| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (605) | 8/20/2000 3:47:16 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | B) Life is a BRZE
Rated a BUY
Business
BreeezeCom is a leading developer and manufacturer of wireless access products used worldwide by service providers and private enterprises. Incorporating internally developed core technologies optimized for high-speed data, most products use spread spectrum radio transmission, digital signal processing and wireless packet switching technology. BreezeCom has three product lines: BreezeACCESS for service providers in licensed and unlicensed frequency bands, BreezeNET for wireless campus networks in unlicensed bands and BreezeLINK for point-to-point T1/E1 connectivity.
BreezeCOM has over 300 employees worldwide, over 30% of which are in R&D. BreezeCOM's corporate headquarters are based in Tel-Aviv Israel, and its North and South America Headquarters located in Carlsbad, CA. The company is also present in the UK, France, Canada, Uruguay, Hong Kong, China, Russia and Romania. BreezeCOM has developed an extensive distribution network, which includes over 300 partners and distributors in more than 60 countries worldwide.
Competitors
WAVC, NTRO
News
TEL AVIV, Israel & CARLSBAD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 31, 2000--
- $24.5 Million Revenues, 139% Year-Over-Year Increase
- 57% Sequential Revenue Growth
- $2.6 Million Net Income
BreezeCOM Ltd. (NASDAQ: BRZE), a leading developer and manufacturer of broadband wireless access products, today announced record revenues for the second quarter ended June 30, 2000, its first profitable quarter.
Revenues for the second quarter were $24.5 million, a 139 percent increase over revenues of $10.3 million reported in the second quarter of 1999, and a 57 percent increase over first quarter 2000 revenues of $15.6 million. Net operating income for the second quarter of 2000 was $807,000, compared with an operating loss of $(969,000) in the same period in 1999, and a loss of $(414,000) in the first quarter of 2000. The Company reported net income of $2.6 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $(1.5 million), or $(0.14) per diluted share, in the second quarter of 1999, and a net loss of $(256,000), or $(0.01) per share, for the first quarter of 2000.
31-Jul-00 BEFORE THE OPEN
BreezeCOM (BRZE) 31 7/8: Reports Q2 earnings of $0.08 a share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.02; revenues rose 138.5% to $24.50 mln from a year-ago of $10.27 mln;
14-Jul-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
BreezeCOM (BRZE) 46 +5 1/2: -- Update -- Company files to offer 4.3 mln shares in a secondary offering.
14-Jul-00 14:00 -- 15:00 ET
BreezeCOM (BRZE) 45 1/4 +4 3/4: Announces it expects Q2 sales of $24.5 mln vs $10.3 mln in the year-ago period; expects earnings of $2.5 mln vs a net loss of $1.5 mln; First Call estimate is $0.02 per share;
23-Mar-00 13:34 ET
Breezecom (BRZE) 40 1/2 +20 1/2: --Update-- IPO opens for trading.
Analysts and Others
Midcoast Wireless is a division of Rockland, Maine Internet Service Provider Midcoast Internet Solutions. The parent company delivers the usual dialup services as well as ISDN (although since most people who are close enough to a phone-switching office for ISDN are also close enough for ADSL, which is less expensive and many times faster, one imagines ISDN will go away).
What Midcoast Wireless is offering is, essentially, a wireless LAN on a broader scale. You put an Ethernet card in your computer, connect it to a BreezeCom radio transmitter, and that communicates with one of eight antenna or repeater broadcast sites. They're in Camden, Owl's Head, Rockport, and Union. Towns close by, like Thomaston, are also served. Monthly costs can be much less than T1 and the company claims performance similar to other broadband methods. So you get a fast connection that requires no wiring and no additional costs (phone lines, etc.). And since BreezeCom made its name developing communication systems to keep tanks in the Israeli army connected during battle, you know reliability should be acceptable.
digitalmass.com
A typical business customer sees the payback vs. a leased line in a matter of three to six months. MIS has found that most customers who think they need a T1 really only need the speed of that T1. Wireless access provides all the advantages of increased speed without having to pay the high price of dedicated service.
Using BreezeCOM’s wireless LAN technology has also enabled MIS to generate additional savings in its own operation. It has replaced several internal leased lines with wireless links, reducing its monthly phone bills by literally thousands of dollars, while at the same time increasing system reliability. MIS envisions its entire internal network will one day be wireless. The company believes it can “cut the cord” and create redundant wireless links within its network for less cost than what it is currently paying for leased lines.
comnews.com
(Article on competitor, but highlights technology)
"For outdoor shows it is wonderful [since] the alternative is to string cable, and that is not practical when you have a large audience," Muth said. Recently, for example, IcebergMedia organized a Webcast of a Red Hot Chili Peppers show from downtown Toronto. To string cable would have been time-consuming and dangerous with so many people walking around, he said.
So Muth rigged up the Internet connection for his Webcast event by positioning the wireless bridges used by the WaveRider LMS product. It is a line-of-sight solution, which means the devices have to have a clear path to communicate. But, Muth said, it takes a minute to set up and works in good weather or bad.
Like Leyva, Muth stumbled across the wireless networking option when his firm was moving to a new building and discovered it could not get other types of broadband Internet access in the new digs for at least three months. To solve that dilemma, the company connected to its previous location through LMS. It was a roundabout way to get speedy access to the Net, but it worked. As a result of his experience, Muth is constantly thinking about how he can use wireless technology to expand his business.
For Muth's vision to come true, broadband wireless-based services will have to become more widely available. But that's beginning to happen as carriers start building out their networks and wireless ISPs (Internet service providers) jump on board. One such wireless ISP, North Rock Communications Ltd., in Hamilton, Bermuda, began offering customers Internet access using the WaveRider LMS equipment out of necessity. zdnet.com.
Wireless Internet - It's A Breeze
by Dale Baker back
Everywhere you go, you hear the buzz – wireless Internet is taking the world by storm. The Europeans have been sending E-mail from their hand-held Nokia and Ericsson phones for more than a year, while Palm Pilots and Research In Motion’s (Nasdaq: RIMM) Blackberry portables are going fully interactive in the US. All the major wireless players are jumping on board.
