| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (336) | 5/20/2000 | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | |
Portfolio down 3.76%, Nasdaq down 4.19%, Dow down 1.40%, S&P500 down 2.11%, Gilder down 5.8%, Meisler down 5.1%
NYSE Volume: 853 mln...Adv: 947...Dec: 1923
Nasdaq Volume: 1.36 bln...Adv: 1172...Dec: 2879
No one wants to put their money in the market. Volume still low compared to the frenzy in the first three months.
Semis took a beating as the sector expects April Book-To-Bill ratio to ease from 1.45:1 on a sequential sales increase. Opticals like SDLI, CIEN hit hard. Really like SDLI but up 60% from recent lows. Tough to determine the fair price for it. PE is 300+, PS is 60. $120s was low. Maybe $130s will be a retest if market goes lower.
Some greens today
NVS up 0.89% - No news
CCMP up 0.39%. No news
DUK up 2.72%, No news
WILIF down 16.67%, but as WIN.TO down only 6.67%. Still trades as a premium of 2.5% above the Canadian price.
Discussed portfolios with the attorneys. ELAN seems to be one to check out. Doubled EPS from 1998 to 1999. Revs up 70%. Had some drop earlier last year from accounting questions, but 25 drugs in their pipeline. Alot of DD to do this weekend.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote () | 5/20/2000 11:07:00 AM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | |
What are the top preforming largecap ($5B) stocks this year?
GSPN GlobeSpan, Inc. up 304.2%
DYN Dynegy, Inc. 204.1%
AMD Advanced Micro Devices 198.9%
VSH Vishay Intertechnology 190.1%
BLDP Ballard Power Systems 155.4%
CIEN CIENA Corporation 138.8%
SEPR Sepracor Inc. 114.7%
RHI Robert Half Int'l Inc. 110.3%
SFA Scientific-Atlanta, Inc. 104.9%
NGH Nabisco Group Holdings 100.0%
Amazing I might have got CIEN.
For midcaps ($1-2B)
TLGD Tollgrade Communications 384.1%
PWAV Powerwave Technologies 227.0%
ELON Echelon Corporation 223.0%
NEWP Newport Corporation 196.2%
ADRX Andrx Corporation 188.9%
VRTA Virata Corporation 186.4%
PWR Quanta Services, Inc. 179.8%
RMBS Rambus, Inc. 175.9%
TFS Three-Five Systems, Inc. 172.6%
CORR COR Therapeutics, Inc. 170.7%
RMBS, PWAV, and ELON are no surprises.
No QCOM or KIDE equivalents or are there?
Need to DD some of these.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote () | 5/20/2000 7:41:00 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | |
W) A few seconds on SNDK
Rated a WATCH
Business
The company is a leading maker of flash memory storage devices -- integrated circuits that retain data when power is off (some memory chips lose stored data as soon as power is interrupted). The company's products include removable and embedded memory cards for such products as Eastman Kodak's digital cameras and mobile communication devices made by Nokia and Siemens. It's working with Texas Instruments and others to develop a digital audio player. SanDisk has sales offices in Europe, Asia, and the US. Exports account for about 55% of its sales. Computer storage products maker Seagate Technology owns about 23% of the company. - From Hoovers
Numbers
Revs 44.1M to 52.5M to 67.5M to 82.8M to 109.4M Mar00
EPS 0.08 to 0.10 to 0.11 to 0.15 to 3.00 Mar00 per Hoovers
EPS 0.15 to 0.19 to 0.21 to 0.30 to 0.21a Mar00 per Briefing.com; (a) = Excluding non-recurring items
52-Week Low on 25-May-1999 $13.688
Recent Price $57.625
52-Week High on 9-Mar-2000 $169.625
Price/Earnings (TTM) 20.11* per MG
Price/Earnings (ttm) 17.17 per Yahoo
Price/Sales (TTM) 14.05* per MG
Price/Sales (ttm) 12.00 per Yahoo
Price/Book (MRQ) 7.69 per MG
Price/Book (mrq) 4.75 per Yahoo
Market Capitalization $3.84B
Shares Outstanding 66.6M
Float 33.3M
Cash (mrq) $10.15
Chart
The top two days in the day three months were red. Dropped below 200 day EMA which is bearish. MACD been negative since April 3. 50/10/200 stack which is neutral. There is a selloff and nothing to indicate the price has stabilized.
