| To: Jack Hartmann who started this subject | 8/14/2000 8:05:38 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | W) Turn on the HPOW
Rated a Watch
Reason for DD
Fuel cell company that just IPOd
Business
H Power is a leading fuel cell development company. We believe that we were the first to complete a commercial sale of proton-exchange membrane, or PEM, fuel cell systems. Our PEM fuel cells are designed to provide electricity for a wide range of stationary, portable and mobile applications. We believe that our residential cogeneration products will be adopted in our first target market, consisting of rural, remote homes, because they will best meet the criteria used by the customer in choosing a residential power source. These criteria include price, operating cost, noise, pollution, reliability and maintenance. We believe that as our stationary, portable and mobile products gain acceptance in the market and are manufactured in large quantities, their cost will decline and their reliability will increase until they can provide electricity competitively for a wide variety of applications and geographical territories. PEM fuel cells are devices that generate electricity efficiently and cleanly from the electrochemical reaction of hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is typically derived from conventional fuels such as natural gas or propane, while oxygen is drawn from the air.
We have incurred a cumulative net loss since inception through May 31, 2000 of approximately $44.7 million. We anticipate incurring significant additional losses through at least our fiscal year 2002, primarily as a result of our substantial research and development expenditures and increased sales and marketing expenses.
We have 17 patents issued or allowed in the U.S. and one patent issued or allowed in each of Europe, Taiwan and Singapore covering our proprietary technology. The issued patents will remain in effect for the next fourteen to eighteen years.
Competitors
Other companies making similar product FCEL, PLUG. . Ballard Power Systems has been developing PEM fuel cell technology with a number of partners and is a potential competitor. A number of major automotive and manufacturing companies also have in-house PEM fuel cell development efforts. Although we believe several companies have established residential fuel cell system development programs, we believe that these companies are still in the development stage. Plug Power Inc. and Avista Corp. are potential competitors for residential applications. We are not aware of any competitors in the less than 1 kilowatt segment of the market, wherein we have four products now in low-volume production.
News
In August 1999, we entered into a ten-year agreement with ECO Fuel Cells, LLC, a subsidiary of Energy Co-Opportunity, Inc. (ECO), to market, sell, install and service our stationary power fuel cell systems. ECO is an association of approximately 250 U.S. rural electric cooperatives. We have granted ECO the right to market our products to more than 900 cooperatives whose service territory includes 83% of the U.S. counties in 47 states. These cooperatives supply power to approximately 14 million U.S. households, farms and small businesses. ECO also has the right to market H Power's products to the additional 37 million households in this service territory that are served by municipal and investor-owned electric utilities. ECO has agreed to purchase 12,300 of our stationary fuel cell systems over several years for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $81 million. ECO's ability to purchase these systems from us depends on its ability to resell the systems to its cooperatives and customers. In March 2000, we completed the first installation of our prototype stationary fuel cell system to an ECO cooperative. We have not yet completely developed and produced the stationary fuel cell systems we have agreed to sell to ECO. We believe that ECO's rural customer base will be among the most likely early adopters of fuel cell technology.
As of May 31, 2000, we delivered and installed five test and evaluation units to ECO. We intend to establish manufacturing facilities in the first half of the calendar year 2001 to meet our goal of shipping initial commercial units in the second half of calendar year 2001. We expect that the introductory price of our stationary power fuel cell systems will be less than $10,000. Our product cost analyses indicate that after two to three years of commercial production, efficiencies in production and learning experience should reduce substantially the cost of our PEM fuel cell systems. During this two to three-year period, our fuel cell systems will likely be sold to ECO at a price below the costs of production. We believe that our systems would then become attractive to a significant percentage of the additional 37 million households, particularly those in areas where the cost of electricity is relatively high and the cost of natural gas is relatively low.
May 2000 We entered into a renewable two-year distribution arrangement with Mitsui & Co., Ltd. under which they will market our entire line of fuel cell products in Japan.
Analysts and others
Lehman, CIBC, Credit Suisse, Josephal, GS, Warburg, Chase, Gruntal, Raymond James, are some of the underwriters
09-Aug-00 11:04 ET
H Power (HPOW) : -- Update -- IPO indicated to open $25 to $27, after pricing at $16.
