60 re-entry.
The FOMC had no rate increase as expected and issue concern for future inflationary pressures. The market sighed on the news.
Wife really likes TXN as she has dealt with the management from TX. It the 50% hi/lo range so tempting, but 50/10/200 stack is scary. Equal risk/reward. Looking for sub $60 entry.
I am tempted to go with an old favorite QUOT. Someone dumped 400K at the bid yesterday at the close so selling may be over with the 10% decline. Need to check the cash burn rate.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (605) | 8/23/2000 6:16:26 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) Is INRS ripping?
Rated a WATCH
Reason for DD
Passed the mid-summer screen
Business
IntraNet Solutions, Inc. is a provider of Web content management solutions for intranets, extranets and the Internet. The Company addresses an organization's complex needs in publishing, updating and maintaining its Web sites by providing a comprehensive solution that eliminates administrative bottlenecks and automatically publishes content from native formats directly to the Web. The Company's Xpedio Content Management Suite automatically converts source content into Web-based formats, which are then dynamically published to a secure Web site on an intranet, extranet or the Internet. The Intra.doc! product line is a cost-effective suite of Web-based software products for organizations requiring sophisticated content management without the robust publishing capabilities of Xpedio.
Competitors
The market for Web content management solutions is intensely competitive, subject to rapid technological change and significantly affected by new product introductions and other market activities of industry participants. We expect competition to persist and intensify in the future. Our primary source of competition is from Web content management products targeted at large Internet Web sites, including those offered by companies such as Documentum, Inc., Interwoven, Inc. and Vignette Corporation.
News
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 22, 2000--IntraNet Solutions®, Inc. (Nasdaq: INRS - news), a leading provider of end-to-end Web content management solutions for the enterprise, today announced the integration of its Outside In® viewing technology with Compaq's iPAQ Home Internet Appliance. Through the Outside In integration, iPAQ customers can view native files on Web sites or email attachments on their iPAQ Web terminal without running the native application.
07-Aug-00 08:16 ET
IntraNet Solutions (INRS) 40 5/8: Supplier of Web content management solutions in deal with Yahoo! (YHOO) to provide users of Yahoo!Mail with a new e-mail file attachment viewing feature that converts a user's e-mail attachment to HTML for viewing through the browser.
EDEN PRAIRIE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 27, 2000-- IntraNet Solutions®, Inc. (Nasdaq: INRS - news), a leading provider of Web content management software for the enterprise, announced today its financial results for the first quarter ended June 30, 2000 of fiscal year 2001.
First quarter revenues were $9.46 million, an increase of 113% over the $4.45 million reported for the same period last year and 26% sequentially over the $7.51 million reported in the prior quarter. Net income was $3.15 million, exclusive of a non-cash equity charge of $163,000, or earnings of $0.14 per diluted share, compared to $0.02 per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30, 1999. License revenues represented approximately 79% and service revenues 21% of the total gross revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2000.
``Our Xpedio Content Management software products continue to show extremely strong growth, accounting for over 77% of our license revenues just three quarters after our launch of the product. Our average license transaction size was about $164,000, representing a 134% increase over the prior year, reflecting our continued success in winning enterprise transactions.''
``We again had strong new customer adoption with over 35 new accounts, representing a broad range of industries with organizations such as the Australian Stock Exchange, the County of Fresno, National City Corporation, Oglethorpe Power, Praxair, Primerica Financial Services and the United Nations. We also continued our rollouts across large existing accounts such as Agilent, Cargill, Hewlett-Packard, IKON, Merrill Lynch and Qwest Communications.
10-Jul-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
Inso Corp (INSO) 5 1/4 -1/8: Company announces they have sold their Information Exchange division to IntraNet Solutions, Inc. (INRS) for approximately $55 mln cash;
In June 2000, IntraNet Solutions is included in the Russell 3000 Index, which measures the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization.
In April, IntraNet Solutions' cash position exceeds $150 million as underwriters of its public offering exercise their option to acquire an additional 520,000 shares of common stock at a price of $46.00 per share.
Analysts and others
11-Jul-00 13:00 -- 14:00 ET
IntraNet Solutions (INRS) 38 -1/2 : Wit SoundView reiterates BUY rating and price target of $52; believes that content management is one of hottest spaces around, and INRS is executing effectively.
27-Mar-00 11:00 -- 12:00 ET
IntraNet Solutions (INRS) 52 1/16 +2 1/16: Dain Rauscher Wessels upgrades to STRONG BUY from BUY and raises price target to $100 from $70 based on excellent business momentum and visibility.