Insider Selling of Note
MALMED, LEON M. XOFF 20,000 shares 5/4/00 - 5/15/00
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY - 250,000 5/4/00 - 5/17/00
AUCLAIR, DANIEL SR VP 50,000 2/29/00 - 3/23/00
SEAGATE TECH - 365,000 2/28/00 - 3/22/00
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY - 500,000 2/25/00 - 3/23/00
Institutions own 62.7% last quarter. Up from 43.6% 3Qs ago.
Fidelity is number one holder of the stock and MSDW is in top ten.
Competitors
Primary competitors include:
o storage flash chip producers, such as Hitachi Ltd., Samsung Electronics Company Ltd. and Toshiba Corporation;
o socket flash, linear flash and component manufacturers, such as Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., Atmel Corporation, Intel Corporation, Macronix International Co., Ltd., Micron Technology, Inc., Mitsubishi Electronic Corporation, Sharp Electronics Corporation and STMicroelectronics NV; and
o module or card assemblers, such as Lexar Media, Inc., M-Systems, Inc., Pretec Electronics Corp., Simple Technology Inc., Sony Corporation, Kingston Technology Company, Panasonic Consumer Electronic Company, Silicon Storage Technology, Inc., TDK Corporation, Matsushita Battery, Inc. Delkin Devices, Inc., Silicon Tek and Viking Components, Inc., who combine controllers and flash memory chips developed by others into flash storage cards.
News
Toshiba and SanDisk Sign Agreement to Invest $700 Million in Fab Plant to Produce Flash Memory
Business Wire - May 09, 2000 07:32
New Company -- FlashVision LLC -- Is Created;
600 Workers To Be Hired At Virginia Fab Toshiba Corporation and SanDisk Corporation (Nasdaq:SNDK) today signed an agreement to create a new semiconductor company -- FlashVision LLC -- to produce advanced flash memory, utilizing fabrication space at Dominion Semiconductor in Manassas. Toshiba and SanDisk will each get 50 percent of Dominion's flash memory production and will separately market and sell their share of the output of the joint venture production to their respective customers.
On January 3, 2000, the USIC foundry was merged into UMC. The Company had invested $51.2 million in USIC. In exchange for its USIC shares, the Company received 111 million UMC shares. These shares were valued at approximately $396 million at the time of the merger, resulting in a pretax gain of $344.2 million ($203.9 million after-tax).
Legal
On March 21, 2000, Mitsubishi Denki Co. Ltd. (Mitsubishi Electric) filed a complaint in Tokyo District Court against SanDisk K.K., SanDisk's wholly-owned subsidiary in Japan. The complaint alleges that SanDisk K.K., based in Yokohama, Japan, infringes on three Mitsubishi Japanese patents. The Mitsubishi patents in question are #JP2099342, #JP2129071 and # JP2138047. Based on preliminary information, SanDisk believes that these patents are related primarily to the mechanical construction of memory cards built with a separate connector. In the complaint, Mitsubishi asked the court for a preliminary injunction halting the sale of SanDisk CompactFlash and flash ATA memory cards in Japan. Although the Company cannot predict the ultimate outcome of the case, it believes that Mitsubishi's claims are without merit.
Analysts and Brokers
14-Mar-00 BEFORE THE OPEN
SanDisk Corp (SNDK) 125: Merrill Lynch upgrades to NT BUY from NT ACCUM; with price target of $200 as flash memory demand is outpacing supply. They raise their EPS estimates from $0.70 to $0.81 and revenue from $465 mln to $505 mln for FY00 and FY01 goes from $0.90 on $720 mln revs to $1.15 on $840 mln revs.
