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   Strategies & Market TrendsStrong Industry Groups - Strong Stocks


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To: Sam Raven who wrote (719)11/9/2001 1:36:42 AM
From: richardred
   of 1567
 
Sam:

I like to look for,(just like your subject board says strong industry groups)when conditions change. (Companies hitting new highs)Example- Defense companies when the event happened, and gold stocks. We are most likely in a recession, so I like groups that have proven over time to do well in a recession. (food & basic essentials). I'm also a volume watcher. I like to see when money flows into a stock on volume, and out. Block trades on up tick or down ticks. If your following them, you know what the average volume tends to be.

I also as you do, look at economic data. Retail Sales, Housing starts, durable goods, employment data, consumer price index. The index of leading economic indicators. If I remember right, 4 declines in a row, and it's an official recession. It's a lagging indicator, so I think economists don't commit themselves until it happens. Long ago, I used to look at the money supply M1 & M2, but now look at money flowing into mutual funds or out.

I haven't been college educated, Actually, I learned a trade (I'm a pressman). The Library was my place of study, looking over pieces of company reports,business news & data in print or person. I've been investing for 24 years now (started at 17) (now 41). You tend to develop some street smarts over this time period. I'm never afraid to go against the grain. This being analysts. I like to see what they are recommending & downgrading. As for specific stocks, I tend to pick each for different reasons. It might be earnings growth, takeover speculation, balance sheet, market share leadership,depressed market valuation,ect,ect.

I've learned, to be able to adjust to market conditions, you can't be afraid to take a profit instead of worrying how much you could have made. I like to get a profit locked up early on, so I have more leverage down the road if things get bad. I should also tell you I stay nearly 100% invested at all times. This makes me pay attention to what's going on. It leaves me at the mercy of the market, but also has me positioned when it's going up. This is why I have a diverse portfolio. A little bit of everything, but the $ allocation to specific stocks or peer groups is the most important for risk management. I also have long positions,and trading positions. Like my subject board says "I like to hear what everybody has to say, but I do what I think is right Myself" It's worked for me anyway.

I don't know if this give you anything new to look at, but I know the markets have changed so I need to be open to change to keep up, with the challenge.

"GOOD INVESTING TO YOU"

Rick

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (720)11/9/2001 1:46:01 AM
From: richardred
   of 1567
 
I've looked at STE. I used to own American Sterilizer, before they bought it out quite some time ago. IMO- A safer way to kill germs than Surbeam.

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To: richardred who wrote (723)11/9/2001 10:28:33 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
If I could carry back in time what I know now, and have another try at living my life, what would I do differently based on this information?

This has been one of my pet projects, keeping a list of things that folks have told me, and that I have take note of that would we could pass to a younger generation that still have time to learn from and profit from mistakes. One of this days I'm going to publish the list....

And what you wrote was like a window into someone's world of experience.....Thanks for taking the time to write in detail, you offer hope to younger people to get into the market in a time that they will look back at as one of the greatest opportunities to invest in their lifetime.

Thanks Richard,

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (722)11/9/2001 10:41:19 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
The key word I've mentioned the last few days has been oil. The two in the watchlist for today, APC an NOI had another good day. We traded XTO, both XTO and APC are two out of the 20 strong stocks we follow in our weekly newsletter.

Otherwise today, DUK alerted but that was about it from today's SI list. PEP was up but never alerted. STE is interesting if it can hold support at 23.

Sam
savvy-trader.com

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (725)11/10/2001 2:10:36 AM
From: richardred
   of 1567
 
Your welcome Sam: To me it's really satisfying to know you did your homework, and it paid off. I try and encourage other new investors to do the same when I can. Anybody can throw a dart, but I'll stick with knowing my target before I throw. The word Success has different interpretations by everyone. I tend not to think just monetary, but family life and seeing someone else you've know profit from something they learned from you. I do like to hear what everybody has to say, but I'm not one to suck it up, and offer nothing in return.

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/11/2001 11:02:40 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
One of the most valuable economic data releases has been the National Association of Purchasing Managers report. We have gleaned some very useful information from it for the last two years, that has allowed us to stay ahead of the street. This is something everyone has access to and is a handy tool to have in your investment toolbox.

From our weekly Growth Stock Journal 11/5/01:

"Lastly, Friday we get the Producer Price Index for October, economists are expecting the number to be down, with the prices paid component of the NAPM being down sharply I wouldn't be surprised to see a down PPI".

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/12/2001 3:08:17 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
The market internals turned down Friday after being mixed last Thursday. The screened stock ratio saw weakening volume in both up-trending as well as down-trending stocks at 7.3 to 3.3 favoring buying. Risk remains moderate.

The strong groups include biotechs, gaming, computer software, medical equipment, restaurants, select retail, and recently energy stocks. The number of restaurant stocks in the screening was a little surprising.

Longs to watch: APC, ARG, BVF, CBRL, FE, HP, HRB, PDS, TYC and YUM.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (729)11/12/2001 4:10:59 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Out of today's SI list we had CBRL and HRB alert. I like both of those charts coming back after having profit taking in previous days. Oil stocks seem as weak as any today. Restaurants as a group held up well, we watch PZZA too. Need to carry YUM another day.

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/12/2001 11:15:42 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
The market internals were mixed on Monday, which was an improvement over last Friday. The screened stock ratio reflected slower volume with both sides of the ratio declining at 6.6 to 1.5 favoring buying. Risk remains moderate. However, it is worth mentioning that even with the market selling off, the volume in the down-trending stocks was significantly weaker than the volume in the up-trending stocks, which is positive for tomorrow. Frankly, I liked how stocks traded today under the fear of another terrorist attack.
  
The strong groups include biotechs, gaming, computer software, medical equipment, restaurants and select retail. We'll also be keeping our eye on a few oil stocks.

Longs to watch: ACS, BSX, EDS, GTK, MEDI, MSCC, MYL, NETA, PBG and ROST.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/12/2001 11:40:53 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Now even the news sounds a bit positive, with more and more indications that the plane crash was an accident and with the Northern Alliance taking Kabul.... guess we'll see in the morning.

Sam

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