How you can profit from the trend? Start with a little known Israeli company called BreezeCOM (Nasdaq: BRZE). BreezeCom IPO’ed on March 23 when the tech market was just starting to crumble. The drop from the high 40’s to a low under 20 didn’t win BRZE too many fans. Too bad, because BRZE is exactly the kind of small cap tech stock you want to own in today’s rebounding market. How would you like to buy a successful company for $37 per share with the potential to go up 50-100%? Would you like it even better if you knew that insiders still own 92% of the stock and mutual funds already own more than half the 2 million shares sold in the IPO?
That’s a recipe for a vertical liftoff if BRZE continues to execute. BRZE sells a variety of wireless systems like their BreezeNET line, which allows corporations to set up wireless LANs. According to IDC, BRZE already dominates the building-to-building wireless bridging market for networks with a 49% share. More important, the new BreezeACCESS family lets ISP’s offer instant wireless access to their customers. How many ISP’s worldwide will need to add wireless service in the next few years? Thousands.
A quick look at some of BreezeCOM’s customers shows how wide their appeal has become – Broadlink, CAIS Internet, Tele2 in the UK, WiBand Communications in Canada and Lina.Net in Iceland. One nationwide US ISP followed their initial $12 million order with another $6.7 million order for additional BreezeCOM equipment. An ISP owner in Connecticut had nothing but praise for the BreezeCOM equipment he is currently deploying. “It is good equipment…about the best out there for ISP’s. Every ISP I talk to that uses them, speaks very highly of not just the products, but also the BreezeCOM engineers that stand behind the product. Outstanding service.” BRZE recently introduced the MMDS (Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Services) version of its BreezeACCESS line. Users get up to 3Mbps speeds for data and voice. The MMDS line uses both Time Division Duplex (TDD) and Frequency Hopping – Code Division Multiple Access (FH-CDMA) to make the most of the available spectrum.
This is state of the art stuff. One conversation can bounce around multiple channels as the data load requires, without the user ever noticing. A recent report by the Phillips Group noted that most big companies contemplating a wireless network are insisting on VOIP (Voice Over Internet Protocol), essentially a blend of data and voice where a traditional conversation is reduced to digital packets and switched through the network like regular Internet transmissions, instead of tying up a single voice circuit for the whole conversation. The company gets mobile voice communications and data traffic on the same network. Thanks to BreezeACCESS, that is.
The system is also scalable in size and quality of service. BreezeACCESS offers Quality of Service prioritizing for voice traffic over data packets and Toll Quality Telephony based on the H.323 Voice over IP protocol. ISP’s can start small if they like, then adding premium quality services without having to revamp their whole network. OK, BRZE has terrific products and a growing list of satisfied customers. But is this company another money-losing dot.com wannabe with huge losses and no hopes of turning a profit for years? Nope. The three analysts with Strong Buy ratings on the stock project profitability this year. Last quarter, BRZE beat estimates by .03 and only lost a penny. Dig further and you find that 90% of the operating expenses (after cost of sales) were devoted to R&D and marketing. General administrative overhead was only 9% of the gross profit and 5% of gross revenues. Toss in the $4.86 per share in cash and no debt and you have a sterling balance sheet for a young tech company. First quarter sales came in at $15 million, yielding an annualized price-sales ratio of about 15 for a company that grew revenues 46% year over year and 22% sequentially. If BRZE maintains 20% sequential growth, annual revenue would come in at $80 million for a current PS ratio of only 10.
PSINet (Nasdaq: PSIX) also believes in BRZE evidenced by their direct investment in the BRZE IPO. PSIX has more than 50,000 business customers in the aerospace, finance, communications, computer data processing and related industries, government agencies and educational and research institutions, as well as other Internet service providers. Guess which wireless solutions PSIX will recommend to all those customers? BreezeACCESS and BreezeNET. CEO Michael Rothenberg noted that most of BRZE’s growth is coming from the ISP customers who contribute 50% of the company’s revenues. Overall, outdoor point-to-multipoint fixed installations make up 80% of business while wireless LANs for enterprises make up 20%. Often, CEO statements are full of hype. But there is plenty of proof to back up Rothenberg’s claims. “With our strong financial position, leading-edge technology and wide product offerings, we believe that BreezeCOM will consolidate its leadership position in the broadband wireless access market.” I couldn’t agree more. I expect BRZE to double from its current price in the next twelve months.
streetsideinvestor.com
16-Jun-00 USB Piper Jaffray Reiterated - Strong Buy
16-May-00 USB Piper Jaffray Reiterated - Strong Buy 03-May-00 USB Piper Jaffray Reiterated - Strong Buy 25-Apr-00 USB Piper Jaffray Reiterated - Strong Buy
17-Apr-00 USB Piper Jaffray Initiated - Strong Buy
17-Apr-00 11:00 -- 12:00 ET
BreezeCOM (BRZE) 23 1/8 -1 7/8: -- Update -- Dain Rauscher Wessels initiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and price target of $41. Breezecom Ltd. is a leader in low-cost, low frequency point to multipoint solutions. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
17-Apr-00 11:00 -- 12:00 ET
BreezeCOM (BRZE) 23 3/8 -1 5/8 : CIBC Wrld Mkts initiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and price target of $50. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
Numbers
Rev 12.7M to 15.6M to 24.5M Jun00 per dailystocks
EPS (0.05) to (0.01) to 0.08 per breifing.com Jun00
52-Week Low on 24-Apr-2000 $19.25
Recent Price $32.313
52-Week High on 18-July-2000 $53.125
Market Capitalization $815.6M
Shares Outstanding 25.2M
Float 2.00M
Price/Book (mrq*) 6.29
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 9.26
Debt/Equity (mrq*) 0
Total Cash (mrq) $108.6M
Short Interest As of 10-July-2000
Shares Short 168.0K
Percent of Float 8.4%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 64.0K
Insiders
One buy and no sells, but this IPO lockup hasn’t occurred.
Institutions own 10% up from 3% the prior quarter.
