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   Technology StocksCree Inc.

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To: Lou Weed who wrote (9890)10/30/2018 3:36:10 PM
From: slacker711
   of 10601
Looks like EVs will be the end application to start the inflection point of the "hockey stick curve" for SiC power semis. Exciting times in the automotive technology space - electrification, autonomous etc. I've started a position with the recent pullback in NVDA to cover the autonomous tech, CREE for the SiC tech and will start to look at Ford or GM to see which of those ponies might run furthest in this space. All longer term for the retirement fund :-)

I have been adding to my NVDA position as well. Semi content in autos is going to increase even if we dont get full autonomy anytime soon. It looks like EV efforts are accelerating though we'll have to see whether the car vendors manage to execute on their plans. At a minimum, China looks like they will push EV hard and car vendors will have to respond to that.

The various earnings calls have also confirmed that 5G is doing very well. I still dont have a handle though on whether GaN on SiC is a requirement for small cells which will make up a large part of 5G deployments.


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From: slacker71111/1/2018 7:52:09 AM
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Lots of discussion of GaN (on SiC) during the Qorvo call.

Much more at the link.

Shipments of 5G solutions were a record in support of multiple leading base station customers. GaN based revenue increased 27% year-over-year, driven by broad market demand, including 5G infrastructure.


In the base station market, 5G is helping to drive a rapid shift in power amplifiers from silicon LDMOS to GaN. We expect the trend to accelerate, with approximately half of the power amplifier market transitioning to GaN in the next few years.


James L. Klein - Qorvo, Inc.

Yeah, as I've stated many times, I mean we see that overall GaN market again, defense, broadband, cable and wireless infrastructure, that market is going to grow in the low to mid-20s. I think we'll do significantly better than that as we go forward. You saw that in this last quarter. That was driven a lot by Defense, but we are now really beginning the start of production deliveries around these 5G deployments and massive MIMO deployments.

I think one thing I want to talk a little bit, while we're on massive MIMO is we definitely are seeing the OEMs start those deployments. Over the next couple of years, probably maybe three years, we expect that 20% or 30% of the RUs will be massive MIMO antennas. What that does for us, it results in about a 4x of the number of channels, about a 8x to 12x increase in content for us. So, that's going to drive a significant amount of GaN demand as we go through these deployments in 5G over the next several years.

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From: slacker71111/1/2018 8:11:36 AM
   of 10601
Cree said that they have north of 65% of the current SiC wafer market right now.

Rohm aims for top notch of SiC component market

Roger Huang, Kyoto; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES Tuesday 30 October 2018 0 Toggle Dropdown

Rohm Semiconductor is expanding its production capacity for SiC (silicon carbide)-based wafers and components as it aims to become the world's largest supplier of SiC power components with a 30% share by 2025, according to Mineo Miura, manager of high power device division of product planning department of the Japan-based semiconductor company.

By March 2025, Rohm will have invested at least JPY60 billion (US$535.86 million) for capacity ramps, mainly including JPY20 billion for expanding the capacity of its SiC component manufacturing plant in Chikugo, Fukuoka, and JPY40 billion for ramping up SiC wafer output, Miura said.

With its properties including resisting to high temperature and high pressure, less losses for power conversion and enabling smaller module form factors, the adoption of SiC-based power components is proliferating in a number of segments, including electric vehicles, industrial-control equipment, energy and server/datacenter and therefore the potential growth of SiC power components is highly regarded, Miura stated.

Based on the company's data, Rohm started mass production of SiC power components such as SiC Schottky diodes and MOSFETs in 2010 and has also since then maintained a leading position for the production of SiC power modules and SiC trench MOSFETS.

Citing data from market research firms, the global SiC market is forecast to exceed US$2.3 billion by 2025, Miura said. But he added that the market could expand to as much as NT$3.4 billion by 2025 if the pace of SiC replacing IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor) products accelerates.

To meet future demand, Rohm will continue to adhere to its established business model: running its own fab to minimize the crystal defects of SiC and leveraging its patented double-trench structure to enhance the reliability of its SiC components.

Rohm's acquisition of SiC wafer supplier SiCrystal in 2009 has now become an advantage for the company, not only making Rohm (SiCrystal) the world's second largest supplier of SiC wafers, trailing after only Cree's Wolfspeed, but also enabling Rohm to have steady supplies of SiC wafers.

Rohm is currently fabricating SiC wafers of up to 6-inch size, as the SiC industry is beginning to develop 8-inch wafers.

The expansion project of the Chikugo plant is scheduled for completion by the end of 2020 with volume production to start in 2021. The packaging processes of SiC components will be carried out in Koyto, Korea and Thailand, Miura revealed.

