| To: Professor Dotcomm who wrote (55) | 2/17/2000 6:25:00 AM | | From: Andrew C.R. Biddle | | | |
Interesting: I got my CTW e-mail news this morning and there was an item about ERTS's James Bond title "The World is Not Enough" for PC, PSX, and Dreamcast and GBC.
Yet when I went to their site, the story was not there.
ctw.co.uk
Andrew |
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| To: vc21 who wrote () | 2/23/2000 7:47:00 PM | | From: Schiz | | | |
It's been kinda quiet around here lately.
Perhaps when the sector starts to recover things will pick up.
To pump up my favorite little stock a bit-
THDO seems to be holding up very well, it actually hit a new 52 week closing high today. Actually, I thinks it's been about 2.5 years since we've been this high.
For good reason(my opinion of course).
Estimates for q4 are .40 per share. That's incredible. In order to achieve this they will need close to 100mm in revenue (probably more, assuming my math skills are adequate). James Lin, likely the most bullish analyst was predicting 109mm for the entire fy00 (back in feb '99).
If they meet the current estimates on 100mm+ in revenue, they will have 175mm in revenue for fy00, up from 48mm in fy99. Also .15 per share profit on the year. Both those numbers are roughly 50% higher than they were estimated to be last year at this time, the profit probably more cause the .11 cited in the article was probably based on a significantly smaller share count than the .15 is. The 109mm and .11 info is in a forbes article. Go to forbes and search for thdo. The article is dated early feb '99.
Current estimates for fy01 are around .60 per share. I'm not sure about revenue estimates. They were around 200mm as of about 6 or 8 months ago but I would think the estimated revs are much higher now.
There's a ton of other stuff I could get into but there simply isn't enough time. If I were I would mention Trip & his team, insider activity, patents, business model, brand leveraging and maybe a couple other things.
Maybe I'm a little too fired up. Overly optimistic? |
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| To: vc21 who wrote (59) | 3/6/2000 9:01:00 PM | | From: Schiz | | | |
Ha, you're a funny guy.
Don't blame thdo for the valuation of thqi.
It's very difficult to compare thqi to thdo. There are a number of fundamental differences between the business models and while thdo's track record is much shorter than thqi's, thdo is growing revenues at a really incredible pace. Also, the analysts have them turning profitable this fy which ends in march. THDO also has two patents related to internet gaming. I would say that there are quite a few investors that do not think thdo is overvalued at it's currentl level. Look at the volume and price trend since the start of February. The street is starting to take notice of thdo. If Trip and co. can continue to execute as they have, $15 could look cheap in hindsight.
Basically seeing as it is pretty clear that thdo is not overvalued, thqi must be undervalued.
I'll buy some thqi when I can trade in thdo one for one.
Maybe
Just a quick note to put thdo growth in perspective. The amount of EARNINGS estimated for this QUARTER exceeds the PUBLISHING REVENUE for the entire 98 fiscal YEAR. (rough numbers 16mm profit vs 10mm revenue)
That's impressive.
From basically nowhere to here in two years. Imagine where they will be two years from now if they continue to execute as they have been. Never understimate the power of the tripster.
Good luck with thqi. Assuming they meet the fy01 estimates, I think it's pretty safe to say that they are undervalued. Perhaps a good buying opportunity.
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| To: Schiz who wrote (60) | 3/7/2000 12:48:00 AM | | From: vc21 | | | |
Let me put something in perspective for you. Trip and Co spent 14 million last quarter to sell 40 million in games. Farrell and Co. spent 13 million to sell 130 million in games. Sure, your revenue is ramping but your expenses are going along for the ride.
And don't start with the patents. Next you'll tell me they own a piece of CDMA. I'm not blaming 3DO for the valuation of THQ. And I stand entirely by my statement that either 3DO is overvalued or THQ is undervalued. As for waiting for a 3DO:THQ one to one ratio? Well, it may happen. It probably will happen. But regardless, you've got bigger huevos than I do.
Regards,
Funny Guy
PS - When you say continue to execute, can I take that to mean further exploit Army Men and M & M beyond the total saturation 3DO currently has them at or is there some real execution in the works at 3DO?
