From: Dennis Roth | 7/27/2007 7:54:53 PM | | | | No change to Neutral rating following 2Q 2007 results - Goldman Sachs - July 27, 2007
What's changed
Chevron reported adjusted 2Q 2007 EPS of $2.27, which was essentially in-line with the $2.30 First Call consensus estimate and our $2.35 projection. E&P earnings were slightly ahead of our expectation, US R&M in line, and international R&M slightly below though it is a very difficult segment to forecast on a quarterly basis. Reported E&P production growth in 2Q (including OSA volumes) was -2.1%, slightly below what we expected following Chevron's interim update earlier this month. Our full-year 2007E EPS estimate has been updated to $8.38 ($8.45 before) to reflect 2Q results. We made no other changes to our EPS forecasts.
Implications
There is no change to our fundamental outlook for Chevron following 2Q 2007 results. We view favorably the company's E&P project portfolio as detailed in our Top 170 projects report and also believe some of the recent steps to rationalize its R&M operations make sense. Chevron has a very strong balance sheet with which to return additional cash to shareholders. At the current time, we see similar upside to expected target prices for all three of the US-based super-cap oils, including Chevron, ConcooPhillips, and Exxon Mobil (all Neutral rated). Notwithstanding the sharp broad market correction this week, we continue to prefer higher-beta domestic integrated oil and refining companies given our bullish crude oil and refining margin outlook. Relative to years past where we favored either Exxon or Conoco over Chevron, we now see it as a much closer call.
Valuation
Chevron is trading right around our $85 unchanged price target. Our target price for Exxon Mobil is $83 and for Conoco is $80. All our 12-month target prices are based on asset value, P/E and cash flow valuation analyses.
Key risks
Key risk to our price targets is a sharp decline in the broad market indices like the S&P 500 and a sustained fall in commodity prices. |
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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (12) | 3/12/2008 9:43:57 AM | From: Dennis Roth | | | Chevron Corp. (CVX): Solid E&P outlook already reflected in shares; remains Neutral rated - Goldman Sachs - March 12, 2008
What's changed
Chevron hosted its annual analyst meeting on March 11, providing an update on its outlook and key initiatives.
Implications
We maintain our Neutral rating on shares of Chevron following today’s analyst meeting. While we came away incrementally more positive about the company’s upstream outlook, we believe the key question for Chevron remains whether 2008 will be the year the company finally returns to positive organic volume growth and 100%+ reserve replacement. We are modeling slightly positive E&P growth in 2008 followed by +3% growth in 2009, while also assuming over 100% organic reserve replacement for the next several years. However, after a prolonged period of disappointing E&P growth and lackluster reserve replacement consider, we recognize that our lowered expectations could still prove to be optimistic. While we continue to favor E&Ps and refiners within Energy, risk/reward for the integrated oils is beginning to look better, particularly since the group has lagged the recent strength in oil prices. Among super-cap oils we prefer ConocoPhillips (Neutral) given its less expensive valuation and Marathon Oil (Buy) among North American integrated oils owing to its significant leverage to our bullish refining outlook.
Valuation
We see 8% upside potential to our unchanged, $93 12-month target price, which is based on asset value, P/E and cash flow valuation analyses.
Key risks
Key risk is sustained lower commodity prices. |
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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (14) | 5/9/2008 11:24:12 AM | From: Dennis Roth | | | Chevron Corp. (CVX): Remains a Buy-rated favorite, as majors look very inexpensive - Goldman Sachs - May 02, 2008
What's changed
Chevron reported 1Q 2008 EPS of $2.48, just ahead of the $2.41 First Call consensus projection and essentially in line with our $2.50 forecast.
Implications
We reiterate our Buy rating on Chevron and continue to believe the super majors in general, and Chevron specifically, are very inexpensive relative to (1) the current price of oil, (2) our expectation for future oil price gains, and (3) the level of the S&P 500.