Internet posts
I grow weary of talking about how much I love these last mile broarband wireless infrastrucure plays....but I do - I'm stymied that they are sitting where they are...from the recent IPO's to BRZE to the former DMIC I like them all - Honestly I haven't seen a more blatently opportune time to but a sector in ages.
The weird thing is that the Nokia and handset sell-off precipitated the sell-off on the group.....but they are completely UNRELATED - If I wasn't a short term trader, I'd buy a little of the whole group and just sit on them for a year or two. 8/16/00 on SI
First NTRO and BRZE's products do not overlap today because NTRO's products operate in the frequency bands of 10GHz and above, whilst BRZE's operate in the bands of 4GHz and below. This makes BRZE's per user cost today significantly lower so for the same revenue they have sold a lot more kit.
Secondly NTRO are only one actor not the first mover. I don't believe they have reported a real sale in Europe yet, whilst Alcatel have announced deals worth $300 mln in the last month, a high proportion of which is actually rebadged BRZE.
Third, Alcatel and I believe Ericsson have gone the BRZE route.
7/31/00 on Yahoo
anyone know why brze is valued at 1/3 the price of ntro.. ??? we have more revenue .. positive earnings.. I know a couple of fund managers have really pushed ntro. Seems odd they haven't done the same with brze.. I just bought more breeze at 34. couldnt resist.. 7/31/00 on Yahoo
Sequential revenue growth will be 66%, which translates into annualized growth of 759%.
The company has scalable model: loss of 200k on revenues of 15 mln and net income of 2.5 mln on revenues of 25 mln.
Scalable means, that earnings should grow fasted than revenues. It means that the company might as well double its net income by the next quarter.
For those who are bitching about the secondary --- need I remind you that JNPR had a secondary too. PHCM had one. FLSH had one.
the fact that insiders are selling in the seconday in the orderly manner means the following:
1. they won't be selling when lock up expires
2. underwriters have no problems placing the shares since all the secondaries are pre-subscribed.
7/30/00 on Yahoo
I've been seeing the excitement around Wi-LAN's 30 Mbps but if you take a deeper look into it you see the following:
Wi-LAN's 30 Mbps is nada, since it uses 10 MHz of band.
The thing is, wireless equipment needs to have a good spectral efficiency (i.e., bits/sec/Hz).
Wi-LAN only now introduces (and i'm not sure the product is avaliable) 30 Mbps in 10 MHz which gives 3 bits/sec/Hz.
BRZE has for more then 4 years in the market (BreezeNET) 3 Mbps in 1 MHz which gives, guess what, 3 bits/sec/Hz.
BRZE is speaking about OFDM and is probably planning a much better OFDM solution then what Wi-LAN is doing.
7/28/00 on yahoo
Secondary Priced @$35 yesterday. I don't know why it hasn't been announced. 7/28/00 on yahoo
Perhaps one of the best apples to apples comparisons can be done with WAVC.
ADAP, Wi-LAN, and many others just build part of the pieces. Breezecom and WaveRider offer complete lines of solutions to ISPs and businesses. Breezecom and WaveRider both offer LAN connectivity to the internet.
Cisco doesn't have a solution on the market yet, other than its wireless LANs, although its pushing to get some products out.
Lucent's Orinoco solution is basically a mobile type solution, where people can get internet access while roaming within a small covered area, like a university.
On earnings, nobody else preannounced that earnings would come in 400% above estimates. :)
7/27/00 on yahoo
Wi-LAN does 32 Mbps - NOW.
Breezecom does only 11Mbps..
If you are into BRZE you are buying a future consumer of WIN.TO's patented technology - end of story
7/21/00 on yahoo
Somebody please explain why current shareholders should not be extremely disappointed in the latest news regarding the follow-on offering... I'm not techinical enough to understand all the details, but it seems like it's money out of our respective pockets? 7/14/00 on RB
While Breezecom sells in this market, they outsource the hardware, as do many of the other players in the list. The article is also the result of lab testing, as opposed to real world field testing, and is specifically addressing the LAN requirement of the hardware, and the focus of BreezeCOM is in the ISP/Last Mile area. It is regrettable that they chose to not test these in real world conditions, as their results would have likely been extremely different, especially in the presense of any other DSSS hardware.
In summary, while the review is OK for the LAN segment, it has little to nothing to do with the the existing and future market for BreezeCOM. Over 1000 ISPs use BreezeCOM gear, and most of them are using the FHSS products, not the DSSS units. 7/11/00 on yahoo
BRZE sells a variety of wireless systems like their BreezeNET line, which allows corporations to set up wireless LANs. According to IDC, BRZE already dominates the building-to-building wireless bridging market for networks with a 49% share. More important, the new BreezeACCESS family lets ISP’s offer instant wireless access to their customers. How many ISP’s worldwide will need to add wireless service in the next few years? Thousands. 49% of the wireless radio building to building market. And wireless has already begun to take off like a rocket. The next two years for wireless is going to be amazing! 7/5/00 on RB
Breezecom is on fire - 23% sequential revenue growth last quarter, MAKING MONEY, an IPO that was oversubscribed by 15 times. 6/27/00 on RB
"What would keep aironet/csco from developing FHSS and stomping all over BRZE with their distribution/money/service/etc.?" Nothing, except Cisco doesn't "develop"anything anymore.
They just buy the companies that make the technology they want. So your worry should be "what do we do if Cisco decides to come along and throw money at us until we are drowning and have to beg them to please stop shoveling the cash higher and higher...". 6/26/00 on yahoo
My ISP in rural Illinois is using brze products for wireless also. If we wait for the phone company to bring us high speed it will be a very long wait! 6/22/00
I did look into Waveriders products about 6 months ago. This was before they even had their products available for sale. I understand that they are going to release something this quarter, or may have already released it. Their technology uses Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS), whereas the new Breezecom gear uses Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum (FHSS).
