| To: slacker711 who wrote (10388) | 7/12/2021 7:54:54 PM | | From: EvanG | | | | FWIW, I doubt that they are going to fund much of their next fab. They received $500 million in subsidies before semis were considered a national priority by every region.
Cree needed to raise $500 million in February for the current fab. STM is investing $1.8 billion to $2 billion in CAPEX this year, which includes pulling forward their SiC substrate efforts. Just saying that size investment barely dents their finances and they didn't need to dilute their shareholders.
It will probably be 24 month before we can even begin to see what the results look like with the ramp of the Mohawk fab.
Gregg Lowe keeps making it sound like it will be early next year. Think 24 months would be a surprise to most investors. |
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| To: EvanG who wrote (10391) | 7/12/2021 9:04:16 PM | | From: slacker711 | | | | Cree needed to raise $500 million in February for the current fab.
The question isn't whether they are self funding now. That is obviously not the case but whether they will be in the future. I think that decent execution on the 200mm fab will get them there.
I also don't think that they will be supplying half the capex required on their next fab.
STM is investing $1.8 billion to $2 billion in CAPEX this year, which includes pulling forward their SiC substrate efforts. Just saying that size investment barely dents their finances and they didn't need to dilute their shareholders.
STM has guided for $1 billion in SiC revenue in 2025 which will be substantially less than 10% of their total revenue. I have no doubt that they will beat that number handily but the vast majority of their capex is going to non SiC projects.
Gregg Lowe keeps making it sound like it will be early next year. Think 24 months would be a surprise to most investors.
First wafers and qualification samples in the 1st half of 2022. First revs in the 2nd half of 2022. Margins and yields will suck at the beginning of the ramp so the 1st half of calendar 2023 is when I think we can start saying anything definitive about their choice of 200mm. |
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| To: slacker711 who wrote (10396) | 7/12/2021 9:17:11 PM | | From: Lou Weed | | | | | Cree/Wolfspeed's disadvantage is that they are truly a one-trick pony now. With LED gone, they are completely relying on Materials, Power and RF components for revenue. Their advantage in Materials (that accounts for more than 80% of their revenues in 2020) is being slowly eroded by II-VI and a plethora of Chinese players are on the horizon. I believe Greg Lowe is prettying them up to be acquired but the only problem is their valuation is so prohibitive right now....... |
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| To: slacker711 who wrote (10396) | 7/13/2021 7:36:27 PM | | From: EvanG | | | | STM has guided for $1 billion in SiC revenue in 2025 which will be substantially less than 10% of their total revenue. I have no doubt that they will beat that number handily but the vast majority of their capex is going to non SiC projects.
Access to capital is never a bad problem, mix will shift over time. As revenue scales OPEX does not scale linearly with it. Purchasing power also improves. A bigger company drives cost efficiencies that drives better product pricing which drives better revenue. All of those other product lines become very important to their SiC development.
It is an advantage to some of these companies for SiC to be high CAPEX, very process intensive with complicated chips. Creates barriers to entry. The size of a company and the efficiency it can generate as a result can also be a barrier. |
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