| To: slacker711 who wrote (10414) | 8/21/2021 11:15:55 AM | | From: EvanG | | | | Reynolds straight out says that the $1.5 billion revenue guide is now low.
2021 has turned out to be a massive growth year for SiC. Yole majorly revised up their 2021 estimates but they didn't revise later years. 2024 has yet to be revised up, it doesn't make sense that it just fizzles out.
Infineon SiC revenue will be up 100% in its FY21. STMicroelectronics SiC revenue will be up at least 80% in its FY21. If you back out II-VI SiC revenue from their transcripts, SiC revenue was up at least 50% in their just reported FY21. Growth in just those 3 companies combined for over 70% of Cree yearly revenue, pretty significant.
Yole estimate from Q2 2021:
Yole estimate from Q1 2020:
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| To: slacker711 who wrote (10417) | 8/25/2021 5:18:38 PM | | From: EvanG | | | | STMicroelectronics was guiding to $450-$500 million for 2021 in their 4Q20 call. Then updated it to $550 million in 1Q21 call.
With most of growth in 2nd half, was expecting Cree guidance to be stronger because of that. The part of Malaysia that was locked down, was down for a good portion of July so perhaps that explains it.
But going from a run rate of $300 million in 4Q20 to $550 million for 2021 is a sizable wafer revenue going somewhere over the 2nd half of this year. |
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| From: slacker711 | 8/26/2021 7:43:47 AM | | | | | | onsemi buying GTAT for $415 million.
I think they needed to accelerate their internal supply. First 150mm boules in Q4 '22 and 200mm in Q4 '24 was both an unrealistic schedule and yet still not fast enough.
It is hard to evaluate GTAT. Their history makes me skeptical but they had won contracts with both onsemi and Infineon.
s27.q4cdn.com
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| To: EvanG who wrote (10418) | 8/26/2021 9:52:09 AM | | From: slacker711 | | | | With most of growth in 2nd half, was expecting Cree guidance to be stronger because of that. The part of Malaysia that was locked down, was down for a good portion of July so perhaps that explains it.
They said that Malaysia was a $5-$7m impact in the guidance for the current quarter.
They didn't break out how much of the >$100m in unfulfilled demand for the fiscal year was going to be left on the table for the current quarter. Presumably, that number will ramp through the fiscal year before the Mohawk ramp starts to be felt in the 2nd half of calendar '22.
Maybe they could have given guidance for ~$170m without the supply issues?
Regardless though, the STM numbers likely indicate that they are ramping some internal supply in the 2nd half. We'll see whether they break out any numbers going forward. |
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| To: slacker711 who wrote (10420) | 8/27/2021 9:40:08 AM | | From: EvanG | | | | They didn't break out how much of the >$100m in unfulfilled demand for the fiscal year was going to be left on the table for the current quarter. Presumably, that number will ramp through the fiscal year before the Mohawk ramp starts to be felt in the 2nd half of calendar '22.
It is very much a mystery to me why Wolfspeed revenue did what it did over the last 2.5 years. Yole is confused enough that they think Cree power device revenue was flat from 2019 to 2020. So how 2 quarters later it suddenly became capacity constrained doesn't make sense. Guessing it really isn't, they just don't want high expectations out of Durham.
Personally I hate watching fab startups, seems like they always take much longer than anticipated. Don't know if I have seen one of these take less than a year to be automotive certified but not sure when the process would have started. |
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| To: EvanG who wrote (10421) | 8/27/2021 12:43:45 PM | | From: slacker711 | | | | My theory has been that RF revs fell off a cliff but they rarely talk about RF anymore (including the LDMOS revs) so it is impossible to say if this was the case.
The underlying problem is that Cree still doesn't break out the revenues within Wolfspeed. It is absurd that they have a single division and give total group revenues without giving the split between materials and devices. |
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| To: Lou Weed who wrote (10423) | 8/27/2021 5:05:12 PM | | From: EvanG | | | | Best guesstimates would be 45/30/25 split Materials/RF/Power?
From the 4Q21 call:
I would anticipate to Jed -- Ed, I'm sorry is that when we look at our plans for 2024 at $1.5 billion we were projecting that roughly $600 million of that was going to be devices.
And about $900 million of that was going -- excuse me $600 million was going to be materials and $900 million was going to be devices. Actually we are anticipating that our device business will be growing faster than the materials business through that timeframe of 2024. And it will most likely accelerate as a percentage of the business beyond 2024 as we start seeing customer ramp with the you know the $1 billion of device wins that we just posted this first previous quarter.
$600 million in materials out of $1.5 billion would be 40%. If the device business is growing faster than materials through 2024, then it would seem materials might be much larger than 45% currently. |
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