We have pretty much decided to use the FHSS gear because of its robustness in areas where their could be a lot of interference and its high level of security. 3/31/00 on SI
Chart
Two biggest day in the last three months were red, Tracks the Nasdaq fairly well. Went from $52 to $32 in two weeks of July. Very tight stack 50/200/10.
breezecom.com
Summary
A hidden gem. A profitable wireless tech company. 138% rev increase per breifing,com, 100 for present P/E so it not overpriced Small float make this difficult to hold when runups occur. Some silly knocks on owning stocks from Israel. Owned ECIL in the early 1990’s and did well. Just have to pay the foreign tax on Israel stocks. Downside is $10 and upside is $20 short term by next quarter. A must through earnings, because an upside will send it higher. Momentum players left in the tech drop in July so Monday is good as any for an entry. Better sales, marketcap, and balance sheet than for WAVC.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (554) | 8/20/2000 10:35:13 PM | | From: Mr. Big | | | | Hey Jack! Read yours and Tokyo Jasons posts tonite and found them interesting as it brought back some fond memories of the past.
Unfortunately SI has not kept up with technology and many of those so called Gurus (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=11768354) have graduated to bigger and better things. (Well Anthony is in jail so I guess we have all not all moved ahead).
Best wishes to all and happy trading.
Mr. Big
As for Big I'm home trading drinking a bud and watching CNBC. WASSSSUPPP! |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (606) | 8/20/2000 10:42:51 PM | | From: Steve168 | | | | Jack, It is great to see your thread and posting. I was looking for Q to Q growth stocks and happen to find this thread. I am happy to find your posting are pretty insightful.
I think BRZE is with good potential and will probably enter long position after this secondary effect, hopefully lower price.
I hold two stocks with good Q to Q growth.
PHTN is a manufacturer of testing/repairing equipment used in FPD(Flat Panel Display) manufacturing. For the past nine months, PHTN grew revenue 90% and have earning of 9M vs. $0.29M. It has a big order backlog. I was lucky holding heavily on this at single digits and added more last week around 46-47.
FFIV F5 Networks, Inc. is one of the leading providers of integrated Internet traffic and content management solutions designed to improve the availability and performance of mission-critical Internet-based servers and applications. The Company's products monitor and manage local and geographically dispersed servers and intelligently direct traffic to the server best able to handle a user's request. For the nine months ended 6/30/00, revenues totaled $72 million, up from $14.1 million. Net income totaled $12.2 million vs. a loss of $6.7 million.
FFIV was crashed from 160 to 30s in half year. Amazingly it has a 40% short position as of latest month. Most of them are entered around 35-55 range. I think the short squezze will only help FFIV go up faster once it started.
Please let me know your opinion.
Regards,
Steve |
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| To: Mr. Big who wrote (607) | 8/20/2000 10:44:31 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Hi Big, I still got that long list on those stocks (set new high after May) you mentioned a while ago. If we ever do get a massive correction again, that list will come handy.
it brought back some fond memories of the past.
It was a great time. Best year ever for me investing.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (610) | 8/20/2000 10:54:02 PM | | From: Mr. Big | | | | I have to admit that 1999 was a very Big year for most traders. If your able to change with the market you can reap those same rewards. Watch SONS for a drop this week as it is retracing its recent high to 280. 3-1 stock split announced. You might find an attractive entry.
As for me I've been strictly daytrading (going flat most nites - no more Big's late day Bag Buys) since March. This strategy has allowed me to be profitable every month during this Naz 40% retracment. |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (605) | 8/20/2000 11:08:20 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) Is SSTI a flash in the pan?
Rated a Watch
Reason for DD
Passed the Mid-summer screen test
Business
Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. is a supplier of flash memory semiconductor devices for the digital consumer, networking, wireless communication and Internet computing markets. Flash memory is nonvolatile memory that does not lose data when the power source is removed and is capable of electrically erasing selected blocks of data. The Company offers over 40 products based on its SuperFlash design and manufacturing process technology. The Company also offers mass storage products that are used for storing images, music and other data in devices such as digital cameras and MP3 players. The Company licenses its SuperFlash technology to leading semiconductor companies including Analog Devices, ATMI, IBM, ISD, Motorola, Samsung, Sanyo, Seiko-Epson and TSMC to embed in semiconductor devices that integrate flash memory with other functions on a single chip.
Competitors
AMD, INTC, SNE
News
8/3/2000 SSTI responds to concerns--1:50 pm - By Chris Kraeuter
Silicon Storage Technology (SSTI: news, msgs) responded to concerns that a slowdown in cellular comonents will negatively affect its business. Wednesday evening Lehman Bros. analyst Tim Luke said Motorola (MOT: news, msgs) will be cutting back its handset component consumption during the second half of the year (See 8:40 item). According to a statement, SST says less than 2 percent of its second quarter revenue comes from products sold in the cellular handset industry. "We do not expect that any slowdown in the cellular components market would impact SST in a material way. We continue to see strong growth in our business across the board and believe we are well-positioned to continue revenue and profit expansion well into 2001," said Bing Yeh, president and CEO. SST shares reversed earlier losses and are now up 11/16, or 1.2 percent, to 56 5/8.
Net revenues for the second quarter were $103.2 million, grew 66% from $62.3 million in the first quarter of 2000, and 349% from $23.0 million in the second quarter a year ago.
Net income for the second quarter of 2000 was $22.5 million, or $0.71 per share, based on approximately 31.9 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding. This compares with a net income of $9.6 million in the first quarter of 2000, or $0.34 per share, based on approximately 28.3 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, and with a net loss in the second quarter of 1999 of $3.6 million, or a loss of $0.15 per share, based on approximately 23.7 million weighted average shares outstanding.
``We are pleased to report record results for the third consecutive quarter. Our business continued to be driven by the strong demand for our products and by the production ramp of over 50 new products, most of which were introduced over the past several quarters,'' said Bing Yeh, president and CEO. ``Demand for our products continues to outstrip our capability to supply. We expect to continue increasing our capacity to meet the growing demand.
``During the second quarter, we continued to execute our diversification strategy by expanding our market presence in a very broad range of applications in the digital consumer, networking, wireless communications and Internet computing markets. We saw strong growth of product shipments in many applications including set-top boxes, digital TVs, CD-RW drives, DVD-ROM drives, DVD players, MP3 players, network switches and routers, DSL modems, pagers, cellular phones and cordless telephones. We have also shipped over 500,000 units of Intel 800 series chipset compatible 4Mbit Firmware Hub product for PC BIOS applications during the June month.