09-Aug-00 10:32 ET
IPO Pricing : H Power (HPOW), a designer of proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, prices 7 mln share IPO at $16, above the $11-$13 range. Lehman Brothers leading the deal
Numbers
Revs FY ends in May
1997 - 0.246M
1998 - 0.718M
1999 - 1.018M
2000 – 3.680M
EPS loss for FY 2000 was (0.40)
Net loss applicable to Com. rose from $7 million to $17.2 million for the FY
52-Week Low on 10-Aug-2000 $16.00
Recent Price $16.00
52-Week High on 9-Aug-2000 $28.50
Market Capitalization $844.1M
Shares Outstanding 52.8M
Float 7.00M
No P/E
Price/Sales 229 (844M/3.680M)
Insiders
None
Internet Posts
No yahoo board yet,
Long term play at best. As stated in earlier posts, HPOW is not one of the big players in this field. Can not come close to Ballard(the leader), Plug(has GE throwing $ at them), Allied Signal(has a high priced R&D group in NM), Visteon(a Ford company conducting R&D). None of these except Ballard will be profitable for a long time. Look at their technology suppliers. Every one of them buys technology and power inverter circuitry from SatCon Technology, who is spinning off Beacon Power. 8/13/00 on RB
PLUG and HPOW. Look at PLUG when came in the market, 17 and 16 and 17 for a month. Suddenly 24 and 40 and ..156. Look at Fundamentals of HPOW and PLUG and let me know why HPOW is not taking the same road. Also recently PLUG had a problem with GE I think but stll stand. See you in September when HPOW to 50. 8/13/00 on RB
Many of you toally fail to distinguish between the overall "fuel cell industry" and the specific company of H-Power (HPOW). The industry is young and growing, with neat new products that sell. HPOW has been losing money for eight years, its staggering losses only mount uyear upon year, and it has nothing to sell but a retro battery-backup for road signs. Good industry + bad company = IPO success for Lehman, disaster for investors and traders. 8/11/00 on RB
Out of that POS HPOW for a loss. The COMPX gains 20 points and this POS drops a full point! Nice! 8/11/00 on SI
Alternative energy sources have been heavily favored in the current market. Dominant technologies include fuel cells and microturbines, which are being applied to a variety of uses. While their application to vehicles (e.g., autos, buses) have received the highest profile, they are also being used as principal and back up power supplies for homes and industrial operations. H Power makes PEM fuel cells, which are considered practical, safe, less costly to manufacture, and more convenient to operate. The firm’s early products are used as battery substitutes and have been used for traffic control systems, golf carts, etc. It has already sold 65 units to the New Jersey DOT. Notably, this was the first non-subsidized commercial sale in the entire fuel cell industry. But the real story is the firm’s recent deal to sell residential fuel cells to the more than 900 US rural energy cooperatives. This is expected to generate revenues in the $81 million range by FY’02 (5/31). Additional contracts for rural residential systems are expected from firms in Canada. Consequently, the company’s opportunities for growth are considerable and it has the potential to reach the $100 million mark in 3 years. 8/10/00 on RB
HPOW being supported at 16 original price point, and should build from there when all weak hands are out. Hopefully this picture marks the bottom and we will be in the 20s in a week or so. 8/10/00 on SI
These guys are a small player. Satcon, Beacon (a Satcon spin-off), Visteon (a Ford Motors spin-off), and many others are in the game. Allied Signal has a R&D group in New Mexico that they are pumping a ton of money into to try and blow the rest out of the water. I can't believe Active Power made the run it did earlier this week. Basically a case of jumping on the bandwagon. Look at what happened to Plug Power when they couldn't produce on time, GE hurt them bad. Be careful. 8/10/00 on RB
Fuel cell cos. are like dot-coms: a few winners, many losers. 8/10/00
I agree on HPOW. The one time I saw the bid hit 16 there was 90k sitting there. Seems someone is drawing a line in the sand at the ipo price. Of course that type of bid can disapear in a hurry, but it looks to have bottomed in the low 16's. 8/10/00 on SI
Anyone have an account with lehman? There is more to this then the fact that they do not support their ipo's. They must let their big clients flip at will. Lot's of big blocks being flipped on hpow. 8/9/00 on SI
Chart
Dropping knife. Selling all the way down. Bounce to $16 on Friday was on low volume.
Summary
Chart makes this a WATCH. One weak link is that natural gas prices must be low to sell this product. I don’t see natural gas being low in the next two years. I think this has a chance to go to $12 before going to $20. Worth a try then.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (581) | 8/14/2000 10:08:56 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Portfolio up 0.99%, Dow up 1.35%, Nasdaq up 1.59%, S&P500 up 1.34%, Gilder up 4.2% (TXN up 10%), Meisler up 3.9%, J-Blimps up 3.9%, Fuel Cells up 1.9%
NYSE Volume: 785 mln...Adv: 1835...Dec: 1038
Nasdaq Volume: 1.22 bln...Adv: 2108...Dec: 1929
Nice advancing issue ratio, but volume is low.
Put/call ratio 0.49 essentially same all day
Sector Watch
Techs (XLK) 52.93 +1.06 +2.04% INTC up 4% on chip optimism renewal, this weeks flavor du jour
Comp. Tech ($XCI) 1521.72 +29.99 +2.01% Another index with INTC and HWP up 4 points also.