Internet Posts of Note
Re: SNDK--The issue of their kingliness or gorilla-ality is still open, I think. They are very aggressive about protecting their IP, and there are several lawsuits outstanding. They do have a lot patents. It's not clear (to me, anyway) what kind of barriers SNDK's IP provides. But, I think it is clear that SNDK has more techniques for dealing with data in flash than its competitors. Also, the Toshiba JV indicates to me that SNDK has proprietary knowledge (as well as expertise) that Toshiba needs.
Is there a half-way point between King and Gorilla? Jan 31 on SI
Re: SNDK-- The issue of their kingliness or gorilla-ality is still open It's an open standard, John. Anyone can build to it. SNDK has one hell of a lead. That is the classic definition of a King. So my question is, How long will they have it sewn up, especially when we know that everybody and his Uncle is going into the business? The answer is, of course, that nobody knows. If I buy SNDK, I will watch it, just like I watched Intel, and get out the minute they get pressured on price. Jan 31 on SI
Although we are all competitors, in today's shortage, it doesn't matter, lamented Harari, referring to an unexpected "truce" in the flash memory card war between SanDisk and Sony Corp., which is promoting its Memory Stick format. I hate to see Dr. Harari lamenting. Maybe we should call for a "truce" here on the Thread as Derek has recommended. Both Sony and SanDisk will help promote consumer and OEM acceptance removable flash storage regardless of the form it takes. Mar 8 on SI
Sandisk filed today to issue an additional 400 million shares. Want stockholders to vote on at May 11th stockholder meeting. Mar 24 on SI
Its fully valued here. May want to take profits Mar 27 on RB
BTW, for all SNDK investors out there, I gather AMD's flash operations are looking very good...Mar 28 on SI
Re: SNDK--The issue of their kingliness or gorilla-ality is still open, I think. They are very aggressive about protecting their IP, and there are several lawsuits outstanding. They do have a lot patents. It's not clear (to me, anyway) what kind of barriers SNDK's IP provides. But, I think it is clear that SNDK has more techniques for dealing with data in flash than its competitors. Also, the Toshiba JV indicates to me that SNDK has proprietary knowledge (as well as expertise) that Toshiba needs.
Is there a half-way point between King and Gorilla?
SNDK vs SSTI. SSTI maybe a better way to play the flash memory storage arena. SSTI's earnings growth is accelerating at a more rapid pace with more upside potential. Apr 10 on SI
I have read SNDK collects royalties from Hitachi, Intel, Sharp, Samsung, SmartDisk, SST, and Toshiba. I haven't heard any mention of INTC. May 10 on SI
Summary
The profit on the investment skewed EPS last quarter. I see the Mar quarter using adjusted data as the primary reason for a decline. The company is acting cyclical versus having sequential growth in EPS each quarter. Add that Seagate is dumping shares and the collapse become a tidal wave. This leaves what is the fair value of SNDK. I see increased competition in the sector as hurting future dominance in the sector but not necessarily revenue. Sony's introduction of memory sticks show that patents on technology are able to be circumvented. SSTI and AMD will give this company a run for market share. Since I own SNE there is no need to add another competitor to the portfolio. Chart is bearish. Buy when it stabilizes from the end of Seagate selling. Probably $30 at the worst if Nasdaq collapses further. If there was no Seagate selling, then it would be a BUY at the current PE and the leadership position that SNDK occupies.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (342) | 5/21/2000 7:50:00 PM | | From: SirRealist | | | |
Top performers? Stars of 2000.... doesn't look like Steve Harmon's list, does it? LOL
Hey Jack, just heard about your thread and it's already got some mileage on it. Looks great! Keep up the good DD!
Kevin |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote () | 5/21/2000 8:25:00 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | |
W) A zig on ZIGO
Rated a WATCH
Business
Zygo sees the little picture. The company makes precision quality control equipment, including electro-optical measuring instruments, automation systems, and optical components. One of its main products is the interferometer, which measures surface shape, roughness, and other characteristics by means of two light beams ("zygo" is Greek for "pair"). Zygo's products are used to make semiconductors (35% of sales), data storage devices (about 25%), and lasers used in nuclear fusion research. About 45% of its sales are outside the US. Kopp Investment Advisors owns 25% of Zygo. Canon, Zygo's largest customer (22% of sales), owns 11% of the company.