``During the second quarter, we also continued to execute on our product proliferation strategy by developing more differentiated products to serve targeted applications including future generation cellular phone, wireless modem, Global Positioning System, Bluetooth, Internet Appliance, small disk drive, electronic organizer, smart card and video games. ``We believe the flash market will become more and more fragmented, characterized by the coexistence and continued growth of all memory densities and various configurations to meet the specific requirements in each of the emerging broad applications. As a result, we believe our strategy of diversified product offerings and technology licensing for embedded applications not only will maximize our growth potential, but also can minimize our business fluctuations due to the seasonal weakness of any particular application segment. ``With more than 50 new products introduced since mid-1998 that serve a wide variety of applications, the additional wafer capacity that we expect to bring on line in 2001 and more than 40 new volume purchase and supply agreements that we expect to sign with our customers, we believe SST is well positioned to take advantage of the current industry upturn. Looking forward, we expect to see robust growth in our business through the balance of 2000 and well into 2001,'' he said
CC notes 7/19/00
-103M in rev
- 10% revs in wireless
- 23% Japan/Korea rev, 16% China
- 44% gross margin vs 26% a year ago
- 5% in sales and markets
- 3.7M in G&A
- 27% operating profit vs losses last year.
- 216M in cash/securities
- 84.6M in accounts receivables
- Demand two times capacity
- Trying to be leade4r in 8Mb and under products
- Internet appliance, GPS, video games, Bluetooth, are some of our target sales area
- Believe diversified product category minimize sector downturn
- NSM licensing agreement for super-flash technology
- 3Q will be affected be increase tax rate, 25% sequential growth resuming in Q4
- No customer more than 5%, Gross margin should be flat due taxes
- Believe some double booking, but can only deliver so much due to demand,
- Really don’t see much competition in the low end which is our target area. High end memory is much more competitive.
- Said AMD telling customer to use 32Mb product because lower memory products won’t be produced anymore.
Analysts and Others
A strong case can be made that AMD's shares are undervalued. The shares are actually trading at a discount to what the firm's flash unit could trade for on its own, assuming that it would command a trailing price/sales ratio similar to those of pure-flash players like Silicon Storage Technology (Nasdaq: SSTI - news) and SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK - news). Of course, AMD is not a pure play on the flash market, but as of the end of 1999, it was second in market share behind Intel.
biz.yahoo.com
Meanwhile, SST's share earnings of $0.71 blew the doors off of the Wall Street consensus, and even some of the highest ``whisper'' numbers that had been circulating in the investment community. That's compared to a $0.15 per-share loss for the year-ago period. In addition, the revenue mix by product application appears to show healthy diversification, which would enable it to better withstand a demand shift in any one area. Check out some of these numbers: Digital consumer applications revenue (47% of the second quarter total) are up 474% year-over-year Networking (17%) -- +580% Wireless Communications (10%) -- +2668% Internet Computing (26%) -- +175%
Management indicated strength across a wide range of products, including set-top boxes, digital TVs, computer peripherals (CD-RWs, DVD-ROMs), network switches and routers, pagers, among others.
But, since last week's earnings release, the stock has languished.
What gives? It primarily has to do with one fact that many individual investors underemphasize when weighing an earnings release against the stock's current valuation:
The numbers are backward-looking. In the case of SST, most of the investment community had anticipated an upside surprise for the quarter. Granted, the extent to which it beat expectations should factor somewhat into a valuation adjustment. But what Wall Street was really looking for was some clarity as to the health of its future prospects. Specifically, what the flash memory market and its business will look like going forward. While management should be applauded for its strong level of guidance, and frank discussions during the conference call, as well as its stellar performance to date, the dialogue brought as many lingering questions to the table as it did answers. The picture through the end of the year, though, seems to be pretty clear: SST's strong operating performance should continue. Management indicated it is looking for better than 25% sequential revenue growth in both the third and fourth quarters. Gross margins, however, should remain relatively flat, as it expects to encounter increased costs to ramp up manufacturing at geometries of 0.18 microns and below, which is necessary to produce higher-end, higher-density (16 Mb and above) chips. In addition, earnings will be fully taxed beginning this quarter. The new tax rate in the range of 33%-35%, compared with a 26% rate in the second quarter, and just 4% a year ago, will likely mute earnings growth for the third quarter, then accelerate in line with revenue growth through the year's end.
Currently, SST faces little competition in its strongest product segment - flash memory with densities of 2Mb and below, which accounted for 80% of the company's unit shipments in the second quarter. In fact, management stated that demand is more than double the supply of many of its products, which should ensure that both order growth and pricing will remain firm. Moreover, the question of whether or not flash memory prices are flattening in the spot market should not materially affect SST. That's because nearly 100% of its chip shipments are contracted through Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), and most of which will continue to pay premium prices while the chips are still in short supply.
So what's the catch? Well, none, really. But the extent to which SST can rake in the profits in 2001 and beyond is still quite cloudy at this stage. Here's why: The sweet spot in the 2Mb and below flash memory market will ultimately give way to technology that requires flash memory with increasing complexity and density. When the majority of SST's business shifts toward chips with densities of 16Mb and above, they enter the arena where some large and powerful competitors operate.
The list includes Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD - news), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC - news), ST Micro (NYSE:STM - news) , Atmel (NASDAQ: ATML - news) and others. In fact, AMD and Intel are already aggressively promoting the adoption of more complex chips over lower-end solutions to its customers. A move further into the high-density mass-data-storage market would bring competition from SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK - news) and M-Systems (NASDAQ: FLSH - news), which are already established players here. The industry is rushing to bring new capacity online. Starting in 2001, the influx of new capacity may well start to balance the supply/demand picture, while it would likely intensify competition and potential pricing pressure. In this scenario, order bookings should also be watched closely. Typically, in a market of undersupply, companies desperate for a product will overbook orders with a number of suppliers, in hopes that most or all of its needs will be fulfilled. Overbooking likely exists in many flash memory orders, which may lead to a sharp number of cancellations once new supplies actually reach the market. Also, SST is a ``fabless'' flash producer; it depends on foundry agreements with Sanyo (NASDAQ: SANYY - news), Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM - news), Seiko, Samsung, and National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM - news) . In a tight-supply environment, SST may not be able to produce the quality and quantity of chips it desires through third-party manufacturing channels.