Natural Gas ($XNG) 208.47 +6.77 +3.36% APA, APC, NBL, ENE, OEI, PPP all up 4% as fear of 50% higher natural gas prices sinks in. Broke to a two year high now.
Semis ($SOX) 1027.19 +73.59 +7.72% Can you say wow. Sitting on that 200 day EMA and moved strongly up half way toward the 50 day EMA
NYSE Comp. ($NYA) 672.05 +7.31 +1.10% Low volume, but another high.
Network ($NWX) 1267.58 +26.74 +2.15% Still hanging above its 50 day EMA line. Strongest tech sector now. Optical stocks like CIEN and NT holding it up.
Portfolio watch
MTSN up 7.28% Riding the SOX wave
EPG up 4.38% New52wkHI. Up with the rest of the sector
UCL up 5.04% Crude near $32 a barrel
PTEN up 5.61%. Another natural gas.
IRF up 4.49%. Tech comeback kid.
MET down 4.17%. Giving most gains from Friday back.
Despite cheerleading today on the techs, the NASDAQ is still below its 200 day EMA. Dow Utilities set another record again. I feel this is the strongest sector out there now. Insurance, Industrials, and Financials are also strong and breaking out of two year slumps to record highs.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (590) | 8/15/2000 9:58:14 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Portfolio up 0.41%, Dow down 0.98%, Nasdaq up 0.05%, S&P500 down 0.48%, Gilder up 1.8%, Meisler up 1.5%, J-Blimps up 1.3%, Fuel cells/Alt energy down 0.1%
NYSE Volume: 896 mln...Adv: 1161...Dec: 1690
Nasdaq Volume: 1.35 bln...Adv: 1893...Dec: 2140
Put/call ratio 0.54 (range 0.54-0.66)
Sector Watch
Semis ($SOX) 1060.52 +33.33 +3.24% Another positive day as MSDW said another 18-24 months left in cycle. About 80% toward the 50 day EMA.
Retailers ($RLX) 841.73 -30.83 -3.53% J.C. Penney posted second-quarter net income that fell 41% on sluggish sales, and warned of a second-half slowdown. Staples' net also fell amid losses from its Internet unit. Bounced off the bearish 200/50 day EMA stack
Broker Dealers ($XBD) 614.73 -16.33 -2.59% Still a very nice chart. Just some profitaking. Well above the 50/200 day EMA stack. SCH led the group with a 5% decline on no news.
HMOs ($RXH) 203.98 -6.69 -3.18% PHYC dumped 25% on Nasdaq delisting news. I can't believe it is still in the index. But it still is.
options.nasdaq.com
Strongly above the 50/200 stack, though.
Cyclicals (XLY) 26.31 -0.78 -2.88% HD dropped 9% on just matching expected earning news. JCP dropped 8% on a weak quarter. Now under the bearish 200/50 day EMA stack.
Portfolio watch.
MTSN up 13.21%. Riding the tide of the SOX index.
IFR up 6.75%. I never think of this as a semi, but the street apparently does.
Oil still running up above $30 a barrel. Gilder stock ADI preannounced earnings upside and shot up 8%. CNXT up 18% on stong buy from MSDW.
"MSDW on semiconductors --10:40 am - By Michael Baron
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst Mark Edelstone has some positive comments about the semiconductor industry Tuesday. "We believe the semiconductor cycle is intact and has another 18-to-24 months to run," said Edelstone in a research note. "Demand remains solid and inventories in check." Edelstone takes the view that concerns about a slowdown in wireless demand are overblown and that most stocks have already discounted a deceleration in year-over-year growth rates. Among the attractive stocks in Edelstone's opinion are Cypress Semiconductor (CY: news, msgs), Atmel (ATML: news, msgs) and Conexant (CNXT: news, msgs)."
Edelstone was rated the top analyst for price prediction in the last TSCM ranking of analysts. So his words carry weight more than most.
FCEL was up 5% on no news, best in that sector. Had news last week that it was expanding to new facilty to increase production. Will DD sometime.
CPI comes out tomorrow. Consensus is 0.1% with a core CPI of 0.2%. I've noticed since gas is cheaper here in IL, that other products are too. June had CPI up only 0.1% overall, Core up 0.2%. July was 0.6% CPI and a core up 0.2%
I wouldn't be surprised at a core of 0.1% which is bullish.
Jack |
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| To: changedmyname who wrote (593) | 8/15/2000 11:50:27 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | | Jason, You used to post 20 times a day last summer(GRIN, ADSP, PQT, PRFM). Now we are lucky to get 20 times in a month. <gg>
Last I remember, you said you were more active on A@P site.
Some of your better quotes in the last 12 months
If Linux is hot, I'll trade Linux that day. If wireless hot, I'll be all over wireless for that week. But when the momo is gone, I'm moving on.