15-Mar-00 10:00 -- 11:00 ET
IntraNet Solutions, Inc. (INRS) 50 7/16 -15/16: Wit SoundView initiates coverage with a BUY and price target of $100.
Numbers
Rev 3.5M to 4.6M to 5.8M to 7.5M to 9.5M Jun00 per dailycharts
EPS 0.01to (0.09) to 0.04 to 0.07 to 0.13 Jun00 per daily charts
EPS est for Sep is 0.09 per yahoo and 0.10 for Dec00. Note yahoo and PR has Jun earnings at 0.03.
52-Week Low on 26-Aug-1999 $6.875
Recent Price $43.563
52-Week High on 14-Mar-2000 $55.50
Market Capitalization $927.7M
Shares Outstanding 21.3M
Float 17.7M
Price/Book (mrq) 5.55
Price/Earnings (ttm) 372.33
Price/Sales (ttm) 32.56
Debt/Equity (mrq) 0
Total Cash (mrq) $154.5M As of June 30, 2000, we had $4.6 million in cash and equivalents, $149.8 million in short-term investments and $162.4 million in working capital.
Shares Short 461.0K
Percent of Float 2.6%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 336.0K
IWOV numbers
Market Capitalization $3.95B
Shares Outstanding 49.4M
Float 30.1M
Price/Book (mrq) 16.97
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 54.34
Insiders
2 sells and no buys in 2000
Hmmmm. Institutions dropped from 65% to 47%Jun00. Fidelity and Intel biggest sellers.
Internet Posts
Robert Olson was on CNBC this afternoon on power lunch, said that Xpedio 4.0 is shipping now, priced from $40,000 to $180,000. It generates more than 77 percent of the company's license revenue. 8/14/00 on yahoo
no revenues listed with yahoo deal? Thats the problem the street wants to know rev.#s not hype. 8/7/00 on Yahoo
These guys were a SHELL two yrs ago-Sports Equip 8/2/00 on RB
.03 profit from operations .08+ from income. might as well close down as they make more from putting money in cds at the bank. I think if interest rates go up we could have another blowout qtr. LOL 7/31/00 on yahoo
Oh and that secondary what a stupid move on mgmt's part. Now we have 150m raised at the market peak for aquisitions in this valley. Shame on them 7/28/00 on Yahoo
Well I've gotten one response so far to my analysis of INRS regarding Content Management. Anyone else care to help, or shoot it all down? (message 28287: Message 14066684 ) 7/19/00 on SI
I'm trying to apply the Gorilla Game to a very personal situation: my job. I'm trying to see if my new employer (Intranet Solutions, INRS) is in a royalty or gorilla game. I know there's an answer I'd prefer <g>, but I'd rather be shot down horribly and learn something than wear rose colored glasses. I'm also not necessarily looking for definitive answers (though that would be nice), but also how to go about finding the answers. The following is a first draft, and a starting point for further analysis. One final disclaimer: I shamelessly plugged my technology when I thought it relevant <g>.
A. Is there a discontinuous innovation or a proprietary open architecture?
Does this ( outsideinserver.com ) count as a discontinuous innovation? It allows dynamic, on-the-fly, templated, server side conversion of just about any file format into HTML (and I give you one guess what markup language is next). Just about any innovation is discontinuous to some degree, so where do you draw the line (especially in technology)?
B. Does it have the potential to grow into a mass market phenomenon, become a standard?
As a part of a larger, cohesive content management suite, I believe it does, along with this client-side viewing technology: ie.inso.com
C. Are there high barriers to entry and high switching costs?
Dealing with over 200 file formats along with the architecture to be flexible provides for a high barrier to entry for the file viewing/conversion side. Switching from one content management system to another is painful as far as I know.
D. Have value chains developed?
I was hoping someone could help me find more information to answer this one. I don't understand the value chains around content management very well (yet).
E. Have they crossed the chasm?
From the Broadvision analysis ( people.ne.mediaone.net ):
I believe that here the answer would be yes. I certainly would not expect companies like Sears and Wal-Mart to commit their e-commerce initiatives to unproven, risky technology. Furthermore, I think the fact that the company has taken its base product and created specialized versions for specific industries is reflective of a company operating in the bowling alley.
This is part of the Gorilla Game that I have trouble with when dealing with non-consumer directed products. I can much more understand that when my technophobic friends and family are buying their first cell-phones, that the mobile communication industry is well past the chasm. How can I get an insight into business software?