We believe that as the Street gains comfort that WTI oil prices will remain above $100/bbl, positive EPS revisions will drive the shares of major oil companies higher. We continue to believe the market is overly pessimistic that a combination of production sharing contract effects, higher costs, and weak downstream earnings will outweigh oil price gains for major oil companies. While we agree that the factors mentioned do offset a portion of any oil price gains, overall we see EPS rising for the major oils. Regarding Chevron specifically, we believe the company is getting closer to the long-delayed positive inflection point in E&P volumes. Our current forecasts include 2H 2008 volume growth of around +1% followed by +6% growth in 2009. While a particularly dramatic spike in oil could result in lower reported volumes relative to our current forecasts, most importantly we would expect any volume shortfall to be more than compensated for by the higher oil prices that drove the shortfall in the first place. Ultimately, higher profits should trump any volume offsets, so long as project execution is favorable as we expect.
Valuation
We see 24% total return upside to our unchanged $115, 12-month target price, which is based on asset value, P/E and cash flow valuation analyses.
Key risks
Key risk is sustained lower commodity prices. |
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From: Sr K | 2/26/2015 7:30:25 PM | | | | Sharon Stone Is Being Sued for Skipping an Anti-Chevron Protest
12:51 PM EST
And that's what Chevron did. "The fact that the Republic of Ecuador's PR firm is suing Sharon Stone for not participating in a government-sponsored anti-Chevron stunt is further evidence that this case is nothing but a fraud," company spokesman Morgan Crinklaw said in an e-mail. "From paid celebrities to bribed court officials to the ghostwritten judgment, the case against Chevron in Ecuador is a well-funded and manufactured extortion scheme."
bloomberg.com |
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From: Boca_PETE | 6/17/2016 3:19:00 PM | | | | Here's a good listener's summary of oil expert Charlie Maxwell's appearance on the radio this past weekend "Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Program" heard Sundays 4pm-7pm Eastern Time bobbrinker.com
"FRANKJ'S CHARLIE MAXWELL ON MONEYTALK SUMMARY
honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blogspot.com
Energy expert Charlie Maxwell (Remember him from the "Wall Street Week with Louis Ruckyser TV program) was Bob’s third hour guest on the June 12, 2016 edition of MoneyTalk. This honored guest’s last appearance was in June of 2015.
(Editorial note: He is one of my favorite guests, not only for his insights but because he speaks slowly, which makes note-taking easy.) Oil prices are still hampered by the slow recovery from the 2008 recession. Conservation measures have held down demand for oil too. But there are two big factors holding prices down now. One is the rivalry between the Saudi’s and the Iranians. The Iranians want to regain their world market share that existed before the sanctions were lifted so they are pumping to beat the band.
The Saudi’s are not about to allow their market to slip away so they’ve opened the spigots too. Their religious differences (Sunni vs Shia) are a contributing factor.
Charlie cited the success of fracking and horizontal drilling in the US and elsewhere as another major factor contributing to supply and helping to keep prices down.
There is a world surplus of oil today. Charlie led us through some numbers to illustrate his point. World production is 94 to 95 million barrels per day.We need about 2 million barrels to “run the system.”We are overproducing by about 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day.The big drop in rig count (producing rigs) is over and US production should stabilize at about 8 – 9 million barrels per day in the US.We’ll see rising prices and Charlie sees $48/barrel at the end of the year.Before the break, Bob and Charlie spent a little time on natural gas. Charlie pointed out that natural gas is stored in the ground until needed, then you open tap and send it into the pipeline. The fact that it is ready to go at the push of a button will slow the price recovery but he sees it going up from about $2.40 to 3.25 to 3.30 in couple years. He was quoting the price per one million Btu’s. (British thermal units, equal approximately to 1000 cubic feet of gas).
When we came back after the break the show was in progress and Bob was priming the pump (so to speak) with his oft-repeated speech about how little pushback there is against fracking and how much pushback we see against pipelines. Charlie does not envision great problems ahead for frackers. As he has said before, the states have passed some decent regulations on fracking and for the moment, the feds are holding off rushing out a bunch of rules. (I believe New York state is an exception to the rule. Cuomo the Younger simply banned fracking.) Glen from Iowa asked about “Hubbert’s Peak.” (This was the theory advanced by famous oil geologist M. King Hubbert who predicted that oil production would peak in the 1970’s and then begin to decline. ) Glen said “We blew through it.” Charlie explained that we delayed the peak, but it did not go away. Mankind will bring on the decline more so than nature because oil prices below $50 per barrel have caused cuts in exploration budgets. We’ll feel a tightening around 2020. He said it will be a “sad outcome,” but prices will come back strong.