Net sales of modules and components totaled approximately
$6,378,000, an increase of 80% from the comparable quarter in the prior year as a result of strong shipments for motion measurement and optical components to semiconductor industry OEMs.
Firefly's optical storage products enable optical storage manufacturers to build high capacity storage devices. Firefly's telecommunications components are used in wave
division multiplexers to increase the capacity of optical fibers. Firefly also manufactures metrology designed to measure the quality of micro optics and related components. As a result of the merger, Firefly became a wholly-owned
subsidiary of Zygo and became the foundation of a new ivision to be named Zygo TeraOptix.
Competitors
Jenoptik | PE Corporation | Yokogawa Electric per Hoovers
News
March 28, 2000--Zygo Corporation (NASDAQ:ZIGO - news) today announced it had entered into an agreement with IBM to terminate the distribution agreement to market and sell AFM (Atomic Force Microscope) products. As part of the agreement, Zygo has been granted a nonexclusive license to the IBM AFM technology for the next three years, and may continue to license the technology for additional terms thereafter. An additional agreement has been entered into by Zygo with a third party for support and service of AFM products previously sold by Zygo.
NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - Shares of Zygo Corp. ZIGO , a maker of measurement and yield-improvement instruments used in high-tech industries, soared by 44 percent on Wednesday on investor bullishness over a planned acquisition, analysts said. Shares of Middlefield, Conn.-based Zygo jumped 19-9/16 to 64-7/16, up 44 percent, in mid-afternoon trading on Nasdaq. Volume was 1.5 million shares. Zygo said on Tuesday it signed a letter of intent to buy Firefly Technologies of Holliston, Mass., in a stock transaction valued at around $100 million. Analysts said it may have taken the market a while to digest the full import of the planned move. Firefly makes process-measurement equipment for the telecommunications and optical data-storage markets. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of this year. "This acquisition gets them into the optical fiber telecommunications market, which is a high-demand sector," said Jeff Baker, analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group in Minneapolis.
Analysts
08-May-00 09:30 -- 10:00 ET
Zygo Corporation (ZIGO) 44 +3 1/4: ING Barings upgrades to STRONG BUY from BUY; ups price target to $80 from $35 after the company completed its acquisition of Firefly Technologies.
08-Mar-00 14:28 ET
Zygo Corp (ZIGO) 67 3/4 +22 7/8 (+51%): --Update-- Issue surges to new intraday high of $71 13/16 following positive comments by Needham & Co and CNBC mention.
Numbers
Revs 13.1M to 16.3M to 18.0M to 21.3M to 21.7M Mar00 per dailystocks
EPS (.34) to 0.11 to 0.05 to 0.12 to 0.13
Jun EPS est is 0.20
Sep EPS est is 0.14 per Zacks
Market Capitalization $518.4M
Shares Outstanding 14.4M
Float 6.20M
52-Week Low on 2-June-1999 $7.25 per yahoo
Recent Price $36.00
52-Week High on 9-Mar-2000 $74.313
Price/Book (mrq) 5.22 per yahoo
Price/Earnings (ttm) 91.14 per yahoo
Price/Sales (ttm) 5.74 per yahoo
Cash 22.9M per 10Q
No insider sales in 2000
Institutions hold 58% up from 38% three quarters ago.
Internet posts of Note
No we know why ING upgraded Zygo. " ING Barings acted as Zygo's financial advisor and provided the Company's Board of Directors a Fairness Opinion on the transaction. "
5/9/00 on Yahoo
Hope you all got a little ZIGO at 35 area on my reco, now over $70 in a few days.....has hit my target of a 800 million market cap. I'm not sure where it goes from here. 3/9/00 on SI
ZIGO competes with VECO and ZIGO is moving into the fiber optics space, valued at 400 million, worth more like 700-800 million imo, will move up from here, up nicely on low volume today. $35.50, up $4 on 168,000 shares. 2/29/00 on SI
Chart Analysis
Top three updays were green which is bullish. Was in a downward channel since $70 to $23. Then did an upward channel from $23 to $40. Now in consolidation at the mid $30's. MACD flat for two weeks.
