From: teevee | 6/5/2024 4:39:51 PM | | | | the transition from Si to SiC semiconductors is underway. Given WOLF's' leaderhip in SiC, I won't be surprised if a big semiconductor company makes a hostile and predatory offer to position itself in the transition. |
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To: teevee who wrote (10634) | 8/8/2024 11:27:05 AM | From: Lou Weed | | | Pretty obvious to say that Mr. Lowe has driven this pig right into the ground. I do have to thank him though for presenting a nice buying opp yesterday at a 15 year low. They need to be taken over immediately. I'm guessing it'll be before the end of the year...... |
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To: Lou Weed who wrote (10635) | 8/8/2024 6:38:05 PM | From: teevee | | | yes, I was buying in the low to mid 20's and averaged down. If this drops below 10, it will force lots more selling. Looking at the options chains, the pain isn't over yet. |
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From: Ron | 8/13/2024 8:23:10 PM | | | | Earnings are August 21st. Not expecting much, although they have been making good progress on their new manufacturing plant in central NC. Their German plant has been delayed again, however: msn.com |
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To: Ron who wrote (10637) | 8/13/2024 9:03:44 PM | From: teevee | | | SiC is essential to expanding the electrical grid, greater electrical appliance efficiency, EV's, hybrids, storage batteries, AI and sever farms needed to build out AI. Given WOLF's expertise and market position, I believe this is a lifetime opportunity to position in a company where the entire semiconductor sector is headed.... |
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From: teevee | 8/14/2024 10:01:21 AM | | | | SiC is where semiconductors are headed, including SiC as a preferred base for photonic semiconductors. My main worry about WOLF is that the upside will be captured by a larger semiconductor company that makes a hostile offer for the company. |
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To: teevee who wrote (10639) | 8/14/2024 10:15:29 AM | From: slacker711 | | | I think the main worry is that they have been incompetent at manufacturing for roughly 20 years and that continues with Mohawk.
Lowe did everything else right. Design wins, funding, building the new fab, but none of it matters if you continuously screw up the manufacturing. |
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To: slacker711 who wrote (10640) | 8/14/2024 11:38:37 AM | From: teevee | | | I doubt they screwed up the manufacturing, rather it points to how difficult growing semiconductor grade SiC crystals of any size really is. This is why customers who ventured down the road of growing/manufacturing their own SiC crystals have come back to WOLF for long term supply contracts. It also points out how difficult it is to scale up to meet growing demand. The benefits of SiC make WOLF critical to the semiconductor, EV and all things electrical supply chain. |
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To: teevee who wrote (10641) | 8/14/2024 11:48:14 AM | From: slacker711 | | | rather it points to how difficult growing semiconductor grade SiC crystals of any size really is.
Yes, that was my thesis.
However reality intruded on my forecasts. Take a look at ON's results. They have over 50% of their substrates coming from internal production and went from zero to roughly a billion in SiC sales over the last 4 years.
Management likes to attribute the problems to the fact that Durham is an outdated fab, but MVF is a year behind schedule as well.
I think the stock probably works if they can get the MVF ramp right going forward (and shut down Durham) but the idea that Wolfspeed's experience would allow them to dominate new competitors in SiC is dead and buried. |
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