The next caller was almost like a follow up question. Ed from Nevada said he thought there was 100 year’s worth of oil left. What happens then to all the products we make from oil? Charlie said we don’t have that long. We’re getting 40-50% of the oil out of the ground in a given field before the pressure lowers to the point where it cannot be extracted. In Russia they only get 26-28% out. We’ll need higher prices to extract more.
Charlie was sanguine about manufacturing products in the future that are now made from oil. Coal can be used and so can natural gas.
Casey from Illinois wanted to know when the price of oil drops, why doesn’t the price of a quart of oil drop? Charlie explained that the retail world of lubricants doesn’t operate with the same costs as the world market for those who buy oil for refining purposes.
Bill from Vancouver got a short geology lesson from Charlie when he asked whether the earth is still producing oil. The answer was no. 98% of oil comes from plant material and conditions to produce this were ideal eons ago when we had shallow seas, high temperatures, lots of rainfall and lots of sunshine. This led to abundant plant growth on land and in the seas which ultimately were deposited on the ocean floor and covered with sediment. We don’t have those conditions today.
Bob and Charlie closed it out with a review of hybrid and electric cars and other energy sources. Electric cars need longer range to gain more acceptance. Geo, wind and solar are coming on but it will take a long time (40-50 years) before they make significant contributions to the grid. Solar will eclipse wind. (Sorry).
Nuclear has a good future, but we better not build any plants where a tsunami can take them out. The advantage of nuclear is no toxic emissions." |
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From: Sr K | 8/8/2016 9:14:29 PM | | | | bloomberg.com
Chevron Wins Big in $9.5 Billion Oil Pollution Case. But It’s Not Over Yet
The lawyer for Ecuadorian victims fails to sway a U.S. court that he didn’t act illegally. Now, more appeals in the 23-year-old case.
Chevron couldn’t have won a more emphatic victory in its long-running Ecuadorian pollution case than Monday's ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York. A three-judge panel unanimously affirmed a trial court's determination that, in 2011, the lead attorney for some 30,000 Ecuadorians had won a $9.5 billion judgment against Chevron by means of bribery, coercion, and fraud.
The energy company will probably leverage the ruling as part of its continuing effort to avoid paying a dime on the verdict. Chevron lacks any property or assets in Ecuador, so it simply refused to pay the plaintiffs there. The Ecuadorians, meanwhile, have sought to enforce their award in Canada, where Chevron subsidiaries do have assets. Opposing enforcement there, Chevron will now cite the U.S. appeals court opinion as support for its argument that the Ecuadorian case was so shot through with fraud that it doesn't deserve respect anywhere.
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From: Sr K | 2/2/2019 5:17:13 PM | | | | First post since mine nearly 2.5 years ago, to state CHV announced Friday 1.95 vs. 1.87, for Q4, and a new no limited time stock buyback for $25,000,000,000.
I also saw XOM tax rate was down to around 32.5% from much higher last year. |
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From: Sr K | 4/12/2019 9:41:48 AM | | | | Chevron to Buy Anadarko Petroleum in $33 Billion Cash-and-Stock Deal
Anadarko fetches a 39% premium to its closing price on Thursday
By Updated April 12, 2019 9:18 a.m. ET
Chevron Corp. has agreed to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. in a $33 billion deal that expands its shale-drilling ambitions and places it just behind Exxon Mobil Corp. as one of the world’s largest publicly traded producers of oil and gas. |
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From: Sr K | 4/24/2019 9:20:48 AM | | | | 4/24/2019
Occidental offers $57 billion for Anadarko, topping Chevron
REUTERS - 44 MINUTES AGO |
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