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   Technology StocksCree Inc.


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To: EvanG who wrote (10390)7/12/2021 2:17:30 PM
From: slacker711
   of 10481
 
I highly expect that not long after 200mm goes into mass production that 300mm is demonstrated. If Cree wants an advantage they need to not be outgunned on EBITDA by everyone of their competitors and that means making money, something they have consistently been unable to do.

We are in limbo with Cree right now. The valuation is ludicrous based on current results and extremely rich based on the FY'24 guidance given in Nov '19. It will probably be 24 month before we can even begin to see what the results look like with the ramp of the Mohawk fab.

In other words, it is going to be a while before we can prove or disprove your skepticism.


FWIW, I doubt that they are going to fund much of their next fab. They received $500 million in subsidies before semis were considered a national priority by every region.

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From: slacker7117/12/2021 5:21:13 PM
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This might be a little over the top.


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To: slacker711 who wrote (10392)7/12/2021 5:25:24 PM
From: Lou Weed
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Probably needs to off-load a bunch and wants to squeeze one last time. These guys are worse than car salesmen.....

Disclaimer:- if any car salesman/woman reads and gets offended - I don't care :-)

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To: slacker711 who wrote (10391)7/12/2021 7:54:54 PM
From: EvanG
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FWIW, I doubt that they are going to fund much of their next fab. They received $500 million in subsidies before semis were considered a national priority by every region.

Cree needed to raise $500 million in February for the current fab. STM is investing $1.8 billion to $2 billion in CAPEX this year, which includes pulling forward their SiC substrate efforts. Just saying that size investment barely dents their finances and they didn't need to dilute their shareholders.

It will probably be 24 month before we can even begin to see what the results look like with the ramp of the Mohawk fab.

Gregg Lowe keeps making it sound like it will be early next year. Think 24 months would be a surprise to most investors.

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To: Lou Weed who wrote (10393)7/12/2021 7:57:58 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 10481
 
OUCH!

U R BAD! <smile>

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (10395)7/12/2021 8:35:28 PM
From: Lou Weed
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LOL......note I put the smiley face afterwards!

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To: Lou Weed who wrote (10396)7/12/2021 9:00:59 PM
From: robert b furman
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LOL,

You know as being a used car salesman for 25 years, my skin got thick a long time ago.

I can take a joke just fine amigo. <smile>

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (10397)7/12/2021 9:02:42 PM
From: Lou Weed
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LOL - you're a good man Bob. One of WI's finest :-)

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To: EvanG who wrote (10394)7/12/2021 9:04:16 PM
From: slacker711
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Cree needed to raise $500 million in February for the current fab.

The question isn't whether they are self funding now. That is obviously not the case but whether they will be in the future. I think that decent execution on the 200mm fab will get them there.

I also don't think that they will be supplying half the capex required on their next fab.

STM is investing $1.8 billion to $2 billion in CAPEX this year, which includes pulling forward their SiC substrate efforts. Just saying that size investment barely dents their finances and they didn't need to dilute their shareholders.




STM has guided for $1 billion in SiC revenue in 2025 which will be substantially less than 10% of their total revenue. I have no doubt that they will beat that number handily but the vast majority of their capex is going to non SiC projects.

Gregg Lowe keeps making it sound like it will be early next year. Think 24 months would be a surprise to most investors.


First wafers and qualification samples in the 1st half of 2022. First revs in the 2nd half of 2022. Margins and yields will suck at the beginning of the ramp so the 1st half of calendar 2023 is when I think we can start saying anything definitive about their choice of 200mm.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (10399)7/12/2021 9:17:11 PM
From: Lou Weed
   of 10481
 
Cree/Wolfspeed's disadvantage is that they are truly a one-trick pony now. With LED gone, they are completely relying on Materials, Power and RF components for revenue. Their advantage in Materials (that accounts for more than 80% of their revenues in 2020) is being slowly eroded by II-VI and a plethora of Chinese players are on the horizon. I believe Greg Lowe is prettying them up to be acquired but the only problem is their valuation is so prohibitive right now.......

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