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From: slacker71111/8/2018 9:55:47 PM
   of 10601
Cree upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee upgraded Cree to Buy with a price target of $58, saying his more in-depth field work and market analysis around the company's silicon carbide opportunity has made hime "incrementally more bullish" on its growth potential. The analyst notes that the silicon carbide market could reach $4B over the coming decade, stating that Cree is one of the unique and more pure-play ways to gain leverage to its investment theme. The analyst further cites the company's incumbency status of up to 30% market share along with its "unique vertically integrated positioning".

Read more at:

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From: slacker71111/9/2018 11:00:01 AM
   of 10601
Arrow Electronics Expands Distribution Agreement with Cree, Inc.’s Wolfspeed Division
Extended Agreement Includes Wolfspeed’s RF and Power Products

November 09, 2018 10:10 AM Eastern Standard Time
CENTENNIAL, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Arrow Electronics, Inc. (NYSE: ARW) today announced an expanded agreement with Cree, Inc.’s Wolfspeed division (NASDAQ: CREE). The new agreement positions Arrow Electronics as Cree’s largest global distributor for Wolfspeed’s industry-leading silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) on SiC product portfolio.

“We are pleased to build upon and expand our franchise to include both Wolfspeed’s power and RF solutions,” said David West, senior vice president of global marketing and engineering at Arrow. “This agreement offers our customers a greater range of technology options that will enable continuous product innovation.”

“Wolfspeed’s heritage as a pioneer of GaN-on-SiC technology for RF applications is well established and offers an attractive value proposition to our customers who are evolving the technology marketplace,” said Rafael R. Salmi, Ph.D., president of Richardson RFPD. “This agreement offers a strategic advantage in that we can now provide the optimal RF power solutions to meet our customers’ diverse needs.”

“We are committed to ensuring our customers have access to our superior SiC-based semiconductor devices,” said Thomas Wessel, senior vice president of global sales and marketing. “Arrow’s global sales force enables us to reach more markets and customers quicker and more efficiently through a proven partner solution.”

Arrow will be featuring an IoT-connected 150 kW off-board charging station that relies upon Wolfspeed’s SiC technology in their booth #412 at Electronica in Munich, Germany, Nov. 13-16.

About Arrow Electronics

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From: slacker71111/15/2018 10:12:42 AM
   of 10601
China Is Leading the World to an Electric Car Future

New emission rules will force global carmakers to redraw their road maps.
Bloomberg News
November 14, 2018, 3:00 PM CST Updated on November 15, 2018, 4:01 AM CST

China Could Soon Become the Detroit of Electric Cars

The world’s biggest market for electric vehicles wants to get even bigger, so it’s giving automakers what amounts to an ultimatum. Starting in January, all major manufacturers operating in China—from global giants Toyota Motor and General Motors to domestic players BYD and BAIC Motor—have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs (plug-in hybrids, pure-battery electrics, and fuel-cell autos). A complex government equation requires that a sizable portion of their production or imports must be green in 2019, with escalating goals thereafter.

The regime resembles the cap-and-trade systems being deployed worldwide for carbon emissions: Carmakers that don’t meet the quota themselves can purchase credits from rivals that exceed it. But if they can’t buy enough credits, they face government fines or, in a worst-case scenario, having their assembly lines shut down.

“The pressure is mounting,” says Yunshi Wang, director of the China Center for Energy and Transportation at the University of California at Davis. “This could be a model for other countries; it could be a game changer globally.”

The message coming from the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases is clear: Even as President Trump withdraws support for alternative fuels, attempts to gut mileage requirements, and begins the process of pulling out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, China is dead serious about leading the way to an electrified future. That would help it reduce a dependence on imported oil and blow away the smog choking its cities. It would also help domestic automakers gain more expertise in a car manufacturing segment that’s burgeoning globally.

Electric Vehicle Sales

Data: Bloomberg Intelligence

Given the size of the Chinese market, the largest for cars overall and for EVs, auto companies will have to rapidly accelerate their development and manufacturing efforts to meet the targets. By 2025, China’s leaders want 7 million cars sold every year, or about 20 percent of the total, to be plug-in hybrids or battery-powered. “This is probably the single most important piece of EV legislation in the world,” Bloomberg NEF said in May.

The world’s largest automaker is certainly taking notice. Volkswagen AG, which sold just under 40 percent of its vehicles in China last year, says it will introduce about 40 locally produced NEV models in China within the next decade. “Volkswagen Group China will meet the government’s targets,” the company said in a statement.