Going forward, further margin improvement may well prove difficult for SST. Silicon wafer prices were up 5% to 8% in the second quarter, the first such increase in years, and management stated that more price hikes are likely on the way. In addition, the shift in mix toward higher-end chips should increase production costs beyond the company's year-end guidance. That's not to say SST's future beyond the year's end is all doom and gloom. For one, SSTI's SuperFlash technology seems to have a number of competitive advantages, in terms of cost, scalability, reliability, and the flexibility for use in both low-density and high-density flash applications. As a result, any erosion of SST's current customer base may be minimal, provided it can produce the necessary product in sufficient quantities. Licensing revenue, which only generated about 1% of second-quarter revenue, should receive a boost on the heels of its new deal with Apacer, a subsidiary of Acer Inc., the Taiwanese firm best known for its line of PCs. Through the agreement, Apacer will exclusively use SST's proprietary SuperFlash ATA controller and firmware in its products (including set-top boxes, network computers, PDAs, cell phones, etc.) beginning with shipments next month. Furthermore, the company announced it had begun firmware shipments for a new Intel PC chipset in material quantities, which may further boost revenue through 2001.
Management also indicated it is working on removable flash memory solutions to support applications for the emerging Bluetooth short-range wireless standard and third-generation (3G) wireless phones. SST is currently working with Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM - news) and Samsung on chipset and handset solutions, respectively, for the cellular phone market, which only represents about 2% of total revenue to date. Nonetheless, we remain firm on our admittedly controversial downgrade of SST shares for now.
Remember, we first recommended SST on 3/10/99 for our April 1999 Special Situations Report newsletter at just $3.06 a share. SSR subscribers who invested in SST then have hauled in a whopping 2,643% return in the 17 months leading up to our downgrade on July 6, at $83.94 a share.
In addition, SST was recommended for this year's Magic25 portfolio back on November 9, 1999, at $23.75 a share - a 253% return in eight months. To put it simply, the risks just seem to outweigh the potential rewards to leave these kinds of profits on the table at this juncture.
biz.yahoo.com
In his July 5 call, Joseph cut the chip sector to neutral from outperform, pointing to higher inventories, softer prices and a spike in spending as possible signs of a top. In the note, he cut his ratings on Advanced Micro Devices, National Semiconductor, Silicon Storage Technology and Texas Instruments. (Of those companies, Solly has performed recent underwriting for Advanced Micro and Silicon Storage.)
thestreet.com
Numbers
Revs 23.0M to 35.1M to 48.3M to 62.3M to 103.2M Jun00 per daily stocks
EPS (0.07) to 0.02 to 0.21 to 0.34 to 0.71 Jun00 per briefing.com before 4 to 1 split
So last Q was 0.14 split adjusted. Next quarter is estimated by Zacks has 0.22 for next quarter, and 0.27 for Dec00. Interesting to see if this split affect brokeage’s computers for screening stocks.
52-Week Low on 24-Sep-1999 $4.021
Recent Price $24.875
52-Week High on 22-June-2000 $38.896
Market Capitalization $2.22B
Shares Outstanding 89.2M
Float 75.0M
Price/Book (mrq) 6.57
Price/Earnings (ttm) 58.67
Price/Sales (ttm) 8.59
Short Interest As of 10-July-2000
Shares Short 4.79M
Percent of Float 6.4%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 1.54M
Insiders
3 Buys and 12 sells in 2000
49% institutional up from 11% three quarters ago.
Internet posts
Silicon Storage: A Flash in the Pan? by Chris Connor
Silicon Storage {SSTI}, a flash memory maker, is definitely on a roll. Over the past year, SSTI has ascended over 300 percent as both revenues and earnings have been skyrocketing. Earnings have been soaring to such a degree that Silicon Storage has blown earnings estimates away in its last five quarters. Over those last five quarters, Silicon Storage beat estimates by 46.15 percent, 100 percent, 10.53 percent, 47.83 percent, and 73.17 percent (in order of occurrence). Silicon Storage appeared in a search that looks for mid-cap companies that offer substantial upside potential, entitled Mid-Cap Magic.
A Leader in an Explosive Industry
It would be difficult to find a technology in a better space than that currently occupied by flash memory. Flash memory can benefit from not only the dynamic growth of data storage, but also from the continued explosion of wireless devices. The rapidly burgeoning and proliferating devices such as digital cameras, MP3 players, notebook computers, PDAs, and Internet-enabled phones require flash memory cards to store data. These wireless devices use these cards because flash memory cards are small, removable, can hold many more times the data than a floppy disk can hold, and are able to retain data after the device is turned off. According to semiconductor market research firm IC Insight, flash memory will be an $18.3 billion industry by 2003 after seeing a global demand of $4.6 billion last year.
Silicon Storage stands out from other flash memory makers because of one very important characteristic: speed. Silicon Storage claims that its flash memory card is able to sustain a write speed (the speed of inputting data to the card) of 1.4 megabytes per second. SSTI's card is so fast largely because of its dual-port SRAM (static random-access memory) buffer. This buffer allows a user to write to the buffer while the buffer writes to the flash memory simultaneously. In addition to the dual-port buffer, Silicon Storage's card augments its market-leading speed by employing a direct channel from the buffer to the flash memory - thereby eliminating steps and enhancing performance. Flash memory speed is most crucial to digital cameras because flash memory determines the rate at which a digital camera can take consecutive shots.
