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   Technology StocksCree Inc.


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From: slacker7118/19/2021 10:20:10 AM
2 Recommendations   of 10477
 
The two parts of the earnings call that I found most interesting.

unhedged.com

Reynolds straight out says that the $1.5 billion revenue guide is now low.

And what type of cost that is, I mean probably if you go back to January and the CapEx plan that we laid out when we launched 200-millimeter, this is largely the same plan. What we're trying to do is capture the capacity and the revenue in such a way by pulling in that same plan anywhere we can to drive more capacity. So some of that was going over '23 and '24. Some of that was materials expansion for facilities and things like that. So you can think about it as being -- maybe pulling in roughly $100 million maybe versus what we anticipated before. But with the expectation that as we get out to '23 and '24, we can meet a higher revenue level than we had anticipated previously in the $1.5 billion plan.


and management gave some hard numbers around the anticipated savings around Mohawk.

Let me just kind of spell that out a little bit in further detail. I think If you think about the differences between North Carolina and Mohawk Valley, wafer cost, for instance, in Mohawk Valley will be more than 50% lower than what we currently have in Durham. And that's not completely including the full benefit of moving from 150-millimeter to 200-millimeter at diameter change. Cycle times in Mohawk Valley will be 50% greater or better than what we have -- so 50% better than what we have in Durham. And then lastly, the yield in Mohawk Valley will be 20% to 30% -- sorry, 20 to 30 points higher than what we have currently in Durham.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (10417)8/19/2021 10:50:44 AM
From: slacker711
1 Recommendation   of 10477
 
Also, this from the 10k. Capex is much larger than they are indicating.

sec.gov

For fiscal 2022, we target approximately $475.0 million of net capital investment, which is primarily related to capacity and infrastructure projects to support longer-term growth and strategic priorities. This target is highly dependent on the timing and overall progress on the construction of our new silicon carbide fabrication facility in New York and is net of approximately $300.0 million of expected reimbursements from the State of New York Urban Development Corporation under the GDA.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (10417)8/21/2021 11:15:55 AM
From: EvanG
   of 10477
 
Reynolds straight out says that the $1.5 billion revenue guide is now low.

2021 has turned out to be a massive growth year for SiC. Yole majorly revised up their 2021 estimates but they didn't revise later years. 2024 has yet to be revised up, it doesn't make sense that it just fizzles out.

Infineon SiC revenue will be up 100% in its FY21. STMicroelectronics SiC revenue will be up at least 80% in its FY21. If you back out II-VI SiC revenue from their transcripts, SiC revenue was up at least 50% in their just reported FY21. Growth in just those 3 companies combined for over 70% of Cree yearly revenue, pretty significant.

Yole estimate from Q2 2021:


Yole estimate from Q1 2020:

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To: EvanG who wrote (10419)8/25/2021 9:10:00 AM
From: slacker711
1 Recommendation   of 10477
 
An "Ask the expert" session covering ST's SiC portfolio and plans.

youtu.be


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To: slacker711 who wrote (10420)8/25/2021 5:18:38 PM
From: EvanG
   of 10477
 
STMicroelectronics was guiding to $450-$500 million for 2021 in their 4Q20 call. Then updated it to $550 million in 1Q21 call.

With most of growth in 2nd half, was expecting Cree guidance to be stronger because of that. The part of Malaysia that was locked down, was down for a good portion of July so perhaps that explains it.

But going from a run rate of $300 million in 4Q20 to $550 million for 2021 is a sizable wafer revenue going somewhere over the 2nd half of this year.

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From: slacker7118/26/2021 7:43:47 AM
1 Recommendation   of 10477
 
onsemi buying GTAT for $415 million.

I think they needed to accelerate their internal supply. First 150mm boules in Q4 '22 and 200mm in Q4 '24 was both an unrealistic schedule and yet still not fast enough.

It is hard to evaluate GTAT. Their history makes me skeptical but they had won contracts with both onsemi and Infineon.

s27.q4cdn.com


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To: EvanG who wrote (10421)8/26/2021 9:52:09 AM
From: slacker711
1 Recommendation   of 10477
 
With most of growth in 2nd half, was expecting Cree guidance to be stronger because of that. The part of Malaysia that was locked down, was down for a good portion of July so perhaps that explains it.




They said that Malaysia was a $5-$7m impact in the guidance for the current quarter.

They didn't break out how much of the >$100m in unfulfilled demand for the fiscal year was going to be left on the table for the current quarter. Presumably, that number will ramp through the fiscal year before the Mohawk ramp starts to be felt in the 2nd half of calendar '22.

Maybe they could have given guidance for ~$170m without the supply issues?

Regardless though, the STM numbers likely indicate that they are ramping some internal supply in the 2nd half. We'll see whether they break out any numbers going forward.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (10423)8/27/2021 9:40:08 AM
From: EvanG
   of 10477
 
They didn't break out how much of the >$100m in unfulfilled demand for the fiscal year was going to be left on the table for the current quarter. Presumably, that number will ramp through the fiscal year before the Mohawk ramp starts to be felt in the 2nd half of calendar '22.

It is very much a mystery to me why Wolfspeed revenue did what it did over the last 2.5 years. Yole is confused enough that they think Cree power device revenue was flat from 2019 to 2020. So how 2 quarters later it suddenly became capacity constrained doesn't make sense. Guessing it really isn't, they just don't want high expectations out of Durham.

Personally I hate watching fab startups, seems like they always take much longer than anticipated. Don't know if I have seen one of these take less than a year to be automotive certified but not sure when the process would have started.

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To: EvanG who wrote (10424)8/27/2021 12:43:45 PM
From: slacker711
1 Recommendation   of 10477
 
My theory has been that RF revs fell off a cliff but they rarely talk about RF anymore (including the LDMOS revs) so it is impossible to say if this was the case.

The underlying problem is that Cree still doesn't break out the revenues within Wolfspeed. It is absurd that they have a single division and give total group revenues without giving the split between materials and devices.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (10425)8/27/2021 2:48:03 PM
From: Lou Weed
   of 10477
 
I've always seen this as problematic also. You can get some numbers from Yole about the rev split but that's just market research. Best guesstimates would be 45/30/25 split Materials/RF/Power?

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