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Technology Stocks EGRT - Egreetings.com

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To: Gary Korn who wrote (18)	12/18/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: neverenough	of 90

EGRT looks like an easy 60%! After the IPO they have 34,443,481 shares outstanding, at 10 9/16 it's Market Cap stands at 364M, a far cry less than the 1 billion that was paid for BlueMountain. IMO, EGRT deserves a MC of at least 600M, which gives us a price of 17. I got in at the close Friday at 10 5/8, 17 by years end should be no problem...

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To: neverenough who wrote (19)	12/18/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: Gordon Gekko	of 90

THE DAY AHEAD: EGreetings: IPO today, acquired tomorrow? On what is likely to be the last actual trading day of the IPO season, eGreetings Networks (Nasdaq: EGRT) is trying to slip one by investors with a business model that isn't likely to last long. No need to worry though, eGreetings probably won't make it six months before it's bought out. The time between an IPO and merger is getting shorter all the time. Yesmail.com (Nasdaq: YESM) goes public in September and is bought in December by CMGI (Nasdaq: CMGI), which incidentally has a habit of plucking young companies off the public markets. When you look at eGreetings regulatory filings you have to wonder why it even bothered with an IPO. Revenue for the nine months ending Sept. 30 were $1.5 million with a loss of $22 million. EGreetings gets most of its revenue from advertising and direct marketing and its largest advertiser just split (more on that later). EGreetings, which offers online greeting cards and plans to meld content with commerce and direct marketing, is offering 6 million shares priced at $10, the top of its $8 to $10 range. The lead underwriter is CS First Boston. EGreetings offers 5,000 digital greetings with graphics, animations and music that consumers can personalize and send for free. Sound familiar? It should because eGreetings is in the same business as Bluemountainarts.com, which was acquired by Excite@Home (Nasdaq: ATHM). If Bluemountainarts.com had to find a buyer as Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) and a host of others entered the greeting business, what makes eGreetings think it can compete? It can't compete and that's why it'll be gobbled up or broke before one of those sappy animated cards stops playing. The IPO is just an interim step for eGreetings. An acquisition is a wild card right now because eGreetings' largest shareholder Gibson is currently being acquired. We are taking a leap in figuring eGreetings will be acquired but we're not jumping the Grand Canyon here. Here's a likely scenario we cooked up: EGreetings relies on Gibson Greetings for about 36 percent of its content. American Greetings, Inc. in a deal announced in November, however, is acquiring Gibson. American Greetings also is the parent company of AmericanGreetings.com, which competes with eGreetings. Once American Greetings is done acquiring Gibson, American Greetings may decide it doesn't want to own shares of a competitor. AmerIcan Greetings could buy eGreetings outright or dish it off to another company. "As a competitor, American Greetings' interests may diverge from our interests, and it may take actions that would harm us competitively, despite its status as our largest stockholder," the company said in filings. And if American Greetings doesn't sell or acquire eGreetings, it's highly likely the company will need some company to rescue it. EGreetings said Excite@Home, which cut advertising ties to eGreetings in November, accounted for 40 percent of its already skimpy revenue for the nine months ending Sept. 30. "We do not anticipate receiving any future advertising revenues from Excite@Home," the company said. Ouch. So what company could rescue eGreetings? We know who the buyers won't be. Amazon.com, America Online (NYSE: AOL), Excite@Home, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) all offer digital greetings as part of a larger package or e-commerce deal. Hallmark and 123greetings.com are also competitors, but aren't likely to be interested. That leaves either a portal without greeting cards or a company with direct marketing skills that can turn eGreetings into a commerce doorway. Process of elimination leaves Lycos (Nasdaq: LCOS) or CMGI. Our bet would be CMGI. And why not -- CMGI is buying up everything else.

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To: Gordon Gekko who wrote (20)	12/20/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: blankmind	of 90

great article. pre-market bid 10 15/16 ask 11.

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To: blankmind who wrote (21)	12/20/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: Mark The Trader	of 90

This stock had so much activity on the sell side today and it held at $10 for a lot longer then I thought it should have. Its a dog but then every dog has its day , but I would not feel comfortable committing much money to it. Mark

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To: Mark The Trader who wrote (22)	12/20/1999 9:47:00 PM
From: HandsOn	of 90

I only have a small position but agree re Today. Either MM's accumulated higher shares first day or underwriters are supporting the stock. Either way I was glad to see it Today, website is impressive based on number of hits EGRT should be a winner when it gets discovered soon.

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To: HandsOn who wrote (23)	12/21/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Mark The Trader	of 90

Actually I was not paying real close attention to who was supporting the bid , I tend to think it would have been the Underwriters. I had Medscape a while back , averaged down on that dog and got out at almost break-even . When an IPO starts out like this it may need further selling before it trades up . Mark

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To: westpacific who wrote ()	12/22/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Bob Duncan	of 90

Kicking myself here for not doing more DD. This companys fundamentals are horrid. Praying for a buyout at this point. bob

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To: Bob Duncan who wrote (25)	12/23/1999 1:26:00 AM
From: Glen Arnelien	of 90

EGRT - 38% rise in daily visitors to 228,000/day! dailynews.yahoo.com "Further boosting the year's online Christmas frenzy, greeting card companies American Greetings Corp. (NYSE:AM - news) and Egreetings Network Inc. (NasdaqNM:EGRT - news) both saw a jump in daily traffic as folks opted for the quick and easy way to send friends and family holiday tidings. American Greetings' site (http://www.americangreetings.com) saw an 88-percent jump in average daily visitors topping 141,000 a day, while Egreetings (http://www.egreetings.com), the newly public electronic greeting card service, saw a 39-percent rise, raking in 228,000 Web surfers each day."

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To: Glen Arnelien who wrote (26)	12/23/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: blankmind	of 90

so does the rally continue for egrt and the shakeout end? amazed and happy to see 10 today.

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To: blankmind who wrote (27)	12/23/1999 7:57:00 PM
From: Jim B	of 90

wow.. great day.. wish I had gone ahead and bought this back in the low 8s today.. instead I was liquidating positions to move to all cash for the weekend.. congrats to those who got the bottom :) jim

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