Surprising Valuation
Normally, a leading company in a rapidly growing industry that posts the kind of growth numbers that Silicon Storage has been registering commands a rich premium for its stock price. However, that is not the case with Silicon Storage. As Silicon Storage's Financial Overview demonstrates, SSTI sports a PE ratio of only 48.46. While SSTI's PE is above the market's (S&P 500's) PE ratio of 33.54, its PE is still substantially lower than other rapidly growing storage companies such as Brocade {BRCD}, Network Appliance {NTAP}, Emulex {EMLX} and JNI {JNIC}. For example, analysts expect JNI and Silicon Storage will each grow their earnings at rates of 37.5 percent per year over the next five years, but JNI is valued considerably higher with an astronomical PE ratio of over 300. Furthermore, SSTI has a price-to-sales ratio of 7.1, while the S&P has a higher price-to-sales ratio of 8.68. It is not every day that a leader in a hot industry is priced below the market, based on sales.
Looking Forward
In the future, Silicon Storage has a largely-untapped opportunity in providing flash memory to the cell phone market. Despite working relationships with Qualcomm {QCOM} and Samsung, Silicon Storage derives only about 2 percent of its sales from the cell phone market. (Most of Silicon Storage's sales were derived from products such as digital cameras, MP3s, network routers, set-top boxes, computer peripherals, and pagers 8/20/00 on yahoo
An article in the Economist stated that SSTI is in a very good position to grow and dominate the flash memory market because it is focused on flash memory. It also a stated that the demand for flash memory will be intense worldwide for years to come. I see a spit a year for 5 years! Hold and Keep buying! We will all do well! 8/20/00 in yahoo
I see SNDK finally getting above $80 and if the market is really good, then I could see a move to the $100/to $110 area. That is not a new high, SSTI on the other hand, I believe could get to the mid $30 and possibly to $42/$45 or so, a new high. I am long both (CYMI as well). 8/20/00 on SI
Chart
Dipped below $18 during tech correction in July and risen to present level on weak volume. Tight 50/10/200 stack. $20 seems to be a good bottom looking at the one year chart.
Links
ssti.com
Summary
Yahoo thread is one big mess. CC on vcall is interesting as they are very focused on their strength. Price running like the sector cyclical. It is of course, but when the cycle ends is anyone’s guess. I like the niche that SSTI is pursuing in the low density sector. Company has penetrated all continents with sales to all major countries. I constantly listen to CC where shortage of flash memory exists. This recent rise is on weak volume so is a WATCH. Short term downside is a return to $20 and upside is a new high. Risk/reward is favorable. This moves with the SOX so rightly or wrongly, it will decline with it. Have to sleep on this one.
Jack |
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| To: Steve168 who wrote (609) | 8/20/2000 11:21:50 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Hi Steve, Funny you mentioned PHTN and FFIV. I owned both. PHTN last fall and sold too soon and FFIV was a 30% gain in the summer.
PHTN has solid growth and should be a good long term hold. Haven't really followed it since the winter, but remember being concerned on the weak Dec99 quarter. Has done well since in the business. The recent drop from $85 to $45 is a concern, but probably explainable. Looks like it rebounding slowly.
FFIV is a good stock, but the revenues are increasing at a good clip, but earnings are essentially flat the last three quarters. Not sure which way it will go.
Glad to have you on board.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who started this subject | 8/21/2000 1:20:54 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) With a name like SLAB, it has to be good
Rated a WATCH
Reason for DD
Passed the mid-summer screen
Business
Silicon Laboratories, Inc. is engaged in the design and development of proprietary, analog-intensive, mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for the rapidly growing global communications industry. Mixed-signal ICs are electronic components that are capable of processing both digital signals and real-world analog signals, such as sound and radio waves. To develop its business rapidly, the Company initially focused its efforts on developing IC solutions for the personal computer modem market. The Company is now applying its mixed-signal and communications expertise to the development of IC solutions for other high growth communications devices such as cellular telephones and network access applications. The Company is organized into two principal divisions: the Wireline Products Division and the Wireless Products Division.
Competitors
ADI, CNXT
News
AUSTIN, Texas -- August 10, 2000 -- Silicon Laboratories Inc. (Nasdaq: SLAB), the mixed-signal integrated circuit (IC) innovator for the communications industry, today announced the completion of its previously announced acquisition of Krypton Isolation, a California-based semiconductor company. The acquisition joins the industry's pioneers in silicon Direct Access Arrangement (DAA) technology, forming the world's leading source for innovative solutions that provide isolation between a communications system and the telephone network, as required by the FCC and equivalent agencies throughout the world.
July 10, 2000 Silicon Laboratories Announces Industry's Smallest SONET/SDH Clock and Data Recovery IC- Si5020 is First in SiPHYTM Family of Physical Layer Interface Products
July 10, 2000 Silicon Laboratories Introduces Optical Networking Division-
Newest Core Technology Extends Company's Focus Into Fiber Optics This new division will focus on developing the SiPHY(TM) family of high-speed physical layer ICs. The company also announced today the first product from the new division, the Si5020 clock and data recovery IC, which is a key functional building block of high-speed optical data communications systems. The product, which is five times smaller than competing solutions, provides the essential clock and data recovery function for fiber optic communication products such as optical transceiver modules, digital cross-connects, and SONET/SDH/ATM routers, test equipment and regenerators.
July 10, 2000 Analog Devices Withdraws Lawsuit Against Silicon Laboratories
June 27, 2000 Silicon Laboratories To Acquire Krypton Isolation- Silicon DAA Technology Pioneers Join Forces
June 22, 2000 Silicon Laboratories Releases Statement Regarding Analog Devices’ Lawsuit
Analysts and others
7/18/00 Silicon Laboratories: Strong Quarter; $100 Price Target
Lehman Brothers Equity Research
27-Apr-00 09:30 -- 10:00 ET
Silicon Labs (SLAB) 75 -4 7/16: Lehman Brothers initiates coverage with a OUTPERFORM rating and price target of $100. Brokerage firm initiating coverage participated in underwriting the recent IPO.
26-Apr-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB) 79 7/16 -1 5/16: Reports Q1 earnings of $0.08 a share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.09, vs year-ago earnings of $0.03
23-Mar-00 AFTER THE CLOSE
IPO Pricings : Silicon Labs (SLAB) 3.2 mln at $ 31, well above range, Morgan Stanley as lead.