I've had people try to drag me through the mud before... and it never works.
You know why? because what you see is what you get.
I don't put on a show.. and I make no bones about it that I post momo plays. Ask anyone that has known me for the past couple years... you don't look at my posts for long-term investments (unless of course you want ASIA, lol).
Message 13409403
I will probably purchase more ASIA at the 50 to 55 level... BUT... I hope no one bought this stock thinking it was some momo play...
It could easily see 30 before it sees 200. One year from now... if things don't change fundamentaly... things should be different. Message 13322587
at least I admit I'm a pump and dumper. <gg>
Message 12320425
Of course 220 peoplemarks in 1999 meant people followed your picks.
Message 11768354
PQT---> IPO next week of PCQT! Get this, another PRFM. More math from me:
14.8 million shares of PQT outstanding... keeping 50% of PCQT, so 7.75 million shares AFTER the offering.
Prices at $14... so PQT holds 7.75 million shares of PCQT ='s $108,000,000.
$108,000,000 divided by the 14.8 million shares of PQT ='s $7.33/share.
PQT now trading 4s.
PCQT will be a hot offering too. Great underwriting team.
Message 11039240
PQT made anyone money that day.
ELON--> Volume pouring in... called the Next CSCO. Amazing. This one went from 7 to 10 the last time a different article came out saying the same thing. Tiny float, most of it held my institutions. Message 11062048
ELON is stuff of legends.
ADSP ticking up, good find. $2 stock, big news with RHAT:
redhat.com
can't believe this one has been overlooked.
Message 11104369
Doubled my money in a day.
*****************
No one was hotter than you in the summer of 1999. Hope you post more. May not always buy, but always check your picks out.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (594) | 8/16/2000 1:20:04 AM | | From: changedmyname | | | | Jack,
I appreciate the kind words. What was accomplished here on SI was just another chapter in this bull market. But, like in any novel, that chapter has come to a close. Will another one be written? Who knows... I'm sure it will in time, but with new players and new faces.
like the following post that you quoted from:
"If Linux is hot, I'll trade Linux that day. If wireless hot, I'll be all over wireless for that week. But when the momo is gone, I'm moving on."
SI was just part of the game. SI was hot, and SI died. The "guru" died. I realized at the end of last year, that plays weren't working like they used to. Gone were swing trades, and were replaced with one day momo's. Those gave way to quick 5-minute jobs. And soon, no one was left buying anything.
When business picked up again on the Kimberly Lee thread... who was just another Pump and Dumper in a long line of many (no offense intended), there was brief hope again, as the rookies that run loose here were sucked into believing... believing a momo market was back, and the glory days of late 1998 and 1999 were back. What we saw instead was the entire story of a guru unfold in 3 months... 1) the recognition one receives as their picks start to work, 2) the following that gathers, and 3) the picks that become self-fulfilling prophecies... and then begins the demise as people start playing the stocks quicker (#4), flipping them as momos... and then everyone loses faith in the guru and all trust collapses (#5).
As for my story... I'd like to think I pulled a Michael Jordan... I tried to go out at the top of my game. I think I played a month or two too long.. but I found myself being more selective in what I put out. Picks became fewer and far between. And in the end, I gave up even trying to resurrect the glory days.
Once SI died, I changed with the times. I moved on. I joined the A@P website and got back to the basics. The simple trades based on CNBC or momo's too quick to call on a thread. Back to the basics like buying on dips and selling into strength. Back to buying an IPO and flipping it after a minute for a point or two. Back to sanity :-)
So am I out of the picture? Are my posting days done?
No.
Will I ever get back to posting 20 times in a day? Will the great "jopawa" resurface and follow my plays?
Maybe. (that ones for you John if you're reading! -gg-)
So when SI is back in vogue, You can bet I'll be here to greet all the moms and pops and teenagers logging on to try and make a fast buck in the market. Yep... Tokyo Jason will be here to welcome them with open arms...
But until that day comes... the "public" will just have to take the scattered bits of info I offer up (which, by the way, if you've followed them, you've made a hunk of change [ok, so OPTC never panned out... but DCSR was a double the other day, and JAKK, and GRIN, and on and on])
I honestly think that a lot of traders got wiped out in the market the beginning of this year. Those who bought the biotechs and held on to them and were leveraged to death on margin. The ones that survived went on to other things (like me) or now lay dormant waiting for SI to revive. SI is back to what it was back when I joined and it was free... people simply talking about stocks... hardly any "gurus" (I hate that word) remain... and those that supposedly remain, I'd argue with the success they "claim" to have.
So Jack... thanks for the forum for me to get that out... been wanting to say this mess for a while... maybe I'll finally get that book out I'm writing...
So here's to the Glory days! Good luck with your trading.
Regards,
Jason
aka Tokyo Jason :-) |
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