F. Existence of hypergrowth?
Again from the Broadvision analysis:
Revenue growth over the last year was 122%. Quite respectable, but not quite up to tornado standards. Still, it's hard to argue that e-commerce in general is in the midst of a huge tornado.
I work for Intranet Solutions, so I'd rather just point to the SEC filings and let them speak for themselves
7/19/00 on SI
If you look at anyone else in this market space INRS is in a better position both in product and finances than anyone. They just doubled their sales and marketing force with this aquisition as well as the r&d group. Many MANY! tech stocks out there have no earnings whatsoever? You cant look at P/E and pick a stock anymore. INRS has a very appealing story to institutional buyers who I would be willing to bet know a bit more than you.
7/11/00 on yahoo
one other thing. the division they purchased yesterday actually showed an eight percent decline from the previous year. It might be profitable, but was it worth 55 million? 7/11/00 on yahoo
If you look at the history of INSO as a company, they went through a pretty big scandal last year which devalued their stock tremendously. Previously, they were a high-on-the-hog technology company sucking up companies like they were going out of style. More recently, they have been peddling off these same companies to stay afloat. Interestingly enough, they have a Web Content Management System called Dynabase...
As for the technology mentioned in the press release, check out the INSO site. Looks like viewing technology to facilitate dynamic content conversion to HTML. Says they can support "dynamic conversion" of over 250 file formats... My guess is that this will further expand the Content Viewing capabilities of the core Xpedio line to make its content support more robust. Sounds like it will only make the company stronger in their offerings! 6/27/00 on yahoo
INRS is the only co. that offers front-end and back-end solutions in content management and soon they're going to support Linux apps as well. 6/21/00 on SI
INRS must have been lost in the shuffle. Again, apologies to everyone who gives me picks that I just don't have time to DD. 1/25/00 on SI
Chart
Ran from May low of $q18 to mid$40’s where it consolidating. Many green days so buyers are accumulating. Nice 10/50/200 stack and separation.
Link
Summary
I really hate the symbol. Bouts of dylexsia hit me with this stock. I started Dding IRSN first. 0.03 earnings in recent quarter per PR is not the company I thought it was so a rated a WATCH. From a 1997 10Q - On July 31, 1996, the Company, then named MacGregor Sports and Fitness, Inc. ("MSF") and IntraNet Integration Group, Inc.("IIGI," formerly known as Technical Publishing Solutions, Inc. ("TPSI"), founded in 1990) completed a reorganization (the "Merger"), pursuant to which IIGI became a wholly-owned subsidiary of MSF.
Alot of noise on INRS, but INTC and Fidelity bailing are not signs of strength. Chart is bullish, but stock should have declined after earnings.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who started this subject | 8/23/2000 7:07:24 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) Is NRG energetic?
Rated a WATCH
Reason for DD
Passed the mid-summer screen
Business
NRG Energy Inc. is a participant in the independent power generation industry. The Company is principally engaged in the acquisition, development, operations and maintenance of and ownership of power generation facilities. The power generation facilities in which the Company had interests (including those under construction) as of December 31, 1999, have a total design capacity of 20,728 megawatts (MW), of which the Company has or will have total or shared operational responsibility for 14,782 MW, and net ownership of, or leasehold interests in, 10,990 MW
Northern States Power will hold approximately 98% of the total voting power of our common stock and our class A common stock following this offering
Competitors
The independent power industry is characterized by numerous strong and capable competitors, some of which may have more extensive operating experience, more extensive experience in the acquisition and development of power generation facilities, larger staffs or greater financial resources than we do.
News
24-Jul-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
NRG Energy (NRG) 20 11/16 -3/16: Company announces the acquisition of First State Power Management, Inc. NRG will purchase First State Power Management from Statoil Energy, Inc. in a stock deal.
Analysts and others
07-Jul-00 14:00 -- 15:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 18 3/16 +1/4: Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a MARKET OUTPERFORM; calls company a pure play in the emerging power growth universe; Goldman participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
13-Jun-00 15:00 -- 16:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 18 1/16 -1/16: Banc of America Sec initiates coverage with a BUY rating and price target of $23; says NRG is pursuing aggressive acquisition strategy, taking over utility power plants and increasing their efficiency by superior operations or repowering them into natural gas-fired plants; also NRG is developing greenfield power projects to complement its acquisition strategy; Banc of America Sec participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
12-Jun-00 12:00 -- 13:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 18 1/16 +3/16: Mrgn Stnly Dn Wttr initiates coverage with a OUTPERFORM rating and price target of $22. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
07-Jun-00 14:00 -- 15:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 17 13/16 +5/8: Lehman Brothers initiates coverage with a BUY. Lehman Brothers participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
06-Jun-00 BEFORE THE OPEN
NRG Energy (NRG) 16 15/16: Merrill Lynch initiates coverage with a NT BUY/LT BUY rating and price target of $22; cites well-balanced project portfolio, backlogged earnings growth target of at least 25%, and a management team with a proven track record.