3/23/00 Rated a B+ IPO from the tough Francis Gaskins. High growth market and good management. INTC and MOT are customers. Proprietary technology. INTC used SLAB due to SLAB’s expertise in mixed signal technology. As computer interface with speech and vision, this interface will be required. CXNT is biggest competitor since they make the most modem chip and came out with there own DDA. Not sure if cheaper and more programmable than SLAB. As moving up in technology, don’t need separate DSP chips. Still need a DAA (pair of chips) on every computer. Only 15% of computer cycle time with a 500Mhz processor vs. 50% with the Pentium. CMOS saves million in testing costs. They have the skill set that gives this company the potential upside. Wireless chipset also going to be a new product. Japan is the first place to use 3G wireless since out of capacity. These have introduced a phase lock loop, it synchonizes the signal in wireless handsets.
Numbers
Revs 6.3M to 7.4M to 14.5M to 19.7M to 24.3m Jun00 per daily stocks.net
EPS 0.08a to 0.10a Jun00 per briefing.com
2-Week Low on 31-May-2000 $45.50
Recent Price $67.00
52-Week High on 29-Mar-2000 $105.75
Market Capitalization $3.17B
Shares Outstanding 47.2M
Float 3.20M
Price/Book (mrq*) 25.96
Price/Earnings (ttm) 189.80
Price/Sales (ttm) 39.81
Total Cash (mrq) $105.7M
Short Interest As of 10-July-2000
Shares Short 65.0K
Percent of Float 2.0%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 32.0K
ADI comparision
Market Capitalization $33.5B
Shares Outstanding 355.2M
Float 344.6M
Price/Book (mrq*) 17.92
Price/Earnings (ttm) 74.51
Price/Sales (ttm) 16.16
Insiders
19 buys and 3 sells, but Lockup has not expired so take with a grain of salt
11% institutional up from 1% previous quarter
Internet Post
illiquidity is why SLAB is so fun - up $30 in 3 days: 7/12/00 on SI
It is a contentious topic whether communications pure-plays will be insulated during the next supply-driven semiconductor industry downturn. Fundamentally, we are optimistic that the group's low capital intensity
and design-driven character will allow it to weather the storm better than other segments. Given the relative immaturity of the group, however, there is limited historical precedent. A few factors to consider: In the 1998 semiconductor industry downturn, most of the communications component pure-plays (e.g., Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC#, 1H) Broadcom (BRCM, 1S), PMC-Sierra (PMCS, 1H), and Vitesse (VTSS, 2H)) enjoyed tremendous sales and profit growth, despite the fact that the semiconductor industry
contracted by 8%. Indeed, until a series of exogenous (e.g., Russia's financial crisis and the collapse of LTCM) and communications industry events (e.g., the Ciena (CIEN, NR)-Tellabs (TLAB, 1M) debacle and earnings misses at Alcatel, Advanced Fiber Comm (AFCI, NR), and Reltec), the comm IC stocks outperformed the SOX index and the overall market. In other words, investors appeared to have differentiated the comm IC stocks from the general purpose chip stocks. In 1996, in a somewhat different
illustration, excess customer inventories were a negative factor faced by chip suppliers of all stripes. At the time, there were only two publicly traded broadband comm IC pure-plays, Level One Communications and Vitesse Semiconductor. Vitesse thrived in 1996, driven by the dawn of the optical networking market. Level One Communications, in contrast, suffered from four flat sequential sales quarters. Level One attributed the flatness to inventory corrections at customers (we believe Cisco (CSCO, 1M) and
Hewlett-Packard (HWP#, 1M) were two major culprits). The lesson of that divergence is that customer inventories must be closely watched. Currently, inventories at most communications OEMs appear relatively well-controlled, although we will be monitoring the data from the June quarter carefully.
Our point is that the historical track record is limited: 1998 provides a comforting view, while 1996 highlights a possible risk factor (i.e., customer inventories). On balance, we believe the communications IC
pure-plays such as AMCC, Broadcom, Centillium (CTLM#, 2S), Galileo Tech (GALT, 1S), PMC-Sierra, Silicon Labs (SLAB#, 2S), and Vitesse Semiconductor should remain fairly good performers should the
semiconductor seas get rough. 7/6/00 on GTR
tejek - SLAB revenue growth did not decrease Q2Q, EPS did, and that was because of increased spending on R&D and to acquire top talent. EPS last quarter was a 33% surprise, future long-term growth looks solid IMO. And, with the ADI suit dropped, the short-term looks bright as well.
I was not clear in my post. What I meant was that the rate of revenue growth YOY slowed from 400% to 200%. Certainly fast growth but also a steep drop in the rate. 6/27/00 on SI
``Hand-held computers represent a $2 billion market in 2000, growing at a compound annual rate of 27 percent,'' said Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts. ``Although only an estimated 25 percent of hand-helds shipping this year will be equipped with modems, a growing percentage will incorporate the functionality as both sizes and prices of hand-held-specific modems fall. Forward Concepts forecasts that the number of modem-equipped hand-helds will grow at a 58 percent compound annual growth rate, as over half of the projected 26 million units shipping in 2004 are expected to include modem functionality.''
6/13/00 on SI
Silicon Laboratories flew up 43, or 187 percent, to 66 Friday in its initial public offering after pricing its shares at $31 a share. 3/24/00 on SI
Chart
Recent gap up on June 15. Two big green days this quarter. Very low volume on recent rise. 7 out of 8 days are green but volume under 100K.
Link
silabs.com
Summary
A sharp rise due to the ADI run-up. This float is ridiculous. Institutions cannot buy without jacking the price up. $15 short term downside and $30 upside. ADI at its high and technically a better buy, but I cannot ascertain the technological superiority between the two. Message board at yahoo is verbal war and wasting space. RB is better but very little of substance. Only two analyst following it and 0.11 predicted for Sep00 and 0.12 for Dec00. Momentum players out of this as low volume attests. Gaskin vcall session best intelligence out there. Lehman is involves in this IPO so that is a negative since their KOREA fiasco.
ADI and SLAB not on the same FY. ADI Jul00 quarter had 21% increase in revs. SLAb had 23%. ADI pre-announces upside so I figure that SLAB is probably right behind too.
Another one to sleep on.
Jack |
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