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   Strategies & Market TrendsStrong Industry Groups - Strong Stocks


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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/7/2001 12:11:26 AM
From: Sam Raven
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The market internals were strong Tuesday, as was the screened stock ratio at 16.6 to 1.8 favoring buying, the market risk remains low. However, we are back in the range were profit taking seems to come in, so a little caution in is order.

Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment, semiconductors and software remain strong sectors.

Longs to watch: AJG, APC, MRCY, MSCC, SYK, TJX and WLP.

Good Trading!!

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (707)11/7/2001 12:26:26 AM
From: Sam Raven
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In reviewing Tuesday...

My fear is that the Federal Reserve may over play interest rates when it is not at this point major factor in the slow economy, time and fiscal stimulus would help significantly more than the difference between 1/4 and 1/2. It was a tough call and I have to respect their decision.

The market moved nicely, especially that last hour, the stocks listed here yesterday also had a few nice plays out of those that alerted, and the others are worth watching another day.

ABI, ADP and GILD are still worth watching again. ADVP is a question, we'll watch it Wednesday in case it makes a comeback. APOL is one we watched for this move off support for a few days. MSCC did ok, not as good as I expected. It seems to be hitting resistance up here. Both SLM and TJX are stocks we have been tracking in our weekly Growth Stock Journal and have bounced off support.

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (709)11/7/2001 12:26:48 AM
From: richardred
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The 1/2 point helped, but more so the forward guidance. I think the market liked the interpretation by the Fed. that there is still room for more on top of this cut, if conditions warrant.

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To: richardred who wrote (712)11/7/2001 12:33:06 AM
From: Sam Raven
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Evening Richard,

It is kind'a scary that we have interest rates under the inflation rate, I don't think that will last long.

The part that interested me was the statement; "the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate." Consumers are key and fiscal stimulus may be of help.

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (713)11/7/2001 11:13:36 AM
From: richardred
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Sam: On lasting long, I would agree. It might seem scary here , but in Japan it's a normal coarse. It takes a lot of stimulus there for people and business to spend their money. IMO-not so much over here. I think the 0% interest rates by the big autos are seeing consumer interest. Also refinancing and home equity loans for durable goods could help our economy. The statement "the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable" worries me without a tax incentive package (accelerated depreciation)on capital equipment for business. IMO-the new spending can lead to productivity growth. This by the new equipment replacing less inefficient equipment, using less people. Without a business incentive of some kind. I see business delaying or spending less. We still also have the worry that another event,here or someplace (outside the U.S.)might destroy consumer confidence here and abroad.

Richardred

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To: richardred who wrote (714)11/7/2001 5:20:25 PM
From: Sam Raven
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I wonder if we are getting acclimated to the terrorist fears...I was thinking that when/if we get struck again the market will drop then recover as the fear becomes more manageable and people begin to wonder if the last one...is the last one....each time.

If the market climbs a wall of worry, it has a big wall <g>

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (710)11/7/2001 5:26:14 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Things started slow, went hot with most alerted then, got cold....except for both energy stocks we watched today...and we traded neither. MRCY was my trade/loss on the day today... May try it again tomorrow.

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/8/2001 12:12:25 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Despite the weak close Wednesday, the market internals continue to look strong. The screened stock ratio did weaken some, but at 13.1 to 3.8 favoring buying, it still looks good. But because the direction of the ratio reversed, I'd estimate risk has raised a notch to moderate. Also, I'm somewhat concerned at how much the companies rotated names in the screening, you notice there are very few repeats from yesterday.

The strong groups don't change fast, so they remain as they have the last few days. Energy stocks showed up in large numbers when I ran the screening and are worth keeping an eye on today.

Longs to watch: ARXX, BJ, BOBJ, CTX, CYTC, LLL, NE, PDS, STE and TOO.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (715)11/8/2001 12:16:26 AM
From: richardred
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It seems to be that way. Some short sellers are getting a little nervous. The market is supposed to be going down because we are in a so called recession, and in a war to boot. Earnings aren't great, sales are down or stagnant for the most part, and defense stock are retreating some also. When numbers are down, but stocks in general are moving higher. Its comes down to some plain old street smarts. That's why I have the most respect for investors who can make money in a down market. IMO- Its all about adjusting to market conditions.

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To: richardred who wrote (718)11/8/2001 8:29:04 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Richard,

>>IMO- Its all about adjusting to market conditions.<<

True.....what tools do you find most valuable to gauge when and where conditions have changed?

I access economic data, and go by the balance of buyers and sellers of my screenings, but I'm always open to new tools you might have?

Sam

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