05-Jun-00 12:00 -- 13:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 17 -1/4: -- Update -- CSFB initiates coverage with a BUY rating and price target of $25. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
05-Jun-00 11:00 -- 12:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 16 15/16 -5/16: -- Update -- Salomon Smth Brny initiates coverage with a BUY rating and price target of $23. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
05-Jun-00 09:30 -- 10:00 ET
NRG Energy (NRG) 16 7/8 -3/8: ABN AMRO initiates coverage with a BUY rating and price target of $24. ABN AMRO was an underwriter on NRG's recent IPO.
Numbers
Rev 66.0M Jun99 to 332.7M to 473.8M Jun00
EPS 0.02 Jun99 to 0.06 to 0.28 Jun00
0.34 EPS predicted for Sep00 and 0.19 for Dec00
52-Week Low on 1-June-2000 $16.063
Recent Price $25.625
52-Week High on 15-Aug-2000 $27.50
Market Capitalization $4.61B
Shares Outstanding 180.0M
Float 28.2M
Price/Book (mrq) 3.39
Price/Earnings (ttm) 35.79
Price/Sales (ttm) 3.13
Debt/Equity (mrq) 2.66
Total Cash (mrq) $70.9M
Short Interest As of 8-Aug-2000 Shares Short 370.0K
Percent of Float 1.3%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 122.0K
Insiders
24 buys in 2000, no sells. Many around $15-16.
65% institutional with Fidelity being #1
Internet Posts
Pooling rules prevent NSP from distributing any more of the shares of NRG. The rest of the NRG shares
have to be held by NSP for at least two years following NSP’s merger with New Century Energies (NCE-$
31.94, rated Neutral)[3], due to the rules for using pooling-of-interest accounting for the merger.
Therefore, NRG, despite having attractive fundamentals, will be a more thinly traded stock than
SEI. Both NRG and SEI have acquired generating capacity in regions of the U.S. that are expected to experience power shortages this summer. Both have power plants in the Northeast and MidAtlantic regions, and in California. 8/20/00
only 28.2 million NRG shares are held by the public, the rest is held by NSP. So the public float on
NRG is just about $480 million. 8/20/00 on yahoo
With deregulation, the most acquisitive and aggressive are now high-growth companies with P/E's of 40-60 and this trend is only in the first or second inning. Aside from REI, here are some other leaders in the "new-age" energy sector: Dynergy(DYN), Peco(PE), Enron(ENE), Duke Energy(DUK), AES Corp(AES), Calpine(CPN), NRG Energy(NRG), and Dominion Resources(DN). I have bought a "basket" of these stocks and will be adding to these holdings over the next 6-12 months. If we have a cold winter in the US this year, you will see the prices of these stocks take off. The US is way behind -- it has nowhere near the generating capacity to meet our power needs, and the rate of construction of new capacity is not nearly adequate. The energy consolidators listed above will be able to sell energy more cheaply than the old legacy power plants and companies on the free market and will prosper disproportionately. 8/13/00 on SI
The price of this issue has risen from 18 to 24; big price spike in mid-late July. My guess is that some funds are taking large positions (see chart and volumes biz.yahoo.com with money flows going into gas and electric mutual funds that is pushing up this stock. It has strong growth prospects and looks great long term. 8/9/00
1. merchant plants make most of their profit during periods of high electricity prices - typically the summer in the US.
2. higher prices continue this summer, however without enormous spikes as result of absence of extended heat spell.
3. an enormous amount of capacity will come on line over the next few years to meet some of the demand. most of this will be provide by the merchant plant/ipps - either the pure plays already mentioned or their respective arms of utilities - eg DUK and REI.
4. of the pure plays, CPN is fastest growing, NRG offers value (p/e to growth ratio) based on projected earnings 7/15/00 on SI
NRG - will try to do more analysis this weekend. Its an independent power producer/merchant plant developer selling for about $200/kw, about half of that of its peers. Growing at about 25%, relatively new IPO, undiscovered. 7/1/00 on SI
Chart
Big Ipo day volume. Steady climb up.
Summary
Good company in a strong sector. IDA will stay. NRG will wait since it passed all targets and ran from $16 to $26. Came out in the late May which was tough for any IPO. PE seems high.
Jack |
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