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   Strategies & Market TrendsStrong Industry Groups - Strong Stocks


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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/2/2001 12:23:11 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
The market internals were mixed Thursday, one of those days where both new highs and new lows increased in the NYSE. The screened stock ratio weakened to where volume was equal between up trending stocks and down trending stocks, at 5.0 to 5.0 the market risk remains moderate, however, due to both the screened stock ratio and the likely profit taking off Thursday's gains, I'd be a little cautious.
  
Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment and software remain strong sectors, technology stocks seem are making more and more gains on other sectors.

Longs to watch: APOL, ATK, APC, DRIV, DLX, MRCY, SYK and TTWO.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/5/2001 4:24:31 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Long weekend....but should be an interesting week.

The market internals were mixed again on Friday, but the screened stock ratio went positive at 7.7 to 3.2 favoring buying, the market risk drops back to low.

Again, Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment and software remain strong sectors.

Longs to watch: ADP, APOL, CPRT, FE, GD, GDT, HCC, ITT, PBG and SLM.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (704)11/5/2001 7:51:12 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
It wasn't hard to find a winner today, ADP, APOL, FE, GDT, ITT, PBG and SLM all alerted and look good. GD was the only one that alerted and looks iffy in the list, and it may get support near Friday's low and be worth a look then.

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/5/2001 7:58:19 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
My thoughts on tomorrow's Fed meeting:

Traders, markets and the economy face another meeting of the Federal Reserve this week. And, again the market and most economists are predicting another 1/2 point rate cut putting interest rates at 2%.

Yet again, I'll play the odd man out. Even though "they" say the Federal Reserve has been afraid to "disappoint" the markets, and the market is saying 1/2 point, I think a 1/4 point cut makes more sense. Frankly, I believe the same arguments apply as the last Federal Reserve meeting.

An extra 1/4 point does not add that much additional benefit, especially after having such a long series of cuts, yet it reduces the Federal Reserves future options. Already the Federal Reserve is pushing on a string waiting for previous rate cuts to work their magic. In the meantime what is needed is more fiscal stimulus. There has never been a more appropriate time to give the taxpayers a rebate, even if just $100 dollars, before Christmas would provide consumers and businesses a much needed financial and psychological boost.

The Federal Reserve is feeling unusually high pressure to revive growth, and many folks adding to the pressure seem to think we should see at least 1/2 point. Additionally, there is no inflation and energy prices are dropping, so inflation concerns as a reason to slow rate cuts will not be looked upon as a reasonable excuse.

But as the Fed may have overdone the rate increase two years ago, they may be in position having to sharply increase the rates when the economy turns back up, after all, interest rates are already below the rate of inflation. That effect on sentiment will be a larger blow than only 1/4 point cut.

So I'm hoping Chairman Greenspan, takes a conservative approach on interest rates, and promotes some Christmas shopping in the form of a tax rebate.

Expect to hear the results of the Feds deliberations Tuesday at 2.


Sam

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/5/2001 10:20:07 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
After the close today, better than expected earnings were released from ADVP, CEPH and CSCO. All traded higher in the after market and should help give the market a boost tomorrow.

The market internals were back to positive, and the screened stock ratio was very strong at 11.6 to 2.3 favoring buying, the market risk remains low. 

Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment, semiconductors and software remain strong sectors. Technology was strong Monday, and after the CSCO earnings report it should be a strong group again today.

Be careful about the volatility that comes with Fed meetings, best to be out of positions that you are close to stopping out of anyway.

Longs to watch: ABI, ADP, ADVP, APOL, GILD, MSCC, SLM and TJX.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (706)11/6/2001 12:29:51 AM
From: richardred
   of 1567
 
Sam: I agree a 1/4 point makes more sense. There is still time for others. IMO- It might disappoint at first, but the market will get over it. A 1/2 might also signal an end to the cuts, and also be regarded as negative. It takes a long time anyway for a cut to signal economic expansion. IMO-We are just at the start of an official recession. I just want to get over a single dip. a double dip will be the next worry when it's official were in one.

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To: richardred who wrote (708)11/6/2001 3:20:02 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Well, a 1/2 point. I'm going to really start worrying when we go the other way...<g>

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/7/2001 12:11:26 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
The market internals were strong Tuesday, as was the screened stock ratio at 16.6 to 1.8 favoring buying, the market risk remains low. However, we are back in the range were profit taking seems to come in, so a little caution in is order.

Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment, semiconductors and software remain strong sectors.

Longs to watch: AJG, APC, MRCY, MSCC, SYK, TJX and WLP.

Good Trading!!

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (707)11/7/2001 12:26:26 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
In reviewing Tuesday...

My fear is that the Federal Reserve may over play interest rates when it is not at this point major factor in the slow economy, time and fiscal stimulus would help significantly more than the difference between 1/4 and 1/2. It was a tough call and I have to respect their decision.

The market moved nicely, especially that last hour, the stocks listed here yesterday also had a few nice plays out of those that alerted, and the others are worth watching another day.

ABI, ADP and GILD are still worth watching again. ADVP is a question, we'll watch it Wednesday in case it makes a comeback. APOL is one we watched for this move off support for a few days. MSCC did ok, not as good as I expected. It seems to be hitting resistance up here. Both SLM and TJX are stocks we have been tracking in our weekly Growth Stock Journal and have bounced off support.

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (709)11/7/2001 12:26:48 AM
From: richardred
   of 1567
 
The 1/2 point helped, but more so the forward guidance. I think the market liked the interpretation by the Fed. that there is still room for more on top of this cut, if conditions warrant.

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