China Is About to Shake Up the World of Electric Cars

The formula for doing so is algebraic, and the 10 percent credit target in the first year won’t necessarily equate to 10 percent of cars sold. For example, a pure-electric vehicle with a range topping 300 kilometers (186 miles) will generate more credits than one with lesser performance or than a gasoline-electric hybrid. The rules apply to all companies that manufacture or import more than 30,000 cars annually. The floor rises to 12 percent in 2020, then keeps increasing in line with the government’s ultimate plan to eliminate fossil fuel vehicles by a still-unspecified date.

BMW AG, which sells more cars in China than anywhere else, makes two plug-in hybrids there and plans to produce two pure-electric cars, including the iX3 SUV, starting in 2020. Yet some companies will struggle to reach the goals under their own steam. “Carmaker s are both technically and commercially not ready for a ramp-up in EV production to the level of the quotas,” says Sophie Shen, an automotive analyst at PwC in Shanghai.

So they’re turning to a wide range of solutions to avoid falling short. Ford Motor Co., which lost $378 million in China in the third quarter, is teaming up with Zotye Automobile Co., a minor domestic player, to jointly produce cars eligible for the credits, Asia-Pacific President Peter Fleet said in October. Ford will introduce at least 15 hybrids and EVs in China by 2025. Vehicles sold through the Zotye partnership will have a new brand name.

Some rivals, however, are putting their names on the same generic car. Toyota, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Honda Motor, and Mitsubishi Motors all plan to sell the same electric SUV, developed by Guangzhou Automobile Group, to Chinese drivers. Other than brand-specific pricing and specifications, the models will be largely identical. That’s not ideal in an industry that prizes distinctive marketing, but it’s a necessary compromise until the companies develop their own technologies.

While carmakers have plenty of regulatory reasons to flood Chinese showrooms with EVs, it’s not clear that consumers will want them. Electric cars remain considerably more expensive than their gasoline counterparts everywhere; in China, where gasoline cars such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Co.’s Benben Mini model sell for as little as 29,900 yuan ($4,300), the difference can be especially pronounced.

For now, government subsidies for EVs cover much of that gap, running to as much as $7,900 for an all-electric vehicle with a range longer than 400km. That can offset almost one-third of the sticker price of a BYD e5 electric car.

Read more about the future of transportation.
The incentives, though, are being phased out and will disappear in 2021. That could mean a risky several years for automakers, since battery costs aren’t expected to be truly price-competitive with internal combustion engines until 2024 to 2028, depending on a vehicle’s type and the region of the globe where it’s sold, according to BNEF.

Still, the government has other levers should demand fall short. Several of the largest cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, limit the number of cars on their roads by restricting the issuance of new license plates. In those metropolises, simply acquiring the right to purchase a car can be pricey. A plate for a traditional gas guzzler costs as much as $14,000 in Shanghai. But if a consumer decides on an EV instead, it’s free.

BNEF already expects 2.5 million passenger EVs to be sold in China in 2022. But if similar restrictions take off in other cities, particularly the rapidly growing industrial hubs of the interior, EV growth could be even more dramatic.

For the moment, domestic models will mostly remain confined to the Chinese market. “Right now a lot of the cars selling in China have zero brand value outside of China,” says Janet Lewis, the head of industrials and transportation research for Asia at investment bank Macquarie Capital. But the EVs that are successful in the early-adopting mainland market may eventually help China develop the manufacturing and branding expertise it will need to export more vehicles to other countries, experts say.

China undoubtedly will tweak its credit-and-subsidy regime as it seeks to encourage an electric-first domestic auto industry. The minimum thresholds of the cap-and-trade system for 2021 and beyond haven’t been laid out, though they’ll have to rise rapidly to meet government sales targets for NEVs.

It’s a direction of travel that couldn’t be more different from that of the Trump administration. But for global carmakers, it’s increasingly clear that policymakers in Beijing, not Washington, are in the driver’s seat. —Matthew Campbell and Tian Ying

— With assistance by Yan Zhang, Keith Naughton, Christoph Rauwald, and Oliver Sachgau

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To: slacker711 who wrote (9896)11/15/2018 10:16:40 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 10601

Another centralized government blunder of mammoth proportions.


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To: slacker711 who wrote (9896)11/16/2018 7:29:03 AM
From: Lou Weed
   of 10601
Thanks Slacker - if I remember from one of the last earnings calls I believe they said that they're already in cahoots with BYD on their on-board chargers and drivetrain?


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To: robert b furman who wrote (9897)11/16/2018 7:31:50 AM
From: Lou Weed
   of 10601
….and this would be pertinent to Cree in what way??


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To: Lou Weed who wrote (9898)11/16/2018 7:48:43 AM
From: slacker711
   of 10601
I cant remember Cree saying that they were dealing directly with BYD. A brief Google search didnt turn anything up, but if you have a source, I'd love to see it.

China is aggressively moving towards EV sales. If they continue down this path, all of the out year estimates for SiC sales should end up low.


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