Summary
The sequential revenue growth is a problem. PE too high for what I view as a disappointing quarter compared to other in the semiconductor field. Company fairly valued at $26, but not much higher. Dependent on semiconductor boom so this is not what the portfolio needs. Rated a Watch due Firefly. May be cheaper in August.
Jack
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| To: SirRealist who wrote (344) | 5/21/2000 8:38:00 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | |
doesn't look like Steve Harmon's list, does it?
I don't think it looks like anyones list. I find it hard to believe that these 20 are the best performers for the large/mid caps for the year. RMBS, CIEN, SFA, ELON, PWAV were the only ones that I have seen bantered about in December. The key to finding out the other 15 eludes me. Thanks for the words, Kevin. I've bookmarked your thread too.
Jack |
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| To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (346) | 5/21/2000 8:55:00 PM | | From: Jack Hartmann | | | |
Unnatural NMSS
Business
Natural MicroSystems is natural only insofar as the word has evolved to encompass our organic connection with the public switched telephone network and the Internet. OEMs, systems integrators, and value-added resellers use Natural MicroSystems' hardware and software, which are standards-based and compatible across all platforms, to develop communication processing systems for sending data, voice, and fax transmissions over converged networks. The company also provides system consulting and support services. Natural MicroSystems has operations in the Americas, Asia, and Europe. Customers include Lucent Technologies, Motorola, and Siemens.
Competitors
Comverse | Dialogic | Glenayre Technologies per hoovers
News
19-May-00 12:00 -- 13:00 ET
Natural Micro (NMSS) 61 3/8 -3 5/8: Company announces the acquisition of privately held InnoMediaLogic, Inc., a provider of enabling technology used in Voice over Digital Subscriber Line (VoDSL) gateways for stock and cash totaling $155 mln;
Analysts
13-Apr-00 12:00 -- 13:00 ET
Natural Micro (NMSS) 56 +4 1/2: Dain Rauscher Wessels upgrades to STRONG BUY from BUY rating with a price target of $100 after NMSS reported a strong quarter. They raise 2000 and 2001 EPS estimates to $0.50 and $1.45, respectively, from $0.01 and $1.23.
13-Apr-00 09:28 ET
Natural MicroSystems (NMSS) 51 33/64: Designer of hardware and software components for networking and communication equipment suppliers posts Q1 net of $0.01 a share, well above the loss of $0.11 expected by analysts; revenues rose 67% to $27.7 mln.
22-Mar-00 08:30 ET
Natural MicroSystems (NMSS) 54 1/2: DB Alex. Brown upgrades shares of telecommunications hardware and software applications company from BUY to STRONG BUY.
Numbers
Revs 16.6M to 17.6M to 20.3M to 25.0M to 27.7M Mar00 per dailychart
EPS (0.31) to (0.26) to (0.19) to (0.86) to 0.07 Mar00 per dailychart
EPS (0.31) to (0.26) to (0.19) to (0.04)a to 0.01 Mar00 per breifing.com; (a) = Excluding non-recurring items.
EPS est for Jun00 is 0.08E
EPS est for Sep00 is 0.14E
FY00 EPS est is 0.37
FY01 EPS est is 1.40
52-Week Low on 21-May-1999 $5.375
Recent Price $61.125
52-Week High on 22-Mar-2000 $86.50
Price/Book (mrq) 4.39 per yahoo
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 8.48
Market Capitalization $1.00B
Shares Outstanding 16.4M
Float 14.9M
Chart
Big green volume day in March. Tight 10/50/200 day stack.
MACD slightly positive.
Summary
Market cap seems low for the revenue that this one generates.
*******************
More later. Have to pause now,
Jack |
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