PPS- Regarding your internet patents. Ask some knowledgeable 3DO people about the Wintergreen project. I think the name was finally changed to Pipe Dream. |
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| To: vc21 who wrote (61) | 3/7/2000 10:52:00 PM | | From: Schiz | | | |
VC, You should double check your numbers. I don't think they're accurate.
I didn't notice any numbers that match the ones you quoted
while comparing the latest earnings releases from thqi and
thdo. To make the math easier I'm just comparing the fourth
calendar quarter of last year.
Here's the numbers
THQ THDO
cq4 '98 cq4 '99 % Changecq4 '98 cq4 '99
Revenues 111508 131697 18.11% 10271 41157 300.71%
Cost of Rev. 54811 62405 13.85% 3624 14360 296.25%
Roy. & Aband. 27026 19872 -26.47%
Prod. Dev.(r&d) 2298 3509 52.70% 7365 9341 26.83%
Sales & Mark, 9429 14629 55.15% 2981 12478 318.58%
JV Payments 0 6119 100%
G & A 3240 3912 20.74% 2256 3652 61.88%
Total Costs 96804 110446 14.09% 16226 39831 145.48%
Oper. Income 14704 21251 44.53% -5955 1326 100%
So after looking at these numbers do you still believe that
you can realistically compare the two companies? Not only
are the numbers drastically different but so are the
business models. Is that 6mm all paid to jakks? Will they
be paying more? What is the real profit margin on wwf?
Also, about thqi. Revenues up 18%, operating income up 44%
and abandonment down 26%. Seems the large increase is
operating income is in a large way due to the drop in
abandonment costs. Incidentally, if I looked at the numbers
right, capitalized software costs grew from 3mm in dec '98
to over 11mm in dec'99. That's more than a 200% increase.
Also, thq g&a costs are growing faster than revenues.
As far as mm and army men. You have tunnel vision in this
regard. You don't see the potential in hhbb? Batlle tanx
was successful on n64 and is coming to the psx soon. Heroes
is alive and well. I hope you don't group mm with crusaders
and heroes, they are completely different games. As are
many of the army men games.
It's nice to see there are still some non-believers, that
means there's still much room to go higher when more people
start opening their eyes. THDO did not just get a lucky hit
with Army Men. They are here to say. Take a look at the 2
year chart. THDO is in the process of being discovered. I
expect the impressive year over year stock appreciation to
continue for at least a few more years.
Perhaps I am confused? I guess we'll have to wait and see how things play out.
What's your point about wintergreen?
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| To: vc21 who wrote () | 3/12/2000 11:35:00 PM | | From: Schiz | | | |
Have you guys looked at this recently?
siliconinvestor.com
Does anyone have a good reason they think the leader over the past 2 years won't be the leader over the next 2?
THDO is moving up the npd charts. The movement over the past few weeks is just the beginning. Look for them to continue up the charts in the weeks to come.
Why am I the only one here that seems to see the potential thdo has to grow dramatically over the next several years?
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| To: Schiz who wrote (63) | 3/13/2000 1:16:00 AM | | From: Mahatmabenfoo | | | |
> leader over the past 2 years won't be the leader over the next 2?
A leader in... sales? stock price improvement? technology?
3DO's franchises are maybe a bit "long in the tooth", and past success is not an indicator of future success -- in games or any other hits-oriented business. It's just another game company, albeit one that found a second life after finally giving up on a proprietary platform, which was a gutsy strategy they maybe stuck with too long. Which I guess means that failure is not an indicator of future failure, either.
I'm not saying you're wrong -- just that it takes a lot more than a chart to convince me of a stock's (and company's) "future potential". I mean, all the chart does is say, in fancy way, that because it's going up it will go up. Which is true. Until it isn't.
- Charles |
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| To: Mahatmabenfoo who wrote (64) | 3/13/2000 8:33:00 AM | | From: Schiz | | | |
In the context of the post I was referring to stock appreciation. Although I think it's a pretty safe bet that they are also the leader in revenue growth as a percentage.
Keep an eye out. This quarter is shaping up to be really great. I realize it takes more than one good quarter to make a successful company but thdo has been improving for the last two years. This is a trend I expect to continue.
Keep an eye on the npd charts. |
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